Open BUY · Week 9 · US Stocks
Virgin Galactic: 3 targets hit, but the roadmap isn't over yet
Open BUY · Week 9 · US Stocks
In Summary
Virgin Galactic Holdings is at week 9 of an active buy trade, up 29% from entry. All 3 statistical targets of our most advanced model have already been hit ahead of schedule, but the time-based coverage isn't over: the management roadmap runs through week 10, with one final reduction window still ahead. On the daily chart, a double bottom has formed in the 2.4 area with a 33% intermediate rebound — a structural hold signal in the short term.
IQS Phase
40
ordinary
Signal Strength
87
high · wide & volatile
Sizing
FULL
Ranking
#60 / 145
US stocks in progress
Trade P&L %
+29.47%
from signal to today
restricted Platinum content
Rank position
ranks 60th among the 145 Longs already running for US stocks in our ranking, with a signal strength of 87 out of 100.
Sector context
SectorIndustrial
Benchmark ETFXLI
Sector regimein positive regime
Performance1W +0.32% · 1M +1.11%
SPCE belongs to the industrial sector (reference ETF XLI). The sector is classified in positive regime according to our weekly reading.
Confirmation week
Negative confirmation (historical)
The confirmation week, in the trade's 2nd week, had closed lower: the setup started under tension. The trade has continued since and is now in week 9.
Active trade management
Stage 1 · Structural stop
Week9 / 10
Active size100%
Active stop187.82%
Structural stop29.80% · 3.92
Reference stop0.00% standard
Trade riskactive
Setup showing weakness signals in the confirmation week. The active stop is dynamic (8.69, +187.82% from entry): it adapts week by week to buying and selling pressure, and is currently tighter than the structural level. The wider structural level remains 3.92 (+29.80% from entry, the same as SL1 above): this would have been the active stop if the confirmation week had strengthened the signal.
Trade horizon · 28 weeks max
W0 · entry
TODAY · W9
W28 · max horizon
Discretionary continuation zone (after W10): no more statistical windows; the trade runs until stop or new signal.
Week 10 · trim by 30% · 1 week to go.
Statistical windows: 6w (−10%) · 8w (−20%) · 10w (−30%) · 40% runner to the inversion. Active management suggestions, not automatic events.
DLPrice Action · Last 4 weeks
bearish with warnings (4 segnali di attenzione su 11 componenti)
Score45/ 100
Weekly reading with 4 attention signals: the structure shows fragility on components.
⚠ Attention signals (4)
PA7 · moderate body conviction fading, weak last barPA8 · buyer dominance collapsingPA9 · sellers extremely dominant in the last barPA10 · strong distribution phase
Daily pattern
Double bottomStrong
Double bottom in the 2.4 area with an intermediate rebound of 33%.
Reference levels: 2.37 · 2.41
DLIQS · Setup phase
40/ 100
ordinary
3-week slope: coming soon
DLSignal Strength87 / 100
87/ 100
Highhigh · wide & volatile
DLNo-Trade Zone
No-Trade Zone · operational range
Zone shaded by prevailing regime
close
1.31
7.59
3.92
4.98
DLDistance from all-time highs0.00%
92/ 100
Ample headroom
Distance from ATH: 0.00% · Tests on highs (last 10w): 0
Operational plan · summary
The trade is up 29% and has reached the most advanced phase of its roadmap: all 3 statistical targets of our most advanced model have already been touched ahead of schedule, but the time-based coverage is not yet closed — week 10 is the decisive one, with the final window suggesting a 30% reduction of the initial position. The active stop is dynamic and adapts week by week to market pressure: it is currently tighter than the structural level in the 3.92 area. The weekly structure is weakly bullish, with the quality-of-setup indicator at 40 out of 100 in an ordinary phase — not an expanding setup, but a trade that is holding. Signal strength is high at 87 out of 100, describing a wide and volatile move: a profile to manage with discipline, not to ignore. On the daily chart, the double bottom in the 2.4 area and ADX at 38 with +DI dominant signal directional hold. Discipline suggests not adding exposure and preparing for the week 10 window.
