Global ETFs: Weekly Technical Analysis

Global ETFs technical analysis — overall read

The basket of 65 global ETFs is split hard between its timeframes, and that tension is the whole story this week. Just under half the names, 47.7%, sit in the compressed band, making it comfortably the most crowded part of the distribution, while barely 18.5% carry a positive weekly MACD. Money flow is divided almost down the middle, with 41.5% of names showing positive Chaikin readings. The sharpest contrast is structural: 64.6% still hold a strong weekly EMA setup, yet an identical 64.6% have already broken down on the daily stack, a classic sign of longer frames lagging a daily rollover.

The clearest breakdowns cluster among the big US index and technology vehicles. SPY is squarely in that camp, with both weekly and daily MACD strongly bearish, a distributing CMF of -0.20, and an ADX of 17.2 that marks a sideways phase — momentum is gone but the move is not yet directional, and its 0/4 daily stack sits against a still-constructive weekly tendency. QQQ is further along: the same twin bearish MACD, weaker outflows at a CMF of -0.25, and an ADX of 31.7 that confirms a structured bearish trend, its -6.49% session underlining real thrust to the downside. XLK reads almost identically, distributing at -0.19 with a structured bearish ADX of 30.9. The most convinced selling, however, is in SOXX: its CMF of -0.31 is the weakest flow in the group, its ADX of 32.7 the most organised bearish trend, and a weekly death cross confirms the damage has reached the longer frame. The headline -70.72% session figure flags a distorted print rather than a tradable move, but the indicator stack is unambiguous.

A second group shows the weekly-versus-daily divergence more delicately. IWM pairs a fading weekly MACD with a daily MACD that is bullish but fading, mild outflows at -0.09, and a still-forming bearish ADX of 25.0 — a trend trying to build rather than one in command. XLI is more constructive beneath the surface: its daily MACD is strongly bullish even as the weekly fades, flows are neutral at 0.05, and its ADX of 22.8 is only a forming bearish trend, leaving it better poised than its broken daily stack suggests.

The genuinely coherent names are few. XLY, the only featured name in the mature band, carries strong bullish MACD on both frames, a full 4/4 daily stack and an active golden cross, with neutral flow at 0.02 and a forming bullish ADX of 23.1. VIG offers the most structured directional read of all, an ADX of 38.3 confirming a trend bullish in character, supported by buying flow at 0.06 and a 3/4 stack, though its fading weekly MACD hints the cycle is maturing. EXV2 stands apart with the strongest flow in the set, a CMF of 0.27 and a strongly bullish daily MACD, yet its ADX of 17.8 keeps it sideways and non-directional for now; its -1.25% session was also the most contained.

Into next week the question is whether the daily weakness that already dominates the basket pulls the still-strong weekly structures down with it. Watch whether distributing flows in the US tech complex deepen or stabilise, and whether the coherent holdouts keep their stacks intact. A turn in the forming trends, rather than the structured ones, will signal direction first.

This week Invesco QQQ Trust and iShares Semiconductor ETF are the most discussed names in the basket. QQQ · SOXX