Sell signal, week 10
Bradespar: the decline holds but loses steam in week 10
Sell signal, week 10
In Summary
Week 10 of the sell signal on Bradespar, and the week just closed up 1.0%, with buy volume climbing to 66%. The recent technical picture shows a decline holding its direction but losing fresh drive: the CMF stays positive and momentum, still negative, improves versus the prior week. Trading not recommended per our model.
IQS Phase
61
ordinary
Signal Strength
9
decline losing steam
Sizing
MINIMUM
Ranking
#17 / 22
Rest of the World stocks
Trade P&L %
+2.22%
from signal to today
restricted Platinum content
Rank position
ranks 17th among the 22 sell signals for titoli resto del mondo in our ranking, with a signal strength of 60 out of 100.
Sector context
SectorFinancials
Benchmark ETFXLF
Sector regimein strong phase
Performance1W +3.83% · 1M +8.08%
BRAP4 belongs to the financials sector (reference ETF XLF). The sector is classified in strong phase according to our weekly reading.
Setup qualityTrading not recommended
Opening at elevated risk per our model; the asset continues to be analyzed week by week.
DLPrice Action · Last 4 weeks
bearish with warnings (1 segnali di attenzione su 11 componenti)
Score75/ 100
Bearish weekly reading, weekly structure weakening.
⚠ Attention signals (1)
PA2 · contracting volumes
DLIQS · Setup phase
61/ 100
ordinary
3-week slope: coming soon
DLSignal Strength9 / 100
9/ 100
Lowdecline losing steam
DLNo-Trade Zone
No-Trade Zone · operational range
Zone shaded by prevailing regime
close
18.25
26.85
22.34
22.76
DLDistance from all-time highs0.00%
71/ 100
Ample headroom
Distance from ATH: 0.00% · Tests on highs (last 10w): 0
DLSupport & Resistance
Resistances
22.45Day20-day moving averagerejected 5× · 29/06 · broken 4× · 15/06+0.09%
22.58Day100-day moving averagerejected 3× · 29/06 · broken 3× · 15/06+0.66%
22.72Day50-day moving averagerejected 3× · 29/06 · broken 3× · 25/05+1.29%
22.76Day7-day highrejected 3× · 29/06+1.47%
23.10Daydaily upper Bollinger Bandrejected 4× · 29/06 · broken 1× · 06/04+3.00%
Supports
22.34Daydaily Bollinger Band midlinerejected 4× · 29/06 · broken 4× · 22/06-0.39%
22.32Daydaily VWMArejected 5× · 29/06 · broken 5× · 22/06-0.48%
21.79Day7-day lowrejected 3× · 29/06-2.85%
21.58Daydaily lower Bollinger Bandrejected 5× · 29/06 · broken 2× · 01/06-3.77%
21.57Day200-day moving average-3.84%
21.34Day30-day low-4.86%
DLOperational plan · model's proposal
Week 10 of the sell signal on Bradespar, and the week closed up 1.0%, with buy volume climbing to 66% from 25% prior. The picture over the last four weeks reads more like a decline losing steam than one picking up speed: the MACD histogram holds steady around -0.32, a slight improvement from -0.34 two and three weeks ago, and the Signal line keeps sliding from 0.96 to 0.71, a sign the bearish push is unwinding. The CMF, at 0.073, stays in accumulation for the second week after peaking at 0.217 in early June: money flow no longer rows against the stock. Momentum stays negative at -2.4, but improves versus the prior -2.6. RSI sits anchored in the 51 area, a neutral read with no clear direction. Price action backs this mixed picture: structure still bearish, with only one warning flag out of 11 components — contracting volumes. On the levels side, price stays between the nearest resistance — the daily pivot point average, in the 22.4 area — and the first support, the daily Bollinger Band midline, in the 22.3 area. Next week calls for watching whether this range holds and what the CMF does: if it turns negative again, the bearish case regains weight; if it stays positive, the case for an exhausted decline gains ground.
Operational levelsTrade P&L +2.22%Opened April 24, 2026
SHORT
Entry
22.94
SL1
24.58
+7.15%
SL2
24.85
+8.33%
TP1
21.03
8.32%
TP2
20.21
11.89%
LONG (alternative scenario)
Entry
23.60
SL1
21.97
-6.91%
SL2
21.69
-8.09%
TP1
25.31
7.22%
TP2
25.79
9.24%
Legend of recurring terms click to expand
IQS PhaseSetup Quality Indicator (0-100): descriptor of the asset's phase relative to its volatility norm. Toward 0 = compressed/accumulation · ~50 = ordinary · toward 100 = stretched/mature. Descriptive, not predictive.
