Technical analysis: Broadcom's beat falls short, Dell stock jumps 15.81% while Credo drops 20%

Wall Street snapped three losing sessions: the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, added 0.44%, the QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 0.23% and the small-cap basket IWM 1.18%. The trigger was not a strong macro print: the US ten-year eased back towards 4.79% after touching 4.818% intraday, its highest since late 2023, and the dollar slipped from three-week highs. Markets still price a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on 16 September at 66% to 68% probability, with the European Central Bank expected to move on the 10th.

The rebound was narrow, though. Across our universe of more than four hundred instruments, daily buy signals triggered during the session numbered thirteen: a recovery that lights up so few short-term signals is a recovery few hands took part in. On the S&P 500 ETF volume fell to 29.6 million shares from 41.1, the first decline after four consecutive increases, with the bought share back up to 72.98% from 44.32% on Monday.

After the US close Broadcom reported quarterly revenue of 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year and above expectations. The stock fell as much as 6% in after-hours trading before trimming to roughly 4%, because guidance for the current quarter — 34.8 billion — came in below the 35.05 billion consensus. In the regular session the stock had already given up 0.66%.

It is the second time this year the same name has been treated this way, and it is the pattern that now governs how AI-exposed Dell stocks and their peers trade around results: a strong quarter punished because the outlook does not raise the bar. The sector arrived there already bruised. Credo Technology stock lost 20.04% during the session, Marvell stock 1.86%, while Micron stock gained 2.43% and Nvidia stock 3.21%. The real read-through across semiconductor stocks will show in today's session.

Milan closed 0.23% lower, and inside that almost flat number the spread between names was wide. At the top STMicroelectronics stock gained 3.33%, the largest advance of the Italian session, followed by Amplifon stock at 2.55%, Prysmian stock at 1.71%, Campari at 1.47% and Moncler at 0.89%. Eni stock added 0.61%, supported by crude and by an agreement signed with Venezuela to operate a major field on an exclusive basis.

The bottom of the board was dominated by utilities and by one outlier. Lottomatica stock lost 7.63%, the sharpest fall on the index and among the day's outsized moves; Italgas 3.46%, Stellantis stock 2.79% after halting production in Turin over an engine component shortage, A2A 2.61%, Enel stock 2.59%, FinecoBank 1.99%, Saipem 1.95%, Avio 1.83% and Terna 1.49%. Banks had a mild day: UniCredit stock up 0.52%, Banco BPM up 0.31%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock down 0.22%, MPS down 0.18%.

The US session had a clear direction. Materials led with XLB up 1.69%, followed by communications with XLC up 1.39% and financials with XLF up 0.80%. Health care added 0.75% and is the strongest sector of the month at 6.6%. Real estate trailed at minus 0.70%. And in between, motionless, technology: XLK closed at minus 0.02% on a day the broad basket gained 0.44%.

Inside the rising sectors the names stand out. Snap stock gained 4.49%, leading communications; Wells Fargo stock 2.56%, leading financials; Newmont stock 2.06% in the wake of materials. Health care saw three daily buy signals trigger together: Amgen up 1.08%, Johnson & Johnson up 1.48% and the sector basket XLV up 0.75%. Bank of America added 0.98% on the same signal.

Two names from the same world, the same day, thirty-six percentage points apart. Dell stock rose 15.81% after earnings, the widest move across our entire universe and equal to 6.7 times its typical swing. Credo Technology stock fell 20.04%, twice its own typical swing.

The two positions could not be more different. On Dell Technologies our model has been long since week twenty-seven and the trade is worth 232.39%: it is the most profitable position we hold, and last night's numbers land on a structure that never stopped saying buy. On Credo Technology we are long since week three and the position is down 36.43%, with the price now below its exit level and a sell flip printed on the candle still forming.

EXH9 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities, the European utilities ETF — fell 1.73%, the worst of all twenty sectors we track. This is not a one-day story: the week is down 2.98%, the month 4.69%, and the sector's weekly picture is unfavourable.

The Italian bill was steep. Italgas down 3.46%, A2A down 2.61%, Enel stock down 2.59%, Snam 1.46%, Terna 1.49%, Hera 1.71%. The channel is the same one moving everything else: these are companies with long, stable cash flows, therefore the most sensitive to the cost of money, and with two central banks expected to tighten in September the cost of money is rising.

Six baskets tell the day better than any commentary. GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — gained 1.52%, with bullion back near its highs: after a week in which rising yields had weighed on it, it went back to doing its job. XLB — the Materials Select Sector SPDR, the US materials ETF — closed up 1.69%, first of eleven sectors, and XLC — the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, the communications ETF — up 1.39%.

On the other side EXH9 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities, the European utilities ETF — fell 1.73% and EXHG — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts, the European auto ETF — 1.35%. And then there is the basket that failed to move when it should have: XLK — the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF — closed at minus 0.02% while the rest of the market rose.

All four European venues closed lower, and by narrow margins: the DAX down 0.49%, the CAC 40 down 0.30%, the FTSE 100 down 0.28%, the FTSE MIB down 0.23%. The day's ranking says almost nothing; the signal picture says a great deal.

The DAX has been on a buy signal for twenty weeks, worth 4.28%, with the price 0.64% above its weekly reversal level. The FTSE 100 has been on a buy for twenty-one weeks at 1.52% and sits 1.25% above. The CAC 40 is the only one already on a sell, since last week, with the signal 1.52% ahead. And the FTSE MIB remains the odd one out: its buy signal has run for twenty-one weeks and is worth 11.55%, the best of the four, yet the price now sits below its exit level by 3.48% and a sell flip has printed on the candle still forming.

The cohort is the one born at Friday 28 August's close — 9 signals, six of them tradable — and it stays the same until tomorrow. Here we publish only what has changed in the third session: which names saw their daily signal turn, and which moved meaningfully.

The next seven days bring six names from our universe, spread across three dates.

Thursday 3 September

Zscaler Long

Tuesday 8 September

GameStop Short

FuelCell Energy Short

Thursday 10 September

Oracle Long

Adobe Long

Avio Long

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.44%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 0.23%, exactly half. The reason lies in composition, and it can be measured. In the Nasdaq basket technology carries 50.54% of the weight and stood still yesterday at minus 0.02%; financials, which contributed most to the broad basket, carry 0.24% there, health care 5.11% and materials 1.30%. In the S&P 500 basket those same three are worth 12.59%, 9.47% and 2.09%.

The technical setup is just as different. SPY has been on a buy signal for twenty-two weeks, worth 12.61%, has banked all three profit-taking windows, and needs a 1.86% rally to reach its record. QQQ has been on a buy for four weeks, the trade is down 2.99%, no window has been reached, and its record is 5.56% away.