ETF and stock technical analysis: the gold ETF drops 4%, the Nasdaq slips on Meta and Nvidia stock rises

An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, trades like a single share but holds a whole basket, and its price tracks the index or commodity behind it: that is why it shows at once where money is going, and on Monday it showed something clear.

GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, lost 3.94%, four times its typical daily range. Market reports describe a purely financial repricing, driven by the dollar, real yields and hike odds, with no sign from physical demand: on the day the geopolitical shock flared up again, gold lost exactly its hedging role. Our model had turned the gold ETF to sell at Friday's close. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, closed up 0.10%, and EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, up 0.80%, the best in the European grid.

In the US only the defensives held: XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, up 0.33%, and XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, up 0.27%. At the bottom sat XLC, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, down 1.58% under the weight of Meta, XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, down 1.41%, and XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, down 1.19%. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, lost 0.89% and SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, 2.08% on its first day as a new buy signal. In Europe EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, did not move. For the full ETF technical analysis of every fund we follow, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

The broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty ETFs on the major baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. On Monday almost all of them fell together, by between 0.3% and 1.1%, but none of the model's positions changed, and the comparison within each family is still the most useful reading.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, is up 12.68%, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 12.66% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 12.59%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, have been buys since 3 August and are back near their entry. On the whole market the signal has been a sell since 14 September, and all six ETFs in that group sit close to break-even: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, which lost 1.03% on Monday, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets outside the US. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, and IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, have been buys since 6 April, with gains between 5.06% and 5.76%. SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity, have been buys since 10 August. The two iShares funds IEFA, Core MSCI EAFE, and IDEV, Core MSCI International Developed Markets, together with VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, remain sells since 14 September; VGK was the steadiest of the family, down just 0.28%. VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, a buy since 6 April, is up 9.54%.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, have been buys since 13 April, up 0.86% and 2.06%; IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, and SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, since 17 August, both close to their entry. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, lost 1.06%.

Dividend, low-volatility and thematic ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September, and with yields climbing the short is working: up 1.61%, 2.62% and 1.74%. In technology VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, and QDVE, iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, have been buys since 10 August, up 2.07% and 4.97%; MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, is up 6.89% on a buy since 13 July, even after Monday's 1.54% drop.

The corporate story of the day started at MetaLong: an enterprise AI platform, with APIs and agents and pricing that mixes subscription, volume and outcome, and the hiring of MongoDB's chief executive to run it. The announcement named no customers, prices or revenue targets, yet within minutes the market repriced the whole enterprise software group: ServiceNowLong lost 3.07%, SalesforceLong 2.88% and SnowflakeLong 2.33%. Meta stocks closed down 4.79%, punished for opening a new spending front far from advertising.

Boeing stockShort fell 6.91% after the US aviation regulator again delayed the certification of the 737 MAX 10 over software issues, and was the heaviest drag on the Dow: Boeing stocks are now 26% below their monthly reference level. RobloxLong lost 9.86% after a Jefferies downgrade. Bucking the trend, Nvidia stockLong rose 1.68%: the board raised its buyback authorisation by 150 billion dollars, to 235 billion, and launched a security platform for AI workloads. Cybersecurity bounced with it, Palo Alto NetworksShort up 4.63%, ZscalerLong 3.28% and CrowdStrikeLong 2.82%, while Microsoft stockLong slipped 1.35% and Tesla stocksLong 3.94%.

Semiconductors were at the heart of the new weekly signals, and day one was uphill. Arm stockLong lost 8.70%, Intel stockLong 5.67% and AMD stockLong 3.61%, while the semiconductor ETF SOXXLong gave up 2.08%. QualcommLong dropped 7.17% with no news of its own, MarvellLong 3.83%, SandiskLong 3.65% and Super Micro ComputerLong 3.42%. In the same session Nvidia stocks rose 1.68% on their own news.

Micron stockLong lost 2.61% on the eve of its results, due on Wednesday 30 after the close. According to market reports consensus points to earnings of about 31 dollars a share on expected revenue of 50.45 billion, but investors will look above all at guidance for the next quarter. It is the result that will move the whole supply chain.

The day's widest move came not in equities but in gold, which lost 4.0% on our data; market reports put silver down 4.3%. With the odds of a Fed hike up to 70% and the US 10-year yield at a nineteen-year high, the rates channel beat the safe-haven one on the very day tension over Hormuz rose again. Miners followed: BarrickLong down 4.17% and NewmontLong down 4.43%, while in London Rio TintoLong slipped 0.41%.

