Technical analysis: semiconductor stocks slide before Nvidia, Stellantis stock drops 4.8% on tariffs
The 24 August session had two stories that meet only at the end. The first is political: on the Milan market Stellantis stock lost 4.77%, the worst performer of the market, after trade talks between Washington and Ottawa collapsed, while Eni stock gave up 2.51% on a proposal by six European countries to tax oil company windfall profits. The second is a matter of the calendar: on Wall Street the whole chip chain took risk off ahead of NVIDIA earnings, due Wednesday after the close, with Micron Technology down 5.83%, Advanced Micro Devices down 3.49% and Intel down 3.12%. In between, US payment networks had the best day on the tape: Mastercard up 3.31% and Visa up 3.06%.
In the cards below you will find the technical analysis of the names that actually moved the day — from Stellantis, Eni and Nexi in Milan to Micron, Nvidia, Mastercard and Tesla on Wall Street — the thirteen new buy signals born with the week just closed, the map of European indices and of the ETFs, and for each of them where our model stands, long or short, with the date the signal fired.
- The week's new buy signals
- Semiconductor stocks de-risk before Nvidia
- Mastercard and Visa move three times their typical swing
- Risk deflates, metals hold
- Stellantis stock down 4.8% on tariffs
- European autos and defence: Volkswagen warns
- European indices: the CAC 40 crosses the line
- The ETFs that moved the session
- This week's earnings
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
The week's new buy signals, tested by their first session
The weekly analysis closed on Friday opened eighteen new buy signals and no sell signals. Five were discarded on insufficient setup quality — among them Moderna and Coinbase Global — leaving thirteen tradable. Monday was their first session, and the market gave them no help: twelve out of thirteen closed below the day's line, on a day when the US benchmark lost just 0.29%.
Technical analysis of semiconductor stocks: the sector de-risks before Nvidia
Wall Street's decline had a single author, and that author has a date in the diary. Micron Technology lost 5.83%, the worst in the basket, Sandisk 6.45%, Super Micro Computer 5.56%, Advanced Micro Devices 3.49%, Intel 3.12%, NVIDIA itself 2.91%, Broadcom 2.63% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.11%. Semiconductor stock leadership evaporated in a single session. Semiconductor stocks were the day's worst group in our universe, with not one of them closing higher: the semiconductor ETF ended down 2.67% and the US technology ETF down 1.78%, last of the eleven Wall Street sectors. Micron stocks alone accounted for a third of the sector's decline. In Germany Infineon Technologies gave up 3.23%.
What all of them share is that none has a story of its own. Nvidia reports on Wednesday 26 after the close, and half the tech tape moved into a defensive stance forty-eight hours early. This is a sector move, mechanical, and it should be read as such: Monday's price action trading says nothing about the individual companies, it says the market does not want to carry that exposure naked over a number that frames the entire artificial intelligence story.
Technical analysis of US payment stocks: Mastercard and Visa move three times their typical swing
While the chips were falling, money went to the other end of the tape. Mastercard gained 3.31% and Visa 3.06%: two companies of that size moving together by more than three times their typical daily swing is not noise, it is a sector waking up. Above them the US financials ETF closed up 1.29%, second of the eleven sectors, with VFH Financials US up 1.06%; in Europe the banks ETF added 0.56%.
The day's rotation was defensive and complete: US consumer staples on top at 1.70%, then financials and utilities; technology, energy and industrials at the bottom. That is the classic shape of a session in which the market trims risk without leaving: it does not sell, it changes horses. For anyone watching Mastercard stocks and Visa stocks as a pair, the two moved almost in lockstep.
Risk deflates while metals hold: technical analysis of AST SpaceMobile, Robinhood and Vale
The most speculative corner of the market handed back in one session much of what it took on Friday. AST SpaceMobile lost 9.18%, the widest move of the day among the names we follow; Robinhood Markets 4.17% after Friday's jump, Tesla 3.83%, Coinbase Global 3.76%, Ford Motor 3.33%. Against the tide Strategy, up 2.83%, the only one in the group to rise. Anyone tracking Tesla stock and Coinbase stock as proxies for risk appetite got a clear reading.
Metals held, and that is the day's divergence. In Brazil Vale gained 2.80% and pulled the local index along, while Petroleo Brasileiro San Paolo shed 4.86% — though there the move is technical: Monday was the ex-date of the cash dividend of 1.348 reais. Energy was weighed down instead by softer crude, which fell after the US sanctions package aimed at anyone trading with Iran.
Technical analysis of Stellantis stock: down 4.8% on tariffs while the banks hold
The Milan session split in two along a political line. Stellantis stock lost 4.77%, by far the worst on the market, after trade talks between the United States and Canada collapsed and Washington threatened to double tariffs on Canadian cars, parts and steel to 50% from January 2027. Stellantis stocks in Milan and in New York moved together, down 4.77% and 3.51%. Eni stock gave up 2.51% after six European countries proposed discussing a windfall tax mechanism on oil companies in September. Also under pressure Prysmian, down 5.16%, Avio down 4.73%, Leonardo stock down 2.63% and STMicroelectronics stock down 2.39%. The Italian index closed 0.24% lower: behind an almost motionless index sat a day of wide moves in opposite directions.
At the other end of the list stand the banks and the payment names. Nexi stock gained 4.61%, the best of the day, with the daily buy signal firing on Monday itself. UniCredit stock added 1.32% on reports of a September meeting between its chief executive and the German minister, Mediobanca 1.08% on the day of the Monte dei Paschi shareholder meeting, Generali stock 1.02%, BPER Banca 0.89%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 0.74% and Monte dei Paschi stock 0.38%. Outside finance, Davide Campari-Milano rose 1.32% and Pirelli & C. 1.28%, both with a freshly lit daily buy.
