Technical analysis: semiconductor stocks sink and CrowdStrike stock soars on the call to slow down AI, with oil back above 100 dollars

Over the weekend Anthropic's chief executive argued that AI companies should ease off the race towards ever more powerful models, and two other leading figures in the industry said they agreed. The market read it as a threat to the chip investment cycle, and according to market reports the semiconductor index lost almost 6%. On our data ARMShort closed down 9.74%, Marvell TechnologyLong down 7.32%, IntelShort down 5.59%, Micron TechnologyLong down 5.25%, Broadcom stock BroadcomShort down 4.77%, Advanced Micro DevicesShort down 4.40% and Nvidia stock NVIDIALong down 3.36%.

Cybersecurity was bought as the flip side of the same fear: Zscaler stock ZscalerLong up 16.52%, CrowdStrike stock CrowdStrikeLong up 13.85%, Palo Alto NetworksShort up 13.09%, FortinetLong up 9.04%. Software held up, with ServiceNowLong up 7.41% and Microsoft stock MicrosoftLong up 1.97%. AI cloud paid a more concrete bill: OpenAI postponed its listing plans, and OracleLong, which carries a 300 billion dollar contract with it, fell 3.65% alongside CoreWeaveLong, down 6.75%, and NebiusLong, down 5.50%.

The session's second driver came from the Gulf. According to market reports Saudi Arabia shut the East-West pipeline after attacks launched from Iraq, Brent gained 3.6% and US crude broke above one hundred dollars, a four-month high. The US ten-year yield climbed above 5%, its highest since 2023, and gold lost 1.5% as the dollar firmed.

Oil producers did not follow crude: Exxon stock Exxon MobilLong fell 0.55%, ChevronLong 0.88%, ConocoPhillipsLong 0.50%, and the US energy ETF XLELong 0.94%. What collapsed instead was the chain that feeds power to data centres: GE VernovaShort down 8.62%, EatonShort down 7.57%, Constellation EnergyLong down 7.09%, with the US utilities ETF XLUShort down 1.34%.

According to market reports Milan closed down 1.68%, Europe's weakest exchange. On our data the heaviest losses came from technology and the power chain: PrysmianShort down 7.07%, STMicroelectronics stock STMicroelectronicsShort down 6.50%. Rising oil did nothing for TenarisLong, down 3.98%, or SaipemShort, down 3.62%, while EniLong closed flat. Utilities fell as a block: EnelShort down 2.40%, TernaShort down 2.48%, ItalgasShort down 2.46%. Stellantis MilanoShort lost 2.78%, LeonardoShort 1.46% and FerrariLong 1.14%. The only real gainer was Davide Campari-MilanoLong, up 5.49% after an upgrade from Morgan Stanley and a positive note from UBS.

For the banks the news came from the market regulator. At Consob's request MPS recalculated the exchange ratios of its offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, stripping out the effect of Intesa Sanpaolo's bid: measured at 5 June, both offers stand at a discount, 8.1% in the case of Banco BPM; at 11 September prices they carry a premium of 3.4% on Banco BPM and 12.8% on Banca Generali. On our data MediobancaLong lost 3.22%, Monte dei PaschiLong 2.91%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock Intesa SanpaoloLong 1.77% and Banco BPMShort 0.92%. For UniCreditLong, down 0.82%, the first meeting with the German government over Commerzbank was described as constructive: Berlin wants the bank to stay listed in Frankfurt, with jobs and the brand protected.

Friday's bounce in data-centre hardware was handed back in a single session: Super Micro ComputerLong down 8.38%, Bloom EnergyLong down 6.78%, Arista NetworksLong down 5.90%, Dell stock Dell TechnologiesLong down 5.82% and HPLong down 4.11%. With no specific news in our sources, the banks gave ground too: Bank of AmericaLong down 5.14% on almost twice its normal volume, Goldman SachsShort down 3.96%, JPMorgan ChaseLong down 1.71%.

The names with a story of their own went the other way: Coinbase stock Coinbase GlobalLong rose 9.24% after a Compass Point upgrade ahead of the Senate vote on the crypto market bill, StrategyLong 4.56%, RobloxLong 12.73% after its developer conference and a higher Wedbush target, NetflixLong 3.77% on Evercore ISI, and Palantir TechnologiesLong 3.64% on analyst upgrades and the partnerships unveiled at its conference.

In Frankfurt the chip rout showed up in Infineon TechnologiesShort, down 7.72%, and the power-chain sell-off in Siemens EnergyShort, down 8.04%. Software did the opposite: SAPLong rose 5.08%, the best name in the DAX, and BayerLong 2.41%. In Paris CapgeminiLong gained 6.61% and Dassault SystemesShort 4.99%, while Schneider ElectricLong lost 6.54% and LegrandLong 6.70%, both tied to data centres.

London was the continent's exception, kept afloat by pharma: GSKShort up 4.74% on positive trial data for a lung cancer drug, AstraZenecaShort up 3.81% despite a late-stage failure in breast cancer. In Paris SanofiLong added 2.96%.

On Monday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort closed down 1.53%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort down 0.73%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFLong down 0.43%, while the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFLong gained 0.40%. Measured from their all-time highs, Frankfurt sits 4.32% below, Milan 4.53%, Paris 7.15% and London 8.69%.

Milan has been a sell since the week that closed on 4 September, and Monday's close took it below the signal's first target: the typical price of the week just opened sits 2.66% below the exit level. Paris has been a sell since 24 August, with its typical price 2.48% below. London remains a buy since April, with its cushion down to 0.60%. Frankfurt, a buy since April, carries a sell forming on the new weekly candle, with the typical price 2.63% below the fresh level.

SOXX — the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF — lost 5.63%, the widest move among our baskets. XLK — the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF — closed down 1.81%, dragged by chips and propped up by Microsoft. XLV — the US health care ETF — gained 1.45%, second only to communication services among the sectors.

GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the world's most traded gold ETF — lost 1.49% on a firm dollar and rising yields. XLE — the US energy ETF — closed down 0.94% on a day crude was rising. VT — the Vanguard Total World Stock, Vanguard's global equity ETF — slipped 0.76%.

This week's cohort was born at the close on Friday 11 September: 15 new buy signals, 10 of them tradable. From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes — names moving above or below their entry level, names switching side on the daily chart, names reporting results, names leaving the cohort.

Yesterday brought four changes. The daily signal turned to a sell on three names caught in the chip sell-off, NokiaLong, MicronLong and Taiwan SemiconductorLong, while RobloxLong closed 12.73% above entry. MetaLong and GameStopLong are above entry too; none of the fifteen reports in the next seven days.

Three companies in our universe report over the next seven days, all around tomorrow evening's Federal Reserve decision.

Wednesday 16 September

MFE-MediaForEurope Short

Thursday 17 September

Carnival Short

FedEx Long

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, closed Monday down 0.45%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, down 0.80%. Applying each basket's sector weights to the sector moves, SPY should have lost 0.46% and lost exactly that; QQQ should have lost 0.48% and gave up 32 cents more, the ones that belong to chips, which weigh more in the Nasdaq 100 than in the sector.

On the weekly chart both remain buys, but the cushions have narrowed. SPY is in the twenty-third week of a signal with all three profit-taking windows reached, and Monday's low dipped 9 cents below the Reversal Point before closing above it: the week's typical price sits 0.36% above the level, against 1.04% on Friday. QQQ is in its fifth week, still below entry, with its typical price 1.04% above the level and the price now below its congestion zone.