ETF and stock technical analysis: Fiserv stock jumps 12.46%, Eaton gains 7.00% and the semiconductor ETF 2.50%; Ferrari stock rises 4.47% in Milan
On Tuesday 3 November, US midterm election day, ETF technical analysis shows the artificial intelligence trade coming back. The semiconductor ETF SOXX gained 2.50% and the US technology ETF XLK 1.31%, while the consumer staples ETF XLP lost 2.07% and the materials ETF XLB 2.01%. After the close AMD and Super Micro beat expectations: the reaction comes today.
The vote went into prices. Traders bought what a change of majority could favour, renewables, crypto and managed care, and sold carmakers and consumer staples. Fiserv stock rose 12.46% on results, with revenue down but a one-billion cost-saving plan; Eaton stock gained 7.00% on record data centre orders and a third guidance raise.
In Europe the Milan market held up better than the rest: the FTSE MIB ETF closed down 0.02%, with Ferrari stock up 4.47% on results and a close on the high, and Stellantis stock down 3.88% on doubts over US electric vehicle incentives. Intesa Sanpaolo raised its profit guidance and said that, after its offer for Monte dei Paschi, it will launch the mandatory offer for Mediobanca.
Among Milan stocks, Ferrari stocks led the day. Our model stays short the Nasdaq 100 and the Italian basket; on SPY the week in progress stays below the level that judges the 29-week long, and Friday decides. Today euro area inflation, the US services index and results from Datadog, AppLovin and Telecom Italia.
- ETF technical analysis: chips up, consumer staples down
- Commodities: oil, gold, copper and gas
- Artificial intelligence: AMD, Nvidia, CoreWeave
- Electrification: Eaton, GE Vernova, Vertiv
- The vote in prices: Enphase, Riot, Ford
- Results against numbers: Fiserv, Shopify, Archer-Daniels-Midland
- Milan stocks: Ferrari, Intesa, Stellantis
- Europe: Bayer, Glencore, Compass
- European indices: Milan holds
- This week's new signals: the changes
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF rises 2.50%, technology 1.31%; consumer staples fall 2.07%, materials 2.01%
An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that buys a whole basket of stocks in one go: following sector ETFs is the quickest way to see where money is moving. On Tuesday it went back into technology after a week of selling, and out of defensives and materials.
In the US SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, rose 2.50%, XLK, technology, 1.31%, XLC, communications, 1.18%, XLI, industrials, 0.95%, MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, 0.81%. At the bottom XLP, the consumer staples ETF, down 2.07%, XLB, materials, down 2.01%, XLE, energy, down 0.85%, XLF, financials, down 0.64%.
In Europe only EXHG, autos, closed above flat, up 0.31%. Lower: EXV6, basic resources, down 2.60% with copper, EXH1, oil and gas, down 0.96%, EXV3, European technology, down 0.93%, EXV1, the European banks ETF, down 0.77%.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Commodities: WTI crude, gold, copper and TTF gas, with the day's, week's and month's change and our model's weekly and monthly signal
WTI crude oil: down 0.38% on the day, down 7.71% on the week, down 7.71% on the month. Weekly on buy since 20 July, 3.54% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2026.
Gold: down 0.42% on the day, up 1.41% on the week, up 1.41% on the month. Weekly on sell since 28 September, 5.70% below the level; monthly on sell since June 2026.
Copper: down 2.52% on the day, down 1.23% on the week, down 1.23% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 April, 0.91% below the level; monthly on buy since March 2025. The current weekly candle is turning on sell, provisional until the close.
TTF gas: down 3.44% on the day, down 11.87% on the week, down 11.87% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 July, 3.03% above the level; monthly on buy since January 2026.
AMD stock up 3.65%, Broadcom up 3.07%, Arm up 2.90%, Micron up 2.58%, Nvidia up 2.29%; Applied Digital up 9.80%, Nebius up 7.25%, CoreWeave up 7.16%
The rebound started during the session: AMDShort up 3.65%, BroadcomShort up 3.07%, ArmShort up 2.90%, MicronShort up 2.58%, NvidiaShort up 2.29%, CredoShort up 7.78%. Data centre infrastructure, hit hardest in late October, ran the most: Applied DigitalShort up 9.80%, NebiusShort up 7.25% after a 2.7 billion share sale, CoreWeaveShort up 7.16%. Among the giants MicrosoftLong up 2.74% and MetaShort up 2.36%.
