Ultrapar · sell signal at week 4
Technical bounce in the 24 area, but distribution persists
Ultrapar · sell signal at week 4
In Summary
Ultrapar is at week 4 of a sell signal the market has not confirmed: 3 observation weeks closed sideways and this week closed up 2% with buyers at 79% of volume. A double bottom in the 24 area adds a technical signal against the decline. Our model flags trading as not recommended.
IQS Phase
64
ordinary
Signal Strength
2
indecisive week
Sizing
MINIMUM
Ranking
#15 / 25
Rest of the World stocks
Trade P&L %
+1.04%
from signal to today
restricted Platinum content
Rank position
ranks 15th among the 25 sell signals for titoli resto del mondo in our ranking, with a signal strength of 63 out of 100.
Sector context
SectorConsumer Discretionary
Benchmark ETFXLY
Sector regimeweak phase
Performance1W -2.38% · 1M -5.91%
UGPA3 belongs to the consumer discretionary sector (reference ETF XLY). The sector is classified weak phase according to our weekly reading.
Confirmation week
three observation weeks closed sideways, sell signal not confirmed by the market
the sell signal did not get confirmed over the three observation weeks: the picture calls for caution and a wait-and-see stance before considering new operations
Setup qualityTrading not recommended
Opening at elevated risk per our model; the asset continues to be analyzed week by week.
DLPrice Action · Last 4 weeks
bearish with warnings (2 segnali di attenzione su 11 componenti)
Score60/ 100
Constructive weekly reading but with two attention signals: the structure deserves close monitoring.
⚠ Attention signals (2)
PA7 · indecisive phasePA10 · distribution phase underway
Daily pattern
Double bottomStrong
Double bottom in the 24 area with an intermediate rebound of 6%.
Reference levels: 24.14 · 24.21
DLIQS · Setup phase
64/ 100
ordinary
3-week slope: coming soon
DLSignal Strength2 / 100
2/ 100
Lowindecisive week
DLNo-Trade Zone
No-Trade Zone · operational range
Zone shaded by prevailing regime
close
20.60
30.73
25.55
25.78
DLDistance from all-time highs0.00%
86/ 100
Ample headroom
Distance from ATH: 0.00% · Tests on highs (last 10w): 0
DLSupport & Resistance
Resistances
25.78Day7-day highrejected 2× · 22/06+0.70%
26.05Daydaily upper Bollinger Band+1.76%
26.38Day100-day moving averagerejected 2× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 18/05+3.06%
26.46Week20-week moving averagerejected 2× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 18/05+3.37%
26.58Day50-day moving averagerejected 2× · 22/06 · broken 1× · 18/05+3.83%
28.06Daydaily Kumo floorrejected 1× · 25/05 · broken 1× · 18/05+9.61%
Supports
25.55Day20-day moving averagerejected 4× · 22/06 · broken 4× · 15/06-0.19%
25.03Daydaily VWMArejected 4× · 22/06 · broken 3× · 15/06-2.21%
24.78Day200-day moving averagerejected 1× · 22/06-3.19%
24.33Week50-week moving averagerejected 1× · 22/06-4.95%
24.14Day7-day lowrejected 2× · 22/06-5.70%
22.50Week100-week moving average-12.11%
Operational plan · summary
Week 4 of the sell signal on Ultrapar Participacoes, and the market has moved in the opposite direction: a 2% up close with buyers at 79% of volume, a sharp reversal from the prior week's -3.5% session where sellers dominated at 81%. The technical picture is losing internal coherence. The MACD histogram has narrowed to -0.73 from -0.75 the week before — a small but continuous improvement over 4 weeks — and CMF climbed back to -0.051 from -0.144, meaning less distribution, though not yet accumulation. RSI at 48.2 is in slow recovery from late-May lows. On the daily chart, a double bottom is forming in the 24 area with a 6% intermediate bounce: a pattern that, if confirmed, would build a base. The sell signal has failed to get confirmation over 3 observation weeks; this fourth week adds to the doubts. Next week, the key read is on CMF: a return to distribution territory and a break of the 24 area support would revive the bearish case; a hold of the current bounce would further undermine the signal's validity.
