Technical analysis: the day after the Fed, semiconductor stocks lead the rebound with Arm, Intel and AMD
On Thursday 17 September markets absorbed the first US rate hike since 2023. Press reports say the recovery came as oil and Treasury yields fell together, with the ten-year yield back below 5%, and equity volatility dropped almost 13% in a single session. All seven of the main indices we follow closed higher, and Milan posted its second straight gain.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that made the session, with our model's position on each. On US stocks, semiconductor stocks led the way: Arm stock, Intel stock and AMD stock were among the best of the day, with Nvidia stocks, Amazon stock and Microsoft stocks behind them, while Salesforce and Boeing went the other way. In Europe Rolls-Royce, Siemens Energy and Volkswagen led a broad advance, and on the Milan market Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia topped the list with the banks close behind. Our trading strategy on each name is set out below.
The rebound was sharpest in the stocks sold hardest over recent weeks, and that is where our model held up: the shorts on Rocket Lab, D-Wave and Arm are still well in profit after the session. Every reading comes from a systematic model, that is ai trading applied to about 450 instruments, and they remain references: the choice always belongs to whoever trades.
Wall Street recovers as yields and oil fall together, and the S&P 500 withdraws its weekly reversal
A day after the Federal Reserve decision, US indices won back most of the drop. On our data S&P 500Long, the ETF on the S&P 500, gained 1.13%, Invesco QQQ TrustLong on the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.73% and Russell 2000 ETFShort on small caps 0.53%. Press reports put weekly jobless claims at 196,000, below expectations: a solid labour market, which is also the reason the central bank raised rates in the first place.
The rebound ran on almost a single engine. US technology, US technology ETFLong, gained 2.25%, followed by consumer discretionary at 1.10%; communication services, US communication services ETFLong, lost 0.58% and financials, US financials ETFLong, were flat. Equity volatility fell 12.8% and bond volatility 5.6%.
Semiconductor stocks on top: Arm, Intel, AMD and Micron drive the rebound, with Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft
Semiconductors were the strongest group of the session: Arm stockShort rose 8.57%, Intel stockShort 7.67%, AMD stockShort 6.36%, Micron stockLong 5.50% and Super MicroLong 9.50%. Among the megacaps Nvidia stockLong gained 2.54%, Broadcom stockShort 2.29%, Amazon stockShort 2.13%, Microsoft stockLong 1.52%, Meta stockLong 1.34% and Alphabet stockShort 1.30%. OracleLong added 5.19% and DellLong 4.46%.
Not everything in the sector joined in. CoreWeaveLong fell 4.16%, Salesforce stockLong 3.07% and NetflixLong 1.44%, on a day when technology as a whole was up 2.25%.
Quantum computing, solar, space and crypto: FuelCell, IonQ, D-Wave, First Solar and Coinbase rebound, Boeing slips
The session rewarded above all the stocks sold hardest in recent weeks. FuelCell EnergyShort rose 14.26%, IonQ stockLong 9.50%, D-WaveShort 8.73%, Rocket Lab stockShort 6.47%, First Solar stockShort 5.28% and Archer AviationShort 3.45%.
In crypto, after the blow on decision day, Coinbase stockLong recovered 5.75%, RobinhoodLong 5.16% and StrategyLong 4.81%; press reports say bitcoin held the 76,000 dollar area. Boeing stockShort went the other way, down 2.46%.
Milan market: Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia on top, Stellantis, A2A and Fincantieri higher, banks up again
Press reports put the Milan index up 0.8%, with Poste and Telecom Italia among the best. On our data Poste ItalianeShort gained 3.40%, Telecom ItaliaLong 2.98%, FincantieriLong 2.40% and Stellantis stockShort 2.26%. Utilities rose with HeraShort up 1.98%, Enel stockShort 1.71% and A2ALong 1.28%; fashion did well with Brunello CucinelliShort up 1.63% and MonclerShort 0.55%.
Banks moved up together: MediobancaLong 1.40%, Monte dei PaschiLong 1.34%, Banca MediolanumLong 1.17%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockLong 1.13%, BPERLong 1.01%, UniCredit stockLong 0.92% and GeneraliLong 0.68%. CampariLong lost 1.56% and Eni stockLong 0.60%.
