ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF turns back to buy as Michael Burry bets against Micron stock

An ETF is a listed fund: it trades on an exchange like a single share, but it holds a whole basket, and its price follows the index, sector or commodity it tracks. That makes it the most direct way to see where money is moving.

SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, ended the week up 7.43%, 1.17% of it on Friday alone, and with the weekly candle our model turned it back to buy: it is the most significant reversal of the week, because two weeks ago chips were the market's problem. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, went the other way: up 0.44% on Friday but down 1.93% on the week, squeezed by yields and the dollar, and its weekly signal turned to sell.

EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, gained 1.23%, the best European sector of the session, while EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, lost 1.18% and XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, 0.89%: with crude falling, banks and energy move as mirror images. In the US the lead came from XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, the US industrials ETF, up 0.95%, and XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, up 0.80% and 7.35% on the month. XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, turned to sell on the weekly, and so did EXHG, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts, the European autos ETF, which lost 2.52% on the week. For our global ETF technical analysis, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

Broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty ETFs on the big baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. The week that has just closed did not change their picture, and that is the point.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, the most traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, stands at 13.52%, SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, at 13.56% and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, at 13.49%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, the fifty largest companies in the index, have been buys since 3 August and were the strongest of the family this week, up 1.61% and 1.76%. On the whole market the signal remains a sell from 14 September: VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, the Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and on the Russell 1000, IWB. On Friday they all rose between 0.43% and 0.53%, and between 0.88% and 1.25% over the week.

Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, VEU, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, and IXUS, the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, have been buys since 6 April, with gains between 5.88% and 6.53%; SPDW, the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, the Schwab International Equity, since 10 August. The two iShares funds IEFA, the Core MSCI EAFE, and IDEV, the Core MSCI International Developed Markets, together with VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, remain sells from 14 September. On Friday the family did better than the US, up between 0.64% and 1.11%, and VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF, a buy since 6 April, stands at 10.38%.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, have been buys since 13 April, IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, and SPEM, the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, since 17 August; on Friday they gained between 0.48% and 1.04%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, rose 2.21%, the best of the family, and switched its daily signal back on to buy, within a weekly buy that dates from 10 August.

Dividend, low-volatility and thematic ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, the iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, remain sells from 8 September: these are the baskets that behave most like bonds, and a week of rising yields left them behind, between minus 0.42% and plus 0.24%. In technology VGT, the Vanguard Information Technology, and QDVE, the iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, have been buys since 10 August and closed the week up 3.16% and 4.34%; MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, stands at 8.56% on a buy from 13 July.

On Tuesday 22 September Michael Burry, the fund manager made famous by his bet against US mortgages before the 2008 crisis, wrote on his Substack that he had added to his short positions in Micron, PalantirLong, NebiusLong and the semiconductor ETF SOXXLong, on top of those already disclosed in NvidiaLong and Applied MaterialsShort. His thesis is that the memory shortage that has made the sector's fortune is temporary: output is catching up, helped by rising yields at Chinese chipmaker CXMT, the memory cycle will turn down again and money will rotate out of semiconductors.

So far the week has gone the other way. Micron stockLong closed up 6.54%, Palantir 6.77%, Nebius 6.17% and the semiconductor ETF 7.43%. In the same candle AMD stockLong rose 12.65%, Arm stockLong 12.59% and Intel stockLong 13.26%, and on all three our model is back to buy. On Friday AMD gained 0.22% after Bank of America raised its price target on demand for processors running AI agents, Arm added 1.30%, while Intel gave back 3.45%.

The rest of the chain followed: QualcommLong up 3.97% on the day and 13.65% on the week, Texas InstrumentsShort up 2.74%, Applied Materials up 2.27%, Super Micro ComputerLong up 4.22% and MarvellLong up 1.15%. In memory SandiskLong recovered 1.38% and Western DigitalShort 1.44%. Micron reports on Wednesday 30 September after the close, with earnings expected at about ten times the level of a year ago: it will be the first referee between Burry's thesis and the market.

On Friday artificial intelligence produced the two opposite stories of the session. Microsoft stockLong gained 3.66%, at its highest of the year according to market reports, after the relaunch of Copilot with persistent agents and code-generation tools. Meta stockLong lost 3.33%, wiping out the previous day's gain, after a Goldman Sachs note estimated that the big platforms need around 300 billion dollars a year of AI revenue just to recoup their investment. Along the same line CloudflareLong fell 2.73% on Citi's doubts about the economics of AI traffic, and OracleLong 1.75%, its third losing session after declaring force majeure on its New Mexico data centre.

Software split well beyond that theme. DatadogLong rose 4.36%, close to its 52-week high, while cybersecurity sold off as a group: Zscaler stockLong fell 10.06% after the exit of its chief revenue officer, an event analysts see as having limited impact, Palo Alto NetworksShort 3.89%, FortinetLong 2.92% and CrowdStrikeLong 2.90%. Tesla stockLong lost 1.54% after BNP Paribas cut its price target, and NvidiaLong closed up 0.22%.

