Twenty-nine new buy signals and not a single sell: the week that closed on Friday pushed everything one way. Below are twelve of them, chosen as the most representative, and the horizon throughout is weekly swing trading. Two families hold them together: software and IT services, and European defence.

Tuesday's catalyst came from an earnings report. PalantirLong posted revenue of 1.94 billion, up 93% year on year, US commercial revenue up 149%, earnings per share of 0.41 dollars against 0.33 expected, and full-year guidance raised to around 8.15 billion. Palantir stock closed 29.45% higher, its largest single-day gain since 2024, and Palantir stocks were the most watched name of the session. The market read it immediately: if enterprise spending on artificial intelligence moves from pilots to full deployment, the silicon makers collect.

So the whole chain moved. Arm HoldingsShort up 17.36%, MarvellShort up 12.81%, Astera LabsShort up 12.65%, IntelShort and SandiskShort up 10.84%, Super MicroShort up 10.65%, MicronShort up 7.62%, BroadcomShort up 6.61%, NvidiaShort up 2.56%. Semiconductor stocks carried the tape, and the US technology ETF gained 4.98% in a single session — about what a sector normally does in a month. It is the same demand for computing power that sits behind the spread of ai trading and automated systems.

Our model came into the day with several short positions in the sector, and some paid well: the sell on Arm stock is worth 11.01% over six weeks — Arm stocks gave back none of it on the day, Marvell stocks 7.30% over five, Tesla 13.79% over seven. On Astera Labs and Credo Technology the day went against us, and we say so. On the buy side the arithmetic is simpler: AMDLong is up 111.63% since the April signal and Arista NetworksLong 12.28%. On Palantir our weekly signal turned to a buy on Monday, the day before the results, and the bar that confirms it closes on Friday.

The lesson of the day came after the close, and it matters more than the rally. AMDLong reported record revenue of 11.54 billion, up 50%, with the data centre segment at 6.7 billion and up 107%, and earnings per share of 1.66 dollars above estimates. AMD stock, up 7% during the session, then fell between 7% and 9% after hours: what frightened investors was capital spending almost tripled to 808 million, laid out ahead of the ramp on the new systems.

The same pattern hit the most awaited debut of the year. SpaceX, in its first quarter as a listed company, showed revenue of 7.8 billion up 92% and adjusted operating profit of 3.5 billion, up 191%; the stock gained 9% during the day and then dropped 8.6% after the close, once investors digested 18.4 billion of quarterly spending on artificial intelligence. On the other side Arista NetworksLong beat and raised — earnings per share of 1.02 against 0.90, revenue of 3.04 billion, current-quarter guidance of 3.3 billion against 2.94 expected — and Arista stocks added 11% after the bell.

The thread is clear: with valuations stretched, the market no longer pays for a simple beat, it pays for growth combined with spending discipline. On our desk Arista Networks has been a buy for eight weeks and is worth 12.28%, AMD since 6 April.

Outside technology the season offered a wide spread. CaterpillarShort delivered a record quarter — revenue of 20.5 billion, up 24% and above 20 billion for the first time, orders of 9.4 billion and a record backlog of 72.1 billion — and Caterpillar stock gained 5.60% as the company lifted its growth target for the year; Caterpillar stocks are one of the few industrial names we hold short into a record quarter. Marathon PetroleumLong surprised on doubled refining margins: net income of 5.1 billion and earnings per share of 17.73 dollars against 13.73 expected.

In travel BookingLong beat across the board: revenue of 7.35 billion up 8%, adjusted earnings per share of 2.54 against 2.45, room nights up 5% and gross bookings up 9%. Pharma moved in scattered order: MerckLong beat on revenue with Keytruda still growing 5% and raised guidance, PfizerShort beat and lifted its outlook, AmgenLong did best of all with revenue of 10.05 billion against 9.40 expected. McDonald'sShort was cooler, with US comparable sales below management's own expectations.

The most instructive case is SpotifyLong: 300 million subscribers and 777 million active users, up 12%, revenue of 4.78 billion up 14%, but earnings per share of 2.61 euros against 2.80 expected and soft guidance for the current quarter. Spotify stock drew a violent intraday reversal, and our buy on that name is the only losing position in this card.

The Milan market closed 1.39% higher at fresh highs, in a session driven by industrials and financials. LeonardoLong was among the best on the index at plus 3.33%: Leonardo stock comes from a buy signal that fired last week and has July's monthly signal on the same side. Brunello CucinelliLong was the brightest name on the main index.

Banks followed the move on a steeper yield curve, with the spread between Italian and German ten-year yields narrowing another 4.7%. UniCreditLong added 1.98% and is 19.01% up since the April signal, Intesa SanpaoloLong added 1.37% and is up 19.99%, MediobancaLong carries 35.95% over seventeen weeks and Monte dei PaschiLong 27.50%. Today it is the turn of Banco BPMLong and BPER BancaLong to report, arriving with 29.74% and 13.68% already banked from their respective signals.

Against the tide EniLong lost 1.88% while crude shed another 5.7%: our buy on that name is three weeks old and worth 1.26%, so the day went against us. On the other side of the card STMicroelectronicsShort gained 3.60% in the wake of US semiconductor stocks, and there our short opened on 13 July is still 12.77% ahead; the same goes for PrysmianShort, up 3.47% on the day with the sell still 8.48% in front, and for StellantisShort, where the short is worth 15.28%.

The DAX hit fresh all-time highs. BayerLong gained 2.40% after an unexpected rise in quarterly profit driven by its crop science division, and Bayer stock carries the highest conviction on our list today, at 89%; Bayer stocks have been on the buy side for seven weeks. InfineonShort added 3.66% and Siemens Energy 2%, both riding the artificial intelligence wave.

