NIO: a heavy drop, but the trend loses conviction
NIO drops 8%: a double bottom near 4.6 opens an exhaustion case
NIO: a heavy drop, but the trend loses conviction
Our view last week
NIO shares bounce 2.1% this week — a shift from last week's near-flat -0.2% — but the tape doesn't back it up: 82% of volume stayed on the sell side, and our technical analysis reads a clear divergence. Price is boxed between the 20-day average, in the 4.93 area, and the daily pivot, in the 4.85 area — a tight corridor that the decline, under management for 11 weeks, keeps controlling. The short is now above 16% in profit.
This week's summary
NIO shares drop 8% this week, with 96% of volume on the sell side — about as one-sided as selling pressure gets. Yet inside that decline a clean double bottom formed in the 4.6 area, with a 17% intermediate rebound: a first sign of exhaustion. Our weekly technical analysis reads a declining ADX, the trend losing conviction even as price falls. The short is now more than 23% in profit.
IQS Phase
86
in tension / maturity
Signal Strength
39
decline starting to make lower lows
Sizing
REDUCED
Ranking
#68 / 141
US stocks
Trade P&L %
+23.25%
from signal to today
Rank position
ranks 68th among the 141 sell signals for US stocks in our ranking, with a signal strength of 39 out of 100.
Sector context
SectorConsumer Discretionary
Benchmark ETFXLY
Sector regimeweak phase
Performanceweekly -5.22% · monthly -4.92%
NIO belongs to the consumer discretionary sector (reference ETF XLY). The sector is classified weak phase according to our weekly reading.
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