Technical analysis: Marvell stock drops 10.28% as Wall Street sells the guidance, while Frankfurt closes a whisker from its record

The weekly analysis that closed on Friday evening opened 9 new buy signals, against 17 the week before. The protocol discards two for insufficient setup quality — Robinhood Markets and IBM — and puts one under watch, Cyrela, because it is born with the daily signal already pointing the other way. That leaves six tradable. Return from entry is zero across the board, and rightly so: the entry level is Friday's own close.

Three companies published better-than-expected results and all three were sold. Marvell stock lost 10.28% — Marvell stocks were the worst of the three — on revenue up 58% from demand for custom silicon for artificial intelligence, earnings per share merely in line, and a multi-year outlook judged short on detail despite a Google agreement worth up to $12.2 billion. Dell stocks gave up 3.39% after beating on the quarter and disappointing on next-quarter guidance, even while lifting its AI server shipment estimate to $20 billion. Autodesk stock lost 3.67% on the same flaw.

The most violent move of the day came from outside the earnings calendar: PayPal stocks fell 12.71% — four times its typical swing — after the Advent-Stripe consortium abandoned its takeover. NVIDIA shed 4.57% alongside the sector. On the other side ServiceNow gained 4.54%, Microsoft stock 1.68% and Salesforce stock 1.57%.

Beneath the sector's 1.55% decline a far more violent move played out, and it concerns one specific family of stocks. IREN lost 12.53%, MARA 10.11%, Cleanspark 9.96%, Riot Platforms 9.05%, Applied Digital 7.65%, IonQ 7.68% and Circle Internet 7.53%. These are crypto mining, quantum computing and the compute infrastructure behind ai trading: the lightest end of the theme, the part that moves at seven or eight times its own sector. In the same group Strategy shed 7.34% and Coinbase Global 6.33%.

Names with an industrial story underneath held up far better: Palantir Technologies closed up 0.19% while still sitting 35% below its August highs, Advanced Micro Devices eased 2.33% and Nebius 4.26%. On the Chinese side Alibaba gained 2.23% despite announced legal actions and a $10.2 billion share placement, and Baidu added 0.19%.

Milan closed up 0.69%, shrugging off Wall Street's nerves. Stellantis stock led at 2.28%, with luxury close behind as Ferrari stock added 1.93%. The banks came along: UniCredit stock rose 1.55%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 0.58%, Generali 0.50%, Banco BPM 0.35% and Monte dei Paschi 0.26%. Among utilities A2A gained 1.56% and Terna 1.05%. Consolidation talk continues to hang over the banking sector.

The sour note is Leonardo, worst in the index at -3.96%, a decline that even the successful launch of the MTG-I2 weather satellite — built by the joint venture in which the group holds 33% — could not offset. Prysmian stock also fell 1.25% and STMicroelectronics stock 0.54%, while Eni closed up 0.35%.

Europe closed higher across the board: Paris up 1.04%, Frankfurt 0.83%, Milan 0.69% and London 0.25%. The theme of the day was German autos, the best sector across both maps at 2.52%: Bayerische Motoren Werke stock gained 4.50%, Volkswagen stock 3.23% and Mercedes-Benz stock 2.96%.

Behind the carmakers the German list moved in an orderly fashion: Deutsche Bank stock up 1.35%, SAP stock up 0.76%, Infineon Technologies down 0.16%. In Paris luxury weighed while EssilorLuxottica gained 2.44%. London was flat: Unilever and Tesco both up 0.51%, London Stock Exchange up 0.22% and Glencore essentially unchanged at 0.05%.

On Friday morning this card counted 12 sells that were still provisional, printed on a weekly candle that had yet to close. The candle closed at the bell, and the final count is 16: Boeing, BAE Systems, BNP Paribas, AXA, VINCI, Eaton, First Solar, GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, Thales, Kering, Leonardo, Orange, PayPal, Industrials US and the French index.

The names that moved tell more than the count. Broadcom left the list: it was there on Friday morning and gone by the close, so the buy signal holds — and the company reports on Wednesday. Five new names entered, and three deserve a line: Leonardo, worst in the Milan index in that very session; PayPal, after its 12.71% fall on the abandoned takeover; and XLI, the US industrials ETF, the first sector basket to turn.

The four European baskets we follow all closed higher — Paris up 1.04%, Frankfurt 0.83%, Milan 0.69%, London 0.25% — but the difference that matters is not the day's move: it is where price sits relative to the level that decides the trade.

The German basket is in the twentieth week of a buy signal up 7.28% and stands a 0.06% rise from its all-time high: six hundredths of a point, which is to say effectively on the record. Seven days ago the gap was 0.73%. The Italian basket is in its twenty-first week with 13.44% accumulated, the best return of the four, and it has gained room: price now sits 0.90% above its own weekly Inversion Point, against 0.22% a week ago. The British one is in its twenty-first week with 2.12%, sits 1.98% above its level and has its record a distant 8.24% away. On Paris the sell signal is no longer provisional: it was declared with Friday's close, and the level now stands 2.79% above price.

At the two extremes of twenty sectors across two continents sit two baskets that do not usually move together. GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — fell 3.24%, its worst session of the month, after the hawkish tone from the US central bank lifted the dollar and expected rates. Almost identical was the decline in SOXX, the iShares semiconductor ETF, down 3.20%: here the engine was Marvell's collapse. And XLK, the US technology ETF, lost 1.55%, going from first place to last in a single session.

Leading the sector maps instead is XLC, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, up 1.42%. Among the baskets the public follows most, QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF, lost 0.65% and MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, gained 0.82%: the giants held while the lighter end of the theme fell in double digits. In Europe EXV1, the iShares European banks ETF, added 1.18%.

The coming week's calendar is short and lands on a sector that has just watched five companies punished despite beating on the quarter. Here is who reports over the next seven days among the names we follow, with our model's position beside each one.

Monday 1 September

Credo Technology Long

NIO Short

Palo Alto Networks Long

Wednesday 2 September

Broadcom Long

Snowflake Long

Thursday 3 September

Zscaler Long

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF (S&P 500), closed down 0.23%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust), down 0.65%, nearly three times as much. On Thursday, with technology up 3.16%, the ratio ran the other way: 1.37% against 0.66%. Two consecutive sessions with the same ratio up and down, and the explanation is weight: the Nasdaq basket carries 50.54% in technology against 32.91% for the other, and a bare 0.24% in financials against 12.59%.

Both closed inside their own congestion zone, resting on the lower edge. From there the two part company. To return to its record the first needs a 1.30% rise, the second 4.50%. The first is in the twenty-first week of a signal up 13.23%, with all three profit-taking windows already banked and its stop 11.01% above the entry price. The second is in the third week of a signal still 2.00% below entry, with every window ahead and its stop 5.25% under the entry.