ETF and stock technical analysis: STMicroelectronics stock jumps 7.11% in Milan, Snam 2.84%, AMD stock rises 5.45% after the Meta deal, Boeing stock falls 10.69%, Valero 9.24%
On Tuesday 27 October the US market split in two, and the indices only told half the story. On the Milan market the FTSE MIB ETF MIB rose 0.85%, closing on the high for a second gain in a row, on utilities and banks. In New York the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ gained 1.27% and the semiconductor ETF SOXX 3.91%, lifted by the AI infrastructure deal between AMD and Meta; the S&P 500 ETF SPY stopped at 0.56%, because Boeing lost 10.69% and refiners had their worst session since April 2025.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that made the session, with our model's position. In Milan STMicroelectronics stock jumped 7.11% on the eve of results, Snam rose 2.84% and Italgas 2.40%, while Eni fell 2.58%. On Wall Street AMD stock rose 5.45%, Marvell 4.19% and Broadcom 4.00%; Valero lost 9.24% and Marathon Petroleum 7.36% as Russian diesel heads back to the US market; SoFi climbed 13.42% on record results and Royal Caribbean 5.46%. In Europe HSBC fell 5.42% on revenue and Mercedes-Benz 3.86% after cutting its outlook on China.
Our model was on the right side of the heaviest falls. The short on Boeing is up 19.85% since 24 August, the one on HSBC 10.46%, the one on Mercedes 3.66%. On refiners the long stays wide even after the drop: Valero is up 109.06% since January, Marathon Petroleum 78.05% since May. Among the older shorts in the data-centre chain Applied Digital is up 40.99% and TeraWulf 40.23%, even after yesterday's bounce.
- ETF technical analysis: chips up, energy down
- Semiconductor stocks: AMD, Marvell, Broadcom, Meta
- Boeing and the refiners: Valero, Marathon, Exxon
- Earnings and software: SoFi, Royal Caribbean, Coca-Cola, Adobe
- Rare earths, nuclear and space, Tesla
- Milan: STMicroelectronics, Snam, Italgas, Eni
- Europe: HSBC, Mercedes-Benz, Infineon
- European indices: Milan rises again
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF rises 3.91%, the technology ETF 1.70%; the energy ETF loses 2.05%; in Europe technology and basic resources lead, autos and oil lag
An ETF is a listed fund that packs a whole basket of stocks into a single instrument, and it is the quickest way to see which sectors led the session. On Tuesday chips led, while energy and defensives held the market back.
In the US SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, rose 3.91%, closing near the high, XLK, the US technology ETF, 1.70%, XLY, the consumer discretionary ETF, 1.04%, and XLB, the materials ETF, 0.78%. Our model stays on sell on technology: XLK closed 2.88% below its weekly level. At the bottom XLE, the US energy ETF, fell 2.05%, but the long opened on 13 July is still up 18.26%. XLP, the consumer staples ETF, slipped 0.92% with Coca-Cola. XLV, the US health care ETF, held flat and is up 19.88% since 26 May. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, rose 1.07% and stays long with 1.20% of margin over its level.
In Europe EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology, the European technology ETF, rose 2.11%, EXV6, the basic resources ETF, 2.08%, and EXH4, industrials, 1.18%. The model is short the last two, which stay in profit at 6.20% and 3.03%. At the bottom EXHG, the European autos ETF, fell 1.06% with Mercedes: the short is up 3.28%. EXH9, the European utilities ETF, short since 10 August, has this week's candle turning to buy, 3.22% above its level: a provisional change that Friday's close will decide.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow, sits on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Semiconductor stocks: AMD up 5.45%, Marvell up 4.19%, Broadcom up 4.00%, Texas Instruments up 3.62%, Intel up 3.61%, Micron up 2.77%; Western Digital up 6.95%; Meta down 1.64%
AMD announced a broader AI infrastructure partnership with Meta and will invest one billion dollars in Meta's equity offering, according to the company's release. AMD stockShort rose 5.45% and pulled the sector with it: MarvellShort up 4.19%, BroadcomShort up 4.00%, Texas InstrumentsLong up 3.62%, IntelShort up 3.61%, MicronShort up 2.77%, QualcommShort up 2.54%, Applied MaterialsShort up 2.15%, NvidiaShort up 0.90%, and in Germany InfineonShort up 4.76%. Memory rose on higher quarterly expectations: Western DigitalShort up 6.95%, SandiskShort up 3.92%. MetaShort, on the other hand, lost 1.64%, closing near the low: the market rewarded the chip seller, not the buyer.
