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The 5-year yield hits 5%: the S&P 500 ETF loses 0.72%, the Nasdaq ETF 0.84%, the gold ETF 1.80% and the utilities ETF 1.92%, while only the energy ETF rises, up 0.96%. Airbnb and Expedia sink 7%, CrowdStrike gains 4.97%, Milan down 0.24% with Eni up 2.82%.

· 22 min read
ETF technical analysis: the gold ETF and the utilities ETF fall as the 5-year yield hits 5%, the energy ETF rises and Airbnb stock sinks
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Economic Observatory · The session

ETF technical analysis: the gold ETF and the utilities ETF fall as the 5-year yield hits 5%, the energy ETF rises and Airbnb stock sinks

24 September 2026 AiTrading67 · Trade Desk Observatory Markets

On Wednesday 23 September stocks fell for a specific reason: the US 5-year yield touched 5% for the first time since 2007 and the 10-year climbed to its highest level since July of that year. ETFs tell the story better than any index. On our data the S&P 500 ETF SPY lost 0.72%, the Nasdaq ETF QQQ 0.84%, the gold ETF GLD 1.80% and the utilities ETF XLU 1.92%, while the energy ETF XLE was the only US sector higher at 0.96%. The Milan market did better than Paris and Frankfurt at minus 0.24%, even as the spread between Italian and German ten-year yields widened by 6.32% in a single session.

In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that decided the day, with our model's position on each. On Wall Street Airbnb stock lost 7.56% and Expedia stock 7.72%, while CrowdStrike stock rose 4.97% and, among semiconductor stocks, Micron stock slipped 2.22% a week before its results. In Milan Eni gained 2.82% and Ferrari 1.14%, while Generali and Unipol paid for higher rates with falls of 2.30% and 2.81%. Our trading strategy on each name is set out below.

It was a day our model collected mostly on the short side: short McDonald's at 22.84%, short PG&E at 13.22%, short Airbnb at 12.11%, short Booking at 10.36%. Every reading comes from a systematic model, that is ai trading applied to about 450 instruments, and they remain references: the choice always belongs to whoever trades.

The news that moved our instruments
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INSTRUMENTS
Where money takes shelter

ETF technical analysis: the gold ETF, the utilities ETF, the energy ETF, the semiconductor ETF and Vanguard ETFs on a rates day

An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks an index, a sector or a commodity: it trades like a stock, and a single instrument gives exposure to an entire basket. That is why, on a day decided by yields, ETFs show where money moved more clearly than individual stocks do.

XLU — the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF — lost 1.92%, the worst sector of the session, and XLRE — the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, the US real estate ETF — 1.55%: these are the two baskets that suffer most when yields rise. At the other end XLE — the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF — gained 0.96%, the only US sector higher, and in Europe EXH1 — the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas, the European oil and gas ETF — 1.24%.

Among the most followed baskets, GLD — SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world — fell 1.80% under the weight of higher yields and a firmer dollar. SOXX — the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF — slipped 1.23%, VT — the Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF — 1.18%, and VTI — the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard ETF on the whole US market — 0.80%. For our global ETF technical analysis, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

How I read itOur model was already on the right side of the rates day: short the utilities ETF at 8.85% and the real estate ETF at 4.76%, long the energy ETF at 8.13% and the European oil and gas ETF at 4.42%. On world equities we are long since April at 9.90%; on the Vanguard ETF for the US market the signal has been a sell since 14 September. On the gold ETF the confirmed signal is still a buy and this week's candle is turning it to sell; on the semiconductor ETF the opposite is happening. Both reversals are still forming, and only become real at Friday's close.
US utilities ETF short (G / P) · US real estate ETF short (G / P) · US energy ETF long (G / P) · European oil and gas ETF long (G / P) · gold ETF long (G / P) · semiconductor ETF short (G / P) · Vanguard Total World Stock ETF long (G / P) · VTI US Total Market short (G / P) *
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WALL STREET
The price of money runs the session

Home Depot, PG&E and Oracle stocks fall as the 5-year Treasury hits 5%, small caps down 1.84%

The engine of the day was the bond market. According to press reports the 5-year Treasury touched 5% for the first time since 2007, the 10-year rose to around 5.11% on solid macro data, a weak auction and fears that energy could reignite inflation, and 30-year mortgage rates went back above 7%. When money gets expensive this quickly, the first to pay are the stocks that live on debt or trade like bonds: US utilities lost 1.92% and real estate 1.55%, the two worst sectors of the session.

