Weekly recap · August 28, 2026
European defence turns, metals keep marching
6 indices buying, 1 selling · 9 new Buy signals · Focus on Communication (US) and Basic Resources (EU) · Volatility easing
01
The week in view
A week that split in two, and the split matters more than the direction. Monday the picture was tight: a soft dollar, gold running for a third straight week, and alongside it uranium, rare earths and miners all bid. When four unrelated corners move as one, there is usually a single price behind them. From Tuesday that block came apart: sanctions on Iran pushed crude lower, European oil names sank to the bottom of the table while metals kept climbing. Anyone treating commodities as one trade had to stop. Friday brought the real brake, and it came from the data: US core inflation is stuck at 3.3%, above target, which cools the case for a September cut. One blowout earnings report lifted the Nasdaq and left the broad index roughly flat — which is the thread running through the whole week. Breadth has been thinning since mid-August: the indices climb, fewer and fewer names do the lifting. On the signal side the sharpest news comes out of Europe, where defence turned. Leonardo gave up 6%, Thales 3.3%, BAE Systems 3.9%, and all three triggered a fresh sell signal in the same week. Stateside PayPal shed 12.8% in five sessions and opened a sell signal, while Fortinet bounced 8.1%.
02
Macro regime
market contextRisk-On
The macro backdrop stays supportive and no stress gauge has tripped, yet the improvement has lost pace and market breadth has thinned.
VIX
Favorable
MOVE
Favorable
DXY
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
03
Main indices
7 Broad ETFsSix of seven indices remain on a buy signal, but the conviction our model measures is at its lowest in months: on the S&P 500, the DAX and the FTSE MIB signal strength has fallen close to zero, even with gains above 13% after twenty weeks. The CAC 40 is the only one to turn, with a sell signal just triggered. The DAX closes a tenth of a point from its own record: within touching distance, and without thrust.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Buy · open›
The S&P 500 closes 0.5% higher and stays on a buy signal at week twenty, 13.2% ahead since entry. Yet signal strength has slipped to 7 out of 100, effectively the floor of the scale: our model reads the advance as a mature one. Price works barely a point below its all-time high and the weekly RSI at 64 flags no excess, while the MACD deteriorates. It is the portrait of an index holding its ground without gaining any, in a week when market breadth thinned.
Signal Strength7 / 100
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ)Buy · open›
The Nasdaq 100 adds 0.4%, yet the trade is still 2% underwater at week two: the signal is young and has not found its footing. Strength at 17 out of 100 remains low and the MACD works in negative territory. This is the index that felt the blowout earnings report at the end of the week most directly, and the one that best shows the paradox: the tech benchmark rises while the broad index stands still. Price sits a little over four points below its highs.
Signal Strength17 / 100
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Buy · open›
The Russell 2000 is the only one of the three US benchmarks to close red, down 1.4%, and at the same time the one with the highest strength of the group, 32 out of 100. The trade holds a 13.2% gain after twenty weeks. The striking figure is the distance from its activation level, barely seven tenths of a point: small caps are the closest of all the indices we follow to firing again. An RSI of 60 and a MACD still below zero describe an index that has stopped running without breaking anything.
Signal Strength32 / 100
Multi Units France Sicav (CAC)Sell›
The CAC 40 is the only one of the seven to switch sides: after nineteen weeks on a buy, a sell signal fires with the week closing 1.0% lower. Strength at 47 out of 100 is the highest of the group, which here reads the other way round: it is the conviction behind the new decline. The all-time high has pushed price back a second time and the gap has widened to four points. The French market carries the weight of a defence sector that turned this very week, with Thales among the fresh sell signals.
Signal Strength47 / 100
Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc (DAX)Buy · open›
The DAX is the strongest of the week, up 1.7% and closing a tenth of a point from its own all-time high: effectively on the record. The trade is 7.3% ahead at week nineteen and its MACD is the only one of the seven improving. Even so, signal strength sits at 7 out of 100, the same as the S&P 500. It is the most interesting tension among the seven indices: price touches the high, our model's instruments do not follow. The full note is worth reading to see which way it resolves.
Signal Strength7 / 100
Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF (MIB)Buy · open›
The FTSE MIB closes flat, a tenth of a point below par, yet it carries the largest gain since entry of the whole group: 13.4% over twenty weeks. Signal strength has fallen to zero, the absolute floor of the scale, and the MACD has just crossed below its own signal line. Price works two and a half points beneath the all-time high that turned it back mid-month. This is an advance that has delivered plenty and now moves on inertia: the individual note shows where the guard sits.
