The weekly technical analysis closed on Friday produced 12 new buy signals, and today they share a feature that matters more than any single name: all 12 have the daily signal aligned with the weekly one. In the previous session almost four out of ten were born already at odds with the short term. I refresh this table every day: that is how you see which ones hold and which start to crack.

It starts on Tuesday 28 with an already crowded slate: PayPalLong, Coca-ColaLong, BoeingShort, VisaLong and FordShort all report, and the Banco BPM board meets the same day.

Wednesday 29 is the pivot. The Federal Reserve decision lands in the American afternoon, with a hold in the 3.50-3.75% range expected; after the close come MicrosoftShort and MetaLong, two names on which our model holds opposite positions and which will be measured the same evening by the same yardstick, capital spending. In Europe the same day brings results from Eni and Intesa Sanpaolo.

Thursday 30 belongs to AppleLong and AmazonShort — again two opposing signals on the same date — alongside Coinbase, FerrariLong and EnelLong, while the Monte dei Paschi board convenes in Siena. Friday closes with Exxon MobilLong and ChevronLong, against a Brent price four points lower than a week ago. In a market that punishes capital spending and rewards artificial-intelligence monetisation, guidance rather than the quarter itself will set the direction.

Friday's macro story was the retreat in oil. Brent shed about 4% towards 96.8 dollars, its widest one-day fall since late June, with US crude following. The move was pinned on hopes of talks between Washington and Tehran after the escalation earlier in the week. One caveat is owed here: reporting on the Iranian file is mixed across sources, and the political reconstruction deserves care. The price reaction, by contrast, was unambiguous.

The relief landed squarely on European equities, all higher: the DAX up 1.36%, the FTSE MIB up 0.95%, the FTSE 100 up 0.91% and the CAC 40 up 0.88%. Wall Street fared worse, with the SPYLong only just above water and the QQQShort still carrying the weight of semiconductors and of the fear around AI capital spending — the same fear that on Thursday wiped roughly 800 billion dollars off the megacap tech complex. The gold price barely moved, up 0.2%, the dollar held with the euro at 1.137, and the VIX slipped to 18.6: a calm reading that the SKEW index, the tail-risk gauge, keeps contradicting with a warning of latent stress.

The European Central Bank had already held on Thursday 23, with the deposit rate at 2.25% and a unanimous decision; attention now moves to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. Cheaper Brent is good news for inflation and bad news for the oil majors: Exxon MobilLong and ChevronLong close the week with their own numbers on Friday, and our signal is long on both while the commodity that feeds their margins is deflating. That divergence belongs at the top of the page, because it is the first thing to watch in the days ahead.

IntelShort delivered the most instructive case of the week: Intel stock fell even though the second quarter came in comfortably ahead — revenue of 16.1 billion dollars, up 25% year on year and the fastest growth in roughly fifteen years, with adjusted earnings of 0.42 dollars a share against 0.21 expected — and the stock had jumped 13% in after-hours trade. It closed Friday down 7.9%. The reversal has a precise name: capital spending above 20 billion and a net loss of 11 billion. In this phase the market reads the spending line before the revenue line, and the punishment lands even on an excellent quarter.

The same thread runs through two more names. AlphabetShort fell 7% in the reaction to its 22 July results, guilty of lifting 2026 capital expenditure to a range of 195 to 205 billion; TeslaShort comes out of its worst week since 2022 after earnings of 0.33 dollars a share against 0.50 expected, despite record revenue on deliveries, with Piper Sandler cutting its target to 450 dollars. Our weekly signal is short on all three and the session bore it out.

On the other side sit the companies that monetise artificial intelligence rather than fund it. SalesforceShort gained 4.3% and ServiceNowShort around 6% on enterprise and government contracts, including a 1.6 billion agreement with the US veterans department; OracleShort advanced after winning a ten-year Pentagon contract worth up to 7 billion. Our model is still short all three, and all three rose on Friday: we state it without hedging, because the weekly signal has not turned and one strong session does not turn it. Rounding off the picture, AppleLong was the best megacap of the day at plus 3.5%, on a Baird upgrade that prices its capital-light approach to artificial intelligence as a defensive asset, ahead of results on 30 July.

Away from technology the quarterly results told very different stories. American ExpressShort saw its stock lose around 5%: earnings per share beat at 4.53 dollars, but revenue of 19.64 billion fell short of consensus, and even full-year revenue guidance lifted to 10% growth could not rescue the session. Charles SchwabLong, by contrast, went nowhere after a record quarter with earnings per share up 42% and revenue of 7.07 billion: when the good news is already in the price, the good news stops moving the price.

In energy the standout was SLBLong, the best performer in the S&P 500 at plus 10.4% on a clean quarter of 8.97 billion in revenue: our signal there is long and the day rewarded it outright. HalliburtonShort was also firm earlier in the week, and there we are on the opposite side: our model is short a stock that has run with the rest of oilfield services, and that position needs close supervision.

Defence had already filed its results at the start of the week: Lockheed MartinLong up 10% and RTXLong up 7% on beat-and-raise quarters with record backlogs, while Northrop GrummanShort fell 5.6% despite its own beat, penalised by programme costs: three names in one sector, three outcomes, and our signals were aligned on all three. HoneywellLong added 6.4% on its debut as a pure-play automation company after the aerospace spin-off, and Eli LillyLong ranked among healthcare's leaders on positive late-stage obesity data.

