There are 12, all born in the week of 20 July, and what matters more than any single name is where they are not: none of these twelve sits in the sector that led yesterday's fall. It's a defensive list — energy, defense, data and telecoms.

The trigger came again from Asia: SK Hynix posted record operating profit but below the market's sky-high expectations, sinking alongside Samsung — roughly down 13% and 8% — and dragging the whole DRAM memory complex. From there the blow crossed the Pacific: MicronShort stock fell 9.94%, SanDiskShort about 7%, IntelShort 6%, AMDLong 5%, while NvidiaShort held its loss to 3.5%, still the thermometer of the entire AI theme. Micron stock was the worst of the pack.

Behind the move, two fears that compound: the sustainability of AI capex — with reports that Nvidia would finance OpenAI's next data center — and Chinese progress in chipmaking equipment, raising the spectre of a memory glut. QualcommShort stock also fell, down 4.4% after results, along with BroadcomShort.

The day's pivot was the FOMC. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50-3.75%, a fifth straight pause, but three members voted for a 25 bp hike — the most explicit sign of impatience in months. The bond market feared a Fed «behind the curve»: the US 30-year at its highest since 2007, the 10-year above 4.67%.

After the bell, the verdict on the two heavyweights: MicrosoftShort beat across the board — revenue at 90 billion, up 18%, with cloud accelerating 43% — and rose about 3%. Yet Microsoft stock stays a short for us: the reaction will tell whether the technical picture needs a rethink. In contrast MetaLong disappointed, with EPS below estimates and a capex plan that spooked the market: down roughly 10%. Tonight the baton passes to AppleLong and AmazonShort, the week's final verdict.

The only green sector was energy, lifted by crude rising on renewed Middle East tensions. Brent traded around 89 dollars, with US crude up almost 7% on the day and more than a fifth on the month. Within the group ConocoPhillipsLong led the big oil names, followed by Exxon MobilLong and ChevronLong. The flip side is costlier fuel — exactly the inflation variable the Federal Reserve just flagged.

In Germany the star was Deutsche BankLong, with a solid second quarter and fixed-income trading accelerating, beating most US rivals and supporting the DAX. In France, a heavy day of luxury half-years: HermèsShort reported 8.16 billion in first-half revenue, up 6% at constant currency, but the stock turned lower as the confirmed outlook wasn't enough against slowing growth. Hermès stock fell about 11%.

The others fared better: L'OréalLong posted first-half like-for-like growth of 6.5%, DanoneLong accelerated in the second quarter to plus 4.2%, and AirbusLong confirmed its 2026 targets after strongly rising deliveries. As these results came after the close, the full reaction is due in today's session.

The Milan market closed slightly lower, the FTSE MIB down half a point, but with two names against the tide on earnings. EniLong stock was the best of the index, up over 7% after its half-year results, doubly helped by tense oil: Eni stock was among the most searched of the day. NexiLong also did well, up 3.4% on half-year results above consensus.

More cautious was the reaction to Intesa SanpaoloLong, which reported first-half net profit of 5.554 billion, up 6.5%, with the stock swinging after the numbers: Intesa Sanpaolo stock stays a buy for us, active since April. Elsewhere on the index, SnamShort, PrysmianShort and FinecoBankLong also approved half-year accounts. Among the day's hot searches was Stellantis stock too: on StellantisShort our model is short, though, with the weekly a sell and only the daily just turned.

Against the Wall Street tide, the Ibovespa gained 0.7%. ValeShort stock closed flat in the tug-of-war between China-stimulus bets and de-risking; PetrobrasLong added 0.5% as the index heavyweight, Itaú UnibancoLong 0.4% on expectations of gradual Selic easing, and AmbevLong 1.5%, a sign of resilient domestic consumption. BradescoLong meanwhile opened the banks' earnings run.

It's worth looking at the day through the ETFs too, since they're the vehicle most investors use to sit in these themes. The basket that moved everything is the semiconductor one: the semiconductor ETF (SOXX) shed over 5%, and it's the kind of session that makes today's fastest-rising ETF query «etf trading strategies», up 160%: when volatility climbs, people search for how to move. We express that theme through the single chip names, where we're short, rather than through the basket.

At the sector level, yesterday's money moved sharply. US TechnologyShort, the US technology sector ETF, fell 2.64% — and with it Vanguard TechnologyShort and Fidelity TechnologyShort, the Vanguard and Fidelity equivalents: we're short all three, and all three closed beyond the first declared stop. The Vanguard tech ETF is also among the most searched, with «vanguard etf» rising in today's queries. US IndustrialsLong, the industrials ETF, was the worst at minus 3.19%, and here we're long: it's the basket the market went against us on yesterday. Against the tide, US EnergyLong, the energy ETF, was the only one in the green at plus 1.88%, where our weekly buy signal found the barrel on its side. Also among the rising searches are «spy etf» and «covered call etf», both up 20%: our read on the two broad baskets is in the closing card.

It's worth looking at the four indices together, because yesterday too they fell less than the US: DAXLong down 0.13%, CAC 40Long down 0.56%, FTSE MIBLong down 0.62%, while FTSE 100Long gained 0.36%, the only one in the green. On the technical side they share the same underlying condition: all four have held a weekly buy signal since the first half of April, about sixteen weeks.

The number that tells the year is the spread among the four since the April signal: the Italian basket is up 11.4%, against 4.5% for the French, 2.8% for the German and 1.9% for the British. Milan has done two and a half times Paris, a direct reflection of the weight of its banks, which explains both the year's run and the sensitivity to every rate headline, starting with yesterday's. Whoever looks at Italian stocks today finds the most bank-heavy of the four indices.

We close with the desk's technical read, which today is all in a comparison. SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, trades 4.07% below its record; QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 one, 11.6%. Seven and a half points between two baskets the public often treats as synonyms, and it was four just a week ago: the gap is widening fast.

The reason is composition: technology weighs 32.9% in the first and 50.5% in the second, while financials are 12.6% in the first and practically absent — 0.24% — in the second. Without the bank cushion, and with double the chip exposure, the Nasdaq falls twice as hard when the day's theme is semiconductors. Technically the two are in opposite states: the first still holds a weekly buy signal but yesterday's close slipped just below its reversal point, the second already flipped to a sell in the week of 20 July and closed below its lower Bollinger band.