The names follow the same logic. Home Depot stockShort, a business tied to the housing market, fell 2.83%; PG&EShort 3.65%; Oracle stockLong 3.11%. The small-cap ETF Russell 2000 ETFShort shed 1.84%, more than twice the broad index: these are the companies that refinance their debt first. Banks did not recover from Tuesday: Goldman SachsShort down 1.38%, Wells FargoLong down 1.50%, JPMorgan ChaseLong down 0.73% despite its 20 billion partnership with the Qatar sovereign fund.

How I read itOur model was already on the right side of this day: short PG&E since 31 August at 13.22%, short Goldman Sachs at 9.84%, short Home Depot at 7.58% and short the small-cap ETF at 4.76%. We are long Oracle and the day went against us. On JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo the confirmed signal is still a buy, but this week's candle is turning it to sell: a reversal still forming, which only becomes real at Friday's close. For risk management the point is a single one: as long as medium-term yields stay here, position size on rate-sensitive stocks has to be set for a market that has just repriced time itself.
Home Depot short (G / P) · PG&E short (G / P) · Oracle long (G / P) · Russell 2000 ETF short (G / P) · Goldman Sachs short (G / P) · Wells Fargo long (G / P) · JPMorgan Chase long (G / P) *
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CONSUMER
Meta's agent reaches travel

Airbnb stocks, Expedia stocks and Booking down as much as 7.7%, Alphabet and McDonald's stock under pressure

The session's second current was the same as Tuesday's, only wider. According to press reports the market keeps selling businesses that live on customer habit, on the thesis that Meta's AI assistant, now at the top of the US App Store, could make their services redundant. On Tuesday it was banks; on Wednesday it was online travel. Expedia stockShort fell 7.72%, Airbnb stockShort 7.56% and Booking stockShort 5.07%.

In the same wake Alphabet stockShort lost 3.80%, Trade DeskShort 3.79% and AppLovinShort 4.10%, while Royal CaribbeanShort gave up another 1.95% after Tuesday's 6% drop. McDonald's stockShort fell 4.81%, a move 2.4 times its typical swing, with no news in the press. MetaLong gained 1.02%.

How I read itThis is the card where our model collects the most, because on nearly all these names we were short before the headline: McDonald's since 16 March at 22.84%, Royal Caribbean at 21.13%, Trade Desk at 40.41%, AppLovin at 33.92%, Airbnb at 12.11%, Booking at 10.36%, Expedia at 7.76% and Alphabet at 6.07%. On Meta we are long at 14.82%. In price action trading terms the detail that matters is volume: on Airbnb and Expedia trading ran above three times normal, with more than 93% classed as selling. That is money leaving, not just price falling.
Expedia short (G / P) · Airbnb short (G / P) · Booking short (G / P) · Alphabet short (G / P) · Trade Desk short (G / P) · AppLovin short (G / P) · Royal Caribbean short (G / P) · McDonald's short (G / P) · Meta Platforms long (G / P) *
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TECHNOLOGY
Cybersecurity becomes the shelter

CrowdStrike and Palo Alto stocks up 5% as semiconductor stocks split, with Micron and Sandisk lower

Inside technology, money chose a precise shelter. CrowdStrikeLong gained 4.97%, Palo Alto NetworksShort 5.00%, ZscalerLong 2.03%; Okta, which we do not follow, moved with them. Palantir stockLong rose 3.68% on a string of partnerships announced during the day, with Nvidia on sovereign AI and with Fujitsu in Japan. ServiceNowLong added 2.76% and Microsoft stockLong 0.52% on the day Stifel upgraded it to Buy.

Chipmakers, by contrast, split. Micron stocksLong fell 2.22% a week before its 30 September results, SandiskLong 3.73%, while Western DigitalShort gained 1.96%. Among the megacaps, Nvidia stockLong and AMD stockShort lost 1.47%, BroadcomShort 2.62%, IntelShort 1.02%, and ArmShort barely moved. IonQLong rose 4.42% after raising its 2026 revenue guidance to 450-460 million dollars.

