ETF and stock technical analysis: Buzzi stock rises 6.23% in Milan; Marvell stock slumps 12.72%, Oracle falls 8.76% and the energy ETF 3.96%
On Monday 2 November the Milan market rose with the rest of Europe: the FTSE MIB ETF MIB gained 0.95%, led by Buzzi stock, up 6.23% with no company news, and by the banks. Our model has been short the Italian basket since late August, up 4.13%, with this week's stop only about 1% above the price.
Wall Street moved its money without leaving the market, and ETF technical analysis shows the rotation clearly. The US technology ETF XLK lost 2.95% and the energy ETF XLE 3.96%, while the consumer discretionary ETF XLY gained 2.41% and the financials ETF XLF 1.86%. The trigger was the ISM manufacturing index at 55.5 against 54.6 expected: a solid economy lifts cyclicals and takes the air out of technology.
Marvell stock fell 12.72% after agreeing to buy Lumentum at an enterprise value of 115 billion dollars, all in shares and rejected by shareholders of both companies. Oracle stock dropped 8.76% after a bond sale of about 10 billion with coupons up to 8.65%: the cost of debt behind the data centre build-out has become the sector's theme. Energy fell as Gulf exports returned to pre-war rates.
Today America votes in the midterm elections, and equity volatility rose 8.9% on the eve. Ferrari, AMD and Shopify report; after yesterday's close Apple and Palantir lost about 3% in after-hours trading despite growing revenue. On SPY the new week started below the level that judges the 29-week long: Friday's close decides.
- ETF technical analysis: consumer up, technology and energy down
- Commodities: oil, gold, copper and gas
- Technology and debt: Marvell, Oracle, Intel
- Travel, consumer and payments: United, Walmart, Mastercard
- Energy: Occidental, Exxon, Chevron, Eni
- Milan stocks: Buzzi, Moncler, STMicroelectronics
- Europe: Safran, Hermès, Rheinmetall
- European indices: all of Europe higher
- This week's new signals: the changes
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the consumer discretionary ETF rises 2.41%, financials 1.86%; technology falls 2.95%, energy 3.96%
An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that buys a whole basket of stocks in one go: following sector ETFs is the quickest way to see where money is moving. On Monday it moved out of technology and energy and into consumer, financial, materials and industrial stocks.
In the US XLY, the consumer discretionary ETF, rose 2.41%, XLF, financials, 1.86%, XLB, materials, 1.76%, XLP, consumer staples, 1.58%, XLI, industrials, 1.38%. At the bottom XLK, the US technology ETF, down 2.95%, SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, down 3.79%, and XLE, the US energy ETF, down 3.96%. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, down 0.42%.
In Europe EXV6, basic resources, up 1.82%, EXV1, the European banks ETF, up 1.09%, EXV3, European technology, up 0.47%; lower EXH1, oil and gas, down 2.33%, and EXV4, European healthcare, down 0.51%.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Commodities: WTI crude, gold, copper and TTF gas, with the day's, week's and month's change and our model's weekly and monthly signal
WTI crude oil: down 7.36% on the day, down 7.36% on the week, down 7.36% on the month. Weekly on buy since 20 July, 3.94% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2026.
Gold: up 1.83% on the day, up 1.83% on the week, up 1.83% on the month. Weekly on sell since 28 September, 5.30% below the level; monthly on sell since June 2026.
Copper: up 1.32% on the day, up 1.32% on the week, up 1.32% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 April, 1.65% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2025.
TTF gas: down 8.74% on the day, down 8.74% on the week, down 8.74% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 July, 6.70% above the level; monthly on buy since January 2026.
Semiconductor stocks and debt: Marvell stock down 12.72%, Oracle down 8.76%, Intel down 8.80%, AMD down 7.52%, Western Digital down 7.52%, Dell down 7.43%, Micron down 5.78%
Marvell stockShort lost 12.72%, closing near the low: the purchase of Lumentum, which makes lasers and optical parts for data centres, is worth 115 billion dollars in enterprise value and is all in shares, leaving 67% of the combined company to Marvell holders. Shareholders of both companies objected, and the stock was downgraded. Oracle stockShort fell 8.76%: its bond sale of about 10 billion carries coupons between 7.45% and 8.65%, which the market read as the price of risk on the data centre race.
