Technical analysis: Charles Schwab and Royal Caribbean stock slide 6% as AI agents hit consumer-inertia names, while semiconductor stocks hold up
Tuesday 22 September was a session that stood still on the surface and moved house underneath: on our data the S&P 500 ETF closed flat and the Nasdaq 100 ETF added 0.81%, yet US financials lost 2% while materials gained 1.65%. The Milan market shed 0.45%, weighed down by banks and insurers, and the spread between Italian and German ten-year yields widened by 2.86% — the largest macro move of the day.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that made the session, with our model's position on each. On Wall Street Charles Schwab stock fell 6.11% and Royal Caribbean stock 6.14%, two of the consumer-facing stocks hit hardest, while among semiconductor stocks Micron stock rose 5.00% and Newmont stock 3.42%. In Milan Poste Italiane closed at the bottom of the index at minus 3.97%, followed by FinecoBank and Telecom Italia, while STMicroelectronics gained 4.37%. Our trading strategy on each name is set out below.
It was a day our model collected heavily on the short side: short Royal Caribbean at 19.56%, short Charles Schwab at 4.66%, short Adobe at 5.54%, short Orange at 5.26%. Every reading comes from a systematic model, that is ai trading applied to about 450 instruments, and they remain references: the choice always belongs to whoever trades.
- Wall Street: habit-based businesses pay the bill
- Semiconductor stocks hold, software does not
- Hormuz deflates defence, gold rises
- Milan: the index pays for banks and insurers
- Europe: telecoms and defence under pressure
- European indices: four baskets, one direction
- The ETFs that moved the session
- This week's new signals
- This week's earnings
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
Charles Schwab stocks and Royal Caribbean stocks down 6%, US banks under pressure while the index stays flat
The fact of the session is not where the indices closed, it is who was sold. Charles SchwabShort lost 6.11%, a move worth six times its typical swing, and Royal CaribbeanShort 6.14%. Behind them the large banks: Wells FargoLong down 3.92%, JPMorgan ChaseLong down 3.42%, Bank of AmericaShort down 3.04%. The US financial sector closed at minus 1.97%, the worst of the day.
According to press reports, the thread linking these names is a thesis: personal AI agents erode businesses that live on customer inertia — the reluctance to switch provider, compare prices or look for alternatives. Banks, insurers and online travel are the trades that collect that inertia. On the other side cybersecurity held up, with CrowdStrikeLong up 0.28% and Palo Alto NetworksShort up 0.76%.
Semiconductor stocks still rising with Micron and Arm, while Adobe and Cisco stocks drop 4.5%
The second day of the tech rally split chipmakers from software. MicronLong gained 5.00% ahead of its 30 September results, ArmShort 3.19%, QualcommLong 2.08%, IntelShort 1.71% and AMD stockShort 1.34%. On the other side Adobe stockShort fell 4.52% and Cisco stockShort 4.50%, the two software stocks that broke with the rally: two of the three worst names in the whole basket on a rising day.
Among the megacaps, small moves in both directions: Nvidia stockLong up 0.66%, BroadcomShort up 0.52%, AppleLong up 0.23%, while MicrosoftLong shed 0.72%, AlphabetShort 1.07%, AmazonShort 1.34% and MetaLong 0.63%. On the crypto side MARA HoldingsLong added 2.64%, Riot PlatformsShort 3.10% and CleanSparkShort 2.57%. The best performers were GameStopLong at 5.58% and AmgenShort at 4.34%.
Lockheed Martin and RTX stocks fall with oil, while Newmont and Barrick stocks rise with gold
The day's second driver came from the Gulf. According to press reports an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz removed the geopolitical risk premium, with a double effect: the oil price lost 1.24% in its fifth consecutive down session, and defence names fell. Lockheed MartinShort dropped 2.44%, RTXShort 1.72% and BoeingShort 1.71%; in Europe BAE SystemsShort lost 2.78%.
On the same day materials were Wall Street's best sector at 1.65%, and the gold price closed up 0.39%. NewmontLong gained 3.42%, leading the sector, and BarrickLong 2.79%. The pairing deserves attention: a shrinking geopolitical premium usually removes support from gold, and yesterday the two moved together instead.
Milan lower: Poste, FinecoBank, Telecom Italia and Generali stocks down more than 3%, Generali stock at a one-month low, STMicroelectronics against the tide
Milan shed 0.45% with the damage concentrated in four names, all down more than 3%. Poste ItalianeShort closed at the bottom of the index at minus 3.97%, FinecoBankShort lost 3.69%, Telecom ItaliaLong 3.34% with the second tranche of the ongoing public offer, and Generali stockLong 3.30%. Behind them Banco BPMShort at minus 1.74%, UnipolLong at minus 1.60%, Banca MediolanumShort at minus 1.10% and BPERLong at minus 1.09%. The two large banks limited the damage: Intesa SanpaoloLong at minus 0.71%, UniCreditLong at minus 0.53%.
