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Eli Lilly stock fell 3.4% after 2 weeks of recovery and is leaning on its 20-week moving average again, in the 1137 area. Our technical analysis reads a decline that has restarted, with money flow negative: among US stocks, a high-risk swing trading setup for a new short.

Eli Lilly drops 3.4% as the bounce dies under the daily Kumo and the decline resumes
Sell signal in observation · week 4

Eli Lilly drops 3.4% as the bounce dies under the daily Kumo and the decline resumes

October 02, 2026

Our view last week

Eli Lilly bounced 3% off its 20-day moving average and closed the week up 2.6%, its second gain in a row, climbing back toward the Inversion Point in the 1206 area. After last week's stall, the technical analysis reads a decline fading out: signal strength drops to 2 out of 100. Volume in Eli Lilly stock has leaned to buyers for 2 weeks, but money flow is still below zero. Among US stocks on a sell signal, this is a high-risk place to open a short.

This week's summary

Eli Lilly's bounce died under the daily Kumo floor, in the 1186 area: the week closed down 3.4% after 2 straight gains, putting price back on its 20-week moving average in the 1137 area. A week ago our technical analysis read a decline fading out; now the slide has restarted and signal strength is picking up. Price action shows distribution and money flow has been negative for 5 weeks, with Eli Lilly stock still 44% above its 200-week average.
Sell signal in observation ·4th week from start ·US stocks ·T2 ·📅 Earnings · Oct 29 ★ See Gold version →
IQS Phase
75
in tension
Signal Strength
26
decline starting to make lower lows
Sizing
MINIMUM
Ranking
#97 / 175
US stocks sell signals
Trade P&L %
-2.43%
from signal to date, no stop loss

Eli Lilly (LLY) weekly chart — EMA50 · MACD · VWAP

Weekly chart · EMA50 · MACD · VWAP · Source: TradingView
How to read this pageA visual guide to the post, card by card→

Rank position

ranks 97th among the 175 sell signals for US stocks in our ranking, with a signal strength of 26 out of 100.

Sector context

SectorHealth Care
Benchmark ETFXLV
Sector regimein positive regime
Performanceweekly -2.65% · monthly -3.91%

LLY belongs to the health care sector (reference ETF XLV). The sector is classified in positive regime according to our weekly reading.

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