Crude was the real driver of the session, down 2.33% on our data after Iran's foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days. Among US producers Occidental stockShort lost 2.05% and ConocoPhillipsShort 1.58%, and with the weekly close our model turned both to sell, along with HalliburtonShort. Exxon MobilLong slipped 0.96% and ChevronLong 0.58%, while ValeroLong, a refiner that earns more when crude is cheaper, rose 1.13%.

On the other side of the ledger sat the airlines: DeltaShort up 2.63% and UnitedShort up 2.52%. In Brazil PetrobrasLong lost 2.00% and UltraparLong 5.77%, with every fuel distributor under pressure.

Milan closed higher, with the FTSE MIB ETF up 0.47%, pulled up by the banks on a day of falling oil. UniCredit stockLong gained 2.15%, BPERLong 2.06%, MediobancaLong 1.47%, Monte dei PaschiLong 1.27%, Banco BPMShort 1.14% and Intesa SanpaoloLong 0.95%, with GeneraliLong up 0.92% and NexiLong up 1.63%. AvioShort rose 2.29% after the closing of the investment by funds managed by Advent International, and StellantisShort 1.74%.

Telecom Italia stockShort fell 2.69% on the last day of the reopened tender offer from Poste Italiane: by 24 September acceptances had reached 69.43% of the shares covered by the offer. Poste ItalianeShort gained 0.43%. Oil names lost ground with crude, TenarisLong down 1.89% and EniLong down 1.17%; AmplifonShort fell 1.25%, FerrariLong 1.00% and LeonardoShort 0.68%, drawn into the Airbus A321neo case because the faulty primer was applied by one of its subcontractors.

In Frankfurt the DAX ETF gained 0.54%. The story of the day was the non-binding approach by BASFLong for Evonik, confirmed by both companies: BASF lost 3.59%, the usual pattern for a buyer. Banks recovered on hopes of easing tension in the Middle East, with Deutsche Bank stockShort up 2.68%; SiemensShort gained 1.27%, AllianzShort 1.03% and SAPLong 0.94%, while BMWShort lost 1.31%.

In Paris Société GénéraleShort rose 3.49% and BNP ParibasShort 0.88%, while AirbusShort slipped 1.02% after flagging a flaw in the anti-corrosion coating of fuselage parts on about 500 A321neo jets, with no safety risk and its delivery target confirmed, and TotalEnergiesLong fell 1.31% with oil. In London GlencoreShort gained 2.20% after an upgrade from UBS, LloydsShort 1.68% on the day it completed its 1.75 billion pound buyback and BarclaysShort 1.60%, while ShellLong lost 0.82%.

On Friday the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort gained 0.54%, the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.47% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.21%, while the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort was flat. All four closed the week higher, from 0.35% in Frankfurt to 0.63% in Milan, and all four remain below their weekly sell signal, with the price between 2.09% in London and 3.03% in Frankfurt under the level that judges it.

On Thursday three of the four were pressing on the lower edge of their congestion zone, and the DAX had just slipped out of it. Friday's rebound brought them all back inside: Frankfurt 0.37% above the floor, London 0.50%, Milan 0.86%, Paris 1.36%. Paris, a sell since 24 August, has the short 3.46% in profit and Milan 0.56%, while Frankfurt and London are close to break-even.

Until Monday's new cohort, this card reports only what changes. The first test is passed: Friday's candle confirmed all five buy signals born on Friday 18 September. There are three changes. AppleLong is back above its entry price, at 1.47% after Friday's 1.53% gain. TescoLong slipped below, at minus 0.63%, and InwitLong at minus 0.23%. Virgin GalacticLong remains furthest ahead, at 3.91%, and MARA HoldingsLong furthest behind, at minus 5.21%. None changed side on the daily and none reports this week.

The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

CostcoShort opened the season with a fourth quarter ahead of expectations: earnings per share of 6.75 dollars against 6.54 expected, revenue of 95.72 billion and comparable sales up 9.4%, with about 15 cents a share coming from tariff refunds. The stock gained 2.93%. Six companies in our universe report from Tuesday to Thursday, and the name that carries most weight is MicronLong, on Wednesday 30 September after the close, with a consensus of about 31 dollars of earnings per share. NikeShort reports on 1 October after Bank of America cut its price target and raised doubts about the dividend.

Tuesday 29 September

Carnival Short

Uranium Energy Short

Wednesday 30 September

Micron Technology Long

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

Tilray Brands Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, ended the week up 1.27%, 0.65% above the ceiling of its congestion zone and 1.04% below its all-time high; the weekly Reversal Point has moved up and now protects 11.35% of gain. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, rose 3.19%, with the weekly high stopping 76 cents short of the first target window, which expired with Friday's close.

On targets the two baskets remain in opposite phases. SPY has all three windows behind it in its twenty-fourth week and the trailing stop is in charge. QQQ has the second and third windows ahead, 19.19% and 41.48% above the price, due by the eleventh and seventeenth weeks.