Signal Strength0 / 100
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (ISF)Buy · open›
The FTSE 100 finishes essentially unchanged at 0.1%, with a 2.1% gain since entry after twenty weeks: the most modest of the six indices on a buy. Strength at 11 out of 100 stays low and an RSI of 61 signals no strain. What sets it apart is the distance from its all-time high, more than seven and a half points: it is the index with the most road ahead among those we follow, and also the one that has gained least. The individual note helps make sense of the contrast.
Signal Strength11 / 100
04
Sector rotation
US · EuropeIn the US the week rewards communication services, technology and financials — the only three sectors of eleven in the green: narrow leadership, consistent with the fading breadth. Europe is livelier: basic resources lead with more than two points, technology follows, while energy pays for retreating crude and finishes last. Health care slips on both sides of the Atlantic, the only sector to do so in unison. The full rotation, sector by sector, is in this week's dedicated report.
US sectors
XLC›
State Street Communication Ser
rising · +1.43%
XLK›
State Street Technology Select
rising · +1.30%
XLF›
State Street Financial Select
rising · +1.08%
XLU›
State Street Utilities Select
flat · -0.09%
XLP›
State Street Consumer Staples
falling · -0.63%
XLB›
State Street Materials Select
falling · -0.67%
XLE›
State Street Energy Select Sec
falling · -1.51%
XLI›
State Street Industrial Select
falling · -1.73%
XLV›
State Street Health Care Selec
falling · -1.98%
European sectors
EXV6›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic
rising · +2.02%
EXV3›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Techn
rising · +0.72%
EXH4›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Indus
rising · +0.71%
EXH9›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utili
rising · +0.66%
EXV1›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks
rising · +0.51%
EXV4›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Healt
falling · -2.18%
EXH1›
iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil &
falling · -2.89%
05
Confirmed Buy signals
at the confirmation weekFive US names have cleared the first hurdle: the buy signal fired the week before and the confirmation week closed higher. That matters more than it looks. In our method a signal that survives its first seven days rests on different ground than one just born: confirmation guarantees nothing, but it clears out the moves that die immediately. The group is a mixed bag, which is encouraging, because it does not hang on a single theme. Novavax leads with the highest strength of the cohort, followed by Circle in digital financial services. Then two names tied to commodities and energy, Halliburton and Cameco, the latter sitting inside the uranium theme that ran through the whole week. An emerging-markets basket rounds out the list. From Europe and the rest of the world there were no confirmations this week: that is information too. The individual notes show which levels each of these signals is leaning on.
1
NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
Strength 87
›
2
CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc. Class A
Strength 86
›
3
HAL
Halliburton Company
Strength 66
›
4
CCJ
Cameco Corporation
Strength 66
›
5
IEMG
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
Strength 47
›
None this week
None this week
06
Ranker rankings
Top by Signal StrengthOnly three fresh buys, and none of them opens smoothly. Robinhood tops the table with signal strength at 76 out of 100, yet its debut week closes down 3.6%, sellers owning the final candle and volume drying up: price is pinned against highs already tested several times, and our model advises against acting on the open. Strategy adds 6.8% and pulls its weekly MACD back above the signal line after a soft patch, though it sits boxed between nearby support and resistance. IBM bounces firmly off its 20-day average, but on the weekly chart it remains below the 50-week line, inside a tight range. Three different cases carrying the same caveat: the signal is new, the structure is not yet behind it. Worth opening the individual notes to see what each one has to clear before the move earns trust.
The 175 open US buys barely move, and the names on top explain why. Fortinet is the live exception: up 8.1% on the week, reclaiming its 20-day average after an 11% bounce off the lows, and holding just under all-time highs. Snowflake slips 1.4% following its prior run but keeps buyers in charge with 75% of volume, while its trend-strength gauge rises for an eighth straight week: conviction has not gone. The rest are catching their breath. Moderna drops 4.9% in the very week meant to confirm the signal, Oscar Health falls at the same pace for a second consecutive decline, CRISPR Therapeutics gives up 3% with sellers taking the closing candle. All of these carry strength above 85: the structure holds, the thrust has stalled. The angle here is not news but progress — where each trade actually stands — and the individual notes spell that out figure by figure.
This is where the week actually happened. PayPal sheds 12.8% in five sessions, slides beneath its 50-week average and opens a fresh sell signal that lands straight into second place among the 96 US declines. Quanta Services tops the table at the ceiling of the strength scale: the short has been running 13 weeks and is past 13% in the money, with another 5.7% given up after the prior week's 6.8% and 94% of turnover on the sell side. Across hydrogen and fuel cells the decline has become a theme in itself: FuelCell Energy drops another 9.1% for a second straight week, Ballard Power 6.2% after the previous 11.1%, its short live since week twelve and more than 45% ahead. Royal Caribbean rounds it off, stacking four progressively lower highs with money flow heading out. The individual notes show how far each of these declines has travelled and what would keep it going.
