The biggest story of the day carries no company name. With the US-Iran escalation reaching its eleventh consecutive night of strikes, and threats over the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, Brent and WTI climbed more than 3% in a single session. Crude has been rising for a month, and that has shifted expectations for US monetary policy: markets now price a 55-60% probability of a rate hike in September, where only days ago the debate was about the timing of the next cut.

The rest of the session follows from there. Wall Street closed slightly lower, the S&P 500 down 0.14% and the Nasdaq 0.57%, while Europe rallied on cooler-than-expected UK inflation: London up more than 1.2%, Milan close to 1%, Paris 0.89%.

Alphabet posted revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year on year, with cloud growing 81% to $24.8 billion and a contract backlog above $500 billion. Strong numbers, and yet the stock lost about 4% after hours: free cash flow turned negative under $45 billion of capital expenditure in a single quarter.

Tesla followed the same script. Revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% and above the $25.71 billion expected, record quarterly deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, self-driving subscriptions up 56%. But adjusted earnings came in at $0.33 per share against $0.51 expected, and the operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, with operating profit down 57% year on year. The stock shed roughly 3% after the bell.

Elsewhere in the same batch, ServiceNow delivered solid results — revenue of $3.98 billion, up 23.6%, an earnings beat and raised guidance — after a heavy session and a year down 38%. GE Vernova fell 6.14% despite a revenue beat, on missed earnings and continued weakness in its wind division. Against the tide, Northrop Grumman recovered 2.54%, a day late in digesting raised guidance and a record $105 billion backlog.

Super Micro Computer was the single largest move of the US session, rising between 13% and 26% depending on the moment: the previous day it had announced a record backlog above $60 billion and expected gross margin between 15% and 17%, against prior guidance of just over 8%. AMD gained 8.1% during its own AI event in San Francisco, after Bank of America flagged a likely beat-and-raise on AI server demand. The rest of the group was more cautious: Intel fell 3.39%, giving back part of the previous day's 8.6% jump, while Nvidia added a more modest 2.3% with no company-specific catalyst.

On the other side, Reddit lost 9.18%, the sharpest decline among the names we track, on disappointing quarterly guidance and cooling expectations for AI data-licensing revenue, as regulatory scrutiny of such deals increases. SpaceX fell 6.70% as its post-IPO slide continues: short interest has climbed to 32% of the free float, around $25 billion, from just $40 million a month ago. Cathie Wood's ARK funds nonetheless bought into the weakness.

In Milan the session was dominated by the contest around Monte dei Paschi, up 2.4%. Intesa Sanpaolo, up 1.3%, remains the protagonist with its ongoing public offer — 1.6 newly issued shares plus €1 in cash for each MPS share — while speculation persists about an alternative merger between Banco BPM and MPS as a defensive move, backed by Crédit Agricole, BPM's largest shareholder with 29.3% of the capital. To be competitive, that merger would need to offer between 0.75 and 0.77 Banco BPM shares per MPS share, an estimated premium of 3.8% to 8.5%, with gross annual synergies above €1.1 billion. The MPS board reviews its half-year accounts on 6 August, a date that may prove decisive for the alternative plan too. Unipol gained 2.2% on its agreement with Intesa over branch disposals; Banco BPM fell 0.9%.

UniCredit closed little changed but has its catalyst in the hours that follow: the board led by Andrea Orcel met to approve the half-year accounts, with the statement expected before Thursday's open. Meanwhile Moody's placed the bank's rating under review for a possible upgrade, in light of the Commerzbank consolidation. Away from the banking contest, Leonardo signed a contract with Indonesia's PT ESystem Solutions for twelve trainer aircraft for the Jakarta Ministry of Defence, while Saipem won an offshore drilling contract off Ivory Coast worth about $260 million from an Eni subsidiary.

GSK gained 6.19% despite an announcement that looked negative at first sight: revenue growth will slow this year to between 3% and 5% at constant currency, down from 7% in 2025, on the HIV patent cliff and an agreement with the US administration to lower prices. The market rewarded guidance that was less bad than feared, and HSBC raised its rating; the same broker cut its view on AstraZeneca, in a re-rating that shifts preferences within the sector without changing the overall call. RELX continued to suffer, down 3.30%, alongside London Stock Exchange Group, down 1.50%: both are weighed down by disintermediation fears sparked by the launch of a new AI tool for corporate legal teams.

In Paris the stock of the day was Airbus, up between 6.35% and 7%: the manufacturer presented 2029 profit targets of €12 to €13 billion, confirmed its 2026 guidance, announced a €5 billion buyback ahead of schedule and outlined a production ramp across the A220, A320, A330 and A350 families.

Nike lost 2% after announcing an overhaul of its online sales in China: from January it will sell only through its own site, its app and the leading platforms, ending sales through current distributors entirely. The decision follows a 12% drop in Chinese revenue and 32% for the Converse brand; the chief executive bought $1 million of stock in the open market the same day.

Palantir fell between 3.5% and 6.1% on a combination of factors: scrutiny from the UK statistics regulator over its national health service contract, the appearance of a free open-source rival replicating some of its software's functions, valuation concerns ahead of the 3 August results, and a technical break below its long-term moving averages. In crypto, rotation towards the data-centre narrative kept rewarding Riot Platforms, up 8.79%, and Cipher Mining, up 6.86%, while Coinbase gave back 5.53% after the previous day's 11% rally.

In Brazil, banks drove an otherwise flat index: Banco do Brasil rose 3.52% and was the most traded stock of the session, in a move analysts describe as conviction-driven rather than technical. Localiza fell 2.51% on the government programme cutting tax on new vehicles, which continues to weigh on the whole car-rental sector.