Technical analysis: the FTSE MIB turns to sell after 21 weeks, energy leads, US healthcare collapses

The American reopening had a single theme, and it was the cost of money. The US 10-year yield rose towards 4.8%, its highest since October 2023, inside a global bond sell-off. The jobs report did the rest, with 162,000 new positions against expectations near 56,000 and upward revisions to prior months: futures now put roughly a 60% probability on a rate hike at the 16 September meeting. In the background, the European Central Bank is expected on Thursday to take its main rate to 2.50%.

Indices paid unevenly. The S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long shed 0.55% and the small-cap ETF Russell 2000 ETFShort 0.45%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong stopped at 0.08%. Europe was flat: Frankfurt unchanged, Paris up 0.16%, Milan down 0.11%, London down 0.04%.

Tuesday's sector grid says one thing, and it says it on both sides of the Atlantic. In the United States energy XLELong led with 1.11%, and it carries 12.64% over the month, the highest figure on the whole grid; utilities XLUShort followed at 0.86%. At the bottom, healthcare XLVLong lost 2.52% and financials XLFLong 1.38%.

Europe drew the same picture, more sharply at the top: basic resources EXV6Long gained 1.83% and oil and gas EXH1Long 0.76%, while European healthcare EXV4Short shed 2.33%. That last one is the only sector on the entire grid, either side of the Atlantic, losing across all three horizons: day, week and month.

Milan closed almost flat at 0.11% lower, after being down close to 1% earlier in the session, and the recovery has a single name. Telecom ItaliaLong gained 2.89% on the revised takeover and exchange offer from Poste ItalianeLong: the board raised the cash component by 30 cents, taking the consideration to 1.97 euros plus 0.218 new Poste shares per TIM share, an implied valuation of roughly 7.83 euros at early-September prices. Poste called the move final, dropped the 66.67% minimum acceptance condition and reopened the offer window from 21 to 25 September. Poste shares closed 0.53% higher.

The rest of the index split cleanly. On the way up: INWITShort at 3.12% and PrysmianShort at 2.39%, defensives and network infrastructure, with EniLong up 1.25% on crude and TenarisShort up 1.35%. On the way down: STMicroelectronicsShort worst on the index at 3.41% lower, Stellantis MilanoShort down 2.80%, FerrariLong down 2.20% and NexiLong down 1.40%.

The technical fact of the week does not show up in the index's daily change. On the FTSE MIB ETFShort the buy signal had run since 13 April, twenty-one weeks, carrying 12.20% with all three profit-taking windows already reached — the first in week six, the second in week eleven, the third in week seventeen. At Friday 4 September's close the price settled below its own exit level and the weekly signal turned: since Monday the Italian basket has been working from the other side.

The Inversion Point has repositioned to 54.75, or 2.40% above the current price, which is where a protective level sits on a newly opened short. The two sessions since the flip have left the price essentially unchanged, down 0.11% on Tuesday: the signal is new and has not yet produced a move.

The three main venues finished essentially flat: Frankfurt unchanged, Paris up 0.16%, London down 0.04%. Beneath the surface, though, the move followed the American template. The worst sector was healthcare EXV4Short at 2.33% lower, also negative on the week and the month; the best were basic resources EXV6Long at 1.83% and oil and gas EXH1Long at 0.76%.

Among individual names, Infineon TechnologiesShort remains the most closely watched German stock after the C2i Semiconductors acquisition announced last week, while SAPLong and Dassault SystemesLong stay on the weak side of European software. On AirbusShort we flag a divergence from the day's press coverage: some sources report the stock lower, our prices have it up 1.03%, and in this card our own feed prevails. Deutsche Bank reiterated its buy rating with a 232-euro target after 57 August deliveries.

The American session split technology by product. On the way up: SandiskLong 11.90%, CoreWeaveLong 11.70%, IntelShort 9.10%, Micron TechnologyShort 6.10% and Advanced Micro DevicesShort 4.69%. On the way down: ShopifyLong 7.60% and BaiduShort 6.96%. Among the heavyweights, AppleShort lost 2.51%, MicrosoftLong 2.04% and NVIDIALong 2.01% ahead of a 0.25-dollar dividend going ex on the 10th, the same day as a conference presentation.

Outside technology the blow came from healthcare: AmgenLong fell 10.08%, Beam TherapeuticsShort 9.54% and Intuitive SurgicalLong 4.51%. In consumer discretionary ExpediaLong lost 7.90% and BookingLong 6.70% — the two large travel platforms on the same day and by a similar margin. On the China front, the US Department of Defense designated AlibabaShort and Baidu as entities tied to the Chinese military, barring them from federal contracts.

DAX ETFLong closed unchanged, CAC 40 ETFShort up 0.16%, FTSE MIB ETFShort down 0.11% and FTSE 100 ETFLong down 0.04%. Distances from their records tell four different stories: the German basket is closest to its high at 2.21% below, followed by Milan at 3.49%, Paris at 4.95% and London at 7.68%.

On our signals the position is this: the German basket has been long since 13 April with the price 1.07% above its exit level; London has been long since 7 April with 1.63% of headroom; Paris has been short since 24 August, with the price 2.12% below its inversion level.

GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — shed 1.73%, the widest move in the group. SOXX — the iShares Semiconductor ETF — gained 1.64% on the back of memory names, while XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR and the main US technology ETF, stopped at 0.32%.

Among the rotating sectors, XLE — the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF — gained 1.11% and carries 12.64% over the month; XLU, the US utilities ETF, added 0.86%. In Europe EXV6, the basic resources ETF, rose 1.83% while EXV1, the European banks ETF, was flat at 0.08% lower.

The weekly cohort was born at Friday 4 September's close: 21 new buy signals, 14 tradable. From Tuesday to Friday this card publishes only what changes — who crosses above or below their entry level, who flips side on the daily chart, who reports earnings, who leaves the cohort.

Yesterday the group finally moved in full, because Wall Street and São Paulo reopened: eleven of the twenty-one names are Brazilian and Tuesday was their first complete session of the week. The change that matters, though, involves an American name: Recursion PharmaceuticalsLong fell 5.23% inside the day's worst sector while remaining among the tradable signals with Signal Strength at 76%. Among the Brazilians, CemigLong gained 3.91% and leads the cohort.

Four companies in our universe report over the next seven days, and the first two arrive together tomorrow after the American close.

Thursday 10 September

Adobe Long

Oracle Long

Avio Short

Wednesday 16 September

MFE-MediaForEurope Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.55%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, stopped at 0.08%. On a risk-off day the more aggressive of the two held up better, and the reason is measurable: healthcare and financials, the session's two worst sectors, weigh 22.06% in the S&P 500 and 5.35% in the Nasdaq 100. That weighting difference alone accounts for 0.28 points of the 0.47 actually observed.

The geometry of the two trades remains very different. The S&P 500 ETF is in the twenty-second week of a buy signal carrying 12.73%, with all three profit-taking windows banked, and sits 1.72% below its record; the Nasdaq 100 ETF is in its fifth week, still 1.74% below its own entry level, with all three windows ahead and the time gates open, and sits 4.05% below its high.