> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://aitrading67.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Oil at $100: two central banks turn, and the market sells the good numbers too - URL: https://aitrading67.com/en/oil-central-banks-sell-the-news/ - Published: 2026-07-24T08:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-10T09:54:27.000Z - Description: The US-Iran ceasefire collapses, oil heads for $100 and two central banks turn on the same day. Tesla and STMicroelectronics collapse on results, defence flies on record backlogs and UniCredit falls on its best half-year ever. Technical analysis on the stocks we follow. - Author: Fabio Gentili - Tags: observatory, trading, lang-en, #titolo-nel-corpo World Observatory · The Session # Oil at $100: two central banks turn, and the market sells the good numbers too 24 July 2026 AiTrading67 · Trade Desk Osservatorio Markets Some days the market falls and nothing has really happened. Other days it falls because the ground underneath has shifted. Thursday 23 July was the second kind: the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire pushed oil towards $100 a barrel, and within hours **two central banks turned on the same day for the same reason**. The Federal Reserve moved to a 78-82% implied probability of a September hike, and the European Central Bank, while holding rates, explicitly opened the door to the same move. Forty-eight hours earlier that American probability sat between 55% and 60%, and the debate was about when the next *cut* would arrive. Beneath that shift, the session produced something that matters more than any index level: **companies that beat estimates were sold almost as hard as those that missed**. Below are the fronts of the day, stock by stock, with our model's stance and the technical analysis behind it. Every name links to its most recent published analysis. The news that moved our stocks 🛢️ RATES The ground that moved Oil rewrites monetary policy on two continents The US-Iran ceasefire collapsed: a thirteenth consecutive night of strikes on Tehran, the first Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, Revolutionary Guards detaining tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the suspension of Caspian Pipeline Consortium loadings, which alone removes 80% of Kazakh exports. Brent and WTI both gained more than 6% in a single session, with Brent heading towards $100. What separates this from the rallies of previous weeks is its nature: this is not a risk premium, it is a physical supply problem. Ships halted, a pipeline that stops loading, shipping lanes that turn dangerous. An inflation path that was cooling thanks to energy revealed itself for what it was — fragile. The consequence landed on two continents the same afternoon. In the United States the probability of a September Federal Reserve hike rose to 78-82%, helped by jobless claims at their lowest since 1969: a labour market still running hot removes the central bank's excuse to stand still. In Europe the ECB held rates as expected, but its president explicitly cited oil-driven inflation risks and left September open. On crude, our names were already on the right side: [BP](https://aitrading67.com/en/bp-stock-signals/)Long and [Shell](https://aitrading67.com/en/shell-stock-signals/)Long closed higher in London, among the few sectors in the green across Europe, while [TotalEnergies](https://aitrading67.com/en/totalenergies-stock-signals/)Short more than doubled quarterly net profit to €4.7bn on an average barrel price up more than 50% year on year, also raising its interim dividend. **How I read it**Oil is the variable driving everything else today, and our technical analysis on energy was already positioned before it became the headline. Right place, right time — with the caveat that it is also the most crowded one. Our system · [BP](https://aitrading67.com/en/bp-stock-signals/) **long** · [Shell](https://aitrading67.com/en/shell-stock-signals/) **long** · [TotalEnergies](https://aitrading67.com/en/totalenergies-stock-signals/) **short** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 🇺🇸 EARNINGS The story of the day When beating estimates is no longer enough [Texas Instruments](https://aitrading67.com/en/texas-instruments-stock-signals/)Long reported earnings and