The weekly analysis that closed on Friday opened eighteen new buy signals and no sell signals. Five were discarded for insufficient setup quality, leaving thirteen tradable. On Monday I wrote that twelve out of thirteen had ended below their entry level, and that two sessions judge nothing. On Tuesday the count flipped: eleven out of thirteen closed higher and nine out of thirteen now sit above their entry level.

Twenty-four hours after selling off, the whole chip chain recovered ground. Super Micro Computer gained 9.35%, IREN 6.03%, Advanced Micro Devices 4.91%, Micron Technology 2.48%, NVIDIA 2.19% and TSMC 1.78%; the semiconductor ETF closed up 1.56% and the US technology ETF up 0.94%, first of Wall Street's eleven sectors. In Germany Infineon Technologies added 1.27%. Only Sandisk, down 0.83%, and Broadcom, down 0.56%, were left behind.

The bill was paid by the cybersecurity names, for a different calendar reason: Palo Alto Networks lost 3.13% and CrowdStrike 2.78%, the latter on the eve of its own results. Both are among the year's best performers, and the drop has the flavour of profit-taking. The price action of the two sessions therefore tells the same story seen from two sides: risk has not left the technology sector, it has moved within it, from those who have already cleared the number to those who still have to face it.

The single widest move across the whole universe we follow came from health care: Moderna stock gained 14.36% in one session. Around it the sector moved unevenly but with the right sign: Novavax up 6.55%, Beam Therapeutics up 9.50% and uniQure up 7.60% — the last two both more than one and a half times their typical swing — with the US health care ETF up 0.34% and the European one up 1.25%, first of the continent's nine sectors. In London AstraZeneca added 3.02%.

What makes this interesting is that three of these names — Moderna, Novavax and the two gene-therapy companies — belong to the most speculative end of the sector, small caps with wide swings. When biotechnology moves together on this scale, it is not company news: it is risk being reallocated into the sector.

The theme that crosses the day without stopping at borders is the cooling of luxury, and it reads across three markets at once. In Paris Kering lost 3.34%, the widest drop among Europe's large names on the day. In Milan Moncler stock gave up 2.22%, Brunello Cucinelli 1.89% and Davide Campari-Milano 1.21%; in New York Ferrari shed 0.54%, hit by signs of cooling in the segment despite the 3.5 billion euro share buyback.

Four different companies, three different exchanges, no shared company news: when that happens the move is not about the businesses but about end demand in the sector. It is the kind of rotation worth watching over weeks rather than sessions, because discretionary consumption turns slowly and then stays turned for a long time.

The Milan market closed up 0.37%, back above 52,800 points after touching three-week lows. At the top Tenaris stock with 3.74% and Prysmian stock with 2.89%, the latter dragging European industrials along; then INWIT up 2.04%, Stellantis stock up 1.40% after the previous day's slump, Fincantieri up 1.04% on Viking exercising an option for two additional ships, and ENAV up 1.19%. At the bottom, luxury and Eni stock, down 1.15%, still on the proposal by six European countries to tax oil company windfall profits.

The dominant story remains bank consolidation. Monte dei Paschi shares rose 0.48% while Banco BPM stock fell 0.49%, on the day the latter's board judged the former's offer to carry no premium; Intesa Sanpaolo stock up 0.31%, UniCredit stock up 0.24% on the day Intesa confirmed its positive rating with a 103 euro target, Mediobanca up 0.57%, BPER Banca up 0.64% and Generali stock up 0.53%. All moves below one percent, on a story filling half the financial front pages: attention vastly exceeds movement.

Europe had the better day of the two continents: nine sectors out of nine positive or flat, with health care up 1.25%, industrials up 1.20% and telecoms up 1.13%. The corporate case is Siemens Energy, up 2.70%, on reports that an investment bank has been mandated to prepare the possible sale of the majority stake in the steam turbine business. Also strong: Siemens, up 1.76% with its daily buy signal firing on Tuesday, Bayer up 1.61% and Deutsche Bank up 0.44%. The German index closed up 0.65%, the best of the four.

Two sectors lagged. Luxury, covered in the section above, and defence: Rheinmetall shed 0.62% and Leonardo stock 0.66%, while in the United States three names in the sector have their weekly Inversion Point turning to sell. In London the index gained 0.32% with AstraZeneca up 3.02% and Glencore up 1.52%; in Germany adidas lost 1.71% and SAP 0.93%.

On Monday I wrote that the CAC 40 was crossing its weekly Inversion Point and that a sell signal was printing on the candle in progress. On Tuesday the French basket shaved off another 0.09% and the crossing is complete: for our model the buy signal born in spring is now contestable, and Friday's close decides whether it actually ends. It is the first of the four European baskets to break the picture set in April.

The other three held and even gained ground: the German up 0.65%, best of the day, the Italian up 0.37% and the British up 0.32%. The ranking by return from signal is unchanged, with the Italian ahead 13.69% since 7 April — and it is also the basket with the largest gain and the thinnest cushion above its reference level.

Anyone watching baskets rather than single stocks had a readable day. In the United States, technology led with 0.94% and communications followed with 0.77%; at the bottom the US energy ETF, down 1.66%, last of the eleven sectors, and the consumer staples ETF at minus 1.06%, which twenty-four hours earlier had been leading. In Europe the picture is entirely positive, with the European health care ETF up 1.25% and the European industrials ETF up 1.20%.

Among the baskets worth watching even without a dramatic day, the gold ETF added 0.32% and stays the most consistent of the group, with the metal up 15% over four weeks and rising for four straight; the semiconductor ETF recovered 1.56% after the previous day's slump. For anyone asking what an ETF is, here is the practical answer: they are baskets that track a whole sector, and they let you buy a theme without picking the single name — which on a day like this would have spared you both Super Micro's 9.35% and Palo Alto's minus 3.13%.

A dense week, with the bulk concentrated into forty-eight hours. These are the names in our universe reporting results, with the model's position next to each.

Wednesday 26 August

NVIDIA Long

Salesforce Long

CrowdStrike Short

HP Long

Li Auto Long

Thursday 27 August

Marvell Technology Long

Autodesk Long

Tuesday 1 September

NIO Short

Credo Technology Long

Palo Alto Networks Long

Wednesday 2 September

Broadcom Long

The name that weighs most is NVIDIA, tonight after the close: expectations point to revenue around 91.8 billion dollars, with margins and the ramp of the new platform as the real yardsticks. It is the number that pushed half the sector down on Monday and back up on Tuesday, without anything happening in between.

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.32% and Invesco QQQ Trust, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 0.62%: twice as much. On Monday the opposite happened, with the Nasdaq losing three times as much. The mechanism is always the same and lies in the weights: the Nasdaq basket carries 50.54% in technology against 32.91% for the S&P 500, and just 0.24% in financials against 12.59%. When technology is the only sector moving, the Nasdaq doubles; when it falls while financials rise, it triples on the way down.

The difference the weights do not explain is one of state. On the S&P 500 the signal has been open since 6 April and returns 12.72%: this is the twenty-first week, all three profit-taking windows have been banked and the weekly Inversion Point sits 11% above the entry price, so the trade is sheltered. On the Nasdaq 100 the signal was born at the close of the 10-14 August week, so the one in progress is the third: the position is 2.78% below entry and its inversion level sits 4.9% below the entry price. The first has a gain to preserve, the second a position to defend.