The compute providers hit on Monday by Musk's remarks on their debt also bounced: NebiusShort up 11.22%, Applied DigitalShort up 9.42%, CoreWeaveShort up 7.94%, TeraWulfShort up 5.68%. Super MicroShort rose 7.34% and DellShort 7.47% with the whole server chain.
Boeing stock down 10.69%; Valero down 9.24%, Marathon Petroleum down 7.36%, Exxon down 2.51%, ConocoPhillips down 2.25%, BP down 3.17%; Baker Hughes up 5.34%, GE Vernova up 4.67%
Boeing reported its third quarter with 737 production now stabilising in 2027, later than planned, according to the company's release. Boeing stockShort lost 10.69%, closing near the low on more than seven times its median volume: on its own it explains why the Dow stood still. The rest of industry went the other way: GE VernovaShort up 4.67%, CaterpillarShort up 3.06% on the eve of results, Quanta ServicesShort up 2.64%.
According to Benzinga refiners had their worst session since April 2025: the threat is not crude, but Russian diesel returning to the US market after the Trump-Putin deal, which squeezes refining margins. ValeroLong fell 9.24% and Marathon PetroleumLong 7.36%, both closing near the low. The integrated majors followed: ExxonLong down 2.51%, ConocoPhillipsLong down 2.25%, OccidentalLong down 2.09%, ChevronLong down 1.63%, BPLong down 3.17%, ShellLong down 1.80%. The only exception was Baker HughesShort, up 5.34% on rising revenue.
SoFi stock up 13.42%, Royal Caribbean up 5.46%, BigBear up 10.85%; Coca-Cola down 1.64%, Visa down 0.57%, S&P Global down 0.38%; Adobe down 3.97%, Accenture down 4.88%, CME down 4.73%
Tuesday's results rewarded the companies that raised their outlook. SoFiShort closed up 13.42% on record revenue and higher guidance, according to the company's release; Royal CaribbeanLong rose 5.46% on earnings above expectations, and travel went with it: United AirlinesShort up 3.99%, CarnivalLong up 3.28%, DeltaShort up 2.89%. BigBear.aiShort up 10.85%. Solid numbers from the big names closed lower: Coca-ColaLong down 1.64% despite raising guidance, VisaLong down 0.57% on record annual revenue, S&P GlobalLong down 0.38% on the day it beat expectations and launched a strategic review of Capital IQ. PayPalShort closed up 2.00%; RobinhoodShort rose 1.85% in the session, then slipped after the close on revenue just below expectations, according to CoinDesk. EnphaseShort down 1.98%.
Software paid for the rotation into chips: AdobeShort down 3.97%, IntuitLong down 3.37%, AutodeskLong down 2.95%, SalesforceShort down 2.71%, ServiceNowLong down 2.15% on the eve of results. AccentureLong lost 4.88% on downgrades citing valuation, and CME GroupLong 4.73%, a week after record results.
USA Rare Earth stock up 16.72%, MP Materials up 9.07%, Energy Fuels up 8.86%, NuScale up 8.16%, Intuitive Machines up 10.31%, Rocket Lab up 8.34%; Tesla up 4.04%; Enovix up 25.00%
The biggest percentage gains came from supply-security themes and data-centre power demand. In rare earths USA Rare EarthShort rose 16.72% and MP MaterialsShort 9.07%, with no news of their own; Energy FuelsShort rose 8.86% on public financing for a project in Australia. Uranium and small modular nuclear followed: Uranium EnergyShort up 8.06%, CamecoShort up 4.22%, NuScaleShort up 8.16%, Terrestrial EnergyShort up 11.90%. With them Bloom EnergyShort up 7.15%, VertivShort up 4.39%, FuelCellShort up 6.28%, BallardShort up 8.39%.
Space kept running: Intuitive MachinesShort up 10.31%, Rocket LabShort up 8.34%, AST SpaceMobileShort up 6.36%, Archer AviationShort up 7.36%; quantum computing moved as a block, RigettiShort up 8.74% and Quantum ComputingShort up 7.18%. Tesla stockLong rose 4.04% on the Cybercab. EnovixShort gained 25.00%, closing on the high, with no company news on the day.
