There are 27 new buy signals from the week that closed on Friday, and this is their third day of life: the point where the difference between those that have started working and those that have not stops being noise. Below are 12 of them, ranked from best to worst by return from the signal, and the horizon throughout is weekly swing trading. Three families hold them together: gold and its miners, European and American defence, and large-cap technology.

Wednesday's session turned on a single number, and that number landed where it had to. US July inflation rose 0.1% on the month and 0.2% at the core, taking annual rates to 3.4% and 2.5%, both a tenth below June and in line with expectations. In a normal cycle it would be a non-event; today it is a relief, because the market does not fear a missed cut but an incoming hike.

The consequences were immediate and orderly: September hike odds fell to 38% from 48% the day before and from 70% a month ago, the US ten-year eased for a second consecutive session towards 4.68%, and the dollar weakened. Across the stress complex the move was collective: equity volatility lost 4.8% on the day and 22.5% over four weeks, bond volatility — the only tension measure that had been rising — gave up 7.5% in a single day, and the Italy-Germany spread tightened 3.1%.

The technical analysis I take from this concerns price rather than the print. SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, moved less than half a percentage point on the most anticipated day of the month and closed exactly on the lower edge of its congestion band, re-entering it after leaving the day before. An index that breathes less than half its normal range on inflation day has decided nothing: it has postponed, and price action trading reads that as congestion rather than direction. Buy volume recovered to 33.43% from 25.14%, so selling pressure eased without reversing.

If the macro removed a risk, results provided the push. CoreWeaveLong posted quarterly revenue of $2.58bn, up 112% year on year, with an adjusted loss of $1.03 per share better than expected, full-year guidance raised to $12.4-13.2bn and a backlog of $104bn: the stock had gained over 13% after Tuesday's close and added 19.28% in Wednesday's session. CiscoLong followed with a record quarter — revenue at $17.3bn, up 18%, adjusted earnings at $1.22, up 23%, AI-related orders up roughly four and a half times — closing 2.86% higher near its highs.

The coda is a reminder that the market is demanding: despite the beat, Cisco stock shed around 4.6% after the close, penalised by a margin outlook weighed down by a more hardware-heavy product mix. It is the pattern that has separated winners from losers in this theme for months: guidance counts, yesterday's numbers do not.

The pull spread across the whole scale of the sector: NebiusShort up 34.14%, Super MicroLong up 19.02%, Dell TechnologiesLong up 9.87%, IRENShort up 9.86%, Credo TechnologyLong up 8.26%, Arista NetworksLong up 6.39%, OracleLong up 5.36%. Three of those moves ended up among the day's outsized ones, meaning they travelled more than twice their own typical swing.

Our model comes into this session with the right positions already open for months. On Dell it is long since February with a 227.19% gain from the signal, on Arista Networks since June with plus 24.06%: two trades the session rewarded without any need to chase. We stay short on Nebius stock and IREN, both of which joined the rally. A sector jumping as a block after results is not noise, it is money coming back: telling a return of money from a rebound is the work an ai trading system does by scanning the whole universe before picking a side, and it is where a trading strategy earns its keep.

In an index pulled higher by artificial intelligence, the large names outside that theme lost ground, which is why the Nasdaq added less than one per cent on a day like this. MetaShort shed 3.38%, MicrosoftLong 2.26%, AmazonLong 1.83%, and TeslaShort 1.59% despite the calmer mood.

The case that keeps dragging is AlphabetShort, still among the weakest of the mega caps. The real catalyst dates from 5 August — the departure of its chief scientist after twenty-seven years, alongside other senior researchers — but the market continues to discount uncertainty over AI research leadership, concerns about rising data-centre capex, and a regulatory front that will not close, with the distribution-payments question in the background.

Among semiconductor stocks the session marked a return instead: NVIDIALong up 3.03% after weeks of indecision. The rotation rewarded silicon and infrastructure and left advertising and services behind. Worth noting that European technology did the opposite at minus 0.76%: the move came from two American companies' results, so it stays a corporate fact before a sector one.

The day's broadest move came from São Paulo, where the main index fell 2.5% in a sixth consecutive down session. The trigger was the central bank minutes, which pointed to rates staying higher for longer and cooled hopes of a faster cutting cycle, all in an election year. Banks paid the heaviest bill, but the commodity pillars were not spared either: ValeShort lost around 2% and PetrobrasLong 1.3% despite higher crude, both on heavy volume from institutional rebalancing.

