ETF technical analysis: with yields at 2007 highs the communication services ETF and the European oil ETF rise, while Oracle stock slips

An ETF is a fund that trades on an exchange like a single share and, with one purchase, puts a whole basket in your hands: an index, a sector, a commodity. Those labelled UCITS follow the European fund rules, which is the form in which ETFs are bought on the continent's markets.

XLC, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, the US communication services ETF, gained 1.27%, the best sector of the session, carried by Meta. EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, rose 1.16%, the only European sector higher, and XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, added 0.37%. On the other side XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, lost 0.98% and is now down 9.12% on the month: it is the basket paying the full price of dearer money.

GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, slipped 0.30% for a third day, pressed by yields and the dollar. Among Vanguard ETFs, VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF, lost 0.18% and VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, the Vanguard ETF on equities outside the US, 0.38%, because it was mostly Europe that paid yesterday. For our global ETF technical analysis, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

Broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty ETFs on the big baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. Read together, they say something the session alone does not show.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, the most traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, stands at 12.91%, SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, at 12.92% and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, at 12.93%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, the fifty largest companies in the index, have been buys since August. On the whole market, by contrast, the signal turned to sell on 14 September: VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard ETF on the entire US market, ITOT, the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, the Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB. Yesterday they all moved between minus 0.11% and plus 0.13%: the difference is not in the session, it is in the direction of the signal.

Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, VEU, the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, and IXUS, the iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, have been buys since 6 April, with gains between 4.86% and 5.50%; SPDW, the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, the Schwab International Equity, since 10 August. The two iShares funds IEFA, the Core MSCI EAFE, and IDEV, the Core MSCI International Developed Markets, together with VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, turned to sell on 14 September. Yesterday they lost between 0.31% and 0.52%, except the Europe ETF, which was flat.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, the Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, have been buys since 13 April, IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, and SPEM, the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, since 17 August; yesterday they slipped between 0.41% and 0.63%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, lost 1.27%, on a buy signal born on 10 August.

Dividend, low-volatility and thematic ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, the iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September: these are the baskets that behave most like bonds, and rising yields hit them first. In technology VGT, the Vanguard Information Technology, and QDVE, the iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, have been buys since 10 August, and MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, gained 0.60% on a buy since July now worth 8.37%.

According to press reports the US 10-year yield rose to between 5.10% and 5.14%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year to 5.43%, a high since 2004, driven by inflation worries and crude up more than 3% as talks over the Strait of Hormuz stalled. US indices closed almost flat, but when money gets dearer for this long the useful question is which stocks suffer most.

We measured it over the last six months, comparing every session with the move in 10-year yields. For every 10 basis points higher, Robinhood stockLong lost 3.5% on average, Shopify stocksShort 3%, Coinbase stockLong 2.7%, Oracle stockLong 2.2%, Alphabet stockShort 1.9% and Tesla stockLong 1.8%, against 1.1% for the S&P 500. At the other end sit Apple stockLong and Microsoft stocksLong, barely affected, while the energy ETF gains 1.8% for the same rise. The small-cap ETF Russell 2000 ETFShort, whose companies refinance first, loses 1.6%.

Artificial intelligence produced the two opposite headlines of the session. Meta stocksLong gained 4.50% after setting out plans to make money from Muse, its AI agent. Oracle stocksLong fell 3.47% after serving a force majeure notice on its huge New Mexico data centre, a project of around 165 billion dollars that the company says is still on schedule: the market read it as a sign of execution risk across the whole AI infrastructure build-out.

Chipmakers split. ArmShort lost 7.88%, Western DigitalShort 4.94%, SandiskLong 3.47% and BroadcomShort 1.30%, while Intel stockShort rose 3.91%, AMDShort 2.38% and Micron stocksLong 0.81% six days before results. Nvidia stockLong eased 0.41%. Among data-centre and Bitcoin names, NebiusLong jumped 7.44%, CleanSparkShort fell 1.38% and TeraWulfShort 0.37%.

US health care was the session's second-best sector, up 0.63%, with wider moves on single names. Moderna stockLong gained 6.98%, RecursionLong 5.14%, Eli LillyShort 2.68%, Novo NordiskShort 1.18%, UnitedHealthShort 1% and Johnson & JohnsonLong 0.56%. Against the tide, uniQureLong fell 10.38%.