Four European openings, and three of them are genuine turns. Rio Tinto flips the page after eight weeks under a sell signal: the week closes nearly flat, yet our model reads enough to open a buy, first among the four. Poste Italiane breaks a technical squeeze and finishes 2.1% higher above its 50-week average, buyers back in control. Telecom Italia adds the same 2.1% but sits wedged between support and resistance only cents apart, and the price-action read flags five warnings out of eleven: thinning volume and fading candle bodies. The European autos ETF completes the set, bouncing 3% off its 20-day average with money flow just turned positive after ten weeks the other way and 88% of trade on the bid. These are openings to study with patience: our model flags all four as high-risk entries, and the notes explain why, case by case.
Among the 65 European buys already running, an unlikely defensive pair leads. Bayer gains 1.3% in a week when European health care lost 2.2%: a counter-trend hold, above its 50-week average and above the Ichimoku cloud, even as volume thins. SAP bounces 8% off its 20-day line back within reach of recent highs, buyers commanding 84% of daily turnover, though the weekly picture shows some cracks. In luxury, Brunello Cucinelli closes 0.7% higher with money flow recovering for a second week — still below zero, but climbing. Capgemini gives up 1.5% yet prints a daily hammer that rejects the drop, its trend gauge rising for four weeks. Rheinmetall is the odd one out: three successively lower highs and money leaving, a buy that holds but has lost its shine — and it sits in defence, the sector that turned this week.
Here is the European story of the week, and it has a collective name: defence. Leonardo drops 6% and closes with a candle that swallows the previous one whole, buyer dominance collapsing within days: a fresh sell signal fires. Thales loses 3.3% as money flow flips negative after six weeks above zero — seven days ago its signal was a buy, strength at 83. BAE Systems gives up 3.9% with sellers firmly on top, and the picture is unusual: the weekly structure stays technically bullish while momentum cracks first. Three names from one sector turning in the same week say more than three isolated cases. Outside defence, Orange leads the 51 European declines with strength at 89 after shedding 4.8%, and Danone reaches a fourth week of selling with its MACD rolling over after nine weeks up. The individual notes show how much room is left below.
Only two openings, both Brazilian and both in housing. MRV Engenharia ends the week 2% higher and our model opens a buy after twenty-three weeks on the other side — a long-awaited turn, though it arrives with a daily candle that engulfs the prior one to the downside and buyers still trailing on volume. Cyrela follows the same track with a bounce that stalls: down 0.4% after the 8.3% jump seven days earlier, and again the session closes on a bearish print. Two names from one sector lighting up together are not two independent signals: this is Brazilian housing changing gear, and it should be read as a single theme. Our model flags both openings as high-risk and does not treat them as immediate entries. The individual notes set out the level each needs to clear before the turn earns belief.
The open Brazilian book is the busiest of the week, and it moves both ways. Light jumps 11.5% with almost two thirds of daily turnover on the bid, even as candle bodies weaken and money flow rolls over after seven weeks of gains. Ultrapar catches its breath after the prior surge and gives up 2.7%, still 22.2% ahead since entry at week eight. Petrobras loses 2.2% but rebounds straight off its 20-day average for a 6% recovery, with money flow positive for three weeks. At the other end PDG Realty drops 16.7% in a single week and closes below both protection levels our model had marked: a case worth opening precisely to see how a trade reads once its guards are taken out. Klabin closes the group with 1.9% and a signal at week six that is starting to fade.
Twenty-three declines running across the rest of the world, and the common thread is that the bounces do not convince. Gerdau gains 7.4% on the week, yet on the daily chart it lines up four progressively lower highs with sellers still owning volume: our model reads the rise as an unconfirmed bounce. Braskem resumes its slide at a gentler pace after the previous plunge, money flow deeply negative. Qualicorp loses 4.3% for a second straight fall, 86% of turnover on the sell side and money flow back below zero after two weeks. Lojas Renner eases 2.6% with 78% of volume going to sellers, the sharpest share in weeks, while its trend gauge has risen for four. Gafisa closes the group, shedding 4.5% and erasing the prior bounce, stuck in deep oversold territory for a month with no sign of a turn. The notes lay out which of these declines still has room and which are running dry.
Methodology note — Nothing written here constitutes financial advice, a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments, or any kind of recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss; the user acts under their own responsibility. Signal Strength is an internal analytical framework used only to rank relative technical quality within the basket. © Fabio Gentili.