revenue above expectations, raised guidance for the current quarter and picked up price-target upgrades from three brokers. It closed down 3.1%. [ServiceNow](https://aitrading67.com/en/servicenow-stock-signals/)Short opened up as much as 7% after a quarter with revenue growing 24% and a raised outlook, then reversed completely and finished down 3.7%. The reason is the same one that moved rates. When the cost of money can rise, the multiple investors will pay for future earnings compresses, and the stocks that live on future growth pay first, regardless of how good the quarter just closed actually was. It is a mechanism, not a mood, and that is why it deserves to be taken seriously. [Tesla](https://aitrading67.com/en/tesla-stock-signals/)Short was the collapse of the day, down more than 14%: a revenue beat at $28.24bn with record deliveries, but earnings per share of $0.33 against $0.51 expected and an operating margin down to 1.4%. A wave of price-target cuts followed the next morning. [Alphabet](https://aitrading67.com/en/alphabet-stock-signals/)Short extended its roughly 7% decline from the previous evening: revenue up 24% and cloud up 81%, but 2026 capital expenditure raised to $195-205bn and the first negative quarterly free cash flow in its history. The AI-capex fear spread across the group. [Amazon](https://aitrading67.com/en/amazon-stock-signals/)Short fell 4.6%, though for a reason of its own — a US Senate small business committee inquiry into a possible Chinese influence channel on its marketplace. [Meta](https://aitrading67.com/en/meta-platforms-stock-signals/)Long and [Microsoft](https://aitrading67.com/en/microsoft-stock-signals/)Short fell on pure sector sympathy, with no negative company news, and [Apple](https://aitrading67.com/en/apple-stock-signals/)Long limited its decline to 1.3%. Two exceptions capture the day's logic better than any average. [Micron](https://aitrading67.com/en/micron-technology-stock-signals/)Short rose 3.2%, the only large semiconductor name in the green, because the capital expenditure increases announced by Alphabet and Tesla are its revenue. And [Intel](https://aitrading67.com/en/intel-stock-signals/)Short, dragged lower during the session, jumped as much as 9% after hours when its numbers arrived: an earnings beat, $16.1bn in revenue and a data centre division growing 59%. **How I read it**This is the operating lesson of the week: in this phase a good quarter does not protect you. For anyone running a swing trading strategy, on horizons measured in weeks, buying on the eve of results means betting twice — on the numbers, and on the reaction to them. Our system · [Texas Instruments](https://aitrading67.com/en/texas-instruments-stock-signals/) **long** · [ServiceNow](https://aitrading67.com/en/servicenow-stock-signals/) **short** · [Tesla](https://aitrading67.com/en/tesla-stock-signals/) **short** · [Alphabet](https://aitrading67.com/en/alphabet-stock-signals/) **short** · [Amazon](https://aitrading67.com/en/amazon-stock-signals/) **short** · [Meta](https://aitrading67.com/en/meta-platforms-stock-signals/) **long** · [Microsoft](https://aitrading67.com/en/microsoft-stock-signals/) **short** · [Apple](https://aitrading67.com/en/apple-stock-signals/) **long** · [Micron](https://aitrading67.com/en/micron-technology-stock-signals/) **short** · [Intel](https://aitrading67.com/en/intel-stock-signals/) **short** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 🛡️ DEFENCE The counter-move Defence flies, and not out of fear [Lockheed Martin](https://aitrading67.com/en/lockheed-martin-stock-signals/)Short jumped more than 10% after a quarter well above expectations — earnings per share of $7.94 against $7.23 expected, revenue of $20.1bn up 11% — with full-year guidance raised across the board and a record backlog of $230.4bn, up 38% year on year, including a $35bn missile-defence contract. [RTX](https://aitrading67.com/en/rtx-stock-signals/)Long followed the same script, gaining around 7% on a $289bn backlog and raised guidance. [Honeywell](https://aitrading67.com/en/honeywell-international-stock-signals/)Short, in its first quarter as a standalone company, rose 4.7%, and [GE Vernova](https://aitrading67.com/en/ge-vernova-stock-signals/)Long rebounded more than 4%, recovering part of the previous day's fall, with orders