Alongside, IntelShort down 8.80%, AMDShort down 7.52%, Western DigitalShort down 7.52%, DellShort down 7.43%, MicronShort down 5.78%, NvidiaShort down 1.26%. After the close AppleLong confirmed growing iPhone sales but margins squeezed by memory costs, and PalantirLong took revenue to 2.313 billion, up 96% on the year: both lost about 3% after hours.
United Airlines stock up 4.80%, Expedia up 4.57%, Royal Caribbean up 4.52%, Airbnb up 4.09%, Home Depot up 3.63%, Walmart up 3.38%, Mastercard up 3.15%, Visa up 2.88%
The rotation shows in the names: in travel United AirlinesShort up 4.80%, ExpediaShort up 4.57%, Royal CaribbeanLong up 4.52%, AirbnbLong up 4.09%, BookingShort up 3.79%; in retail Home DepotLong up 3.63%, WalmartLong up 3.38%, CostcoLong up 2.79%; in payments MastercardLong up 3.15%, VisaLong up 2.88%, PayPalShort up 3.10%, Wells FargoShort up 2.99%.
Among industrials GE AerospaceShort rose 4.63% with no company news. In healthcare AbbottLong gained 3.73% on cardiovascular device studies and RegeneronLong 3.60% on a string of raised targets. Berkshire HathawayLong rose 2.51% in its first session after results.
Occidental stock down 5.13%, BP down 4.98%, ConocoPhillips down 4.67%, Exxon down 4.05%, Halliburton down 4.31%, Chevron down 3.29%; Eni down 2.28%
Exports from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% in October, back to the rates seen before the war with Iran, and the market sold the stocks that had hit yearly highs on the scarcity premium: OccidentalLong down 5.13%, BPLong down 4.98%, ConocoPhillipsLong down 4.67%, HalliburtonLong down 4.31%, ExxonLong down 4.05%, ChevronLong down 3.29%, SLBLong down 2.66%. In Europe the European oil and gas ETFLong fell 2.33% and Eni stockLong 2.28%.
Milan stocks: Buzzi up 6.23%, Moncler up 3.85%, STMicroelectronics up 3.22%, Fineco up 2.94%, Campari up 2.63%, UniCredit up 1.85%; Eni down 2.28%
Buzzi stockLong gained 6.23%, the best stock on the Milan list with no company news, backed by the buyback started in October and by the rotation into building materials. Alongside, MonclerShort up 3.85% with European luxury, STMicroelectronicsShort up 3.22% on the day US chips fell, FinecoShort up 2.94%, CampariLong up 2.63%, Brunello CucinelliLong up 2.48%, UniCreditShort up 1.85%, Intesa SanpaoloShort up 1.09% with its quarterly results. Monte dei PaschiShort rose 1.33% · under a public tender offer by Intesa Sanpaolo at €1.25 and 1.6 Intesa Sanpaolo shares per share: the price follows the offer, not the results. Outside the index SafiloLong gained 5.13%.
Lower: EniLong down 2.28% with oil, TenarisLong down 1.68%, A2ALong down 1.54%, Telecom ItaliaShort down 1.08%, Banco BPMShort down 0.77%. FerrariShort rose 1.08% ahead of today's results.
European stocks: Safran up 4.53%, Hermès up 2.09%, LVMH up 1.72%, Diageo up 2.76%, Barclays up 2.18%, Infineon up 2.85%; Rheinmetall down 3.62%, AstraZeneca down 0.72%
SafranShort gained 4.53% after winning the inertial navigation contracts for France's nuclear deterrent, while RheinmetallShort lost 3.62%, below 1,000 euros, despite a new order for combat vehicles. In luxury HermèsShort rose 2.09% and LVMHShort 1.72%; in London DiageoLong gained 2.76% and BarclaysShort 2.18%. InfineonShort rose 2.85%. AstraZenecaLong fell 0.72% with no company news.