In London the spotlight was on HSBCLong, which reported first-half pre-tax profit up 23% to 19.5 billion — the second quarter alone up 60% — and restored buybacks with a programme of up to 1 billion dollars, judged too small by part of the market: the shares closed 0.80% lower despite the numbers. Our position there has been open for eighteen weeks and is worth 18.24%.

BPLong published solid figures — underlying replacement cost profit of 5.7 billion, operating cash flow of 10.9 billion — but the stock lost 4.11%, weighed down by the collapse in crude on the same day. In France the strategic news came from TotalEnergiesLong, which agreed to buy a 4 gigawatt renewables portfolio from ShellLong, 500 megawatts of it already operating or under construction.

Crude oil shed another 5.7% on the session, with Brent easing towards 79 dollars and giving back most of the geopolitical premium built through the quarter. Less expensive energy means less pressure on consumer prices: the US curve steepened, with the ten-year at 4.63% and the thirty-year at 5.20%, and financials used it to lead the market.

The dollar slipped below 100 and gold barely moved above 4,050 dollars, while copper gained 1.7%. The most striking number came from the tail-risk gauge, down 9.7% in a single session: protection was sold in bulk. No central bank meeting on the calendar.

On energy our model is long the US energy ETF and Europe oil and gas ETFLong, and neither position enjoyed the day. PetrobrasLong lost 0.97% following crude, while in Brazil Itaú UnibancoLong reported after the close.

Four baskets tell the day better than any commentary. The US technology ETF, US technology ETFShort, gained 4.98% in a single session: our short, opened two weeks ago, is down 6.59% and Tuesday's close cleared both published protection levels. The semiconductor ETF Semiconductor ETFShort added 6.80% and our sell there is nearly four points underwater, while its European cousin listed in Frankfurt, US technology UCITS ETF listed in FrankfurtShort, gained 3.95%. Semiconductor stocks and the semiconductor ETF moved as one block.

At the other end, the US energy ETF lost 0.46% and the European oil and gas ETF 1.62%, the only two sectors in the red alongside utilities. Worth remembering that the US energy ETF is still the best of the month at plus 9.96%: it is handing back a geopolitical premium rather than breaking down.

For those who look at baskets as instruments rather than thermometers, two notes. The gold ETF is our oldest short, opened in mid-March, and is worth 9.49%: the metal has climbed slowly for weeks without ever putting the signal in question. The US financials ETF, by contrast, has been a buy for seventeen weeks with 10.39% banked, and it is the only US sector in a favourable regime against the weekly picture.

Thirty-six names from our universe report over the next seven days, and today is the busiest of them. For each one you'll find our model's position: results do not change the signal, they change the size you take it with.

Wednesday 5 · Banco BPMLong · BPER BancaLong · ExpediaLong · ShopifyLong · FigmaLong · FastlyLong · Novo NordiskShort · Occidental PetroleumLong · MercadoLibreLong · Coca-Cola ConsolidatedLong · SandiskShort · IonQShort · TeraWulfShort · Energy FuelsShort · InfineonShort · Eli LillyLong · AppLovinShort · DisneyShort · BradescoLong

Thursday 6 · AirbnbLong · ConocoPhillipsLong · FiservLong · PelotonLong · Unity SoftwareLong · Deutsche TelekomLong · SiemensLong · RheinmetallLong · GeneraliLong · MediobancaLong · Monte dei PaschiLong · UnipolLong · PetrobrasLong

Friday 7 · Munich ReLong · AllianzLong · Take-TwoLong

Monday 10 · Rocket LabShort

The criterion is the one measured across this season: entering with an active signal ahead of results does not move the average return, it widens the spread of outcomes. So half size within three weeks of the date, minimum size within one week, and no automatic exclusions.

The four European baskets are all on the buy side and all have been since April, but the distance between them has widened. FTSE MIBLong leads with 15.46% banked over eighteen weeks and added 1.39% on Tuesday at fresh highs; CAC 40Long is worth 7.07% with plus 0.56% on the day; DAXLong 5.75% with plus 0.70% and an all-time high touched during the session.

FTSE 100Long remains the outlier: the London basket is worth barely 2.06% since the signal, a seventh of the Italian one over the same stretch, and on Tuesday it gained only 0.30%. It is the fourth consecutive day London closes below the other three, and the reason has not changed: little technology, a lot of pharma and a lot of oil, precisely the two sectors this phase is punishing.

The divergence is worth reading through the levels. The Italian basket sits 4.3% above its weekly inversion point, the German one 3.8%, the French 3.1%, while London has only 2.7% of margin. In a broad advance those are small differences; if the wind turns, the fourth is also the first to lose its signal.

The comparison between the two large US baskets is the best photograph of this phase. SPYLong, the ETF on the S&P 500, closed up 1.80% and set a new all-time high: no technical reference is left above the price, and our buy has been active for eighteen weeks with 13.52% banked. QQQShort, the ETF on the Nasdaq 100, did almost double at plus 3.40%, but remains 3.31% below its own record, and there our signal is a sell from three weeks ago, down 5.79%.

The explanation lies in the composition. The technology basket carries half its weight in a single sector — the one that gained 4.98% on Tuesday — and almost no exposure to financials, worth 12.6% of the S&P and just 0.24% of the Nasdaq. In the weeks when money went to the banks, the first collected and the second lagged; on Tuesday the opposite happened.

There is only one level to watch, and it needs saying even when it is uncomfortable: the weekly inversion point of the technology basket sits at 720.64 and Tuesday's close moved 0.45% above it. Our sell is technically beyond its own boundary, and Friday's close will decide. IWMLong, the small-company basket, gained 1.85% and is worth 15.46% since the April signal.