Technical analysis: Micron stock jumps 4% as software gives back, and Reddit stock joins the S&P 500
The 17 August session was an eve, and it behaved like one: Wall Street shed half a point with traders unwilling to commit ahead of the big US retailers' results and Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes. Beneath that flat surface, though, the rotation carried on: memory and chip names held their ground, software paid the bill, and in Europe the chipmakers rallied as a block.
The cards below carry the technical analysis of the names that moved the session — Micron stock, Reddit stock, Microsoft stocks, Adobe and Alibaba on Wall Street, STM, Stellantis, Ferrari and Fincantieri on the Milan market — and for each one our model's position, long or short, with the date its signal fired. We open with the week's fresh buy signals and close with SPY against QQQ, the two US ETFs now sitting at opposite ends of the same cycle.
- The week's fresh buy signals
- Technical analysis of US technology: memory against software
- Reddit stock joins the S&P 500, Nvidia shows its hand
- Technical analysis of Alibaba and Baidu
- Technical analysis of AstraZeneca: two trials out of three
- US energy, the only sector in the green
- Milan market: STM stock flies, Stellantis stock drops
- European indices: same signal, returns from 1 to 17
- The ETFs that moved the session
- This week's earnings
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
The week's fresh buy signals: ten names from the most mobile block we track
The weekly analysis that closed on Friday opened thirty fresh buy signals, and ten of them are below — a different ten from yesterday's. Space, quantum computing, uranium, rare earths, compute infrastructure and air mobility: this is the most mobile group we follow, and it changed side all at once.
Technical analysis of US technology: semiconductor stocks hold while software gives back
The session split technology cleanly in two. Holding up were Micron Technology, up 4.13%, Texas Instruments at plus 1.19% and Cisco Systems at plus 1.09%, with NVIDIA flat at minus 0.07%. Paying the bill were software and the mega caps: Adobe minus 3.78%, Meta Platforms minus 3.54%, Microsoft minus 3.04%, Intuit minus 2.91%, Salesforce minus 2.67% and Oracle minus 2.57%.
The technology sector as a whole still closed up 0.16%, the second best of the day. That is the tell: the rotation is running inside the theme, with money moving out of software margins and into the productive capacity of memory and chips.
Reddit stock joins the S&P 500 and Nvidia reveals its SpaceX and Intel holdings
Reddit joins the main US index from today's session, news that had already supported the stock on Friday. Index inclusion produces forced buying from the funds that track it, so Reddit stocks move on a technical event before a fundamental one: the shares still gave up 7.63% on the eve of the entry.
On the chip side, Friday's filing is still in the background: NVIDIA disclosed holdings worth roughly 21 billion dollars in SpaceX and 30 billion in Intel, a snapshot of how tightly the big artificial intelligence names and the hardware makers are now bound together.
Technical analysis of Alibaba and Baidu into earnings week
Alibaba gained 0.73% after confirming the sale of its gaming arm for more than two billion dollars, another step in trimming the non-core perimeter, and reports on 20 August. Baidu, reporting today, added 0.43% on news that Duquesne Family Office has taken roughly 88,000 shares — that office's first exposure to US-listed Chinese technology in over two years. XPeng closes the window with results on 24 August.
Technical analysis of AstraZeneca: two trials hit their mark, one is halted
AstraZeneca released results from two late-stage lung cancer studies: the Tagrisso-Orpathys combination and Enhertu, developed with Daiichi Sankyo, both met their endpoints, while the group halted a separate late-stage study on volrustomig after it proved no better than existing therapies. The shares closed up 0.87%, a split reaction that mirrors precisely the balance between pipelines moving forward and pipelines stopping.
US energy was the only sector in the green: technical analysis of Exxon, Chevron and Petrobras
Of eleven US sectors only one closed green, and it was energy. Exxon Mobil added 0.85% on the very day it went ex-dividend, which makes the session stronger than the number suggests; Chevron gained 1.35% and Petroleo Brasileiro 2.07%. Crude stays tense on the Iranian front, with the truce expiring and the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked.
In Sao Paulo the index closed flat, held back by its own commodity heavyweights: Vale felt the seventh consecutive drop in Chinese iron ore, while Petrobras sat among the detractors ahead of quarterly results.
