Technical analysis: Wall Street reopens after Labor Day with oil at six-week highs, and Infineon stock jumps 6.91%

US equity and bond markets were closed on Monday for Labor Day, and so was São Paulo for Independence Day. In our universe that means something very concrete: 120 names out of 424 have a fresh price and 304 do not. Of the seven broad indices we track, four had a session — the four European ones — and three did not.

European markets closed in scattered order and within narrow ranges: Paris and Milan both up 0.28%, Frankfurt down 0.13%, London down 0.09%. None beyond half a point. Without the usual American reference in the afternoon the indices compressed while individual themes did the work: the two sectors that really moved, European technology and oil, each gained more than a full point.

The thread running through the session came from the sea. Over the weekend the United States struck three Iranian tankers in response to the targeting of two US Navy vessels, and Tehran claimed attacks on three US-linked ships transiting the Strait. Roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil and a fifth of its liquefied natural gas pass through that stretch of water: Brent returned close to 98 dollars and WTI moved above 92, the highest in about six weeks.

On the Italian market the effect was immediate. Eni stock EniLong closed up 0.59% on the same day the company announced a biofuels agreement with Petronas; TenarisShort added 1.12% and TotalEnergiesLong 1.58% in Paris. SaipemShort was the exception, shedding 0.46% despite belonging to the same sector.

In Milan the story of the day was the deal between Poste ItalianeLong and Telecom ItaliaLong. Telecom Italia announced that its chief executive and the managers with strategic responsibilities have tendered their own shares into the voluntary exchange and purchase offer launched by Poste Italiane, which pays 1.97 euros in cash plus 0.218 Poste shares for each TIM share, with a cash component capped at 3.36 billion. The TIM board judged the consideration fair, acceptances close on 11 September and completion is expected by year end. Both fell on the day: Telecom Italia stock lost 3.56%, Poste 2.42%.

The widest move on the market — and across our whole universe — belonged to LottomaticaShort, up 7.70%. Also firm were STMicroelectronicsShort at plus 4.01% in the wake of the European chip rebound, PrysmianShort at plus 2.66%, FincantieriLong at plus 0.94% and UniCreditLong at plus 0.57%. Among the asset gatherers, Banca MediolanumLong shed 1.65% and FinecoBankLong 0.30% despite reporting August net inflows of 678 and 957 million euros respectively. UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONILong lost 1.13% and AmplifonLong 1.35%, while Intesa SanpaoloLong was flat at minus 0.03% after the bank restated that it will not interfere in Generali.

In a weak session for the German index the standout was Infineon TechnologiesShort, the best DAX name with a 6.91% jump after Saturday's announcement of the C2i Semiconductors acquisition, which adds to its momentum in power chips. Infineon stocks led a broad rebound in European semiconductor stocks on the day. RWELong also did well at plus 1.99%. On the other side SAPLong weighed on the index with a 1.55% fall, RheinmetallLong lost 1.28% and SiemensLong 0.83%. Close to flat were Volkswagen AG PrefLong at minus 0.34% after Friday's jump on its restructuring plan, Bayerische Motoren WerkeLong at plus 0.06% and Deutsche BankLong at minus 0.13%.

In Paris Dassault SystemesLong lost 2.19%, extending a difficult week for European software, and EssilorLuxotticaShort 0.83%. In London the FTSE 100 gave up a handful of points, held back by consumer names, healthcare and gold miners, while energy and some financials limited the damage.

The American market reopens today carrying Friday 4 September's prices, and that is where it starts from. That session belonged to hardware: SandiskLong up 11.90%, NebiusLong up 7.48%, Bloom EnergyShort up 7.35%, Marvell TechnologyLong up 7.05%, Micron TechnologyShort up 6.10%, CoreWeaveLong up 5.68%, Constellation EnergyLong up 4.88%, Advanced Micro DevicesShort up 4.69%, Super Micro ComputerLong up 4.54% and IntelShort up 4.51%.

Within the same sector software fell: AutodeskShort down 8.26%, AdobeLong down 6.73%, NetflixLong down 5.35%. Outside it, TeslaLong lost 5.92% between an underwhelming event and a fresh probe, Palantir TechnologiesLong 4.49% and AppleShort 2.51%. OracleLong gained 3.08% on the eve of its own results and NVIDIALong just 0.84%.

The week closing on Friday 11 is bringing six reversals across the names we cover. Five move from buy to sell: FTSE MIB ETF, Poste Italiane, FinecoBank, Dassault Systemes and Rheinmetall. One goes the other way, from sell to buy, and it is Tenaris, consistent with the move in crude.

The first is the one that matters. On the FTSE MIB the buy signal had run since 7 April, twenty-two completed weeks, and carried plus 12.52% with all three profit-taking windows already banked. The exit level had sat unchanged at 53.4437 for two consecutive weeks — a trailing stop that stops climbing is a warning in itself — and on Monday the price closed 0.087% above it, less than a tenth of a point.

DAX ETFLong closed down 0.13%, CAC 40 ETFShort up 0.28%, FTSE MIB ETFLong up 0.28% and FTSE 100 ETFLong down 0.09%. The distances from their records tell four different stories: the German basket is closest to its own high at minus 2.21%, followed by Milan at minus 3.38%, Paris at minus 5.10% and London at minus 7.65%.

On our signals the picture reads as follows: the German basket has been on buy since 13 April and carries plus 4.97%, with the price 1.31% above its exit level; London has been on buy since 7 April and carries plus 2.08%, with 1.91% of headroom; Paris has been on sell since 24 August, with the price 2.82% below its own inversion level.

EXV3 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology, that is the European technology ETF — was the best sector of the session at plus 1.25%, and EXH1 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas, the European oil and gas ETF — came second at plus 1.19%. Much further back sat EXV1, the European banks ETF, at plus 0.12%, and EXHG, the European autos ETF, at plus 0.07%.

On the American side the baskets still carry Friday's prices. SOXX — the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the reference semiconductor ETF — had closed up 3.52%, the widest move of the group; XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, up 0.70%. GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — had slipped 0.84% as yields climbed, and XLE, the US energy ETF, 0.87%.

The cohort was born on Friday 4 September's close: 21 new buy signals, 14 of them tradable. From Tuesday to Friday this card publishes only what changes — who crosses above or below their entry level, who switches side on the daily, who reports earnings, who drops out of the cohort.

Today nothing changes, and the reason is the calendar: of the fourteen tradable names only four had an open market on Monday — the three German ones, Volkswagen AG PrefLong, Bayerische Motoren WerkeLong and RWELong, plus Italy's IvecoLong. The other ten, American and Brazilian, had no session at all. None of the four crossed its entry level or switched side on the daily.

Three companies in our universe report over the next seven days, and all three arrive on the same day from very different positions.

Thursday 10 September

Adobe Long

Oracle Long

Avio Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, and QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, reopen this afternoon carrying Friday's prices: the first had lost 0.39%, the second gained 0.18%. The reason for the divergence lies in composition: technology is 50.54% of the Nasdaq basket against 32.91% of the broad one and rose 0.70%; financials are 0.24% against 12.59% and fell 0.79%.

Both sit inside their own congestion zone, resting on the floor. The geometry, though, is very different. The S&P 500 ETF is in the twenty-third week of a buy signal worth 13.35%, with all three profit-taking windows banked, and stands just 1.19% below its record; the Nasdaq 100 ETF is in its fifth week, still 1.66% below its entry level, and sits 4.13% below its own.