The numbers came after the close. AMD guided revenue above consensus, with a one-billion charge tied to its contracts with OpenAI and Meta and growth of up to 80% in 2027, and gained about 7% in evening trading. Super MicroShort, up 3.12% in the session, reported quarterly revenue of 19.9 billion with raised guidance; Arista NetworksShort, up 3.52%, nearly doubled its profit.
Eaton stock up 7.00%, GE Vernova up 6.49%, Quanta Services up 5.77%, Vertiv up 5.23%, Bloom Energy up 9.05%, Constellation Energy up 2.39%
Eaton stockShort gained 7.00%: record orders driven by data centres, revenue of 8.95 billion and a third upward revision of 2026 guidance. The pull spread along the whole power chain: GE VernovaShort up 6.49% despite cut targets, Quanta ServicesShort up 5.77% with a record backlog, VertivShort up 5.23%, Constellation EnergyLong up 2.39%. Bloom EnergyShort was the best, up 9.05%, on a Barclays upgrade and a deal for new power capacity in California.
Enphase stock up 8.92%, SolarEdge up 8.86%, Plug Power up 7.63%, Riot up 18.41%, Coinbase up 5.53%, Oscar Health up 4.55%; Ford down 2.30%, Walmart down 2.22%
On election day the market built positions on a possible change of majority. Renewables were the most direct vehicle: EnphaseShort up 8.92%, SolarEdgeShort up 8.86% ahead of its results, Plug PowerShort up 7.63%. Bitcoin miners beat bitcoin itself: Riot PlatformsShort up 18.41%, CipherShort up 18.37%, TeraWulfShort up 14.53%; CoinbaseShort up 5.53%, helped by the CFTC's go-ahead for perpetual contracts on single stocks. Oscar HealthLong up 4.55% on managed care.
On the other side, carmakers, on uncertainty over electric vehicle incentives: FordShort down 2.30%, Stellantis down 5.1% in New York. And consumer staples sold across the board: WalmartLong down 2.22%, PepsiCoLong down 2.24%, CostcoLong down 2.05%.
Fiserv stock up 12.46%; Shopify down 8.74%, Archer-Daniels-Midland down 6.82%, Duolingo down 5.37%, Pfizer down 2.18%, Amgen down 0.90%
Several companies closed against their own results. FiservLong rose 12.46% with revenue down 1%: the market bought the one-billion savings plan and the return to organic growth flagged for the fourth quarter. ShopifyLong lost 8.74% with revenue up 32% and a 22% free cash flow margin. Archer-Daniels-MidlandShort fell 6.82% on a sharply recovering quarter and raised guidance, on doubts about biofuel margins.
PfizerLong fell 2.18% despite raising 2026 guidance; AmgenLong slipped 0.90% on a quarter above expectations, weighed down by Prolia sales lost to biosimilars; DuolingoShort dropped 5.37% a few hours before reporting daily active users up 29% and recovering after hours.
Milan stocks: Ferrari up 4.47%, Amplifon up 2.98%, Prysmian up 0.81%, Intesa Sanpaolo up 0.57%; Stellantis down 3.88%, Brunello Cucinelli down 3.55%, Tenaris down 2.42%
Ferrari stockShort gained 4.47%, closing on the high on 3.8 times average volume: third-quarter profit up 12%, 2026 guidance raised thanks to mix and personalisation rather than volumes, and the new Luce already sold out for 2027. Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort rose 0.57% after results above expectations: the bank raised its guidance, lifted the exchange ratio of its offer for Monte dei PaschiShort to 1.664 Intesa shares per MPS share after the interim dividend, and said it will then launch the mandatory offer for Mediobanca · under a public tender offer by Intesa Sanpaolo at €1.25 and 1.6 Intesa Sanpaolo shares per share: the price follows the offer, not the results. AmplifonLong rose 2.98% with no company news, PrysmianShort 0.81%.
Lower: Stellantis stockShort, down 3.88%, on uncertainty over US electric vehicle incentives; Brunello CucinelliLong down 3.55% on a press comment about the growth gap in luxury; oil names with crude, TenarisLong down 2.42% ahead of results, EniLong down 1.81%, SaipemLong down 1.43%. PirelliLong down 0.97%, Banco BPMShort down 0.78%, LeonardoShort down 0.77%.
