Weekly recap · June 12, 2026
US on defense, Europe on offense: luxury leads
7 indices in buy · 11 new Buy signals · Focus on Cons. Staples (US) and Personal & Household (EU) · Volatility easing
01
The week in view
All 7 of our benchmark indices remain in buy mode, but the picture is mature rather than euphoric: internal momentum has cooled almost everywhere and several markets are working just below their highs. The broad backdrop stays supportive — volatility has receded and market breadth has recovered — yet the week has a defensive flavour: within equities money has shifted toward the steadier sectors, while gold, oil and shipping rates sit in critical territory. This is rotation, not risk-off.
02
Macro regime
market contextRisk-On
Overall supportive macro: volatility has settled and bond markets are calm, the dollar is steady, but commodities and energy are pulling back sharply.
VIX
Neutral
MOVE
Favorable
DXY
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
03
Main indices
7 Broad ETFsUS markets remain the strongest, with Russell small caps now brushing their highs and the Nasdaq still full of structure; the S&P holds but with the weakest push of the group. Europe looks more tired: Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and London keep their buy signal but with internal strength worn thin — trades to manage, not to chase.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Buy · open›
The S&P 500 has been in buy mode for 9 weeks and the weekly signal still holds, but it is the most mature read of the group: Signal Strength has fallen to 7 out of 100, a sign that internal thrust is nearly spent. Price is working a hair below record highs and two of our model's three targets have already been reached. It holds, but this is no time to chase: a trade to manage with discipline.
Signal Strength7 / 100
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ)Buy · open›
The Nasdaq 100 has been buying for 8 weeks with a medium Signal Strength of 38 out of 100: livelier than the S&P but cooling. The index keeps full structure and sits less than 4% below its highs, yet momentum is fading and the model's first target is already behind it. Tech leadership has paused: the signal holds, the thrust needs watching.
Signal Strength38 / 100
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Buy · open›
The Russell 2000 has been buying for 9 weeks and is the closest to its highs of all, less than 1% away. Signal Strength is medium at 38 out of 100, and two of the three targets have already been hit: the weekly structure is full, the moving averages aligned. Small caps remain the most offensive face of the US market, but with two thirds of the model's path already covered, management matters more than enthusiasm.
Signal Strength38 / 100
Multi Units France Sicav (CAC)Buy · open›
The CAC 40 has been buying for 9 weeks but is among the weakest internally: Signal Strength has dropped to 11 out of 100 and our model advises against fresh entries. Price is just over 1% below the highs and none of the targets has yet been touched. It is the portrait of a trade under observation: to accompany with caution, not to add to.
Signal Strength11 / 100
Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc (DAX)Buy · open›
The DAX has been buying for 8 weeks, with a weak Signal Strength of 11 out of 100 and a confirmation week that closed lower. Structure holds and price stays about 4% below the highs, but the picture is one of a mature advance: our model suggests managing what exists, not adding. Industrials, financials and technology account for much of the index.
Signal Strength11 / 100
Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF (MIB)Buy · open›
The FTSE MIB has been buying for 9 weeks, but it is the index with the most exhausted momentum: Signal Strength is at 0 out of 100 and all three of the model's targets have already been reached. Structure is still full, yet the thrust that supported it appears spent. A trade that has run to the end of its natural course: discipline points to an orderly exit, not a fresh push.
Signal Strength0 / 100
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (ISF)Buy · open›
The FTSE 100 has been buying for 9 weeks and holds its weekly structure, but signs of fatigue are piling up: Signal Strength is low at 11 out of 100, the long-term filter is unfavourable and the daily picture is cooler, with price inside the equilibrium cloud. It is a running trade to accompany with caution: it holds, but asks for attention rather than additions.
Signal Strength11 / 100
04
Sector rotation
US · EuropeIn the US the defensive sectors lead — consumer staples, real estate and financials at the front — while technology, the long-standing leader, takes a breather and sits at the bottom of the weekly table alongside energy. In Europe the picture is more cyclical: personal and luxury goods pull ahead, followed by banks, with oil and gas trailing. Two geographies, two speeds: caution across the Atlantic, broader participation on the Continent.