How I read itIn cybersecurity our model is long where the move has lasted for months: CrowdStrike since 20 April at 134.30%, Zscaler at 41.83%, then ServiceNow at 12.73%, Palantir at 11.50% and Microsoft at 7.72%. On Micron we are long at 9.91%, and the earnings rule stays the same: enter with the smallest size. On Palo Alto our signal is short. On AMD, Arm and Intel this week's candle is turning the signal to buy, but that reversal is still forming. For swing trading the reading is that technology is not being sold as a block: it is being selected, and with yields at 5% the market pays for recurring revenue and margins already in sight.
CrowdStrike long (G / P) · Palo Alto Networks short (G / P) · Zscaler long (G / P) · Palantir Technologies long (G / P) · ServiceNow long (G / P) · Microsoft long (G / P) · Micron Technology long (G / P) · Sandisk long (G / P) · Western Digital short (G / P) · NVIDIA long (G / P) · Advanced Micro Devices short (G / P) · Broadcom short (G / P) · Intel short (G / P) · ARM short (G / P) · IonQ long (G / P) *
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ITALY
Energy and luxury hold the index up

Milan down 0.24%: Eni and Ferrari stocks higher, Generali, Unipol and the utilities pay for higher rates

Milan closed at minus 0.24%, better than Paris and Frankfurt, and the reason is the make-up of the day. At the top Eni stockLong, up 2.82%, leading the European oil sector; then DiaSorinLong up 2.55%, Brunello CucinelliShort up 1.75%, MonclerShort up 1.16%, Ferrari stockLong up 1.14% and LeonardoShort up 1.10%. Banks, the heart of the basket, barely moved: Monte dei PaschiLong up 0.37%, Banco BPMShort up 1.21%, MediobancaLong up 0.49%, UniCreditLong up 0.23% and Intesa SanpaoloLong down 0.37%, with bank consolidation still the most debated topic in the market.

The bill for higher rates was paid by the stocks that trade like bonds. UnipolLong lost 2.81% and Generali stockLong 2.30%; among utilities and grid operators, A2ALong down 1.63%, HeraShort down 1.32%, ItalgasShort down 1.31%, TernaShort down 1.16%, EnelShort down 1.03% and SnamShort down 0.57%. StellantisShort fell 1.77% with European autos and PrysmianShort 1.59%. FincantieriLong closed up 0.20%.

How I read itOn Italian utilities our model is short, and the day worked in our favour: Italgas at 15.08%, Snam at 9.17%, Enel at 7.05%, Terna at 5.64%, Hera at 3.70%. The shorts on Stellantis, at 29.70%, and Prysmian, at 5.78%, hold up. On the long side Mediobanca stands at 39.19%, Monte dei Paschi at 29.83%, Ferrari at 18.95%, Intesa Sanpaolo at 18.56% and Eni at 4.70%. We are long Generali and Unipol and both gave ground yesterday, inside trades still up 20.45% and 11.45%. Intesa Sanpaolo is the only name where we keep an entry zone armed: price sits 2.51% below it and has been moving away for three sessions.
Eni long (G / P) · DiaSorin long (G / P) · Brunello Cucinelli short (G / P) · Moncler short (G / P) · Ferrari long (G / P) · Leonardo short (G / P) · Monte dei Paschi long (G / P) · Banco BPM short (G / P) · Mediobanca long (G / P) · UniCredit long (G / P) · Intesa Sanpaolo long (G / P) · UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI long (G / P) · Assicurazioni Generali long (G / P) · A2A long (G / P) · Hera short (G / P) · Italgas short (G / P) · Terna short (G / P) · Enel short (G / P) · Snam short (G / P) · Stellantis Milano short (G / P) · Prysmian short (G / P) · Fincantieri long (G / P) *
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EUROPE
German carmakers weigh on Europe

Allianz stock down 4%, Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW lower, SAP stock against the tide

In Europe the day was heaviest in Germany. AllianzLong lost 3.97%, one of the session's outsized moves, and carmakers fell as a block: Mercedes-BenzLong down 3.14%, VolkswagenLong down 3.08%, BMWLong down 2.85%. Also lower InfineonShort at minus 2.59%, OrangeShort at minus 2.33%, L'OréalLong at minus 2.31%, KeringShort at minus 2.03% and AstraZenecaShort at minus 1.91%.

Against the tide SAP stockLong rose 2.27% in a falling German basket, EssilorLuxotticaShort 3.77% and RheinmetallShort 3.39%. TotalEnergiesLong gained 1.88% on the day it announced its exit from US offshore wind, moving almost a billion dollars into American gas and LNG. In London London Stock ExchangeLong rose 1.72%, BAE SystemsShort 1.51%, Rolls-RoyceLong 1.44% and HSBCLong 0.34%.