Operational levelsTrade P&L +29.47%
LONG
Entry
3.02
SL1
3.92
+29.80%
SL2
2.46
-18.54%
Statistical TPs (time+value references) — left: algorithmic target · right: time exit (entry→close of the gate week)
SHORT (alternative scenario)
Entry
3.92
SL1
4.96
+26.53%
SL2
5.13
+30.87%
TP1
2.83
27.74%
TP2
2.52
35.51%
Legend of recurring terms click to expand
IQS PhaseSetup Quality Indicator (0-100): descriptor of the asset's phase relative to its volatility norm. Toward 0 = compressed/accumulation · ~50 = ordinary · toward 100 = stretched/mature. Descriptive, not predictive.
Signal StrengthCalibrated 0-100 indicator, re-modulated weekly. For buy signals it is the probability that the weekly signal reaches the first target without hitting the Stop Loss: high value = compelling bullish scenario. For sell signals it measures the amplitude of the signal week's drop: high value = very sharp drop, which may signal exhaustion rather than continuation.
Setup qualitySetup grade at trade opening. Full open = aligned conditions · Selective open = limited constraints · Operation not advised = the model flags elevated risk at entry · Watch/Skip = not operational. The asset continues to be analysed weekly anyway.
SizingCapital allocation relative to the standard budget per position. Full = 100% · Standard = 75% · Reduced = 50% · Minimum = 25%. Modulated by Signal Strength and setup quality flags.
Rank positionOrdering by Signal Strength inside the category × state pair (US Stocks or EU-UK Stocks · Open buys or Sell signals). Helps compare the current position with the others alive in the same category.
Inversion PointWeekly structural level fixing the Stop Loss reference. For a buy signal it is below entry (giving up that level invalidates the bullish reading); for a sell signal it is above entry (a breakthrough invalidates the bearish reading).
No-Trade ZonePrice band between resistance below and support above where entry is not immediately operational. When the NTZ is active, trading is suspended inside the zone; entries become valid above the upper extreme (long) or below the lower extreme (short).
Breakeven stopOperational SL stage for active buy trades: after the first-week confirmation and price advance, the stop is moved to the entry level and trade risk is zeroed out. The structural Stop Loss remains as a long-term reference.
6/8/10-week windowsThree statistical active-management moments on stock buy trades, derived from our backtest. At weeks 6, 8 and 10 trimming 10%, 20% and 30% of the position is suggested; the remaining 40% (runner) can be kept and left to run until the inversion, with a trailing stop on the Inversion Point. Suggestions, not automatic system events.
Statistical TPs / Time exitThe TPs are statistical time+value targets: they estimate where price would be at a given week if the trade ran at average speed (ATR), and decay toward entry at the gate. The real price at the target week can be much higher (strong trend) or never reach them (weak trend). Time exit is the actual gain (entry→close of the gate week): it is why we manage by time — trimming the planned share at the set week often captures a far larger margin than the mathematical TP.
Reinforced tradeQualification of the buy trade when the confirmation week candle closes higher than the signal week. The system recognises the setup as confirmed by the price reaction.
Structural alertsPrice conditions the system considers relevant for setup qualification. Examples: above weekly EMA200 (stock far from a structural bearish framework, making a new short less safe); range trapped (stock trapped in a prolonged horizontal range).
Entry triggerType of event that operationally opens the position: breakout = breach of a key level (7-session high for a long, 7-session low for a short); pullback = pullback to the pivot or 20-day moving average after a first move in the signal direction.
Distance from highsPercentage distance from the all-time high (ATH) and frequency of tests on highs over the last 10 weeks. Close to ATH means limited running room; wide distance means room before the first significant ceiling.
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