The week opens quietly, a pause after the prior Friday's drop, and ends with a change of weather no one had penciled in. Tuesday the market attempts a rebound, led by semiconductors and memory chips; Wednesday earnings from Alphabet and Tesla disappoint where it counts — the first on capital spending, the second on margins — and the bounce fades within a session and a half. From there the real story takes over: the collapse of the US-Iran truce puts the Strait of Hormuz back in play and drives crude higher, up more than 29% in four weeks. Costlier energy revives inflation worries and the rates market comes under pressure: bond-market volatility has been climbing for weeks, tail risk is rising, and the spread between Italian and German government bonds widens, a sign euro-area sovereigns are demanding a growing premium. Capital rotates accordingly: energy, defense, utilities and materials rise, while tech and consumer names give way. The underlying regime still holds — the monthly structure stays broad — but the temperature has shifted, and with it the assumption under which many of our signals were born.

The seven indices stay almost all in buy mode, but with conviction at its lows: the Nasdaq 100 is the only one flipped to a sell, the epicenter of the tech pullback, while the S&P 500 holds its signal by a whisker. The small-cap Russell 2000 keeps the group's highest strength; in Europe, Paris, Frankfurt, Milan and London close the week higher but with weak underlying thrust and a worsening MACD across the board.

The rotation lays the theme bare, and from both sides it points toward energy and defense. In the US, energy leads (+3.36%) alongside utilities (+2.48%), while consumer discretionary (-5.22%) and communication services (-3.93%) collapse at the bottom: money leaves growth for the sectors geopolitics rewards. In Europe the tilt is even sharper on energy: oil and gas in front (+4.02%), followed by basic resources (+3.13%) and banks (+2.20%).

Thirteen buys that launched last week cleared their confirmation week by closing higher — five in the US, three in Europe and the UK, and five in the rest of the world — and that confirmation matters, because a trade's second week is its first real test: it separates the signal that holds from the one that fades. The overall signature speaks the language of rotation. In the US, energy and oil names dominate — Petrobras, Occidental, BP, ConocoPhillips — with Fastly the lone tech exception. From Europe come Shell, the utility A2A and financial Deutsche Börse. From the rest of the world, Brazil brings Light, Petrobras, Banco Bradesco, Gerdau and Klabin. Energy, materials and value financials: the very sectors the week rewarded. The usual caveat always applies — past data do not guarantee future results — but a signal that survives its first check rests on firmer ground.