Milan market: STM stock flies on the European chip rebound while Stellantis stock drops 4%
On the Milan market the FTSE MIB finished virtually unchanged, yet the dispersion inside the index was wide. At the top STMicroelectronics, up 5.03% on the broad rebound in European chipmakers, followed by Ferrari at plus 1.36% and UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI at plus 1.35%. At the bottom Nexi, down 4.25%, Stellantis Milano at minus 4.11% and Fincantieri at minus 3.66%.
In between, most of the list barely moved: Intesa Sanpaolo minus 0.46%, UniCredit minus 0.67%, Leonardo minus 0.32%, Monte dei Paschi flat and Enel at minus 0.29%. Saipem deserves a line of its own: still on the day, but with the weekly Inversion Point flipping to buy on the candle now forming. If Friday's close confirms it, that is a new signal.
European indices: same signal, same age, returns from 1 to 17
The four European baskets we follow all carry a weekly buy signal opened in the spring: FTSE MIB, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 from 7 April, DAX from the 13th. Nineteen weeks in the trade, and on that they are aligned.
Where they part company is the result. The Italian basket returns 15.46% since the signal, the German one 6.34%, the French 6.04%; the British basket stops at 0.90%, a seventeenth of the Italian over the same span. All four lost ground on Monday, Paris worst at minus 0.64% and Milan almost still at minus 0.02%.
The ETFs that moved the session: the energy ETF, the semiconductor ETF and gold ETFs
Among US sectors energy took the day, with US energy ETF up 1.08% on the session and 8.50% over the month; the technology basket Technology US added 0.16%. At the back Communication Services US, down 1.89%. In Europe Basic Resources Europe held at plus 0.82% and European health care ETF at plus 0.81%, both of them squarely at odds with their own weekly picture, which had them retreating.
Two baskets deserve a line even without leading the session. The semiconductor ETF, semiconductor ETF, is where Monday's split between memory and software reads better than on the single names, and it carries a weekly signal reversal on the candle now forming. Gold ETFs, which we follow through gold ETF, hold a buy signal open since 3 August while the metal stays 5.8% ahead over four weeks on the back of a soft dollar: the technical analysis of gold says the structure is holding, and that is why the signal is still open.
This week's earnings: the US consumer and Chinese demand on the same day
The week lines up six names from our universe, and it lines them up in pairs: the US consumer and Chinese demand turn up on the same day, twice.
Tuesday 18 August — Home DepotLong
Tuesday 18 August — BaiduShort
Thursday 20 August — WalmartShort
Thursday 20 August — AlibabaLong
Tuesday 25 August — IntuitLong
Tuesday 25 August — Zoom CommunicationsLong
Just beyond the seven-day window comes the block that weighs most on the current theme: Salesforce and CrowdStrike on 26 August, and Nvidia on the same date.
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: one closes a cycle, the other opens one
S&P 500 (SPY), the S&P 500 ETF, shed 0.47% and moved away from its record high, now 0.87% above. The buy signal has been open since 6 April, this is week twenty, it returns 13.72% and all three profit-taking windows have been reached: coverage of the trade is finished and only the trailing stop is in charge.
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gave up just 0.16%, a third as much. Its buy signal was born on the close of 14 August: week two, still flat, with all three windows ahead and its record high 2.57% above the current price.
August's rotation is happening inside technology, and both ends of the sector show it
The backdrop stays relaxed: stress indicators are down across the four-week span, equity volatility is 18% lower and market participation has grown 14% over the same period. An advance with breadth expanding rests on many legs, and while that holds the context allows work to be done.
Within the single session, though, all four risk sensors we track rose together: equity volatility plus 6.6%, bond volatility plus 8.7%, tail risk plus 3.0%, the BTP-Bund spread plus 1.7%. When they all move the same way on the eve of an event, what is being bought is protection for the event, and the regime stays where it was. One reading genuinely jars, and it is market participation, down 3.4% in a single session after three weeks of gains: it is the first crack in the sturdiest measure on the board, and it is worth watching whether it repeats.
The real theme of the day remains the rotation, and its direction needs reading carefully. The US technology sector closed higher while six of its heaviest names lost more than two and a half points each: money is moving within the sector, out of software margins and into the productive capacity of chips and memory. Read the price action of the individual stocks and you see a sector breaking; look at the basket and you see a sector holding. They are the same fact, and they belong side by side.
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The full analyses behind the cards on this page.