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Technical analysis: Micron stock jumps 4% as software gives back, and Reddit stock joins the S&P 500

Micron stock jumps 4.13% while Adobe, Microsoft and Salesforce each give back more than 2.5%. Reddit stock joins the S&P 500 after a 7.63% drop, STM flies 5.03% on the European chip rebound and US energy is the only sector in the green. Thirty fresh buy signals from the weekly analysis.

Technical analysis: Micron stock jumps 4% as software gives back, and Reddit stock joins the S&P 500
Economic Observatory · The session

Technical analysis: Micron stock jumps 4% as software gives back, and Reddit stock joins the S&P 500

18 August 2026 AiTrading67 · Trade Desk Observatory Markets

The 17 August session was an eve, and it behaved like one: Wall Street shed half a point with traders unwilling to commit ahead of the big US retailers' results and Wednesday's Federal Reserve minutes. Beneath that flat surface, though, the rotation carried on: memory and chip names held their ground, software paid the bill, and in Europe the chipmakers rallied as a block.

The cards below carry the technical analysis of the names that moved the session — Micron stock, Reddit stock, Microsoft stocks, Adobe and Alibaba on Wall Street, STM, Stellantis, Ferrari and Fincantieri on the Milan market — and for each one our model's position, long or short, with the date its signal fired. We open with the week's fresh buy signals and close with SPY against QQQ, the two US ETFs now sitting at opposite ends of the same cycle.

The news that moved our instruments
📈
OUR MODEL
Updated to today

The week's fresh buy signals: ten names from the most mobile block we track

The weekly analysis that closed on Friday opened thirty fresh buy signals, and ten of them are below — a different ten from yesterday's. Space, quantum computing, uranium, rare earths, compute infrastructure and air mobility: this is the most mobile group we follow, and it changed side all at once.

Instrument
Daily signal
Weekly confirmed
My read
🇺🇸 LUNRLong
Intuitive Machines
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
The widest volatility of the whole cohort: a broad opportunity, where position size matters more than the entry point.
🇺🇸 CRDOLong
Credo Technology
earnings 01/09
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
All four pre-earnings signposts lit, with results due on 1 September.
🇺🇸 NBISLong
Nebius
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Compute infrastructure: it arrives with the same technical signature as the rest of the theme.
🇺🇸 SMCILong
Super Micro Computer
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
The signal is born on a session in which the stock gives back almost 4%: this is the cohort's fragile end.
🇺🇸 RGTILong
Rigetti Computing
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Quantum computing: short horizon and weekly were born in the same week, with no lag between them.
🇺🇸 USARLong
USA Rare Earth
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Rare earths, the second name from the same theme in the same cohort: they are one position, not two.
🇺🇸 UECLong
Uranium Energy
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Uranium: our monthly signal is still selling it, and the two horizons remain at odds.
🇺🇸 ACHRLong
Archer Aviation
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Air mobility: the structure is clean and there is no corporate event within a month.
🇺🇸 QURELong
uniQure
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
Gene therapy: the only name in the group that does not belong to the technology block.
🇺🇸 UBERLong
Uber Technologies
BUY
10 August
buy confirmed
week closed on 14/08
The quietest profile of the group, with ordinary volatility where nearly everyone else runs hot.
How I read itSeven of the thirty fresh signals come out with the Signal Strength at exactly the same reading, 84%. When that many different names return an identical measure, it does not mean they are all equally convincing: it means the move that produced them is one and the same move, and they should be sized as a single position. That is what risk management looks like applied to a cohort this concentrated. There is a counterweight, though, and it is the more interesting half: six of the thirty are technology baskets with weak conviction and volatility under 5%. When speculative single names and sector indices turn in the same week, the advance is broadening out from the names into the structure.
Our system · Intuitive Machines long (G / P) · Credo Technology long (G / P) · Nebius long (G / P) · Super Micro Computer long (G / P) · Rigetti Computing long (G / P) · USA Rare Earth long (G / P) · Uranium Energy long (G / P) · Archer Aviation long (G / P) · uniQure long (G / P) · Uber Technologies long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇺🇸
UNITED STATES
Semiconductors and software

Technical analysis of US technology: semiconductor stocks hold while software gives back

The session split technology cleanly in two. Holding up were Micron Technology, up 4.13%, Texas Instruments at plus 1.19% and Cisco Systems at plus 1.09%, with NVIDIA flat at minus 0.07%. Paying the bill were software and the mega caps: Adobe minus 3.78%, Meta Platforms minus 3.54%, Microsoft minus 3.04%, Intuit minus 2.91%, Salesforce minus 2.67% and Oracle minus 2.57%.

The technology sector as a whole still closed up 0.16%, the second best of the day. That is the tell: the rotation is running inside the theme, with money moving out of software margins and into the productive capacity of memory and chips.