Oil went the other way: according to market reports it rose as much as 3% during the day after Washington rejected Tehran's proposal. Exxon MobilLong gained 1.20%, ChevronLong 0.94% and PetrobrasLong 1.83%, while OccidentalShort lost 1.34%.

According to market reports the FTSE MIB closed down 0.21% after wiping out a 0.63% gain; the FTSE MIB ETF we follow, listed in Paris, closed up 0.21%. The best stock on the list was AmplifonShort, up 6.08% on analyst forecasts of solid third-quarter growth. Eni stockLong gained 2.03%, lifted by crude and by the first day of the cap on fuel prices; oil also carried SaipemShort, up 1.63%, and TenarisLong, up 1.56%. Luxury held firm, with MonclerShort up 2.62% and Brunello CucinelliShort up 1.98%, and StellantisShort rose 0.37% on reports that US fuel-efficiency standards could be eased until 2031.

The exchange and tender offer by Poste ItalianeShort for Telecom Italia has closed: acceptances stopped at 85.82% of the share capital, above the control threshold but below the 90% that would have allowed a delisting. Telecom ItaliaShort lost 1.73%: with a free float of around 14%, trading gets thinner. The banks did not move: UniCreditLong rose 0.39% after denying any specific interest in Banco BPMShort, Monte dei PaschiLong slipped 0.07%, its chairman confirming regular contacts with the ECB ahead of the 29 October shareholder meeting, Intesa SanpaoloLong lost 0.38% and BPERLong 0.60%. At the bottom of the list sat the signature of higher yields: InwitLong down 2.69% and EnelShort down 2.24%, stocks that suffer when money gets dearer. Ferrari stockLong lost 2.55% with no news of its own and GeneraliLong 1.49%.

According to market reports London was the positive exception, with the FTSE 100 up 0.46% on housebuilders, which outside our basket gained as much as 15% on hopes of renewed public support for home buyers. Among our names ShellLong gained 1.20% with crude, HSBCLong 0.28% and UnileverLong 0.14%, while ExperianShort lost 3.56%.

On the continent, according to market reports, there was no significant company news: common factors were in charge. In Frankfurt BMWShort lost 0.97%, VolkswagenShort 1.17%, RheinmetallShort 1.64% and SAPLong 1.02%, while BayerLong gained 1.56% and AllianzShort 0.47%. BASFLong, after confirming talks about Evonik on Friday, slipped another 0.28%. In Paris OrangeShort fell 1.55% and ThalesShort 1.48%, while DanoneShort was flat.

On Monday the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort closed down 0.04%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort down 0.12% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort down 0.13%, while the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort rose 0.21%. As Wall Street lost between 0.7% and 1.1%, Europe stood still, and all four baskets remain under their weekly sell signal, with prices between 1.82% (Milan) and 2.66% (Frankfurt) below the level that judges it.

The new analysis moved the no-trade zones, and today three of the four baskets sit right on the floor: Frankfurt 0.03% above it, Paris 0.09%, London 0.07%. Milan is the only one with some room, 0.61%. Paris, a sell since 24 August, has its short up 3.57% and Milan 0.36%, while Frankfurt and London are at break-even.

The cohort was born with Friday 25 September's close: 11 new buy signals, against 5 the week before, and 5 tradable, all with average setup quality and a cautious entry. We publish it in full today; from tomorrow we will report only what changes. Seven of the eleven are US technology, and the tightest group is semiconductors, with ArmLong, AMDLong, IntelLong and the sector ETF. There are no new sell signals on this list: this week's flips to sell involve gold, German carmakers, the big US banks and some oil producers.

The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Five companies in our universe report between today and Thursday. Today it is the turn of CarnivalShort and Uranium EnergyShort. The name that matters most is MicronLong, on Wednesday 30 after the close. Thursday 1 October brings AccentureLong and NikeShort, which according to market reports arrives at a twelve-year low with consensus at 0.44 dollars a share.

Tuesday 29 September

Carnival Short

Uranium Energy Short

Wednesday 30 September

Micron Technology Long

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.74% and closed right on its daily Reversal Point, 0.02% below it: the short term is on a knife edge. It slipped below its new no-trade zone, 0.57% under the floor, and sits 1.77% below its all-time high. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, lost 1.07% and also dropped out of its range from below, but its short-term signal still has 0.28% of room above the daily level.

On targets the two baskets remain in opposite phases. SPY has already taken all three windows and is managed on the trailing stop, with the weekly Reversal Point 0.94% below the price. QQQ is in its seventh week, close to its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead, by the eleventh and the seventeenth week.