Cyrela Brazil Realty — 16th week of decline
Double bottom forming: technical bounce or reversal?
Cyrela Brazil Realty — 16th week of decline
In Summary
Cyrela Brazil Realty is at week 16 of an active sell signal, with the trade sitting at a +16.7% gain since entry. The last 3 weeks delivered a sharp technical rebound after the -11.9% collapse in early June — a double bottom has formed in the 20 area on the daily chart. The underlying downtrend is still intact, but the convergence of indicators warrants attention.
IQS Phase
45
ordinary
Signal Strength
2
indecisive week
Sizing
MINIMUM
Ranking
#25 / 25
Rest of the World stocks
Trade P&L %
+16.71%
from signal to today
restricted Platinum content
Rank position
ranks 25th among the 25 sell signals for titoli resto del mondo in our ranking, with a signal strength of 45 out of 100.
Sector context
SectorFinancials
Benchmark ETFXLF
Sector regimein strong phase
Performance1W +0.00% · 1M +4.18%
CYRE3 belongs to the financials sector (reference ETF XLF). The sector is classified in strong phase according to our weekly reading.
Confirmation week
confirmation week closed bearish
the confirmation suggests keeping the position unchanged
Setup qualityTrading not recommended
Opening at elevated risk per our model; the asset continues to be analyzed week by week.
DLPrice Action · Last 4 weeks
bullish with warnings (2 segnali di attenzione su 11 componenti)
Score60/ 100
Constructive weekly reading but with two attention signals: the structure deserves close monitoring.
⚠ Attention signals (2)
PA7 · body conviction historically strong but gradually fadingPA10 · distribution phase underway
Daily pattern
Double bottomStrong
Double bottom in the 20 area with an intermediate rebound of 16%.
Reference levels: 19.76 · 20.20
DLIQS · Setup phase
45/ 100
ordinary
3-week slope: coming soon
DLSignal Strength2 / 100
2/ 100
Lowindecisive week
DLNo-Trade Zone
No-Trade Zone · operational range
Zone shaded by prevailing regime
close
16.31
30.25
23.19
23.37
DLDistance from all-time highs0.00%
86/ 100
Ample headroom
Distance from ATH: 0.00% · Tests on highs (last 10w): 0
DLSupport & Resistance
Resistances
23.37Daydaily upper Bollinger Bandrejected 4× · 22/06+0.15%
23.59Day7-day highrejected 3× · 22/06+1.11%
24.11Week20-week moving averagerejected 3× · 22/06 · broken 2× · 13/04+3.33%
24.29Day100-day moving averagerejected 3× · 22/06 · broken 2× · 13/04+4.12%
24.59Day200-day moving averagerejected 3× · 22/06 · broken 2× · 20/04+5.41%
24.68Daydaily Kumo ceilingrejected 4× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 23/02+5.81%
Supports
22.96Daydaily Kumo floorrejected 2× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 15/06-1.60%
22.93Day50-day moving averagerejected 1× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 15/06-1.71%
22.63Week100-week moving averagerejected 2× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 15/06-3.02%
21.94Day20-day moving averagerejected 3× · 22/06 · broken 2× · 08/06-5.97%
21.61Daydaily VWMArejected 4× · 22/06 · broken 3× · 08/06-7.39%
21.54Daydaily Bollinger Band midlinerejected 4× · 22/06 · broken 3× · 08/06-7.68%
Operational plan · summary
At week 16 of the sell signal on Cyrela Brazil Realty, the trade carries a gain of 16.7% since entry — yet the last 3 weeks tell a more complex story. After the -11.9% collapse in early June, the stock recovered with 3 consecutive up candles; the latest closed up +6.9% with buy volume at 89%, forming a double bottom in the 20 area on the daily chart with a cumulative rebound of 16%. The MACD remains negative — line at -1.26, signal at -0.82 — but the histogram has climbed from -0.92 in early June to -0.44: convergence toward zero is gradual but steady. RSI has moved from 34 to 46.5 over 3 weeks, momentum stays negative but stable. CMF eased from -0.21 to -0.09, still in distribution territory but noticeably less intense. The directional structure of the decline holds on a week-by-week basis but does not hold across the last 3. Next week, the key observation is whether the rebound stalls below the 23 area — the immediate resistance cluster — or pushes above the 50-day moving average and the daily Kumo ceiling: if it does, the bearish structure would come under real pressure.