up 88% in its electrification division. Among industrials, [CSX](https://aitrading67.com/en/csx-stock-signals/)Long gained almost 6% on record quarterly revenue. Reading the charts alone, that rally looks like a classic defensive rotation: money fleeing growth and sheltering in the boring sectors. The news says otherwise. Lockheed and RTX rose on results above expectations and order books that geopolitics is genuinely filling. It is the rare case where the same news that unsettles the whole market feeds one sector's earnings. **How I read it**This deserves saying plainly, because it matters more than a flattering scorecard: on Lockheed and Honeywell our model is still short, because the weekly signal has not turned. One session, however violent, does not flip a weekly signal, and buying the day after a 10% jump is chasing. The correct reading is to put them on watch and wait for the weekly to align, or for a pullback. Our system · [Lockheed Martin](https://aitrading67.com/en/lockheed-martin-stock-signals/) **short** · [RTX](https://aitrading67.com/en/rtx-stock-signals/) **long** · [Honeywell](https://aitrading67.com/en/honeywell-international-stock-signals/) **short** · [GE Vernova](https://aitrading67.com/en/ge-vernova-stock-signals/) **long** · [CSX](https://aitrading67.com/en/csx-stock-signals/) **long** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 🇮🇹 MILAN The Italian front Milan pays the steepest bill in Europe Milan closed down 2.8%, the worst European index of the day, dragged by three heavyweight names and by a single lesson repeated three times. [STMicroelectronics](https://aitrading67.com/en/stmicroelectronics-stock-signals/)Short was the harshest case, falling between 15% and 18%. Yet the quarter itself was not bad: the company returned to profit with $222m against a $97m loss a year earlier, on revenue up 26%. What sank the stock was a gross margin below consensus and, above all, guidance for the current quarter that landed below expectations. The market punished the outlook, not the result. The move spread by contagion to [Infineon](https://aitrading67.com/en/infineon-technologies-stock-signals/)Short, down more than 6% with no news of its own. [UniCredit](https://aitrading67.com/en/unicredit-stock-signals/)Long published the strongest half-year in its history — net interest and fee income of €6.52bn above consensus, quarterly net profit of €2.91bn, full-year profit guidance revised from «at least €11bn» to «well above €11bn» — and closed down 4.6%. That is selling the news after a long rally. On Commerzbank, the chief executive is still waiting for supervisory approval to close by year-end; on Generali he stayed deliberately vague. [Moncler](https://aitrading67.com/en/moncler-stock-signals/)Short lost almost 8% despite half-year revenue up 5% — 9% at constant currency — and net profit rising to €164.7m from €153.5m. Here too the reaction was about the outlook, and the semiconductor collapse dragged the whole Italian luxury complex with it. **How I read it**The technical analysis on UniCredit is worth a pause: the daily signal has turned to sell, but the weekly and monthly still hold the buy, and the trade remains well in profit from its June entry. When a trade sits at that level on the eve of results, the question is not whether to add: it is whether protection is already in the right place. Our system · [STMicroelectronics](https://aitrading67.com/en/stmicroelectronics-stock-signals/) **short** · [Infineon](https://aitrading67.com/en/infineon-technologies-stock-signals/) **short** · [UniCredit](https://aitrading67.com/en/unicredit-stock-signals/) **long** · [Moncler](https://aitrading67.com/en/moncler-stock-signals/) **short** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 🇪🇺 EUROPE The rest of the continent Airbus and the French banks hold Europe up In Paris the stock of the day was [Airbus](https://aitrading67.com/en/airbus-stock-signals/)Long, up almost 8% after confirming full-year guidance and presenting new profitability targets for 2029, with adjusted operating income expected between €12bn and €13bn, alongside a €5bn buyback over three years. It is the other face of defence: long, visible orders — precisely what the market buys when rates cast doubt on everything else. [BNP Paribas](https://aitrading67.com/en/bnp-paribas-stock-signals/)Long