Twenty-nine new buy signals and not a single sell: the week that closed on Friday pushed everything one way. Below are twelve of them, chosen as the most representative. Two families hold them together, and the horizon throughout is weekly swing trading: software and IT services, a sector that seven days earlier sat on the sell side, and European defence, where the monthly signal agrees.

Monday's catalyst did not come from an earnings report but from Washington: with the planned strike on Iran called off and negotiations reopened, the geopolitical premium built into crude through July — more than twenty percentage points in a month — deflated within hours. Oil lost more than 5% against Friday's close, and the drop in energy costs, read by the market as relief on inflation, revived risk appetite. The Dow closed at a record, the S&P 500 added 1.48% and the Nasdaq 2.1%.

The usual handful of large caps led the way. AmazonLong added 4.6% and passed 3,000 billion dollars in market value for the first time — Amazon stocks have now doubled their weight in most US portfolios. MetaShort gained 6.6% as capital spending fears eased — Meta stock and Meta stocks were among the most watched names of the session, MicrosoftLong and AlphabetLong stopped just short of 5%, NvidiaShort added 2.9%. Our model comes into the day with three of the five on the right side: we are long Amazon stock, Microsoft stocks and Alphabet. We are short Meta and Monday's rebound went against us; we say so because it happened. The contrarian positions that are paying are older ones: PalantirShort up 25.91% over twenty-nine weeks, TeslaShort up 15.18% over seven, while the long on AMDLong is worth 97.78% since April.

Below the surface one divergence is worth recording: while America rallied, South Korea's KOSPI lost more than 5% and the Nikkei around a point, on concerns tied to artificial intelligence investment. The same theme, read two opposite ways twelve hours apart.

The hottest theme among mid-sized companies was nuclear power, fuelled by the electricity demand of artificial intelligence data centres — the same wave behind the spread of ai trading and automated systems. NuScale PowerShort gained around 7% and reports on Wednesday; uranium producer CamecoShort added 3.9%, supported by speculation over a possible listing of Westinghouse, in which the Canadian company holds a stake.

Our model sits on the opposite side of the day's move on both, and it is worth explaining why a twenty-four hour rally does not change the read. The two short positions have been open six and twelve weeks and are worth 7.68% and 14.35% respectively: Monday dented them without reversing them. In the same family the older sells are the more rewarding ones — Rocket LabShort up 36.02% over ten weeks and Virgin GalacticShort up 20.79% over eight — while on D-Wave QuantumShort, reporting Thursday, the position is roughly flat after a 10.51% jump in a single session.

After the close PalantirShort reported a second quarter above expectations — earnings per share of 0.41 dollars against a 0.34 consensus, the eighth consecutive beat — with revenue around 1.81 billion and full-year 2026 guidance raised to 7.65-7.66 billion, up 71%. The question remains the share price reaction: at this valuation the market wants a sharper acceleration before paying more. Our model has been short since January and the position is worth 25.91%.

On the other side Exxon MobilLong showed energy's other face with adjusted earnings of 3.52 dollars against 3.68 expected, 4.3% below consensus, leaving the stock broadly unchanged. We are long from three weeks ago and the position is down 1.20%: the oil collapse lands at the worst possible moment for that signal. Today's calendar is dense: AMDLong, with revenue expected around 11.2 billion and artificial intelligence chips in focus after the Anthropic deal, then BookingLong, CaterpillarShort, McDonald'sShort, PfizerShort, SpotifyLong, AmgenLong and Arista NetworksLong, plus SpaceX's first ever quarterly report after the bell.

The Milan market confirmed itself among Europe's best, with the main index up around 0.9%, in line with Paris and Frankfurt. Banks led, helped by steepening yield curves: UniCredit stock gained 2.6% and Intesa Sanpaolo stock 2.4%. Ferrari stock also did well, up 2.7% and among the index's main engines. Moving the other way, Eni stock fell 1.1% with the oil collapse, and Leonardo shed 0.7% on profit taking across defence after its late-July results.

Our model has been positioned on the Italian banks for months and the numbers show it: Intesa SanpaoloLong has been a buy for eighteen weeks and is worth 18.37%, UniCreditLong seventeen weeks and 16.70%, Banco BPMLong eighteen weeks and 27.10%, BPER BancaLong nine weeks and 11.30%. In the same family MediobancaLong is worth 34.88% over seventeen weeks, Monte dei PaschiLong 26.36% and GeneraliLong 23.45%. Ferrari stocks are a buy too, from nine weeks ago, worth 12.97%. On the other side of the board the sells have paid just as well: StellantisShort up 16.03% over nine weeks, STMicroelectronicsShort up 15.90% over four, PrysmianShort up 11.55% over five.

The Milan week comes alive on Wednesday and Thursday with earnings: Banco BPMLong and BPER BancaLong on Wednesday, then GeneraliLong, MediobancaLong and Monte dei PaschiLong on Thursday.