US sectors
XLP›
State Street Consumer Staples
rising · +3.91%
XLRE›
State Street Real Estate Selec
rising · +2.32%
XLF›
State Street Financial Select
rising · +1.84%
XLB›
State Street Materials Select
rising · +1.50%
XLU›
State Street Utilities Select
rising · +1.11%
XLI›
State Street Industrial Select
rising · +0.32%
XLC›
State Street Communication Ser
falling · -1.01%
XLE›
State Street Energy Select Sec
falling · -1.90%
XLK›
State Street Technology Select
falling · -2.16%
European sectors
EXH7›
EXH7
rising · +6.06%
EXV1›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks
rising · +2.55%
EXV4›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Healt
rising · +1.82%
EXV3›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Techn
rising · +1.66%
EXH9›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utili
rising · +1.59%
EXV2›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telec
rising · +0.93%
EXH4›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Indus
falling · -1.16%
EXHG›
EXHG
falling · -1.19%
EXH1›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil &
falling · -1.24%
05
Confirmed Buy signals
at the confirmation weekFive US stocks have passed the first test: the buy signal that started the week before closed its confirmation week in positive territory. For our method that detail matters, because a signal that holds its first check rests on firmer ground than one just born. The group is mixed, and that is the interesting part: two high-volatility, high-thrust names like AMC and Rivian, cruise operator Norwegian Cruise Line, but also two steadier, quieter profiles such as Danaher in healthcare and Wells Fargo among financials. From Europe, this week, no confirmations: the Continent's new signals are mostly just out of the gate and still have their first test ahead. It is worth reading the individual cards to see which of these confirmations rest on genuinely orderly structure and which live mainly on momentum — the choice, as always, stays with the reader.
1
AMC
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Class A
Strength 87
›
2
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A
Strength 86
›
3
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Strength 81
›
4
DHR
Danaher Corporation
Strength 59
›
5
WFC
Wells Fargo & Co
Strength 55
›
None this week
06
Ranker rankings
Top by Signal StrengthAmong the fresh opportunities two cruise names stand out, Carnival and Royal Caribbean, topping the US new-signal table with matching intensity; in Europe it is luxury that catches the eye, with Kering leading the new signals. On the already-running side, tech names like Fortinet and AMD remain very strong. It is worth opening the individual cards: that is where each signal tells its own story, with levels, timing and management discipline.
1
CCL
Carnival Corporation
Strength 72
›
2
RCL
Royal Caribbean Group
Strength 72
›
3
AMGN
Amgen Inc.
Strength 50
›
4
BAC
Bank of America Corp
Strength 43
›
5
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
Strength 38
›
1
FTNT
Fortinet, Inc.
Strength 87
›
2
ROKU
Roku Inc
Strength 86
›
3
SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
Strength 87
›
4
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Strength 87
›
5
OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc. Class A
Strength 87
›
See all 145 →
1
XLC
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF
Strength 93
›
2
LI
Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A
Strength 84
›
3
BIDU
Baidu, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A
Strength 82
›
4
NFLX
Netflix, Inc.
Strength 82
›
5
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
Strength 82
›
See all 114 →
1
KER
Kering SA
Strength 75
›
2
MC
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE
Strength 59
›
3
RACE
Ferrari NV
Strength 59
›
4
UNI
UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI SPA
Strength 52
›
5
BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
Strength 47
›
See all 6 →
1
DLY_IFX
Infineon Technologies AG
Strength 89
›
2
DLY_0V1L
International Petroleum Corp. (British Columbia)
Strength 87
›
3
BAMI
Banco BPM SpA
Strength 83
›
4
BC
Brunello Cucinelli S.p.A.
Strength 83
›
5
BMPS
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.
Strength 83
›
See all 58 →
1
CPR
Davide Campari-Milano N.V.
Strength 88
›
2
INW
Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane S.p.A.
Strength 88
›
3
DLY_BMW
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
Strength 83
›
4
LR
Legrand SA
Strength 79
›
5
DSY
Dassault Systemes SE
Strength 78
›
See all 52 →
Methodology note — Nothing written here constitutes financial advice, a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments, or any kind of recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss; the user acts under their own responsibility. Signal Strength is an internal analytical framework used only to rank relative technical quality within the basket. © Fabio Gentili.