European indices: the CAC 40 ETF rises 1.14%, the FTSE MIB ETF 0.95%, the DAX ETF 0.64%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.33%
On Monday the CAC 40 ETFShort gained 1.14%, the FTSE MIBShort ETF 0.95%, the DAXShort ETF 0.64%, the FTSE 100Long ETF 0.33%. 68% of DAX companies stand above their 200-day average, against 32% of the whole German market: the index rests on its largest names.
On the Italian basket the model's short is up 4.13%, on sell since 31 August; the weekly level moved lower with the new week and the price sits 0.98% below it. On the German basket this week's candle is turning to buy: it is provisional.
This week's new buy signals: the changes in the first session, with Bayer reporting and energy below the entry price
Friday's cohort has 23 new buy signals, 15 tradable. In the first session none changed side on the daily and none dropped out; fourteen stand above the entry price, including BuzziLong, AbbottLong and HoneywellLong. Below, the changes: who slipped under entry and who reports.
Also slightly below entry: the European utilities ETF, Terna and Johnson & Johnson.
This week's earnings: Ferrari, AMD and Shopify on Tuesday 3 November, Qualcomm, Arm and Datadog on Wednesday 4, Buzzi and Siemens Healthineers on Thursday 5
30 companies in our universe report between today and Friday, among those we follow most closely. Today FerrariShort, AMDShort, ShopifyLong and BayerLong; Wednesday QualcommShort, ArmShort and DatadogLong; Thursday BuzziLong and Siemens HealthineersLong.
Tuesday 3 November
Ferrari Short
Advanced Micro Devices Short
Arista Networks Short
Astera Labs Short
Amgen Long
Booking Short
Shopify Long
Pfizer Long
Fiserv Long
Eaton Short
Bayer Long
Fortis Long
Wednesday 4 November
QUALCOMM Short
ARM Short
AppLovin Short
Datadog Long
Fastly Long
Uber Technologies Short
McDonald's Long
Novo Nordisk Short
Telecom Italia Short
Bayerische Motoren Werke Short
Thursday 5 November
Siemens Healthineers Long
Buzzi Long
Tenaris Long
Azimut Short
Airbnb Long
ConocoPhillips Long
Toyota Motor Long
Friday 6 November
Moderna Long
This week's economic calendar: US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November, euro area inflation on Wednesday 4, Bank of England on Thursday 5, US payrolls on Friday 6
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today the US midterm elections and job openings; Wednesday the euro area flash inflation estimate and the US services index; Thursday the Bank of England; Friday US payrolls.
Tuesday 3 November
16:00 · United States · September job openings high impact
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
16:00 · United States · October ISM services index high impact
Thursday 5 November
13:00 · United Kingdom · Bank of England: rate decision high impact
Friday 6 November
14:30 · United States · October payrolls and unemployment high impact
16:00 · United States · University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary high impact
Monday 9 November
08:00 · Germany · German September trade balance high impact
Tuesday 10 November
14:30 · United States · US October inflation high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY falls 0.48% and the long hangs in the balance, QQQ falls 1.36% and the short widens
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 0.48%, closing near the low, 3.78% below its all-time high. The new week started with the average of high, low and close below the Reversal Point that judges the long born in April: if Friday stays there, the weekly signal turns to sell.
QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 1.36%, also on the low, 10.72% below its record. It closed below the 200-day average and below the waiting zone of the latest analysis, and the model's short is up 4.04%, 5.48% below the weekly level. 63% of S&P 500 companies stand above the 200-day average, against 42% of the US stocks we follow.
The big picture: the rotation into cyclicals and the US vote
On Monday the US market sold technology and energy and bought consumer, financial and industrial stocks, on the back of a strong manufacturing reading. Europe took better advantage of it than America, because it has less technology and more banks. Our model is short the Nasdaq 100 and the Italian basket, long the S&P 500 with the week in progress below its level: Friday decides. Today the US vote and Ferrari's results.
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