European stocks: Bayer up 3.64%, LVMH up 1.99%; adidas down 2.75%, Dassault Systèmes down 2.50%, Glencore down 2.83%, Rio Tinto down 1.90%, Compass down 2.87%, Diageo down 2.35%
BayerLong closed up 3.64% with revenue and earnings per share below expectations but a fast-growing pharma division that allowed a guidance raise; the legal disputes remain open. LVMHShort rose 1.99%, on a day when luxury rewarded only the very top end. Lower: adidasLong down 2.75% and Dassault SystèmesLong down 2.50%. In London miners fell with copper, GlencoreShort down 2.83% and Rio TintoShort down 1.90%, and so did consumer names, CompassLong down 2.87% and DiageoLong down 2.35%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF closes down 0.02%, the CAC 40 ETF falls 0.36%, the DAX ETF 0.44%, the FTSE 100 ETF 1.15%
On Tuesday the FTSE MIB ETFShort closed almost flat, down 0.02%, while the CAC 40Short ETF lost 0.36%, the DAXShort ETF 0.44% and the FTSE 100Long ETF 1.15%, with the miners. 65% of DAX companies stand above their 200-day average, against 32% of the whole German market: the index rests on its largest names.
On the Italian basket the model's short is up 4.15%, on sell since 31 August, and the price sits 1.20% below the weekly level. During the session the high went above the top of the latest analysis's waiting zone, and the close came back below.
This week's new buy signals: the changes in the second session, with Bayer after results and two dailies turned to sell
Friday's cohort has 23 new buy signals, 15 tradable. In the second session fifteen stand above the entry price, including BuzziLong, AbbottLong, HoneywellLong and AvioLong; none dropped out. Below, the changes: who reported and where the daily turned.
Also slightly below entry: SLB, the European utilities ETF, Terna and Norwegian Cruise Line.
This week's earnings: Datadog, AppLovin, Qualcomm and Telecom Italia on Wednesday 4 November, Buzzi, Siemens Healthineers and Airbnb on Thursday 5, Moderna on Friday 6
23 companies in our universe report between today and Friday, among those we follow most closely. Today DatadogLong, AppLovinShort, QualcommShort, ArmShort and Telecom ItaliaShort; Thursday BuzziLong, Siemens HealthineersLong, TenarisLong and AirbnbLong; Friday ModernaLong.
Wednesday 4 November
Datadog Long
AppLovin Short
QUALCOMM Short
ARM Short
Fastly Long
Uber Technologies Short
McDonald's Long
Novo Nordisk Short
Snap Long
Riot Platforms Short
SolarEdge Technologies Short
Telecom Italia Short
Bayerische Motoren Werke Short
Thursday 5 November
Siemens Healthineers Long
Buzzi Long
Tenaris Long
Azimut Short
Pirelli & C. Long
Airbnb Long
ConocoPhillips Long
IonQ Short
Toyota Motor Long
Friday 6 November
Moderna Long
This week's economic calendar: euro area inflation and ISM services on Wednesday 4 November, Bank of England on Thursday 5, US payrolls on Friday 6, US inflation on Tuesday 10
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today the euro area flash inflation estimate and the US services index; Thursday the Bank of England; Friday US payrolls; next Tuesday US inflation.
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
16:00 · United States · October ISM services index high impact
Thursday 5 November
13:00 · United Kingdom · Bank of England: rate decision high impact
Friday 6 November
14:30 · United States · October payrolls and unemployment high impact
16:00 · United States · University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary high impact
Monday 9 November
08:00 · Germany · German September trade balance high impact
Tuesday 10 November
14:30 · United States · US October inflation high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY rises 0.30% with the week below the level, QQQ 0.62% on the 200-day average
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.30%, 3.49% below its all-time high. The average of high, low and close of the week in progress stays below the Reversal Point that judges the long born in April: if Friday stays there, the weekly signal turns to sell.
QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, rose 0.62%, 10.17% below its record, and closed exactly on the 200-day average, just below the waiting zone of the latest analysis. The model's short is up 3.45%, 5.09% below the weekly level. 62% of S&P 500 companies stand above the 200-day average, against 42% of the US stocks we follow.
The big picture: the artificial intelligence rebound and the US vote
On Tuesday the US market bought back chips and data centres and priced in the vote: renewables and crypto up, carmakers and consumer staples down. Europe fell with the miners, Milan held with Ferrari and Intesa. Our model is short the Nasdaq 100 and the Italian basket, long the S&P 500 with the week in progress below its level: Friday decides. Today the reaction to AMD's results.
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