How I read itOn French telecoms and luxury our model has been short since August, and the day worked in our favour: Kering at 10.58%, Orange at 7.47%. The shorts on Infineon, at 8.00%, and AstraZeneca hold up. On the long side SAP stands at 18.25%, HSBC at 13.01% and TotalEnergies at 4.90%. On Allianz, the German carmakers and London Stock Exchange this week's candle is turning the signal to sell: a reversal still forming, to be confirmed on Friday. We are short EssilorLuxottica since December at 46.85%, and yesterday's rally took something off a gain that remains wide.
Allianz long (G / P) · Mercedes-Benz long (G / P) · Volkswagen AG Pref long (G / P) · Bayerische Motoren Werke long (G / P) · Infineon Technologies short (G / P) · Orange short (G / P) · L'Oreal long (G / P) · Kering short (G / P) · AstraZeneca short (G / P) · SAP long (G / P) · EssilorLuxottica short (G / P) · Rheinmetall short (G / P) · TotalEnergies long (G / P) · London Stock Exchange long (G / P) · BAE Systems short (G / P) · Rolls-Royce long (G / P) · HSBC long (G / P) *
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INDICES
Four baskets inside congestion

European indices: all four below their weekly sell signal and inside their own congestion zone

On Wednesday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 0.24%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort 0.38%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort 0.64%, while the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort barely moved at minus 0.04%. All four remain below their own weekly sell signal: the typical price of the week in formation sits between 1.86% in Milan and 2.48% in Frankfurt below the level that judges it.

What the day has in common is something else: all four baskets closed inside their own congestion zone. Where they differ is the short term. Milan and Paris still have the daily signal on buy, with price above the daily Reversal Point; Frankfurt and London have it on sell. Paris, selling since 24 August, remains the only one of the four with a meaningful short gain, 3.15%; Milan is just above zero, while Frankfurt and London, which turned to sell last week, are still below.

How I read itFour baskets inside congestion mean one thing: in Europe our model proposes no entries in either direction until one of them leaves its band. The underlying direction is bearish on all four, but the movement is missing. If I had to pick the one likely to break first, I would watch Frankfurt: it has price furthest from its weekly judge and is the only one, together with London, whose short term is already aligned with the weekly.
FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) · CAC 40 ETF short (G / P) · DAX ETF short (G / P) · FTSE 100 ETF short (G / P) *
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OUR MODEL
Tesco slips below entry

This week's new buy signals: Tesco below entry, Virgin Galactic, Inwit, MARA Holdings and Apple still above

From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes, and today one thing did. TescoLong slipped below its entry price, now at minus 1.07% after yesterday's 2.26% fall. The other four new buy signals born on Friday 18 September stay above: Virgin GalacticLong at 1.63%, InwitLong at 1.15%, MARA HoldingsLong at 0.83% and Apple stocksLong at 0.26%. None changed side on the daily, none reports earnings this week, none has left the cohort.

The caveat always applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

How I read itThe rates day squeezed the whole cohort towards zero: Virgin Galactic, at 8% on Tuesday, lost 6.02% in one session, and Tesco crossed the line. It is what you expect from brand-new signals on a selling day: none has built any distance yet, and a market drop takes them back to the starting point. On the weekly all five are still buys; Friday's close will say whether the cohort held.
Tesco long (G / P) · Virgin Galactic long (G / P) · INWIT long (G / P) · MARA long (G / P) · Apple long (G / P) *
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CALENDAR
Earnings through next Thursday

This week's earnings: Costco tonight, then Carnival, Micron, Accenture and Nike

Eight companies in our universe report between now and next Thursday. The name that matters most for markets is MicronLong, on 30 September: according to press reports its guidance points to record revenue close to 50 billion, and it is the event that will set the tone for semiconductor stocks.

Thursday 24 September

Costco Wholesale Short

Monday 28 September

Gafisa Short

Tuesday 29 September

Uranium Energy Short

Carnival Short

Wednesday 30 September

Micron Technology Long

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

Tilray Brands Short

How I read itOn Costco our model has been short since 26 May at 5.40% and reaches tonight's results with a gain to protect; on Carnival we are short at 15.27% and on Nike at 36.77%. On the long side Micron stands at 9.91% and Accenture at 10.61%. The way we read earnings is measured: results do not shift the average return, they widen its dispersion, which is why anyone entering before the numbers does so with a size they are prepared to see halved.
Costco Wholesale short (G / P) · Gafisa short (G / P) · Uranium Energy short (G / P) · Carnival short (G / P) · Micron Technology long (G / P) · Accenture long (G / P) · NIKE short (G / P) · Tilray Brands short (G / P) *
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UNITED STATES
Two baskets, two distances

Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: one on the edge of congestion, the other turned back below its record

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.72% and ended just 0.19% above its congestion zone, with its daily Reversal Point 0.34% below. QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, lost more at 0.84%, but still sits 2.70% above its own congestion and its daily level is 1.11% below price. Applying each basket's sector weights to the sector moves, SPY should have done minus 0.59% and QQQ minus 0.66%: both did worse, because the large names lost more than their sectors.