Operational levelsTrade P&L +16.71%Opened March 6, 2026
SHORT
Entry
28.01
SL1
30.76
+9.82%
SL2
31.22
+11.46%
TP1
25.37
9.42%
TP2
24.24
13.45%
LONG (alternative scenario)
Entry
23.49
SL1
20.74
-11.71%
SL2
20.28
-13.67%
TP1
26.36
12.2%
TP2
27.16
15.62%
Legend of recurring terms click to expand
IQS PhaseSetup Quality Indicator (0-100): descriptor of the asset's phase relative to its volatility norm. Toward 0 = compressed/accumulation · ~50 = ordinary · toward 100 = stretched/mature. Descriptive, not predictive.
Signal StrengthCalibrated 0-100 indicator, re-modulated weekly. For buy signals it is the probability that the weekly signal reaches the first target without hitting the Stop Loss: high value = compelling bullish scenario. For sell signals it measures the amplitude of the signal week's drop: high value = very sharp drop, which may signal exhaustion rather than continuation.
Setup qualitySetup grade at trade opening. Full open = aligned conditions · Selective open = limited constraints · Operation not advised = the model flags elevated risk at entry · Watch/Skip = not operational. The asset continues to be analysed weekly anyway.
SizingCapital allocation relative to the standard budget per position. Full = 100% · Standard = 75% · Reduced = 50% · Minimum = 25%. Modulated by Signal Strength and setup quality flags.
Rank positionOrdering by Signal Strength inside the category × state pair (US Stocks or EU-UK Stocks · Open buys or Sell signals). Helps compare the current position with the others alive in the same category.
Inversion PointWeekly structural level fixing the Stop Loss reference. For a buy signal it is below entry (giving up that level invalidates the bullish reading); for a sell signal it is above entry (a breakthrough invalidates the bearish reading).
No-Trade ZonePrice band between resistance below and support above where entry is not immediately operational. When the NTZ is active, trading is suspended inside the zone; entries become valid above the upper extreme (long) or below the lower extreme (short).
Breakeven stopOperational SL stage for active buy trades: after the first-week confirmation and price advance, the stop is moved to the entry level and trade risk is zeroed out. The structural Stop Loss remains as a long-term reference.
6/8/10-week windowsThree statistical active-management moments on stock buy trades, derived from our backtest. At weeks 6, 8 and 10 trimming 10%, 20% and 30% of the position is suggested; the residual capital (the remaining 40%, untrimmed) can be kept and left to run until the inversion, with a trailing stop on the Inversion Point. Suggestions, not automatic system events.
Statistical TPs / Time exitThe TPs are statistical time+value targets: they estimate where price would be at a given week if the trade ran at average speed (ATR), and decay toward entry at the gate. The real price at the target week can be much higher (strong trend) or never reach them (weak trend). Time exit is the actual gain (entry→close of the gate week): it is why we manage by time — trimming the planned share at the set week often captures a far larger margin than the mathematical TP.
Reinforced tradeQualification of the buy trade when the confirmation week candle closes higher than the signal week. The system recognises the setup as confirmed by the price reaction.
Structural alertsPrice conditions the system considers relevant for setup qualification. Examples: above weekly EMA200 (stock far from a structural bearish framework, making a new short less safe); range trapped (stock trapped in a prolonged horizontal range).
Entry triggerType of event that operationally opens the position: breakout = breach of a key level (7-session high for a long, 7-session low for a short); pullback = pullback to the pivot or 20-day moving average after a first move in the signal direction.
Distance from highsPercentage distance from the all-time high (ATH) and frequency of tests on highs over the last 10 weeks. Close to ATH means limited running room; wide distance means room before the first significant ceiling.
Support & ResistanceThe technical levels above (resistances) and below (supports) price: moving averages, Bollinger bands, Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), historical highs and lows. Each level shows recent tests — how many times over the last ~5 months price reached it and was rejected (grazed, clean touch or decisive rejection) or broke through it (breakout/breakdown), with the date of the latest episode. More rejections = a more solid wall; a recent breakthrough = the wall has fallen.
IQS Slope (3 weeks)The direction of the IQS Phase over the last three weeks: whether the setup's tension is rising, falling or staying flat. It helps tell whether the asset is approaching a stretched/mature phase or unwinding, beyond the point-in-time IQS value.
Trade start dateThe week the current signal opened. Together with the percentage gain since start, it shows how long the trade has been running and where it sits along the management path (scale-out windows, breakeven stop).
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Copyright — All text, analytical methodology and proprietary indicators (IQS Phase, Signal Strength, NTZ, Inversion Point, Entry Protocol, Ranker, Exit Gate) published on aitrading67.com are © Fabio Gentili. Reproduction, in whole or in part, in any form and for any purpose, is prohibited without the author's written permission.