How I read itThe day's real event for our model is Micron. We had been short since 13 July and the position was under water; with Monday's candle the weekly Inversion Point flipped to buy, so the signal is turning. Mind what that reading is, though: the weekly candle is still forming and only closes on Friday, so until then the reversal stays provisional. On software our position is long Adobe, Microsoft, Intuit and Salesforce, all in profit between 3% and 7%, and Monday chipped away part of that margin without putting a single signal in question. Micron stocks have been the tell of the whole week, and in swing trading that is the distinction between a bad session and a change of structure: no trading strategy survives treating the two as the same thing.
Our system · Micron Technology short (G / P) · Texas Instruments short (G / P) · Cisco Systems short (G / P) · NVIDIA long (G / P) · Adobe long (G / P) · Meta Platforms short (G / P) · Microsoft long (G / P) · Intuit long (G / P) · Salesforce long (G / P) · Oracle long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇺🇸
UNITED STATES
Index moves and stakes

Reddit stock joins the S&P 500 and Nvidia reveals its SpaceX and Intel holdings

Reddit joins the main US index from today's session, news that had already supported the stock on Friday. Index inclusion produces forced buying from the funds that track it, so Reddit stocks move on a technical event before a fundamental one: the shares still gave up 7.63% on the eve of the entry.

On the chip side, Friday's filing is still in the background: NVIDIA disclosed holdings worth roughly 21 billion dollars in SpaceX and 30 billion in Intel, a snapshot of how tightly the big artificial intelligence names and the hardware makers are now bound together.

How I read itWe are short Reddit from 27 July and the position is losing. I say so because the first published exit level was taken out on the candle of 10 August, and anyone following that level has been out since. This is exactly the mechanism I describe every time: the model never closes automatically and keeps tracking the stock until the signal inverts, while whoever uses the declared stops already has a closed trade. On Nvidia the buy signal fired on 3 August and the position sits barely above par: it is the neutral pivot of the sector in our book too.
Our system · Reddit short (G / P) · NVIDIA long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇨🇳
CHINA
The large Chinese ADRs

Technical analysis of Alibaba and Baidu into earnings week

Alibaba gained 0.73% after confirming the sale of its gaming arm for more than two billion dollars, another step in trimming the non-core perimeter, and reports on 20 August. Baidu, reporting today, added 0.43% on news that Duquesne Family Office has taken roughly 88,000 shares — that office's first exposure to US-listed Chinese technology in over two years. XPeng closes the window with results on 24 August.

How I read itThese are three readings of our model on one market, and they disagree with each other. On Alibaba the buy signal has been open five weeks and is ahead 8.47%; on Baidu we are short for ten weeks with the position ahead 10.06%; on XPeng we have been short since April. Three names from the same country carrying two different sides tells you the signal is not reading China here — it is reading three charts. All three report within a week, the textbook case where earnings leave the direction of the signal untouched and double the dispersion of outcomes: size comes down, nothing gets added.
Our system · Alibaba long (G / P) · Baidu short (G / P) · XPeng short (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇪🇺
EUROPE
Pharmaceuticals

Technical analysis of AstraZeneca: two trials hit their mark, one is halted

AstraZeneca released results from two late-stage lung cancer studies: the Tagrisso-Orpathys combination and Enhertu, developed with Daiichi Sankyo, both met their endpoints, while the group halted a separate late-stage study on volrustomig after it proved no better than existing therapies. The shares closed up 0.87%, a split reaction that mirrors precisely the balance between pipelines moving forward and pipelines stopping.

How I read itOur signal has been a sell since 13 July and the position is ahead 8.21%, so Monday cost us less than a point. On big pharma, though, the risk is idiosyncratic and binary, decided by trial read-outs far more than by price trend: this is the kind of position you keep small, because a single release can move the stock further than a month of chart work.
Our system · AstraZeneca short (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇺🇸
ENERGY AND BRAZIL
Commodities

US energy was the only sector in the green: technical analysis of Exxon, Chevron and Petrobras

Of eleven US sectors only one closed green, and it was energy. Exxon Mobil added 0.85% on the very day it went ex-dividend, which makes the session stronger than the number suggests; Chevron gained 1.35% and Petroleo Brasileiro 2.07%. Crude stays tense on the Iranian front, with the truce expiring and the Strait of Hormuz still deadlocked.

In Sao Paulo the index closed flat, held back by its own commodity heavyweights: Vale felt the seventh consecutive drop in Chinese iron ore, while Petrobras sat among the detractors ahead of quarterly results.

