Technical analysis: Nvidia stock and cybersecurity software carry Wall Street while European stocks slide

The weekly analysis that closed on Friday opened 17 new buy signals. We discarded five on insufficient setup quality, leaving 12 tradable names. Yesterday 5 of the 12 sat above their entry level, and the day's surprise is which one climbed back over the line: Halliburton, the very name we had flagged as the most fragile of the group.

The centre of gravity sat outside the session itself: Nvidia stock digested on Thursday the results published on Wednesday after the close, rising 8.74%. The numbers explain it: $96.2 billion of revenue, earnings per share of $2.22, data-centre revenue more than doubled year on year and current-quarter guidance up to $110.6 billion, comfortably above consensus. Management added that the next-generation platform is already in full production at the large cloud operators.

The sharpest percentage return, though, came from software. Salesforce stock jumped 22.58% on a quarter above estimates and an artificial-intelligence partnership. In cybersecurity Palo Alto Networks gained 12.83%, Zscaler 9.98% and Fortinet 9.67%; Okta, which we do not cover, rose 22% on revenue of $805 million. The common thread, repeated by the sector's chief executives, is that artificial intelligence generates both more attacks and more spending to fend them off. Following behind, ServiceNow added 10.04%, Cloudflare 8.19%, Zoom Communications 6.86%, Datadog 6.70%, Autodesk 6.21% and Adobe 5.73%.

The counter-story landed after the bell. Marvell Technology posted record revenue of $2.74 billion, up 37% year on year, and next-quarter guidance of $3.15 billion, both ahead of estimates: the stock lost roughly 3% in evening trading after already shedding 1.49% during the day. Following a 187% run since January, consensus had climbed so high that even a beat-and-raise was not enough.

Outside software the money gathered around two themes. On the crypto side Strategy gained 11.54% and Coinbase Global 4.92%; on artificial intelligence applied to markets, what people now call ai trading, Palantir Technologies added 4.75%, IREN 2.40% and Nebius 2.13%. Among semiconductor stocks, by contrast, the move was far more sober than Nvidia's day would suggest: Micron Technology shed 0.32% and Sandisk 0.96%.

Chinese names split the session: Alibaba lost 2.94% on fears of fresh restrictions on artificial-intelligence chips, while Baidu rose 3.95%, seen as the group's purest exposure to the theme. Among the oil majors Exxon Mobil gave up 1.11% with crude still under pressure, and NIKE eased 0.39%.

Milan closed down 1.14%, and the weight came from the banks. UniCredit stock lost 3.17%, the widest move on the index, Banco BPM 2.12%, Monte dei Paschi 1.98%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock 1.75% and Generali 0.39%. Outside the sector A2A shed 2.04% and Terna 2.10%.

Three different stories moved against the tide. STMicroelectronics stock gained 2.92%, carried by the wave running through American semiconductor stocks; Stellantis stock 2.58%; Leonardo stock 1.72% and Prysmian 1.60%.

Paris was the weakest market in Europe, down 1.71%, pressured by concerns over the sustainability of French public debt and by political uncertainty. London gave up 0.75%. Only Frankfurt held, up 0.19%, and the credit belongs almost entirely to one name: SAP stock rebounded 5.48% on the American software wave, a single day after an investment bank cut SAP stocks to neutral over slow progress on artificial intelligence and a weaker cloud backlog. The market bought the theme and ignored the analyst.

Behind SAP the German market moved little and in no particular order: Volkswagen AG Pref up 3.56%, adidas up 1.59% and Deutsche Boerse up 0.66%; on the other side Siemens down 0.40%, Deutsche Bank down 0.55%, Allianz down 1.44% and E.ON down 1.51%. In Paris EssilorLuxottica lost 1.07%; in London Lloyds Banking fell 2.15%, the weakest of the ten most-followed European names.

Across more than 430 instruments we follow, 12 carry a weekly signal turned to sell on this week's bar: Broadcom, Boeing, BNP Paribas, AXA, VINCI, First Solar, GE Aerospace, GE Vernova, Thales, Kering, Orange and the French index.

Twenty-four hours ago there were 13, and the names that swapped places tell more than the count. Three left — Datadog, Eaton and Mercedes-Benz — and two arrived, AXA and GE Aerospace. GE Aerospace is worth a pause: on Wednesday we reported it had left the list, because price had climbed back above its own inversion level. Yesterday it fell 3.29% and returned, with the level having moved higher in the meantime.

The four European baskets we track closed apart — Frankfurt up 0.19%, London down 0.75%, Milan down 1.14%, Paris down 1.71% — but the difference that matters is not the session: it is where price sits relative to the level that decides the trade.

The German basket is in the twentieth week of a buy signal up 6.39%, sits 2.45% above its own weekly Inversion Point and stands a 0.73% rise from its record: the closest of all seven indices we follow. The Italian basket is in its twenty-first week with 12.66% accumulated, the best return of the four, yet after yesterday price sits a bare 0.22% above its inversion level. The British one is in its twenty-first week with 1.87%, sits 1.73% above its level and has its record a distant 8.50% away. On Paris the signal has already turned to sell on the bar now forming, and the level stands 3.51% above price.

Across twenty sectors on two continents the day's full range was almost five points, the widest in weeks, and at the two extremes sit two instruments telling the same story from opposite sides. XLK, the US technology ETF — the Technology Select Sector SPDR — gained 3.16%, first on the list by more than three points over the runner-up; EXV1, the iShares European banks ETF, lost 1.67%, last of the twenty. In between SOXX, the iShares semiconductor ETF, added 1.95%: far less than Nvidia's day would lead you to expect.

Among the baskets the public follows most closely, GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — closed up 0.30%, essentially flat, but remains 13.8% ahead over the month and just below all-time highs; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained 1.37% and MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, 1.88%. What rules out a flight, though, sits outside these six: the American defensive sectors, health care and consumer staples, finished last. When a market truly runs for the exit, defensives rise.

Next week's calendar is short but concentrated, and it lands squarely on the sector that ran hardest yesterday. Here is who reports over the next seven days among the names we follow, with our model's position beside each.

Tuesday 1 September

Credo Technology Long

NIO Short

Palo Alto Networks Long

Wednesday 2 September

Broadcom Long

Thursday 3 September

Zscaler Long

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF (S&P 500), closed up 0.66%; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust), up 1.37%, exactly double. Weighting explains the gap: the Nasdaq basket carries 50.54% in technology against 32.91% for the other, and a mere 0.24% in financials against 12.59%. On a day when a single sector rose, that composition is worth everything.

On both, our daily buy signal fired yesterday, and on both the short-term inversion level crossed below price: from ceiling to floor in one session. From there the two part company. To return to its own record the first needs a 1.07% rise, the second 3.82%. The first is in the twenty-first week of a signal up 13.49%, with all three profit-taking windows already banked and its stop 11.12% above the entry price. The second is in the third week of a signal still 1.36% below entry, with every window ahead and its stop 5.16% under the entry.