London stayed the weakest board on the continent, and the reason has a name: AstraZenecaShort fell 6.2% after reports of preliminary merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb, a combination that would create one of the world's largest pharmaceutical groups but whose industrial logic the market struggled to see. Our model has been short the stock for four weeks and the position is worth 8.69%: a case where the technical read got there before the news.

Also in London, ShellLong gave up 0.8% as it announced the sale to TotalEnergiesLong of its European onshore renewables business — around 500 megawatts of solar and wind operating or under construction across the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, plus a 3.5 gigawatt project pipeline. The deal captures two opposite strategies: the Anglo-Saxon majors retreating from renewables and the French group pressing forward. We are long both, and the Shell position is worth 5.24% over four weeks.

On the continent Frankfurt saw Siemens HealthineersLong up 4.6%, AdidasShort up 3.5%, SAPLong up 3.4%, AirbusLong up 3.4% and Mercedes-BenzLong up 2.6%. Among these the Airbus long is the most mature, fourteen weeks and 15.63%; on Adidas we are short and the stock rose on Monday.

Brazil's index was held back by the very chapter that helped elsewhere: the fall in crude pushed PetrobrasLong down more than two points. ValeShort gave up around a point as iron ore retreated, even on a day marked by a new buyback of up to 100 million ordinary shares and total shareholder remuneration of roughly 8.64 billion reais. Financials moved the other way, supported by easing inflation concerns: Itaú UnibancoLong gained more than 1% and BradescoLong around half a point.

On Brazil our model has been short Vale for fourteen weeks and the position is worth 8.41%; we are long both lenders and Petrobras. This week brings the central bank rate decision and a run of local earnings: BradescoLong on Wednesday, PetrobrasLong on Thursday.

A day like this reads best through the instruments people actually use. US communication services ETFs led with 2.86%, followed by industrials ETFs at 1.85% and consumer discretionary at 1.83%: the three sectors that cheaper fuel rewards directly. At the other end US energy ETFs lost 1.28%, the mirror image of the same headline.

Two baskets outside the day's rotation deserve a line of their own. The gold ETF remains among the most closely followed anywhere: our model has been short that basket for twenty-one weeks and the position is worth 10.08%, with the metal itself barely moving on Monday. The semiconductor ETF is the other: we have been short for four weeks with 2.71%, and Monday — with technology rising less than the broad market — did not contradict that read. On the US technology ETF we are short from two weeks ago and the position is down 1.53%: there the bounce went against us.

Thirty-eight instruments in our universe report over the next seven days, with the density concentrated between today and Thursday. For each one you'll find the link to the latest published note and our model's position.

Tuesday 4 · AMDLong · BookingLong · CaterpillarShort · McDonald'sShort · PfizerShort · SpotifyLong · AmgenLong · Arista NetworksLong · Archer-Daniels-MidlandShort · BayerLong · HSBCLong · Itaú UnibancoLong

Wednesday 5 · Eli LillyLong · AppLovinShort · DisneyShort · NuScale PowerShort · eBayShort · Western DigitalShort · InfineonShort · GlencoreShort · Banco BPMLong · BPER BancaLong · BradescoLong

Thursday 6 · Constellation EnergyShort · ConocoPhillipsLong · CloudflareLong · MP MaterialsShort · D-Wave QuantumShort · SiemensLong · RheinmetallLong · Deutsche TelekomLong · DiageoLong · GeneraliLong · MediobancaLong · Monte dei PaschiLong · PetrobrasLong

Friday 7 · AllianzLong · Munich ReLong

The four European baskets should be read together, because on Monday one of them did something different from the other three. DAXLong gained 1.52% and stopped **0.15%** from its record, FTSE MIBLong added 1.35% and sits **0.46%** below its peak, CAC 40Long 1.13% at **0.31%**. Three indices less than half a point from their best level ever, all three with our buy signal active for seventeen or eighteen weeks: the German one is worth 5.01%, the French 6.47%, the Italian 13.88%.

FTSE 100Long did the opposite: the only one down, off 0.17%, and above all almost eight percentage points from its own record — twenty times the distance of the other three. The buy signal is there too, from eighteen weeks ago, but it is worth 1.75%, an eighth of the Italian one over the same span. The reason for the day is the AstraZeneca collapse and weak oil majors; the reason for the eighteen months is structural, and it has to do with what that index is made of.

The comparison between the two big US baskets is the best photograph of this phase. SPYLong, the ETF on the S&P 500, closed up 1.42% and sits three tenths of a point from its all-time high: our buy has been active for eighteen weeks and is worth 11.51%. QQQShort, the ETF on the Nasdaq 100, did better on the day — up 1.76% — but remains almost 7% below its own record, and there our signal is a sell from three weeks ago, down 2.32%.

The explanation is in the composition, and it shapes any trading strategy built on either basket. The technology basket carries half its weight in a single sector — the one that on Monday rose less than communication services and industrials — and almost no exposure to financials, worth 12.6% of the S&P and just 0.24% of the Nasdaq. As long as market strength comes from banks, industrials and consumer names, the first collects it and the second does not. IWMLong, the small-company basket, gained 1.72% and confirms it: when risk recedes, everything that is not pure technology rises.