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Indices pinned to their highs while single stocks split apart

Weekly stock market technical analysis: index ETFs a whisker from their highs with conviction at lows, single stocks swinging 20% on earnings and gold miners leading the fresh buys. Sector rotation, trade setups and the full performance rankings.

Indices pinned to their highs while single stocks split apart
Weekly recap · August 3-7, 2026

Indices pinned to their highs while single stocks split apart

6 indices buying, 1 selling · 27 new Buy signals · Focus on Technology (US) and Technology (EU)
📅 August 7, 2026 ▲ Constructive sentiment 27 new signals · 7 indices · 18 sector ETFs
WEEKLY-REPORT
01

The week in view

The week opens with a tension unwinding: the strike on Iran called off over the weekend deflates the geopolitical premium on crude, oil sheds more than 5% in a single session and equity markets celebrate the way you celebrate a tax being lifted. Amazon becomes the first company past $3 trillion in market value. Then the market stops moving as one. From midweek the rotation into healthcare and materials lasts exactly one day, and Friday delivers the signature of these five sessions: the indices sit still within a whisker of their highs — under half a point for six of the seven we track — while individual stocks swing 20% in both directions. What moves them is earnings, not sectors: Newmont gains 20.6% and Barrick Mining 18.9% riding gold, Unity Software rockets 35.6%, while Dutch Bros drops 19.5% on results, SolarEdge 22.9% and Cipher Digital 23%. Technology takes the lead again on both sides of the Atlantic; energy is the only sector in the red in America and in Europe alike. This is a week where the index says little and the name says everything: the single cases are worth reading one by one.
02

Macro regime

market context
Risk-On
The regime stays supportive: volatility compressed, stress gauges retreating and market participation slowly broadening.
VIX
Favorable
MOVE
Favorable
DXY
Neutral
Breadth
Neutral
03

Main indices

7 Broad ETFs
Six of the seven indices we track remain on the buy side and close the week higher, all within half a point of their own highs — the lone exception is the FTSE 100, still the furthest away. The Nasdaq 100 is the only one still on the sell side, and it gained 5.1% on the week: a signal the market has been contradicting session after session. Under the surface, though, conviction is thin: signal strength is low across the board, and the FTSE MIB — the most profitable of the group at +15.8% since entry — has it down at zero.
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Buy · open
The S&P 500 closes the week up 3.5% and is back within half a point of its record, with the MACD completing a bullish crossover and the weekly RSI at 67. The buy signal has been running 17 weeks and carries the trade to +13.8%. Signal strength, however, has fallen to 7 out of 100: the move is there, the conviction behind it has thinned. It is the portrait of a mature advance that still works without pushing any harder.
Signal Strength7 / 100
Invesco QQQ Trust Series I (QQQ)Sell
The Nasdaq 100 is the only one of the seven still on the sell side, and this week it gained 5.1%: the market has been contradicting the signal session after session, and strength at 2 out of 100 says the decline is all but spent. The MACD stays in negative territory and the index trades 3.4% off its highs, the widest gap in the group after London. The 7.2% surge in the tech sector over five sessions explains neatly why the decline never got going.
Signal Strength2 / 100
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)Buy · open
The small-cap Russell 2000 gains 3.6% and moves back within half a point of its all-time high, carrying the group's highest strength — 17 out of 100, which says how thin conviction is everywhere. The trade has been running 17 weeks and ranks second for profitability at +15.4% since entry. The MACD stays negative, a contrast with a price pressing on records: this is the index to watch if the rotation broadens beyond the mega caps.
Signal Strength17 / 100
Multi Units France Sicav (CAC)Buy · open
France's CAC 40 gains 2.4% and closes to within a fraction of a point of its all-time high, with the MACD improving and the weekly RSI at 65.7. The buy signal is in week 17 and worth +7.8% since entry, the least profitable of the three big continental names. Strength at 11 out of 100 confirms the theme of the week: the structure holds, the push that built it has been spent. Paris stays pinned to its highs without the force to clear them.
Signal Strength11 / 100
Amundi DAX II UCITS ETF Acc (DAX)Buy · open
Germany's DAX closes up 2.7% and holds within half a point of its record, with the MACD improving and the weekly RSI at 62.6, the most contained among the large European names. The trade is in week 16 and running at +6.3%. With strength at 8 out of 100 the read matches Paris, but there is an extra element here: European technology, up 6.28% on the week, weighs more on the German market than elsewhere, and it shows.
Signal Strength8 / 100
Amundi FTSE MIB UCITS ETF (MIB)Buy · open
Italy's FTSE MIB gains 3.1% and is the most profitable of the group, +15.8% over 17 weeks, but it is also the most fatigued: signal strength sits at zero, the outright floor of the basket. A weekly RSI of 71.6 puts it in overbought territory, the highest of the seven, with price still half a point from its own high. Milan has run harder than anyone and is now stretched: direction holds, the energy in reserve is gone.
Signal Strength0 / 100
iShares Core FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (ISF)Buy · open
The UK's FTSE 100 is the week's laggard: up just 0.5%, and still 7.3% below its own high, by far the widest gap in the group. The trade is in week 17 and worth barely 2.4%. The MACD is improving and a weekly RSI of 63 stays orderly, but strength at 8 out of 100 adds no conviction. London paid for a hard week among its large pharmaceutical names, and the distance from the highs leaves room should the picture improve.
Signal Strength8 / 100
04