How I read itEnergy is the one place in Monday's session where our model and the sector move say the same thing: weekly signal buying, daily signal buying, sector rotating higher, and the return since the signal still under 9% on all three names. That is the configuration I look for, because it means there is road ahead. Brazil reads the other way round: we have been short Vale since May, and the run of iron ore declines is working in our favour.
Our system · Exxon Mobil long (G / P) · Chevron long (G / P) · Petroleo Brasileiro long (G / P) · Vale short (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇮🇹
MILAN MARKET
Piazza Affari

Milan market: STM stock flies on the European chip rebound while Stellantis stock drops 4%

On the Milan market the FTSE MIB finished virtually unchanged, yet the dispersion inside the index was wide. At the top STMicroelectronics, up 5.03% on the broad rebound in European chipmakers, followed by Ferrari at plus 1.36% and UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI at plus 1.35%. At the bottom Nexi, down 4.25%, Stellantis Milano at minus 4.11% and Fincantieri at minus 3.66%.

In between, most of the list barely moved: Intesa Sanpaolo minus 0.46%, UniCredit minus 0.67%, Leonardo minus 0.32%, Monte dei Paschi flat and Enel at minus 0.29%. Saipem deserves a line of its own: still on the day, but with the weekly Inversion Point flipping to buy on the candle now forming. If Friday's close confirms it, that is a new signal.

How I read itThe two ends of the list are also the two names our model is short, and the session treated them in opposite ways. On STM we have been selling since 13 July with the position ahead 8.83%, and Monday's rally ate into that margin: when a whole sector rebounds, a position standing against it needs looking at straight away. On Stellantis we have been selling since 8 June and the position is ahead 24.81%, so the day worked for us. On the long side Banco BPM is ahead 33.25%, Monte dei Paschi 31.38%, Intesa Sanpaolo 21.71% and UniCredit 17.89%, all trades opened in the spring: these are positions to walk alongside with a trailing stop, not to add to.
Our system · STMicroelectronics short (G / P) · Ferrari long (G / P) · UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI long (G / P) · Nexi long (G / P) · Stellantis Milano short (G / P) · Fincantieri long (G / P) · Intesa Sanpaolo long (G / P) · UniCredit long (G / P) · Leonardo long (G / P) · Monte dei Paschi long (G / P) · Enel short (G / P) · Saipem short (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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🇪🇺
EUROPEAN INDICES
The four baskets side by side

European indices: same signal, same age, returns from 1 to 17

The four European baskets we follow all carry a weekly buy signal opened in the spring: FTSE MIB, CAC 40 and FTSE 100 from 7 April, DAX from the 13th. Nineteen weeks in the trade, and on that they are aligned.

Where they part company is the result. The Italian basket returns 15.46% since the signal, the German one 6.34%, the French 6.04%; the British basket stops at 0.90%, a seventeenth of the Italian over the same span. All four lost ground on Monday, Paris worst at minus 0.64% and Milan almost still at minus 0.02%.

How I read itThe divergence is the piece no single chart shows: four indices with the same signal, the same age and returns spread from 1 to 17. Anyone who bought Europe as a block bought four different things. And there is a second layer: the French and British baskets have their daily signal already turned to sell while the weekly still holds, so the short horizon has stepped away on both. Those are the two where the structure is wearing through first, and they will be the first to give an exit signal if the picture changes.
Our system · FTSE MIB long (G / P) · DAX long (G / P) · CAC 40 long (G / P) · FTSE 100 long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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📊
INSTRUMENTS
Baskets and sectors

The ETFs that moved the session: the energy ETF, the semiconductor ETF and gold ETFs

Among US sectors energy took the day, with US energy ETF up 1.08% on the session and 8.50% over the month; the technology basket Technology US added 0.16%. At the back Communication Services US, down 1.89%. In Europe Basic Resources Europe held at plus 0.82% and European health care ETF at plus 0.81%, both of them squarely at odds with their own weekly picture, which had them retreating.

Two baskets deserve a line even without leading the session. The semiconductor ETF, semiconductor ETF, is where Monday's split between memory and software reads better than on the single names, and it carries a weekly signal reversal on the candle now forming. Gold ETFs, which we follow through gold ETF, hold a buy signal open since 3 August while the metal stays 5.8% ahead over four weeks on the back of a soft dollar: the technical analysis of gold says the structure is holding, and that is why the signal is still open.

How I read itThe contrast between US energy, where daily and weekly agree, and the two European baskets that rose against their own weekly picture is the clearest way to see what our signal measures: the state of the price structure, and no opinion whatsoever about the sector. A one-day rally inside a structure that is giving way stays a bounce until it repeats. The same holds for the excitement around ai trading, which does not move the signal by a cent: the model looks at the chart.
Our system · US energy ETF long (G / P) · Technology US long (G / P) · Communication Services US long (G / P) · Basic Resources Europe long (G / P) · European health care ETF short (G / P) · semiconductor ETF short (G / P) · gold ETF long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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📅
AGENDA
The next seven days

This week's earnings: the US consumer and Chinese demand on the same day

The week lines up six names from our universe, and it lines them up in pairs: the US consumer and Chinese demand turn up on the same day, twice.

