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European banks take charge, energy in retreat

Weekly markets technical analysis: a supportive macro regime and all indices still in a buy, but with strength at its lows. The book stays longer than short, while rotation favours European banks and tech and sinks energy — with this week's index, sector and stock rankings.

European banks take charge, energy in retreat
Weekly recap · June 19, 2026

European banks take charge, energy in retreat

7 indices in buy · 16 new Buy signals · Focus on Technology (US) and Banks (EU) · Volatility easing
📅 June 19, 2026 • Mixed sentiment 16 new signals · 7 indices · 22 sector ETFs
WEEKLY-REPORT
01

The week in view

The macro backdrop stays supportive and all seven indices remain technically in a buy, even if signal strength has sunk to its lows. Beneath the surface the book is longer than short — 218 instruments in a buy versus 173 in a sell — but with a wide band of weakness: this week's fresh signals are balanced, 16 buys and 19 sells. The difference is in the rotation: European banks and US technology lead, while energy brings up the rear, sliding hard on both sides of the Atlantic. A market that holds, but demands selectivity.
02

Macro regime

market context
Risk-On
Volatility is still contained and the dollar steady, but with gold and commodities under tension, money is starting to move more cautiously.
VIX
Neutral
MOVE
Favorable
DXY
Favorable
Breadth
Neutral
03

Main indices

7 Broad ETFs
All seven indices stay in a buy, but it is a tired one: signal strength is low across the board, a sign that the push that carried them here is fading. The US Russell 2000 is the firmest of the group; Italy's FTSE MIB the weakest, its strength down to zero. Almost all of them are working just below their reactivation level: the trend holds, but it is asking for fresh confirmation.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Buy · open
The S&P 500 stays in a buy, but it is the limpest signal of the US group: strength is close to zero. The index works just below its reactivation level, a sign of a trend holding by inertia more than by drive. Wall Street's broadest gauge calls for caution: the structure is not broken, but it needs fresh confirmation before any talk of momentum. One to watch more for what it does not do — give way — than for what it promises.
Signal Strength7 / 100
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ)Buy · open
The Nasdaq 100 keeps its buy signal and rides technology's leadership, Wall Street's strongest sector this week. Strength stays contained, though, and the index works well below its activation level: the push lives in individual tech names more than in the index as a whole. It is the gauge of US risk-on — as long as technology pulls, the Nasdaq stays the reference to watch, but without taking its reacceleration for granted.
Signal Strength17 / 100
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Buy · open
The Russell 2000 is the positive surprise among the indices: with the highest strength of the group, it is the only one showing a shred of residual conviction. US small caps still work below their reactivation level, but their relative resilience says risk appetite has not vanished entirely. It is the index to watch to see whether risk-taking broadens beyond the usual large names, or stays confined to the leaders.
Signal Strength38 / 100
Multi Units France Sicav (CAC)Buy · open
France's CAC 40 stays in a buy but with modest strength, in line with the cautious tone of European indices. It works below its reactivation level, awaiting a confirmation that the continent's banking rebound could provide. Paris is exposed to both luxury and finance, the week's two strong themes: this is where the missing push could come from, if the rotation into financials follows through.
Signal Strength11 / 100
Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc (DAX)Buy · open
Germany's DAX confirms its buy signal with strength that is still contained, much like the CAC. The Frankfurt index benefits from the strength of European industrials but pays for the weakness in autos, well represented among the week's sells. It works below its reactivation level: the trend holds, but its traction depends on which soul — industrial or automotive — gains the upper hand in the sessions ahead.
Signal Strength11 / 100
Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF (MIB)Buy · open
The FTSE MIB is the most delicate case: it stays technically in a buy, but with signal strength at zero, the lowest of all the indices. And yet the Italian market is exposed to the very theme leading the week — banks — and several Italian financials top our open-trade rankings. That is the contradiction to resolve: a limp index sitting above a basket of lively names. Worth looking at the individual stocks more than at the index itself.
Signal Strength0 / 100
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (ISF)Buy · open
The UK's FTSE 100 is the only index practically resting on its reactivation level rather than below it like the others: it is the closest to a potential restart. Strength stays contained, but that position makes it the group's most responsive to a bullish confirmation. London, less exposed to technology and more to defensive and financial sectors, can serve as a testing ground: if risk returns, the British index is well placed to catch it first.
Signal Strength11 / 100
05

