Technical analysis: Snowflake stock jumps 16.55% on strong guidance while Broadcom slips despite beating estimates
The 3 September session delivered a second straight advance, and this time Europe came along. Comments from a Federal Reserve governor on easing price pressures cooled expectations of tightening: Wall Street gained more than one percent, the Milan market 0.83%, London 0.70%, Frankfurt 0.66% and Paris 0.16%. Across our universe of more than four hundred instruments, 48 daily buy signals fired against thirteen the day before — the difference between a narrow rotation and a rising tide.
In the cards below you will find the technical analysis of the names that moved the day — Snowflake stock up 16.55% after results, Strategy and Robinhood stocks both above sixteen percent, Broadcom lower despite a quarter above estimates, Oracle and Palantir stocks joining the move, and in Milan MPS and Mediobanca on the European Central Bank's clearance of their merger — and for each one our model's position, long or short, with the date the signal fired.
- From thirteen buy signals to forty-eight
- Two beats, two opposite reactions
- Financials ahead of everything
- Milan market: MPS-Mediobanca and Iveco
- Europe: three signals turning tonight
- European indices: Milan on the edge
- The ETFs that moved the session
- This week's signals: what changed
- This week's earnings
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
Technical analysis of the session: from thirteen daily buy signals to forty-eight
Wall Street strung together a second positive session: SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 1.05%, QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 1.19%, and IWM, the small-cap basket, 0.40%. Europe followed this time: Milan up 0.83%, London 0.70%, Frankfurt 0.66%, Paris 0.16%. On Wednesday the two continents had closed on opposite sides.
The figure that captures the day is not the index level, it is the signal count. Across our universe, daily buy signals went from thirteen to forty-eight in twenty-four hours, and among the forty-eight there are broad index funds sitting alongside single names. On the S&P 500 ETF volume climbed back to 43.5 million shares from 29.6, up 47%, with the bought share at 86.93%: Wednesday's move was short covering, Thursday had fresh money behind it.
Technical analysis of semiconductor stocks and software: two beats, two opposite reactions
Two companies beat estimates on the same evening and the market treated them in opposite ways. Snowflake stock gained 16.55% on revenue and earnings above expectations and robust guidance for the current quarter — and among software and Snowflake stocks it was the widest move of the session. Broadcom fell 2.74% despite posting revenue of 29.6 billion dollars and adjusted earnings per share above consensus, with semiconductor revenue more than tripling: what weighed was the fourth fiscal quarter outlook, 34.8 billion against the 35.03 expected.
The evening before had played out the same way on two other names: Lululemon shed roughly eighteen percent and Guidewire nineteen, both after cutting forward guidance. The rule the market is applying in this phase is a single one, and it covers the whole sector: the quarter just closed counts for little, what counts is the sentence about the quarter ahead. Anyone following ai trading as a single theme faces the same lesson: demand for artificial intelligence is not in question, what is in question is the price the market will pay for it.
Technical analysis of financial stocks: platforms and crypto ahead of everything else
US financials led the day with XLF up 1.56%, and inside that number the moves are far wider. Strategy stock gained 17.56%, Robinhood 16.57%, Circle 16.46%, Coinbase 10.14%. What ties them together is bitcoin's advance and the accumulation by treasury companies holding it. Further back but in the same direction, S&P Global up 4.37%, Interactive Brokers 4.30%, SoFi stocks 3.76% and Goldman Sachs 3.34%.
Four of those moves rank among the widest across our whole universe, and all eight of the day's outsized moves were to the upside, averaging 11.9%. When the exceptional moves all sit on one side, what you are looking at is risk appetite. For anyone building a trading strategy around this corner of the market, Strategy stocks, Robinhood stocks and the other crypto-linked names now move as a single block rather than as separate companies.
Technical analysis of Italian stocks: clearance for the MPS-Mediobanca merger and the Iveco offer
The Milan market closed 0.83% higher, with two genuine corporate developments underneath. First, the European Central Bank authorised the merger by incorporation of Mediobanca into MPS and cleared two new board appointments; the deal goes to a shareholder vote on 29 October. MPS stocks and the other Italian banks moved together on the news: MPS stock closed up 1.60% and Mediobanca up 2.07%. Second, Italy's market regulator approved the offer document for Tata Motors' tender offer on Iveco at 14.10 euros per share, with the acceptance window running from 7 September to 26 October; Iveco closed all but unchanged at minus 0.07%, as befits a stock whose price is now anchored to the offer.