Europe: Siemens Energy, Volkswagen and Rolls-Royce lead the rise, AstraZeneca and HSBC higher, EssilorLuxottica and Deutsche Telekom lower
Every major European market closed higher. On our data Siemens EnergyShort gained 3.41%, Volkswagen stockLong 2.74%, Rolls-Royce stockLong 2.72%, AstraZeneca stockShort 2.41% and SiemensShort 2.34%. Banks rose too, with HSBCLong up 1.96% and Deutsche Bank stockLong 1.83%, as did German carmakers, Mercedes-BenzLong up 1.83% and BMWLong 1.74%, and GlencoreLong 1.63%.
On the downside EssilorLuxotticaShort lost 2.52%, Deutsche TelekomLong 1.87%, AdidasShort 1.56%, InfineonShort 1.09% and ThalesShort 1.08%. SAP stockLong added 0.77% and AllianzLong 0.42%.
European indices: four baskets higher, Milan turns to a daily buy, Frankfurt decides today
On Thursday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort gained 0.79%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFLong 0.67%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort 0.66% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFLong 0.46%. A second day of gains for all four, with Milan still in front.
Beneath the rise the structures remain split. Milan has been a sell since the week ended 4 September, with the typical price of the forming week 2.94% below its level; on Thursday, though, its daily signal turned to a buy for the first time since mid-August. Paris has been a sell since 24 August, 2.76% below its level. London remains a buy since April, 0.58% above. Frankfurt, a buy since April, carries a sell reversal on the forming candle, with the typical price 0.41% below the level it started from, down from 0.99% on Wednesday.
The ETFs that moved the session: the semiconductor ETF, the tech ETF, the gold ETF, the energy ETF and the European banks and resources ETFs
SOXX — iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF — gained 3.39%, and XLK — the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US tech ETF — 2.25%, first among the eleven sectors. GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — recovered 1.69%. XLE — the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the energy ETF — steadied at 0.70% after Wednesday's drop.
In Europe EXV6 — iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources, the European basic resources ETF — topped the grid at 2.06%, and EXV1 — iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks, the European banks ETF — rose 1.26%.
The new buy signals: Micron, Archer Daniels and Bloom Energy back above entry
The weekly cohort was born at Friday 11 September's close: 15 new buy signals, 10 tradable. From Tuesday to Friday this card publishes only what changes — who crosses above or below their entry level, who flips side on the daily signal, who reports earnings, who leaves the cohort.
Yesterday brought seven changes. Micron stockLong, Archer Daniels MidlandLong and Bloom EnergyLong moved back above their entry levels. Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor stockLong and Nokia stockLong turned their daily signal to a buy, which now stays a sell only on LegrandLong. The other way, Tenaris stockLong and SabespLong slipped just below entry. None of the fifteen reports earnings in the next seven days.
This week's earnings: Costco on Thursday, Uranium Energy on Friday
Two companies in our universe report between now and next Friday. On Thursday FedEx stockLong released its first fiscal-quarter results with earnings above expectations and closed up 1.38%; Carnival's date has moved to 29 September.
Thursday 24 September
Costco Wholesale Short
Friday 25 September
Uranium Energy Long
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: SPY withdraws its weekly reversal, QQQ turns to a buy on the daily too
S&P 500Long, the ETF on the S&P 500, closed Thursday up 1.13%; Invesco QQQ TrustLong, the ETF on the Nasdaq 100, up 1.73%. Applying each basket's sector weights to the day's sector moves, SPY should have gained 0.93% and QQQ 1.27%: both did better, and technology accounts for 74 basis points of the first and 114 of the second.
On the weekly the two baskets are back on the same side. On SPY the typical price of the forming week rose 0.34% above the level of the long trade opened on 6 April, and Wednesday's sell reversal has been withdrawn; SPY is in its twenty-third week, with every profit-taking window reached. QQQ has its typical price 1.73% above its own level, and on Thursday it turned its daily signal to a buy as well, by just 0.06%.
The bigger picture: the day after the Federal Reserve
The market did in one session what usually takes a week: it absorbed the first monetary tightening since 2023 as soon as yields and oil fell together. The recovery was broad across indices, all seven higher, and narrow across sectors, with technology carrying almost all the weight on Wall Street. The most concrete result for our model is the withdrawal of the S&P 500's sell reversal, which removes the week's biggest threat. On the SPY ETF the threat is gone for now. Two things remain to watch: tonight's close, which settles the reversals still forming on US financials and Frankfurt, and participation in the rally, which recovered 2.1% on Thursday but has been falling for five weeks.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading — stops, break-even stops, trailing, and the declaration of stops that have been taken out — or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system — The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).