Sector rotation

US · Europe
In the US, technology owns the week at 7.2%, followed by materials (+4.8%) and consumer discretionary (+3.25%); at the bottom sit utilities (-1.67%) and above all energy, down 3.44% and the worst American sector. Europe repeats the picture almost line for line: technology gains 6.28% and basic resources 5.15%, while oil and gas gives up 2.15%. Energy is the only sector in the red on both sides of the Atlantic, and it is there while crude still holds a 6% gain on the month: a divergence confirmed across two independent markets, and one worth watching.

US sectors

European sectors

05

Confirmed Buy signals

at the confirmation week
Ten buys that started last week cleared their confirmation week by closing higher — five in the United States and five across Europe and the UK — and that check matters, because a trade's second week is its first real test: it separates the signal that holds from the one that fades. The collective signature is sharp and speaks a single language, that of software and digital services. In the US, confirmation reaches Pulmonx (strength 87), Zscaler (86), Accenture (74), Intuit (74) and Autodesk (70). In Europe the group is tighter still: SAP (87), Capgemini (83), BAE Systems (83), Thales (83) and Kering (83). Alongside the technology names sits European defense, which carries a longer story, and French luxury, moving to its own rhythm. From the rest of the world, no confirmations this week. These are ten names that have already passed one test: their cards are worth reading.
US
1
LUNG
Pulmonx Corp.
Strength 87
2
ZS
Zscaler Inc
Strength 86
3
ACN
Accenture Plc Class A
Strength 74
4
INTU
Intuit Inc.
Strength 74
5
ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
Strength 70
EU/UK
1
SAP
SAP SE
Strength 87
2
CAP
Capgemini SE
Strength 83
3
BA.
BAE Systems plc
Strength 83
4
HO
Thales SA
Strength 83
5
KER
Kering SA
Strength 83
Rest of the World