At the top of the board Lottomatica stock rose 5.77%, followed by Stellantis at 4.21%, Telecom Italia at 2.79%, Azimut at 2.77% after a broker upgrade and Poste Italiane at 2.47%. The banking block worked as one: Unipol up 1.68%, BPER Banca 1.61%, Banco BPM 1.43%, FinecoBank 1.39%, Generali 1.38%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 1.28%, UniCredit 1.04%. At the bottom Brunello Cucinelli minus 1.72%, Campari minus 1.69% and Leonardo minus 1.46%.
Technical analysis of European stocks: three weekly signals turning in the same week
Away from Milan the European session has a thread that Italy does not show: three of our weekly signals are changing side, and all three settle at tonight's close. BMW stock is turning from sell to buy after fifteen weeks, while Barclays and Safran are turning the other way, from buy to sell. All three rose in the session: BMW up 1.78%, Barclays up 2.06%, Safran 0.85%.
The rest of the continental market followed the rebound. Volkswagen stock up 3.61%, Prudential 3.49%, Deutsche Bank 1.94%, Deutsche Börse 1.79%, Vinci 1.39%, Deutsche Telekom stocks 1.05%. Lower were Rheinmetall at minus 1.85%, Siemens minus 1.17%, Engie minus 0.50% and Shell minus 0.33%.
Technical analysis of European indices: Milan returns the most and is closest to breaking
All four venues closed higher, but our signals divide them sharply. FTSE MIB up 0.83%, FTSE 100 up 0.70%, DAX up 0.66%, CAC 40 up 0.16%.
Three are on a buy and one on a sell. Milan has been on a buy for twenty-two weeks and the trade is worth 12.47%, comfortably the best of the four; London twenty-two weeks at 2.23%; Frankfurt twenty-one at 4.97%. Paris is the only sell, dating from 24 August, and that trade is worth 4.05%. From their own records, Milan is 3.53% away, Frankfurt 2.26%, Paris 5.57%, London 8.12%.
The ETFs that moved the session: the gold ETF, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq funds, European banks
GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — gained 1.85%, the widest move among the baskets we follow, driven by a weaker dollar and retreating yields. XLF — the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF — closed up 1.56% and led the session. XLK — the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF — rose 1.29% after standing still the day before.
In Europe EXHG — the iShares European automotive ETF — gained 1.70% and led the continent, while EXV1 — the European banks ETF — added 1.44%. At the bottom XLE, the US energy ETF, at minus 0.74%: it is the month's best sector at plus 10.42% and yesterday it eased off while crude was still rising.
This week's buy signals: the last session before the close
The cohort is the one born at Friday 28 August's close — 9 signals, six of them tradable — and it closes today. Here we publish only what changed in the fourth session, and today there is a single change.
This week's earnings: Adobe and Avio next Thursday
The next seven days on our universe are light and bring two names, both on the same day.
Thursday 10 September
Adobe Long
Avio Long
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: the comparison flips in twenty-four hours
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 1.05%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 1.19%. On Wednesday it had gone the other way, with the technology basket doing exactly half of the broad one. The cause is the same on both days and it can be measured: technology accounts for 50.54% of the Nasdaq basket, and on Wednesday it stood still while yesterday it gained 1.29%. A concentration like that works in both directions, and across two consecutive sessions it showed first one face and then the other.
The technical picture remains very different. SPY has been on a buy since week twenty-two with 13.79%, has banked all three profit-taking windows, and needs a 0.80% rise to reach its own record. QQQ has been on a buy since week four, the trade is still 1.83% below entry, no window has been reached and the record is 4.32% away.
The bigger picture: two sessions of truce, with the calendar ahead
What drove these two days is a shift in rate expectations rather than better macro data: comments from a Federal Reserve governor on easing price pressures cooled tightening fears and brought yields back down. The calendar looms, though: the European Central Bank decides on 10 September and the Federal Reserve on the 16th. A rebound built on an expectation holds as long as the expectation does, and the test arrives in six to twelve days.
The stress dashboard is mixed. The Italy-Germany spread remains up 6.4% over the month but gave back 1.4% last week, its first decline after four straight; bond volatility, by contrast, is up 3.7% over the month and 5.2% in the past week. Outside the financial block two real-economy gauges keep running together: crude is up 16.8% over four weeks and shipping rates 12.9%, with 9.5% added last week. Physical trade and oil rising while central banks debate inflation is not a combination that helps anyone hoping for lower rates.
The number we keep watching is market participation — how many stocks are genuinely holding the index up. It was flat for a session and has been falling for three weeks, down 4.7% over the month. A market gaining more than one percent while that measure does not move is a market held up by a few names, and that is the crack that has not closed.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading — stops, break-even stops, trailing, and the declaration of stops that have been taken out — or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system — The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).