Signal StrengthCalibrated 0-100 indicator, re-modulated weekly. For buy signals it is the probability that the weekly signal reaches the first target without hitting the Stop Loss: high value = compelling bullish scenario. For sell signals it measures the amplitude of the signal week's drop: high value = very sharp drop, which may signal exhaustion rather than continuation.
Setup qualitySetup grade at trade opening. Full open = aligned conditions · Selective open = limited constraints · Operation not advised = the model flags elevated risk at entry · Watch/Skip = not operational. The asset continues to be analysed weekly anyway.
SizingCapital allocation relative to the standard budget per position. Full = 100% · Standard = 75% · Reduced = 50% · Minimum = 25%. Modulated by Signal Strength and setup quality flags.
Rank positionOrdering by Signal Strength inside the category × state pair (US Stocks or EU-UK Stocks · Open buys or Sell signals). Helps compare the current position with the others alive in the same category.
Inversion PointWeekly structural level fixing the Stop Loss reference. For a buy signal it is below entry (giving up that level invalidates the bullish reading); for a sell signal it is above entry (a breakthrough invalidates the bearish reading).
No-Trade ZonePrice band between resistance below and support above where entry is not immediately operational. When the NTZ is active, trading is suspended inside the zone; entries become valid above the upper extreme (long) or below the lower extreme (short).
Breakeven stopOperational SL stage for active buy trades: after the first-week confirmation and price advance, the stop is moved to the entry level and trade risk is zeroed out. The structural Stop Loss remains as a long-term reference.
6/8/10-week windowsThree statistical active-management moments on stock buy trades, derived from our backtest. At weeks 6, 8 and 10 trimming 10%, 20% and 30% of the position is suggested; the residual capital (the remaining 40%, untrimmed) can be kept and left to run until the inversion, with a trailing stop on the Inversion Point. Suggestions, not automatic system events.
Statistical TPs / Time exitThe TPs are statistical time+value targets: they estimate where price would be at a given week if the trade ran at average speed (ATR), and decay toward entry at the gate. The real price at the target week can be much higher (strong trend) or never reach them (weak trend). Time exit is the actual gain (entry→close of the gate week): it is why we manage by time — trimming the planned share at the set week often captures a far larger margin than the mathematical TP.
Reinforced tradeQualification of the buy trade when the confirmation week candle closes higher than the signal week. The system recognises the setup as confirmed by the price reaction.
Structural alertsPrice conditions the system considers relevant for setup qualification. Examples: above weekly EMA200 (stock far from a structural bearish framework, making a new short less safe); range trapped (stock trapped in a prolonged horizontal range).
Entry triggerType of event that operationally opens the position: breakout = breach of a key level (7-session high for a long, 7-session low for a short); pullback = pullback to the pivot or 20-day moving average after a first move in the signal direction.
Distance from highsPercentage distance from the all-time high (ATH) and frequency of tests on highs over the last 10 weeks. Close to ATH means limited running room; wide distance means room before the first significant ceiling.
Support & ResistanceThe technical levels above (resistances) and below (supports) price: moving averages, Bollinger bands, Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), historical highs and lows. Each level shows recent tests — how many times over the last ~5 months price reached it and was rejected (grazed, clean touch or decisive rejection) or broke through it (breakout/breakdown), with the date of the latest episode. More rejections = a more solid wall; a recent breakthrough = the wall has fallen.
IQS Slope (3 weeks)The direction of the IQS Phase over the last three weeks: whether the setup's tension is rising, falling or staying flat. It helps tell whether the asset is approaching a stretched/mature phase or unwinding, beyond the point-in-time IQS value.
Trade start dateThe week the current signal opened. Together with the percentage gain since start, it shows how long the trade has been running and where it sits along the management path (scale-out windows, breakeven stop).
Reading guideHow to read this page →
Disclaimer — The content on this page is published for educational and informational purposes and represents the author's personal opinion and technical analysis. It is not financial advice, a solicitation to invest, or personalised recommendation. Trading financial instruments involves significant risks and may result in the loss of all or part of the invested capital. Every operational decision is the sole responsibility of the user, who acknowledges acting in full autonomy and full awareness of risk.
Copyright — All text, analytical methodology and proprietary indicators (IQS Phase, Signal Strength, NTZ, Inversion Point, Entry Protocol, Ranker, Exit Gate) published on aitrading67.com are © Fabio Gentili. Reproduction, in whole or in part, in any form and for any purpose, is prohibited without the author's written permission.