Against the tide, STMicroelectronicsShort rose 4.37% on the global chip rally, followed by PrysmianShort at 2.54%, CampariLong at 1.95%, LottomaticaLong at 1.64%, PirelliShort at 1.54% and NexiLong at 1.40%. Among the day's corporate stories, the press reports a buyback announced by the holding company of StellantisShort, which closed at minus 0.24%, and the agreement under which Saxo Bank takes full ownership of BG Saxo from the Generali group. AvioShort and LeonardoShort lost 1.60% and 1.40% in the wake of the European defence decline.
Mixed Europe: Infineon and Siemens Energy stocks up, Orange stock down 4%, telecoms the worst sector
In Europe the worst sector was telecoms at minus 2.15%, and the name that dragged it there is OrangeShort, down 4.13%. Continental banks lost 1.01%, with BarclaysShort at minus 1.23% and HSBCLong at minus 1.59%. Also lower Rolls-RoyceLong at minus 1.53% and BMWLong at minus 0.93%.
On the other side European technology gained 1.60%, with InfineonShort up 3.16% in the wake of US chips, Siemens EnergyShort up 1.89% and EssilorLuxotticaShort up 2.30%. Flat SiemensShort at 0.13% and Schneider ElectricShort unchanged; UnileverLong up 1.20%, BayerLong up 1.06%, L'OréalLong up 1.49% and RWELong up 0.84%. VolkswagenLong recovered 0.32%.
European indices still below their weekly sell signal, with Milan inside its congestion zone
On Tuesday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 0.45% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.29%, while the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort gained 0.13%. On the German basket DAX ETFShort our data provider delivered a series that does not match ours and our data guard refused to write it: for that instrument we use the weekly reading only, and we are not publishing a daily change.
The map has not changed: all four baskets remain below their own weekly sell signal. Milan is the tightest and most interesting case — the typical price of the week in formation sits 1.76% below the level that judges it, and price has ended up exactly inside its congestion zone, 0.56% from the ceiling and 1.52% from the floor. Paris, selling since 24 August, is the only one with the short in profit; Frankfurt and London turned to sell only last week.
The ETFs that moved the session: the materials ETF, the US banks ETF, the semiconductor ETF, the gold ETF, the European telecoms ETF and the European technology ETF
XLB — the Materials Select Sector SPDR, the US materials ETF — was the best sector of the session at 1.65%, even though it remains the furthest behind on the month. At the other end XLF — the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US banks ETF — lost 1.97%, its second heavy session in three days, taking the month to minus 4.66%. XLP — the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the defensive consumer ETF — gained 0.99%: a defensive combination that does not usually accompany a technology rally.
Among the sector baskets, SOXX — the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF that tracks the main semiconductor stocks — rose 2.40%, and GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — 0.42%. In Europe EXV2 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications, the European telecoms ETF — lost 2.15%, the worst on the continent, while EXV3 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology, the European technology ETF — gained 1.60%.
This week's new buy signals: Virgin Galactic, Inwit, MARA Holdings, Tesco and Apple, all still above entry
From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes. On day two the 5 new buy signals born on Friday 18 September are all still above their own entry: Virgin GalacticLong at 8.14%, MARA HoldingsLong at 2.95%, InwitLong at 2.84%, TescoLong at 1.22% and AppleLong at 1.08%. None changed side on the daily, none reports earnings this week, none has left the cohort.
The caveat always applies: past data do not guarantee future results.
This week's earnings: Costco tomorrow, Uranium Energy on Friday, Carnival next Tuesday
Three companies in our universe report between now and next Tuesday. Just beyond the window come MicronLong on 30 September and AccentureLong on 1 October.
Thursday 24 September
Costco Wholesale Short
Friday 25 September
Uranium Energy Short
Tuesday 29 September
Carnival Short
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ: the S&P 500 flat because its engines cancel out, the Nasdaq 100 at a record close
SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, closed flat at minus 0.02%, 0.77% below its all-time high; QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, added 0.81% and marked the highest close in its history. Applying each basket's sector weights to the sector moves, SPY should have done minus 0.01% and QQQ plus 0.33%: the first matched the arithmetic to the cent, the second beat it by half a point thanks to chipmakers.
The difference is entirely composition. In the Nasdaq 100 financials weigh 0.24%, in the S&P 500 12.59%: the same minus 2% in banking takes half a cent off the first and a quarter of a point off the second, which technology exactly offset. On levels, QQQ has four references packed within twelve hundredths of a percent above price — all-time high, weekly upper band and first target window — and that window expires at Friday's close. SPY has only the record ahead of it, at 0.77%, with all three windows already taken in its twenty-fourth week.
The big picture: a market rotating without leaving
Tuesday's session comes down to one sentence: money changed house without leaving the neighbourhood. In the United States the broad index stood still because its two main engines cancelled each other out, and beneath that flat surface two percentage points moved between those selling financials and those buying materials and defensive goods. In Europe the same movement produced a worse result, because on these baskets — and on the Italian one most of all — there is no sector large enough to absorb what leaves the banks. What I would watch over the next two or three sessions is whether banks, insurers and travel recover: if they do not, Tuesday was not a bad day but the start of a repricing.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading — stops, break-even stops, trailing, and the declaration of stops that have been taken out — or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system — The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).