Outside the sector, the day's widest move came from First SolarShort, down 10.32% on three times its normal volume with 93% of trading on the sell side, and no company news in the press.

Milan closed with the FTSE MIB down 0.85%, the weakest market in Europe. The story of the day was Fincantieri stockLong, down 5.47% on the very day that Orizzonte Sistemi Navali, its joint venture with Leonardo, signed a contract worth around 3.7 billion euros for two next-generation destroyers for the Italian Navy, with deliveries in 2033 and 2035. LeonardoShort lost 2.26% as well: the deal was expected, and the market used it to take profits.

Also lower were Stellantis stockShort, down 4.31% on the day of the registration figures, PrysmianShort down 3.85%, LottomaticaLong down 3.10%, AvioShort down 3.01%, STMicroelectronicsShort down 2.73% and FinecoBankShort down 2.45%. Among banks UniCreditLong fell 1.55%, BPERLong 1.26%, Monte dei PaschiLong 0.66% and MediobancaLong 0.49%, while Intesa SanpaoloLong and GeneraliLong edged up. At the top was Eni stockLong, up 1.39% with crude higher and a proposed financing of up to 6 billion dollars from the US export credit agency for the Argentina LNG project, in which Eni is a partner; then Poste ItalianeShort up 0.98%, TenarisLong up 0.85% and DiaSorinLong up 0.54%. The utilities that paid for higher rates on Wednesday stood still: EnelShort down 0.06%, ItalgasShort down 0.02%.

In Germany the basket gave up another 0.63%. The widest losses were on InfineonShort, down 3.94%, and RheinmetallShort, down 3.41%; carmakers kept falling, with VolkswagenLong down 2.85%, BMWLong down 2.45% and Mercedes-BenzLong down 2.04%, and with them Deutsche BankLong, down 2.31%. SAP stockLong lost 1.22% too. AllianzLong rebounded 1.48% after Wednesday's heavy session, while SiemensShort, Deutsche TelekomLong and Siemens HealthineersLong were flat.

London closed almost unchanged thanks to oil: ShellLong rose 1.70%, while BAE SystemsShort lost 1.51%, Rolls-RoyceLong 1.28% and HSBCLong 0.98%, with the Bank of England hinting at further hikes if energy stays expensive. In Paris TotalEnergiesLong gained 1.80% and OrangeShort eased 0.32%.

On Thursday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 0.92%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort 0.63%, and the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort and FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.29% each. All four remain below their weekly sell signal, with the week's typical price between 2.02% in London and 2.94% in Frankfurt below the level that judges it.

Three of the four baskets now sit on the lower edge of their congestion zone. The DAX closed 0.17% below the floor, where it already sat last week, with its daily signal on sell; London closed 0.29% above its own and Milan 0.36%, its short term a whisker from turning. Paris stays mid-band. Paris, selling since 24 August, has its short up 3.43%; Milan 1.05%.

From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes, and today three things did. TescoLong moved back above its entry price, now at 0.17% after yesterday's 1.25% gain. Apple stocksLong slipped just below, to minus 0.06%, and MARA HoldingsLong to minus 2.42% as Bitcoin miners weakened. Virgin GalacticLong, at 4.23%, and InwitLong, at 0.23%, stay above. None changed side on the daily and none reports earnings this week.

The caveat always applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Costco opened the season on Thursday evening with results above expectations: fourth-quarter revenue of 93.9 billion dollars, up 11.2%, and earnings per share of 6.75 dollars. Six companies in our universe report from Tuesday to next Thursday, and the name that matters most for markets is MicronLong, on 30 September: it is the gauge of the memory cycle and of sentiment across semiconductor stocks.

Tuesday 29 September

Carnival Short

Uranium Energy Short

Wednesday 30 September

Micron Technology Long

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

Tilray Brands Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, closed down 0.08% after opening inside its congestion zone and leaving it by the close, 0.10% above the ceiling; its daily Reversal Point is now 0.21% below price. QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, recovered a 0.80% weaker open to close down 0.01%, with 80.60% of volume on the buy side and its daily level 1.02% below.

On targets the two baskets are in opposite phases. SPY has all three windows already taken in its twenty-fourth week and only its all-time high ahead, 1.59% away. QQQ has its first window at 749.11, 1.08% above price, and it expires at today's close.