Milan ran on the sector's theme of the year, banking consolidation, and financials pulled the index higher on Friday: BPERLong led the FTSE MIB with a gain of 2.75%, followed by Intesa SanpaoloLong at 2.5%, MediobancaLong at 2.17%, Monte dei PaschiLong at 2.14% and Banco BPMLong at 2.05%.

The corporate picture is as tangled as the chart is clean. Intesa has filed with the market regulator a cash-and-share offer worth roughly 30.6 billion euros for Monte dei Paschi, while Banco BPM has floated a merger of equals with the same target. The two dates that matter fall two days apart — the Banco BPM board on Tuesday 28 and the Monte dei Paschi board on Thursday 30 — and behind them sits the Mediobanca-Generali file, with a 13.2% stake in the insurer passing to Siena through the offer on Piazzetta Cuccia, due to close in the third quarter.

A separate chapter for UniCreditLong, which posted the best half-year in its history with net profit close to 6.3 billion and full-year 2026 ambition raised above 11 billion. The stock had shed 4.7% on Thursday to profit-taking before recovering on Friday, helped by Barclays lifting its target to 90.20 euros. Our weekly signal is long on all six banking names, and these are trades that have been running for weeks.

STMicroelectronicsShort gave up another 2.41% on Friday after Thursday's 15% slide: growing numbers, guidance judged weak, and the market did the rest. In luxury, MonclerShort lost around 8% after results, with Jefferies cutting its target to 53 euros and keeping a wait-and-see rating. Our signal was already short on both before the drop.

The worst performer on the main board was Poste ItalianeShort was the worst of the main board, its stock down 3.65%: a half-year billed as a record triggered profit-taking, a script that has become familiar this season. Here too our model was already positioned to the downside.

In the green, LeonardoShort added 1.2% after the chief executive hinted that another country could join the next-generation fighter programme within twelve months: here we sit on the opposite side, our signal is short on a stock that rose, and it needs saying without varnish. SaipemLong was supported by a Rothschild target increase to 5.8 euros with a buy rating. EniLong closed just below the line at minus 0.7% as Brent retreated, ahead of its quarter on Wednesday 29: our signal is long while the commodity moved against it, another point to supervise this week.

The heaviest corporate story of the weekend runs along the London-Munich axis: AllianzLong is buying the Singapore life arm of HSBCLong for about 2.1 billion dollars, with an exclusive fifteen-year bancassurance agreement attached. For the German group it is the strategic entry into Singapore after the failed attempt on Income Insurance; for the British bank, up 1.7%, it is another step in trimming back towards the Asian core. Our model is long on both and the news pushed the same way.

In the United Kingdom defence kept the FTSE 100 supported on the back of the national investment plan, while the energy majors ShellLong and BPLong tracked crude lower: our signal is long on both and the session went the other way, exactly as with their American peers. The London calendar fills up immediately, with AstraZenecaShort due on Monday and GSKLong on Tuesday: two pharmaceutical results arriving on opposing weekly signals.

In Germany the DAX was carried by SAPShort, with cloud backlog growing 26 to 27%, even after the group cut its operating profit guidance on acquisition dilution: our signal remains short while the stock pulls the index, and this is the second consecutive week we have flagged it. At the opposite end, Volkswagen fell 2.4% with operating profit down 9.5%, deliveries down 8.6% on the Chinese collapse and expected revenue revised lower; the carmaker is not among the names we cover with a dedicated page and we mention it as a benchmark.

The weekend's event came from the sky: the thirteenth Starship test flight succeeded, the first since the June listing, deploying twenty next-generation satellites and relighting the engines in orbit. The share reaction — the company is not among the names we cover with a dedicated page, so we name it in plain text — has been muted so far: the market keeps watching cash burn ahead of engineering milestones, and it will be one of the names to observe at the open. In the jitters before the launch, Rocket LabShort had dropped about 7% on Friday, in line with our short signal.

In China, AlibabaLong remains supported by artificial-intelligence catalysts: its models have been cleared to power Apple's voice assistant features in the country, with the prospect of limited access to the high-end NvidiaShort processors destined for the Chinese market. It is one of the rare cases where a single headline works in favour of a long position and a short one at the same time, for different reasons.

In crypto, CoinbaseShort and StrategyShort had rallied earlier in the week, up 11% and 5% respectively, the latter on a fresh buyback plan, with bitcoin holding its ground. Our model is short both and that rally went against us: the weekly has not turned, but these are two positions to watch closely, all the more so with Coinbase reporting on Thursday 30.

Brazil was the only major market moving the other way: the Ibovespa lost 1.52% to close at 174,042 points, importing risk aversion from Wall Street and taking the full force of the drop in crude, with the real around 5.09 to the dollar and the policy rate on hold at 14.25%.

Among financials, Banco do BrasilShort led the decliners at minus 2.77%, consistent with our short signal, while Itaú UnibancoLong held its loss to 1.08%: here we are long a stock that fell, and we flag it. In utilities CPFL EnergiaLong shed 2.44% inside a sector down more than 3%, another divergence from our long stance, and PetrobrasLong fell 1.72% with oil.

Steel bucked the trend, supported by mining: GerdauLong gained 0.83% and CSN 1.13% — the latter is not among the names we cover with a dedicated page — while ValeShort limited its decline to 0.58%. On the corporate side, Embraer reported over the weekend a record quarterly backlog of 34.5 billion dollars: the aircraft maker also sits outside our coverage and we cite it for completeness.