There is something on our model worth isolating and stating precisely. The weekly signal on Itaú UnibancoShort, Banco do BrasilShort, ItausaShort, BradescoShort, CosanShort and AmbevShort turned to sell on this week's candle, that is, while the market was falling: those six signals are still forming and only confirm at Friday's close. On ValeShort the sell has instead been active and confirmed since May, up 10.2% from the signal.

One technical detail matters more than the chronicle. Among the day's outsized moves sits MercadoLibreLong at minus 5.76%, listed in the United States but earning most of its revenue in Brazil: when the information is the country, individual names stop telling different stories and geography counts for more than the exchange the stock trades on.

Milan held up better than the other European markets, and the usual trio did the pushing. EniLong led the board, hooked to crude and to the geopolitical chessboard, with our buy signal active since mid-July and a 3.92% gain from the signal. On defence, LeonardoLong rose after a favourable RBC opinion, also supported by the European rearmament theme: the signal has been a buy since late July and carries plus 8.38%. FincantieriLong also did well, continuing on the subsea consolidation and naval defence theme.

On the banks moves were minimal but the direction is clear: UniCreditLong shaved a gain while confirming itself as the listing's largest by market value, while Intesa SanpaoloLong gave up a few tenths with the MPS deal now expected in the September-October window. Banco BPMLong remains the most advanced trade of the group.

A technical note on the banks, because that is where our position is most exposed. The weekly signal on Intesa Sanpaolo, UniCredit and Banco BPM has been a buy since April, and the three positions are up 21.18%, 18.02% and 33.93% respectively from the signal. Relative strength on the weekly, though, sits above 70 on all three: these are mature trades, where the useful work is protecting the result rather than adding to it. EnelLong is instead the only one of the group still below its entry level, with price just above its own weekly Point of Inversion.

The UK basket closed lower for a third consecutive session, weighed down by commodities retreating intraday and by weakness among the heavyweights. The corporate news of the day was a change of hands in renewables: ShellLong sold its European onshore renewables division to France's TotalEnergiesLong, a move that realigns both around their core business. Both closed lower with the oil complex, and on both our weekly signal is a buy: this is the case where the decline runs against the signal rather than confirming it, and the lens flags without concluding.

BPLong fared worse in the same London crude pullback, despite Brent closing higher. Against the trend, Rolls-RoyceLong gained around 2%, extending its very strong 2026 run on defence and aerospace: our signal has been a buy since mid-April with plus 17.96% from the signal, and the stock sits 2.47% below its record with relative strength still under 65 on both horizons — meaning room ahead, which is rare in this phase.

HSBCLong closed slightly higher after results, though the market judged the new share buyback programme too small. In the background, without a catalyst of its own, sits the weakness of AstraZenecaShort, still under pressure after merger speculation and a failed clinical trial earlier this month: there our model has been short since mid-July.

Six baskets tell the session. The semiconductor ETFShort semiconductor ETF was the strongest at plus 2.32%, ahead of the broad technology sector, and carries plus 3.00% on the week: it is how you hold silicon without depending on a single name, and tonight it faces its own test with results from the largest equipment maker. There our weekly signal has been a sell since mid-July.

The US technology ETFLong on US technology led the sector map at plus 1.49% and is the most direct way to take the earnings theme without choosing among seven names that rose together; its weekly signal turned to buy on this very candle, so it is provisional. The European technology basket did the opposite at minus 0.76%, and the gap between the two says the move started in America.

Gold ETFs remain the calmest way to take the metal theme: SPDR Gold SharesLong sits among this week's new buy signals, carries plus 1.62% from the signal and has the lowest typical loss of the group at 2.3%; over the past month it has gained 8.81%. The metal closed at record levels, above $4,400 an ounce in the morning, and rises while equity volatility falls: anyone looking for the exposure without the miners' volatility finds it here.