reported net profit up 33% to €4.3bn, with capital already at its 2027 target level. In Germany [SAP](https://aitrading67.com/en/sap-stock-signals/)Short closed a quarter with revenue up 9% and cloud up 22%, raising full-year operating profit guidance, although earnings per share came in below consensus: the results were released after the Frankfurt close, so the full reaction will only show in the following session. In London, alongside the oil majors, the banks moved higher — [Barclays](https://aitrading67.com/en/barclays-stock-signals/)Long and [Lloyds](https://aitrading67.com/en/lloyds-banking-stock-signals/)Long between 1% and 2% — ahead of a week of results that involves all of them. With no company news of their own: this is positioning before the numbers. Our system · [Airbus](https://aitrading67.com/en/airbus-stock-signals/) **long** · [BNP Paribas](https://aitrading67.com/en/bnp-paribas-stock-signals/) **long** · [SAP](https://aitrading67.com/en/sap-stock-signals/) **short** · [Barclays](https://aitrading67.com/en/barclays-stock-signals/) **long** · [Lloyds](https://aitrading67.com/en/lloyds-banking-stock-signals/) **long** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. ₿ RISK Crypto and growth Bitcoin falls, the miners rise: a divergence with an explanation Bitcoin dropped below $65,000 after threats of a large-scale strike on Iran, hitting its most direct proxies: [Coinbase](https://aitrading67.com/en/coinbase-global-stock-signals/)Short fell around 3% and [Strategy](https://aitrading67.com/en/strategy-stock-signals/)Short 6.4%. On the same day, however, the entire mining complex closed green: [Cipher](https://aitrading67.com/en/cipher-digital-stock-signals/)Short up more than 5%, [MARA](https://aitrading67.com/en/mara-stock-signals/)Short and [TeraWulf](https://aitrading67.com/en/terawulf-stock-signals/)Short around 3%, [Riot](https://aitrading67.com/en/riot-platforms-stock-signals/)Short and [CleanSpark](https://aitrading67.com/en/cleanspark-stock-signals/)Short around 2%, with only [IREN](https://aitrading67.com/en/iren-stock-signals/)Short lower on profit-taking after the previous days' rally. The driver was a new sector coverage launch from a major investment bank with a positive rating, reclassifying them not as Bitcoin bets but as infrastructure for artificial intelligence and high-performance data centres. A reclassification thesis overpowered the move in the underlying: that is rare, and worth noting. Across the rest of high-multiple growth the session was indiscriminate selling: [Shopify](https://aitrading67.com/en/shopify-stock-signals/)Long lost around 5%, [Unity](https://aitrading67.com/en/unity-software-stock-signals/)Long 4.6%, [Trade Desk](https://aitrading67.com/en/trade-desk-stock-signals/)Short 4.5%, [Roblox](https://aitrading67.com/en/roblox-stock-signals/)Long 4.2% and [AppLovin](https://aitrading67.com/en/applovin-stock-signals/)Short 3.3%, none of them on a catalyst of their own. [Palantir](https://aitrading67.com/en/palantir-technologies-stock-signals/)Short, which had lost more than 6% the day before between a UK regulator review and an emerging open-source competitor, instead almost stabilised. **How I read it**In the price action of these names the underlying money flow is still absent: these are correlation moves, without weekly roots. Our system · [Coinbase](https://aitrading67.com/en/coinbase-global-stock-signals/) **short** · [Strategy](https://aitrading67.com/en/strategy-stock-signals/) **short** · [Cipher](https://aitrading67.com/en/cipher-digital-stock-signals/) **short** · [MARA](https://aitrading67.com/en/mara-stock-signals/) **short** · [TeraWulf](https://aitrading67.com/en/terawulf-stock-signals/) **short** · [Riot](https://aitrading67.com/en/riot-platforms-stock-signals/) **short** · [CleanSpark](https://aitrading67.com/en/cleanspark-stock-signals/) **short** · [IREN](https://aitrading67.com/en/iren-stock-signals/) **short** · [Shopify](https://aitrading67.com/en/shopify-stock-signals/) **long** · [Unity](https://aitrading67.com/en/unity-software-stock-signals/) **long** · [Trade Desk](https://aitrading67.com/en/trade-desk-stock-signals/) **short** · [Roblox](https://aitrading67.com/en/roblox-stock-signals/) **long** · [AppLovin](https://aitrading67.com/en/applovin-stock-signals/) **short** · [Palantir](https://aitrading67.com/en/palantir-technologies-stock-signals/) **short** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 