On levels the difference is clear. QQQ moved back inside its upper Bollinger band after two sessions outside, and its first target window at 749.11 is now 1.07% above price with a single session left: it expires at Friday's close. SPY has all three windows already taken in its twenty-fourth week and only its all-time high ahead, 1.51% away.

How I read itThese are two trades in opposite phases: SPY protects a mature 13.00% gain where the trailing stop is in charge, QQQ has every window ahead of it in week six with a 1.39% gain. But the day's change is misleading: the broad basket lost less and ended closer to its references, the narrow one lost more and still has room before breaking anything. In risk management terms, on SPY the question is whether price falls back into congestion; on QQQ, whether it takes its first window in time.
S&P 500 long (G / P) · Invesco QQQ Trust long (G / P) · Russell 2000 ETF short (G / P) *
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The desk's take

The big picture: the market is watching yields again

Wednesday's session comes down to one sentence: the market stopped looking at earnings and went back to looking at the yield curve. With the 5-year rate at 5%, the stocks that live on debt or trade like bonds were repriced first, and on top of that macro current came a sector one, Meta's assistant widening the selling from financial services to travel. The Milan market held up better than the others because its basket carries little growth and a lot of banks, but the spread rose 6.32% in a day, and that is the real risk for this index. What I would watch between now and Friday is simple: if yields pause, the day stays an episode; if they keep rising, the size of every position needs rethinking.

What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading — stops, break-even stops, trailing, and the declaration of stops that have been taken out — or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.

Previous editions
23 September 2026Technical analysis: Charles Schwab and Royal Caribbean stock slide 6% as AI agents hit consumer-inertia names, while semiconductor stocks hold up22 September 2026Technical analysis: Intel, AMD and Meta stock reignite Wall Street as semiconductor stocks rally and Milan rebounds with its banks21 September 2026Technical analysis: the SEC lifts crypto stocks as Strategy and Coinbase soar, while Europe slides with Stellantis and the banks18 September 2026Technical analysis: the day after the Fed, semiconductor stocks lead the rebound with Arm, Intel and AMD17 September 2026Technical analysis: the Fed hikes, bank stocks and oil stocks fall, chip stocks rise with Intel and Marvell16 September 2026Technical analysis: oil stocks rally as crude tops 107 dollars, Circle and Coinbase stock sink before the Fed, and the ten-year yield hits 5%View all editions on the tag page →

* Our system — The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).

Disclaimer. The content on this page is published for educational and informational purposes and reflects the author's personal opinion and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment solicitation, or a personalised recommendation. Trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss of the capital invested. Every operating decision rests solely with the reader, who acts independently and in full awareness of that risk. AiTrading67 is not a broker or financial intermediary and is not affiliated with any broker or trading platform.
Sources
1
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq updates — TheStreet, 23 settembre 2026
thestreet.com
2
Dollar mildly higher as T-note yield rises — Barchart, 23 settembre 2026
barchart.com
3
Alphabet stock dips: here's what you need to know — Benzinga, 23 settembre 2026
benzinga.com
4
Cybersecurity stocks rally while large-cap tech slides: CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Okta and Palantir each gain 4% — 24/7 Wall St., 23 settembre 2026
247wallst.com
5
Stock market: will the S&P 500 open up or down today — Benzinga via TradingView, 23 settembre 2026
tradingview.com
6
Top defense stocks to keep an eye on — Defense World, 23 settembre 2026
defenseworld.net
7
Market movers: PLTR — TradingKey, 23 settembre 2026
tradingkey.com
8
Alibaba falls 4% as reported Beijing AI probe undercuts chip rally — 24/7 Wall St., 23 settembre 2026
247wallst.com
9
DAX-Frühmover: SAP, Infineon, Siemens — Börse Social, 23 settembre 2026
boerse-social.com
10
Brazil markets: Ibovespa and the real, Wednesday 23 September 2026 — Rio Times, 23 settembre 2026
riotimesonline.com
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