Technical analysis of European autos and defence: Volkswagen warns on costs
The continent's corporate case is Volkswagen AG Pref, down 1.60%, after its chief executive warned that pressure on the car industry will force further cost cuts and job reductions. It is the same theme that hit Stellantis in Milan, read from the industrial side instead of the tariff side. Germany was also weighed down by technology in the pre-Nvidia caution, with Infineon Technologies off 3.23%, while SAP shaded 0.49% lower and Bayer gained 0.92%. The German index closed essentially flat, down 0.06%.
London held up, adding 0.28%, but under the surface defence did not follow: BAE Systems gave up 1.36% and Rolls-Royce 0.13%, while in Germany Rheinmetall lost 2.61%. Softer crude weighed on Shell, down 0.37%, and AstraZeneca shed 1.06%. On the upside Prudential, up 1.41% on the eve of its own results.
European indices: the CAC 40 has crossed the line that decides the signal
Last Friday I wrote that the CAC 40 sat half a point above its weekly Inversion Point, the level that decides whether the April signal is still alive. On Monday it crossed that line: the French basket now sits 2.44% below its own level, and a sell signal is printing on the weekly candle now forming. It is provisional — only Friday's close confirms it — but it is the first of the four European baskets to break the picture built in spring.
The other three still have room, and the ranking by cushion is clear: the UK basket is the best protected at 2.02% above its level, then Germany at 1.29% and Italy at 0.48%. On return since the signal the order reverses: Italy is up 13.27% since 7 April, Germany 5.39% since the 13th, France 4.50% and the UK just 2.31%. On distance from the record high, finally, the UK is the furthest at 7.44% below, against 1.66% for Germany.
The ETFs that moved the session: staples, financials and semiconductors
Anyone watching baskets rather than single names had a very readable Monday. On top the US consumer staples ETF at 1.70% and the US financials ETF at 1.29%, with the US utilities ETF at 1.05%; at the far end the US technology ETF, down 1.78%, last of the eleven. The rotation is defensive and complete.
Among the baskets worth watching even without a dramatic session, the gold ETF added 0.79% and remains the steadiest of the group, with bullion up 15% over four weeks and rising for four straight; the semiconductor ETF instead gave up 2.67%, the worst of the day, for the calendar reasons set out above. Worth adding the S&P 500 ETF, which shaded 0.29% lower: the broadest US basket moved less than a third of what the technology one did.
This week's earnings: Nvidia reports on Wednesday night
A crowded week, concentrated on three days. These are the names in our universe reporting results, with the model's position beside each one.
Tuesday 25 August
Intuit Long
Zoom Communications Long
Wednesday 26 August
Salesforce Long
CrowdStrike Short
HP Long
Li Auto Long
Prudential Short
NVIDIA Long
Thursday 27 August
Autodesk Long
Marvell Technology Long
The name that weighs most is NVIDIA, on Wednesday after the close: it is the number that has already dragged six names in our universe lower two days early, and that will move the whole chain — including Marvell Technology, which reports the day after.
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: two buy signals, two different jobs
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 0.29% and Invesco QQQ Trust, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 1.00%: more than three times as much. Both are on a buy signal, but the two positions have nothing in common.
On the S&P 500 the signal has been open since 6 April and returns 12.36%: this is week twenty-one, all three profit-taking windows have been banked and the weekly Inversion Point sits 11% above the entry price, meaning the trade is sheltered and the level protects a gain already earned. On the Nasdaq 100 the signal was instead born at the close of the 10-14 August week, so the one under way is the third: the position is 3.39% under water and its Inversion Point sits 4.90% below entry, meaning that trade is not yet protected. The first has a gain to defend, the second a position to rescue.
The reason is in the weights, and on Monday it showed in full. The Nasdaq basket carries 50.54% in technology against 32.91% for the S&P 500, and just 0.24% in financials against 12.59%. With technology at minus 1.78% and financials at plus 1.29%, those twelve and a half points of cushion are the entire difference between minus 0.29% and minus 1.00%.
The backdrop: nothing broken, but the market is narrowing
The stress backdrop remains calm, and that deserves to be said before anything else: equity volatility is essentially flat over four weeks, bond volatility is down 11%, tail risk is marginally higher, and none of our indicators has moved enough to trip the shock sensor. The one that nags is the BTP-Bund spread, widening for three consecutive weeks: the move is tiny, 1.5% over the month, but persistence counts for more than size.
The number that does deserve attention is market participation, the share of stocks rising alongside the index: it has fallen for six sessions in a row and shed 11.8% since 13 August, while the US benchmark still sits two points from its record. When price holds and breadth thins, what carries the index is an ever smaller group of names. The same thing shows from below: twenty-three of the fifty-one instruments we monitor carry a weekly buy signal with the daily one already turned to sell, and six of the seven indices we follow are among them.
The dollar-gold pair still sets the backdrop — the dollar slipping, bullion up 15% over the month and rising for four weeks — but on Monday the commodity theme split in two for the first time in three weeks: metals kept climbing, energy did not, after the US sanctions package on Iran pushed crude lower. Anyone treating the two as a single block should stop. The week carries two binary events forty-eight hours apart: Nvidia's results on Wednesday night and the new Federal Reserve chair's first Jackson Hole address on Friday.
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The full analyses behind the cards on this page.