None this week

06

Ranker rankings

Top by Signal Strength
US stocksThis week's new Buy signals
Twenty fresh US opportunities, and the top of the table weaves two stories together: gold and technology. Leading is First Solar (strength 76), bouncing off its 20-day average to close up 18.5% while the tech complex runs hot; two flags on the candle — fading body conviction, pronounced distribution — argue for reading that bounce carefully. Right behind, Zoom (72) adds another 8.8% on top of the prior week's 9.2% and flips the picture, with the opening rated high-risk. Then the two miners, and that is the news: Barrick Mining (72) jumps 18.9%, clearing its seven-session high with earnings landing this week; Newmont (72) goes further at +20.6%, though the daily RSI is already at 72 and the quality band marks trading as not recommended. Rounding out the five is Kodak (76), up 19.5% on a bullish engulfing bar, its confirmation week still open. The common thread is stocks moving hard and fast: cases to study patiently, not to chase.
US stocksBuy signals from previous weeks
The open US positions number 132, and the top of the list shows how the same picture can wear two faces in a single week. Fortinet leads (strength 87), slipping 1.4% as it bumps into the same wall a second time: sellers took 90% of volume in the latest candle, the exact mirror of the week before. PayPal (86) closes up 3.3% and is back a step from its recent high, the trade running near a 27% gain, but buyer dominance is fading: the discipline is to wait for a pullback before adding. Snowflake (87) surges 12.7% with all four averages aligned and buyers controlling 90% of daily volume. Unity Software (86) is the outlier, up 35.6% in five sessions with residual capital near a 66% gain after coverage was completed. At the other end, Datadog (87) reverses hard and gives up 12.7% with sellers at 87%, though the trade still sits at +80.67% since entry. On these names the job is no longer opening: it is deciding how much profit to defend.
US stocksSell signals (decline)
The active US sell signals number 122, and this week the news is earnings. Dutch Bros (strength 100) opens its decline at the ceiling: results landed and the stock sheds 19.5% in five sessions, flipping a long trade that was up 15.6% just a week earlier. Edison International (100) gives up another 6.5% after the 8% drop that had already closed the prior buy below its stop. Cipher Digital (69) plunges 23% with 97% of volume on the sell side, a sharp reversal from the week before, and the short holds a 14% gain. SolarEdge (69) loses 22.9% in earnings week with sellers at 98%: the decline finds fresh momentum exactly when it looked to be fading, and the short is more than 38% in the money. Kinder Morgan (66) rounds things out at -4.1%, a stalled picture that has yet to break either way. Names to watch, not to open from cold.
EU-UK stocksThis week's new Buy signals
The fresh European and UK opportunities number six, and nearly all of them are born from a sell signal that burned out. Rheinmetall leads (strength 75): after the prior week's 9.9% surge it adds only 0.6%, its run of higher lows struggling for fuel, and the model opens it cautiously with week one still to be confirmed. Anglo American (69) climbs 7.7% back toward its recent highs on three rising daily lows, its old decline having already faded to strength 2. Azimut (47) closes up 3.8%, completing a reversal that began right at the Inversion Point, with the MACD crossing higher and the averages aligned, though price is already working the highs. Vinci (47) accelerates 2.3% as European construction rallies (+2.6% on the week), but the picture stays low-conviction. Rounding out is the European basic resources ETF (47), up 5.2% with four higher lows: contracting volume argues against chasing the bounce.
EU-UK stocksBuy signals from previous weeks
The open European and UK positions number 73, and the top is almost entirely software and industry. Bayer leads (strength 89), up 3.7% and still close to its recent highs, in week 6 at +5.98% since entry: candle-body conviction is starting to soften, though, and the first trimming window has already triggered. SAP (87) posts another strong week at +12.9%, with not a single warning flag on its weekly structure — yet a daily RSI near 75 argues against chasing it. Fincantieri (87) runs the other way, down 5% with two flags on the candle and buyer dominance crumbling, though it holds +11.27% since the signal. Brunello Cucinelli (83) cools to +2.4% with 69% of volume back on the sell side, the trade climbing to 7.4% in week 17. Capgemini (83) closes its confirmation week up 6.6%, holding the signal that fired seven days earlier. A block where management matters more than entry.
EU-UK stocksSell signals (decline)
The active European and UK sell signals number 42, and the top of the table cleanly separates the decline finding fresh speed from the one running down. Tenaris (strength 63) is the most directional: in earnings week it sheds 7.2% with sellers at 92% of volume, and the signal, live for seven weeks, regains momentum after a long stretch sideways. AstraZeneca (61) drops 5.8% and breaks the three-week range, with buyers accounting for just 17% of daily volume and the ADX climbing: the decline is gaining conviction. At the opposite end sit three names fading out: Italgas (50) closes almost flat after the prior week's 11% plunge, boxed between its seven-day high and low with the short more than 10% in the money; RWE (45) slips 1.7% while money flow keeps improving, a stalemate rather than a fresh leg down; Snam (44) slows to -0.8% with sellers easing from 87% to 62%. Positions to monitor, not to open here.
Rest of the World stocksThis week's new Buy signals
The rest of the world offers a single fresh opportunity, and it comes from a long way down. PDG Realty (strength 84) closes up 5.7% after a month pinned to extreme oversold, its weekly RSI stuck at 19.9: our model flags a new buy signal, the first after twelve weeks of managing a sell. Brazil's financial sector stays in a strength phase and works in its favor, but the latest candle still shows sellers in charge and the structure is among the most fragile on the board. This is the kind of case worth watching to understand how a reversal is born, rather than one to rush into: next week's confirmation will say whether the bounce has foundations or is simply the unwinding of an excess.
Rest of the World stocksBuy signals from previous weeks
The open positions in the rest of the world number 13, all Brazilian, and this week almost all of them run the same way: down. Light (strength 86) sheds 4.9%, handing back the prior bounce, with August 13 earnings landing this week and lifting event risk. Ultrapar (74) gives up 5.4% in a clear divergence — price falling while volume rises — and the trade slides from a 20% gain to 13.6%, its stop already at breakeven. Cosan (70) drops 9.8%, reversing the previous week's bounce, with the weekly RSI down to 36.7 and results due August 14. Banco Bradesco (66) loses 5.3% moving against its own sector, which gained 1.16%: price closed below the first stop level flagged in last week's card. Itaúsa (66) sheds 4.4% with cash flow sliding into marked distribution. A block under pressure, to be read name by name with the earnings calendar in hand.
Rest of the World stocksSell signals (decline)
The active sell signals in the rest of the world number 17, and the top tells of mature declines that keep delivering. Gafisa (strength 96) sheds another 14.8%, stretching its losing streak to four straight weeks with the weekly RSI around 16, brushing extreme oversold; earnings land this week. Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (76) drops a further 5.6% without recovering the prior fall: the signal has been running 25 weeks and the short is more than 47% in the money, with results due August 12. Even Construtora (60) posts another 5.6% decline, the ADX climbing to 36.1 as the move gains conviction, the trade beyond 39%. Lojas Renner (56) gives up 8.9% under the weight of earnings and closes its confirmation week in the red, yet in the final session buyers took 76.8% of volume: an early sign of fading worth tracking. Sabesp (56) loses 2.9% with daily buy volume collapsing to 10%. Mature positions, to be monitored week by week.
Methodology note — Nothing written here constitutes financial advice, a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments, or any kind of recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss; the user acts under their own responsibility. Signal Strength is an internal analytical framework used only to rank relative technical quality within the basket. © Fabio Gentili.
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