Operational levelsTrade P&L +1.04%Opened May 29, 2026
SHORT
Entry
25.87
SL1
27.85
+7.65%
SL2
28.18
+8.93%
TP1
23.98
7.32%
TP2
23.16
10.46%
LONG (alternative scenario)
Entry
26.53
SL1
24.56
-7.43%
SL2
24.23
-8.67%
TP1
28.59
7.76%
TP2
29.17
9.93%
Legend of recurring terms click to expand
IQS PhaseSetup Quality Indicator (0-100): descriptor of the asset's phase relative to its volatility norm. Toward 0 = compressed/accumulation · ~50 = ordinary · toward 100 = stretched/mature. Descriptive, not predictive.
Signal StrengthCalibrated 0-100 indicator, re-modulated weekly. For buy signals it is the probability that the weekly signal reaches the first target without hitting the Stop Loss: high value = compelling bullish scenario. For sell signals it measures the amplitude of the signal week's drop: high value = very sharp drop, which may signal exhaustion rather than continuation.
Setup qualitySetup grade at trade opening. Full open = aligned conditions · Selective open = limited constraints · Operation not advised = the model flags elevated risk at entry · Watch/Skip = not operational. The asset continues to be analysed weekly anyway.
SizingCapital allocation relative to the standard budget per position. Full = 100% · Standard = 75% · Reduced = 50% · Minimum = 25%. Modulated by Signal Strength and setup quality flags.
Rank positionOrdering by Signal Strength inside the category × state pair (US Stocks or EU-UK Stocks · Open buys or Sell signals). Helps compare the current position with the others alive in the same category.
Inversion PointWeekly structural level fixing the Stop Loss reference. For a buy signal it is below entry (giving up that level invalidates the bullish reading); for a sell signal it is above entry (a breakthrough invalidates the bearish reading).
No-Trade ZonePrice band between resistance below and support above where entry is not immediately operational. When the NTZ is active, trading is suspended inside the zone; entries become valid above the upper extreme (long) or below the lower extreme (short).
Breakeven stopOperational SL stage for active buy trades: after the first-week confirmation and price advance, the stop is moved to the entry level and trade risk is zeroed out. The structural Stop Loss remains as a long-term reference.
6/8/10-week windowsThree statistical active-management moments on stock buy trades, derived from our backtest. At weeks 6, 8 and 10 trimming 10%, 20% and 30% of the position is suggested; the residual capital (the remaining 40%, untrimmed) can be kept and left to run until the inversion, with a trailing stop on the Inversion Point. Suggestions, not automatic system events.
Statistical TPs / Time exitThe TPs are statistical time+value targets: they estimate where price would be at a given week if the trade ran at average speed (ATR), and decay toward entry at the gate. The real price at the target week can be much higher (strong trend) or never reach them (weak trend). Time exit is the actual gain (entry→close of the gate week): it is why we manage by time — trimming the planned share at the set week often captures a far larger margin than the mathematical TP.
Reinforced tradeQualification of the buy trade when the confirmation week candle closes higher than the signal week. The system recognises the setup as confirmed by the price reaction.
Structural alertsPrice conditions the system considers relevant for setup qualification. Examples: above weekly EMA200 (stock far from a structural bearish framework, making a new short less safe); range trapped (stock trapped in a prolonged horizontal range).
Entry triggerType of event that operationally opens the position: breakout = breach of a key level (7-session high for a long, 7-session low for a short); pullback = pullback to the pivot or 20-day moving average after a first move in the signal direction.
Distance from highsPercentage distance from the all-time high (ATH) and frequency of tests on highs over the last 10 weeks. Close to ATH means limited running room; wide distance means room before the first significant ceiling.
Support & ResistanceThe technical levels above (resistances) and below (supports) price: moving averages, Bollinger bands, Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), historical highs and lows. Each level shows recent tests — how many times over the last ~5 months price reached it and was rejected (grazed, clean touch or decisive rejection) or broke through it (breakout/breakdown), with the date of the latest episode. More rejections = a more solid wall; a recent breakthrough = the wall has fallen.
IQS Slope (3 weeks)The direction of the IQS Phase over the last three weeks: whether the setup's tension is rising, falling or staying flat. It helps tell whether the asset is approaching a stretched/mature phase or unwinding, beyond the point-in-time IQS value.
Trade start dateThe week the current signal opened. Together with the percentage gain since start, it shows how long the trade has been running and where it sits along the management path (scale-out windows, breakeven stop).
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Copyright — All text, analytical methodology and proprietary indicators (IQS Phase, Signal Strength, NTZ, Inversion Point, Entry Protocol, Ranker, Exit Gate) published on aitrading67.com are © Fabio Gentili. Reproduction, in whole or in part, in any form and for any purpose, is prohibited without the author's written permission.