Two Europe-listed baskets complete the picture, and they deserve naming for what they are. The US technology UCITS ETFLong tracks the S&P 500 technology sector in UCITS form and lists in Frankfurt: up 0.79% on the day and 2.96% over the month, it is the European way to hold the very theme that moved Wall Street on Wednesday, without taking a dollar instrument. The European basic resources ETFLong on European basic resources added 0.37% and carries plus 6.73% over the month, and it is the basket closest to the industrial metals theme: copper closed near its record highs on a squeeze between the two main metal exchanges, and this is how we get to be there.

At the other end of the map, the US materials ETFLong on US materials lost 1.24% and was the day's worst, followed by consumer discretionary at minus 1.13% and communications at minus 0.90%. Those are three baskets Friday's report had in good health and the following sessions have contradicted: the badge reads sharp divergence on all three. The semiconductor ETF remains the way to hold silicon without depending on a single name, and it is the sector facing its own test tonight with results from the largest equipment maker.

The calendar for the coming days is concentrated at two points. The first lands tonight, after the US close, with Applied MaterialsShort: it is the test of sentiment towards semiconductor equipment makers, the sector that returned to rising on Wednesday, and our model has held it short since late July. The second is Brazilian and arrives in the worst possible week, with utilities and financials reporting while the index falls for a sixth session.

Thursday 13 · Applied MaterialsShort · RWEShort · OndasLong · CPFL EnergiaShort · LightLong · BradesparShort

Friday 14 · CosanShort · PDG RealtyLong

Thursday 20 · WalmartShort

Tuesday 25 · ZoomLong · IntuitLong · AutodeskLong

The name worth pausing on is JD.comLong, reporting today. Our pre-earnings lens assigns it four active clues — improving money flow, rising buy volume, compressing volatility and a pattern of higher lows — and the weekly signal has been a buy since mid-July. Four favourable clues are not a forecast about the result: they say the structure was preparing itself, and structure does not know what the accounts contain.

One point of method we make every time. Our measurement of the July season says entering with an active signal ahead of results returns 2.12% on average against 2.03% for the control group: earnings do not move the average return, they widen the dispersion. They remain a reason to enter smaller, and it is worth remembering the measurement covers a single season.

The four European baskets we follow all have an active weekly buy signal dating from the first half of April, so eighteen weeks, and all four sit above their own weekly Point of Inversion. That is where the similarity ends. The difference lies in what they have produced and in how far they are from their highs.

FTSE MIBLong remains the best of the four at plus 15.73% from the signal and stands 0.61% below its record. CAC 40Long follows with plus 7.22% and minus 0.89% from its high, DAXLong carries plus 6.32% and sits 0.79% below. Three baskets glued to their peaks, with distance from the weekly Point of Inversion between 2.39% and 2.99%: a thin, even cushion that has narrowed by a few tenths since yesterday, because the European session was negative while America rose.

The fourth is the one that says something. FTSE 100Long on the UK basket has produced plus 1.73% in eighteen weeks, a quarter of the French figure and a ninth of the Italian, and sits 7.96% below its record — ten times the distance of the other three. That is the divergence worth watching: when three indices on one continent are at their highs and the fourth is almost 8% below, the fourth is not taking part in the same move. Its distance from the Point of Inversion, 1.81%, is also the thinnest of the group, and it is the basket most exposed to oil and mining names.

On Wednesday SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, and QQQLong, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, parted ways for the first time after a week of moving together: plus 0.25% the first, plus 0.73% the second, almost triple. The reason lies in composition — SPY weighs 32.91% in technology and 12.59% in financials, QQQ 50.54% and 0.24% — and on a day when technology gains 1.49% and financials 0.21%, that difference in weights is worth exactly the half point of gap.

The technical fact is elsewhere, though, and it is the most important of the week. On QQQ our weekly signal flipped to buy on the forming candle, cancelling the sell active since 20 July: that short closes down 5.77%. It is provisional until Friday's close, and it needs saying that way. On SPY the buy signal has not been interrupted since April: the two baskets are converging again after a month of saying opposite things.

The two maturity readings mirror each other. Setup quality — the index that measures which phase the structure is in, from compressed to stretched — sits at 68.7 on SPY and 32.8 on QQQ: the first is stretched and has banked all three profit-taking windows, the second is compressed and its windows do not exist yet, because they are calculated once the signal confirms. One number cools the enthusiasm though: buy volume on QQQ was 18.01% in the session, meaning more than four fifths of trades came from the selling side on a day that closed higher.