Tuesday 18 AugustHome DepotLong

Tuesday 18 AugustBaiduShort

Thursday 20 AugustWalmartShort

Thursday 20 AugustAlibabaLong

Tuesday 25 AugustIntuitLong

Tuesday 25 AugustZoom CommunicationsLong

Just beyond the seven-day window comes the block that weighs most on the current theme: Salesforce and CrowdStrike on 26 August, and Nvidia on the same date.

How I read itWhat we measured across a full season says that entering with the signal active ahead of results returns the same as entering without, but with twice the dispersion. So earnings work neither as a reason to enter nor as a reason to stay out: they are a size modifier. Across these six names our model is long four and short two, and the two sides arrive at the same appointment with opposite expectations. On Zoom and Intuit, both reporting on the 25th, our internal list already calls for minimum and reduced size.
Our system · Home Depot long (G / P) · Baidu short (G / P) · Walmart short (G / P) · Alibaba long (G / P) · Intuit long (G / P) · Zoom Communications long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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📉
THE COMPARISON
The two US baskets

Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: one closes a cycle, the other opens one

S&P 500 (SPY), the S&P 500 ETF, shed 0.47% and moved away from its record high, now 0.87% above. The buy signal has been open since 6 April, this is week twenty, it returns 13.72% and all three profit-taking windows have been reached: coverage of the trade is finished and only the trailing stop is in charge.

Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gave up just 0.16%, a third as much. Its buy signal was born on the close of 14 August: week two, still flat, with all three windows ahead and its record high 2.57% above the current price.

How I read itMonday's gap comes down to weights. The S&P basket carries 12.59% in financials, which lost a full point, and 9.86% in discretionary consumer, down 1.23%; the Nasdaq basket holds 0.24% financials and 50.54% technology, the second best sector of the day. When the blow lands on banks and consumers, the more diversified index is the one that suffers. The comparison that matters, though, is a different one: the first is twenty weeks in with every target banked and Signal Strength at 7%, the second is two weeks in with everything ahead and Strength at 33%. One is a trade to protect, the other a trade to build, and they call for different rules even sitting on the same market.
Our system · S&P 500 long (G / P) · Invesco QQQ Trust long (G / P)
Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page.
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The desk's take

August's rotation is happening inside technology, and both ends of the sector show it

The backdrop stays relaxed: stress indicators are down across the four-week span, equity volatility is 18% lower and market participation has grown 14% over the same period. An advance with breadth expanding rests on many legs, and while that holds the context allows work to be done.

Within the single session, though, all four risk sensors we track rose together: equity volatility plus 6.6%, bond volatility plus 8.7%, tail risk plus 3.0%, the BTP-Bund spread plus 1.7%. When they all move the same way on the eve of an event, what is being bought is protection for the event, and the regime stays where it was. One reading genuinely jars, and it is market participation, down 3.4% in a single session after three weeks of gains: it is the first crack in the sturdiest measure on the board, and it is worth watching whether it repeats.

The real theme of the day remains the rotation, and its direction needs reading carefully. The US technology sector closed higher while six of its heaviest names lost more than two and a half points each: money is moving within the sector, out of software margins and into the productive capacity of chips and memory. Read the price action of the individual stocks and you see a sector breaking; look at the basket and you see a sector holding. They are the same fact, and they belong side by side.

What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading — stops, break-even stops, trailing, and the declaration of stops that have been taken out — or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.

Previous editions
17 August 2026Technical analysis: AI debt hits Broadcom stock, thirty fresh buy signals and the Nasdaq ETF opens a new trade14 August 2026Technical analysis: Cisco stock punished on margins, AI software rallies and the Nasdaq signal turns tonight13 August 2026Technical analysis after the US inflation print: CoreWeave and Cisco stock light up AI, Nebius stocks jump 34%, Brazil falls again12 August 2026Technical analysis of oil and semiconductor stocks: Alphabet stock pays for capex, Riot stock jumps on Anthropic, Brazil downgraded11 August 2026Technical analysis of oil and semiconductor stocks: Chevron and ExxonMobil stock run, NVIDIA stock pays for Beijing7 August 2026Technical analysis: flat indices, broken stocks - semiconductor stocks reset while Unity stock jumps 15%View all editions on the tag page →
Disclaimer. The content on this page is published for educational and informational purposes and reflects the author's personal opinion and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment solicitation, or a personalised recommendation. Trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss of the capital invested. Every operating decision rests solely with the reader, who acts independently and in full awareness of that risk. AiTrading67 is not a broker or financial intermediary and is not affiliated with any broker or trading platform.
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