Confirmed Buy signals

at the confirmation week
The buy signals that have cleared their confirmation week are the most interesting group for the method: a signal that survives its first test rests on firmer ground than a freshly born one. This week the confirmation comes from two neighboring worlds. In the United States, cruise lines hold up — Carnival and Royal Caribbean, both with high strength — alongside a major bank, Bank of America. In Europe the thread is sharper still: finance and luxury, led by BPER Banca, the insurer Unipol and two luxury names, Ferrari and Kering. Cyclical consumer names and financials confirming in the same week point to a market willing to take selective risk. It is not a call to act, but a solid starting point to dig deeper: the individual posts are worth reading.
US
1
CCL
Carnival Corporation
Strength 66
2
RCL
Royal Caribbean Group
Strength 66
3
BAC
Bank of America Corp
Strength 35
EU/UK
1
BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
Strength 64
2
KER
Kering SA
Strength 64
3
RACE
Ferrari NV
Strength 49
4
UNI
UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI SPA
Strength 44
06

Ranker rankings

Top by Signal Strength
US stocksThis week's new Buy signals
This week's fresh US buys share a trait: high-volatility profiles that demand a steady hand. Leading is Arista Networks, a fresh signal with high strength — but with price glued to its highs, our model suggests waiting for a pullback before acting. Just behind, Hims & Hers, a wide opportunity but a jumpy one, with entry tied to a break of recent highs. GE Vernova reaches week 1 with medium conviction and elevated opening risk, one to track step by step. Booking Holdings shows a setup that is not stretched yet carries a few price-action warnings: an acceptable entry, to be handled with discipline. Home Depot rounds out the list, built on a double bottom and still structurally fragile, but with some of the widest running room in the group. Five different stories, one shared caveat: here, managing the excitement matters most. Each is worth a closer look.
US stocksBuy signals from previous weeks
Among the open US positions sit some of the most mature trades in the basket. Fortinet leads the ranking: at week 7, up more than 60% with every model target already hit. Sandisk is the extreme case — over 40 weeks of running and an off-the-charts return — now managed with residual capital only and a stop that trails the price. Advanced Micro Devices and Micron tell the same semiconductor story: triple-digit gains, stops already at breakeven, risk zeroed out and model coverage closing. Roku rounds it out, its three targets hit in sequence and the final management window approaching. There is no fresh headline here, but a lesson in method: how a winning trade is walked to the finish without handing the gain back. Worth seeing how it is done.
US stocksSell signals (decline)
On the US sell side — the most crowded corner of the week — the picture is one of distribution taking hold. American Water Works opens the list: two rebounds now spent and sellers back in control. Vanguard Energy brings energy's collapse into the ranking, a sector in full weakness and still far from its long-term supports. Abbott shows a mixed read — momentum recovering yet the latest candle dominated by sellers — at week 13 of a trade already in profit. Sharper still are Li Auto and Pfizer: the first accelerating lower after a failed bounce, the second finally breaking its range and finding a first confirmation. The common thread is that these are not sudden drops but declines that ripen. For anyone who studies the downside, each rewards a closer read.
EU-UK stocksThis week's new Buy signals
Europe's fresh opportunities are few but revolve around the week's strong theme — finance — as the continent's banks lead every market. SFL opens the group on Borsa Italiana, with the most solid weekly structure of the four — a double bottom, aligned moving averages, price above the Ichimoku cloud — and medium strength. Azimut and AXA ride the push in financials and insurance, but both already trade near all-time highs: little room before the next resistance, where selectivity pays better than chasing. Vinci closes with a still-weak signal and a locked range, to be approached with reduced size. Four names that tap the strength of European financials, yet ones our model suggests handling with measure, preferably on a pullback. Worth watching closely, not chasing.
EU-UK stocksBuy signals from previous weeks
Among Europe's open positions, German technology leads: Infineon ranks first of 61, at week 9, up more than 60% with risk already zeroed out. Right behind sits an Italian banking block that is the real story of the season: Banco BPM and Banca Monte dei Paschi, both up double digits and in the model's final management windows. Between them, the luxury of Brunello Cucinelli, at week 10, opening its last trimming window right now. Anglo American closes the group, up more than 10% from entry and in the final leg of its roadmap — the residual-capital stage. This is the cluster that best shows where the strength of European banks and chips paid off in recent weeks. Worth seeing how each is handling the home stretch.
EU-UK stocksSell signals (decline)
Europe's sells blend autos, healthcare and consumer names. At the top, Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane, with a bearish weekly structure and a mature picture, at week 2. The heart of the block, though, is the German car maker: BMW prints the heaviest candle of its cycle — the sharpest drop so far — while Volkswagen gets a fresh signal whose very magnitude reads as possible exhaustion rather than confirmation. Siemens Healthineers sees its decline regain momentum after a pause, selling pressure building again. Campari closes the list, where the week's uptick is only a defensive bounce: distribution keeps accelerating. On several of these names the daily chart shows double bottoms forming — signals to monitor, not to take for granted. For followers of the downside, this block rewards careful reading.
Methodology note — Nothing written here constitutes financial advice, a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments, or any kind of recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss; the user acts under their own responsibility. Signal Strength is an internal analytical framework used only to rank relative technical quality within the basket. © Fabio Gentili.
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