🌏 CHINA Asia and the consumer Alibaba under investigation, the US consumer under pressure [Alibaba](https://aitrading67.com/en/alibaba-stock-signals/)Long lost 2.1% after two new securities class action investigations were announced by American law firms, following the European Union's fine on AliExpress. The rest of the Chinese basket was mixed: [Baidu](https://aitrading67.com/en/baidu-stock-signals/)Short barely moved as it pursues a dual-primary listing in Hong Kong, [XPeng](https://aitrading67.com/en/xpeng-stock-signals/)Short fell 2% and [Li Auto](https://aitrading67.com/en/li-auto-stock-signals/)Short rose 2% against the tide. On the American consumer, two different stories with the same sign. [Nike](https://aitrading67.com/en/nike-stock-signals/)Short fell almost 3%, extending the pressure that began with the announcement that from January 2027 it will end online wholesale distribution agreements in mainland China to concentrate on official digital channels only. [Disney](https://aitrading67.com/en/walt-disney-stock-signals/)Short lost more than 3% on concerns about slowing attendance at its theme parks and the cost of its sports network's shift to a direct-to-consumer model. One note of honesty on Brazil: the sources consulted disagree on the Ibovespa's close, between a sharply higher reading and negative intraday readings, and the few company stories identified cannot be reconstructed with sufficient certainty. I would rather say so than fill the gap: the Brazilian session remains an area to re-verify. Our system · [Alibaba](https://aitrading67.com/en/alibaba-stock-signals/) **long** · [Baidu](https://aitrading67.com/en/baidu-stock-signals/) **short** · [XPeng](https://aitrading67.com/en/xpeng-stock-signals/) **short** · [Li Auto](https://aitrading67.com/en/li-auto-stock-signals/) **short** · [Nike](https://aitrading67.com/en/nike-stock-signals/) **short** · [Disney](https://aitrading67.com/en/walt-disney-stock-signals/) **short** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. 📊 INDICES The desk's read SPY held, QQQ did not — and the reason is in the basket The technical analysis of the two American indices threw up an unusually sharp contrast yesterday, and it points to something structural rather than a one-session impression. The Buy Signal on [SPY](https://aitrading67.com/en/sp-500-etf-signals/)Long is still valid, with the trade around 9% in profit from entry and the index roughly 3% below its record. On [QQQ](https://aitrading67.com/en/nasdaq-100-etf-signals/)Long the signal is switching off on the weekly bar still forming, the trade is back to breakeven and the index sits almost 8% below its record. Both have left their records behind, but SPY defended its weekly Inversion Point — the level that keeps the signal alive — while QQQ lost it: price ended up around 6% below that level, and the long went with it. In price action trading terms, that is where the two indices parted company. The reason lies in composition, which is why it is not an isolated episode. QQQ carries more than 50% of its weight in technology, 16% in communications and 13% in consumer discretionary: the three sectors that fell hardest yesterday are almost 80% of the basket on their own. And financials, which cushion the S&P 500 with roughly 13%, weigh 0.2% in the Nasdaq 100\. No parachute: the defensive rotation that softens the blow in the S&P passes straight over the Nasdaq. Which is exactly why it broke first. Our system · [SPY](https://aitrading67.com/en/sp-500-etf-signals/) **long** · [QQQ](https://aitrading67.com/en/nasdaq-100-etf-signals/) **long** Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the operating plan are in each stock's report. --- The desk's take The premise changed, so the reading changes The point of this session is not the size of the declines, which was ordinary. The point is that **the premise changed**. Until Wednesday the debate was about when the next rate cut would arrive; since Thursday the market prices a hike at four-in-five odds on one side of the ocean, with the door open on the other. Everything built on the opposite assumption needs re-reading from the top, with the new premise in hand. The second takeaway applies to the next two weeks, the heart of earnings season: **in this phase even a good quarter may not protect you**. Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, UniCredit and Moncler all beat estimates or raised guidance, and all fell on the same day. And a warning that applies to us too: the two areas that worked, energy and defence, are the same bet seen from two sides, and both depend on how things end in the Strait of Hormuz. Concentrating there means letting a single headline decide the portfolio. **Note.** Educational and informational content based on the news of 24 July 2026\. It is not personalised investment advice nor a solicitation to invest. Past data does not guarantee future results. Sources [1Iran, escalation nel Golfoaljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/23/trump-warns-of-biggest-strikes-yet-on-iran-as-tehran-lashes-out-across-gulf) [2Cronaca della giornata iranianacnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/23/world/live-news/iran-war-trump) [3BCE — decisione di politica monetaria del 23 luglioecb.europa.eu](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html) [4Lagarde lascia aperta la porta a un rialzo a settembreeuronews.com](https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/23/ecb-hostage-to-oil-prices-lagarde-leaves-door-open-for-a-september-hike) [5Attese sui tassi Fed dopo petrolio e sussidicnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/fed-interest-rate-odds-oil-jobless-claims.html) [6Tesla, i tagli ai prezzi obiettivo dopo i conticnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/23/tesla-gets-price-target-cuts-from-analysts-on-earnings-miss-what-theyre-saying.html) [7La seduta di Wall Street del 23 lugliowashingtonpost.com](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/07/23/wall-street-dow-nasdaq-stocks/70df2dda-86d3-11f1-9cec-0fb26676f07e%5Fstory.html) [8Lockheed Martin: guidance alzata e ordini recordbloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-23/lockheed-shares-jump-after-upgraded-forecast-and-record-backlog) [9RTX, il balzo del titolo sui contifxleaders.com](https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/07/23/rtx-corporation-rtx-stock-jumps-7-while-s-heres-why/) [10UniCredit batte il consenso nel semestremilanofinanza.it](https://www.milanofinanza.it/news/unicredit-batte-il-consenso-nel-semestre-e-prepara-un-acconto-sul-dividendo-da-2-8-miliardi-dopo-commerzbank-202607230729281860) [11STMicroelectronics torna all'utile ma delude sulla guidancemilanofinanza.it](https://www.milanofinanza.it/news/stm-torna-in-utile-nel-secondo-trimestre-e-alza-la-stima-sui-ricavi-per-data-center-oltre-1-miliardo-202607230904162867) [12Piazza Affari, la seduta di Milanoansa.it](https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/economia/2026/07/23/borsa-milano-peggiora-e-cede-l13-cade-stm%5Fc6cca4d8-352f-4f22-a36f-595d02394777.html) [13Moncler, i conti del primo semestresoldionline.it](https://www.soldionline.it/notizie/azioni-italia/conti-moncler-primo-semestre-2026) [14Airbus e gli obiettivi 2029decisionbourse.fr](https://www.decisionbourse.fr/bourse-en-direct/2026/07/23/airbus-cap-sur-13-milliards-deuros-de-resultat-operationnel-en-2029) [15TotalEnergies, utile e dividendo del trimestretoutsurmesfinances.com](https://www.toutsurmesfinances.com/actualites/a/resultats-t2-2026-de-totalenergies-les-cours-du-baril-dopent-le-benefice-et-le-dividende) [16BNP Paribas, utile netto in crescitaabcbourse.com](https://www.abcbourse.com/marches/bnp-paribas-le-benefice-bondit-de-33-au-deuxieme-trimestre-et-atteint-4-3-mi%5F700196) [17SAP, i risultati del trimestrestocktitan.net](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/SAP/sap-quarterly-statement-q2-mu9r28yruw3r.html) [18Nike e la svolta sui canali cinesiinvesting.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/why-is-nike-stock-sliding-today-93CH-4806276) [19Disney, parchi e transizione di ESPNbenzinga.com](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/07/60652375/why-is-walt-disney-stock-falling-thursday) [20Il rimbalzo del greggio e i titoli energeticibenzinga.com](https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/07/60339242/ceasefire-cracks-oil-bounces-why-exxon-chevron-stocks-are-hot-again)