Italian stocks: STMicroelectronics stock up 7.11%, Prysmian up 3.30%, Telecom Italia up 3.21%, Snam up 2.84%, Banco BPM up 2.64%, Italgas up 2.40%; Eni down 2.58%, Moncler down 2.05%
Milan posted its second gain in a row on utilities and banks. STMicroelectronics stockShort jumped 7.11% with the chip rally, the best among Italian stocks, on the eve of tomorrow's results; PrysmianShort up 3.30%, Telecom ItaliaShort up 3.21%, SnamLong up 2.84%, closing on the high, Banco BPMShort up 2.64%, ItalgasLong up 2.40%, SaipemLong up 1.93%, FincantieriShort up 1.77%, MediobancaShort up 1.73%, Poste ItalianeShort up 1.45%, UniCredit stockShort up 1.31%, Leonardo stockShort up 1.20%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort up 1.04%, EnelShort up 0.61%.
Lower were Eni stockLong, down 2.58%, the index's worst with the whole oil sector, the day after signing the contracts for the Cronos gas field off Cyprus, according to Milano Finanza; MonclerShort down 2.05%, CampariLong down 1.93%, FerrariShort down 1.09% with European autos, AvioShort down 1.08% after Monday's run.
European stocks: HSBC down 5.42%, Mercedes-Benz down 3.86%, BMW down 1.77%, adidas down 1.50%, TotalEnergies down 1.00%; Infineon up 4.76%, Rio Tinto up 2.51%, Barclays up 0.79%
HSBCShort lost 5.42%, the session's worst European bank: according to RTÉ third-quarter revenue fell short of expectations, with wealth growth stalling, despite pre-tax profit up 32%. The other UK banks held up: BarclaysShort up 0.79%, LloydsShort down 0.34%. Mercedes-BenzShort cut its 2026 outlook on weak China demand and higher costs, according to BusinessDay, and closed down 3.86%; with it BMWShort down 1.77% and adidasLong down 1.50%.
Higher were InfineonShort, up 4.76% with chips, and the miners, with Rio TintoShort up 2.51%. European oil followed the US: TotalEnergiesLong down 1.00%, ShellLong down 1.80%, BPLong down 3.17%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF rises 0.85%, the DAX ETF 0.69%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.57%; the FTSE 100 ETF loses 0.72%
On Tuesday the FTSE MIB ETFShort gained 0.85%, closing on the high, the DAXShort ETF 0.69%, the CAC 40Short ETF 0.57%; the FTSE 100Long ETF lost 0.72% with HSBC. The UK basket remains the only one on buy on the weekly, 1.64% above its level; the other three stay on sell, Milan 1.90% below its level, Paris 1.63%, Frankfurt 1.08%.
The model's short is up 4.78% on the Italian basket, on sell since 31 August, and 5.78% on the French one, since 24 August. The indices are holding up better than their markets: 65% of DAX companies sit above the 200-day average, against 33% of the whole German market; on the FTSE MIB it is 51%, against 40% of the Italian market.
This week's new buy signals: EssilorLuxottica, Snam, Italgas, CSX and Regeneron rise; Lockheed gives back part of its run; Spotify, Fiserv, PepsiCo and London Stock Exchange fall
The weekend analysis published 29 new buy signals, born at the 23 October close: 21 tradable, across defensives, health care, financials, utilities and defence, from NikeLong to NexiLong, from Lockheed MartinLong to AstraZenecaLong.
From Tuesday to Saturday this card reports only what changes. Tuesday belonged to the Europeans: EssilorLuxottica rose 3.89% and moved back above its entry, Snam and Italgas closed near the high with Italian utilities. Lockheed gave back part of Monday's run; Spotify, Fiserv, PepsiCo and London Stock Exchange fell, and on Fiserv and PepsiCo the daily turned to sell.
This week's earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Stellantis and Mercedes on Wednesday 28, Amazon, Eli Lilly and STMicroelectronics on Thursday 29, Exxon, Chevron and Intesa Sanpaolo on Friday 30, Apple on Monday 2 November, AMD on Tuesday 3
68 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today MicrosoftLong, AlphabetShort, ServiceNowLong, StellantisShort, Mercedes-BenzShort and Deutsche BankShort; Thursday 29 AmazonShort, Eli LillyLong, MastercardLong, CoinbaseShort, STMicroelectronicsShort, PrysmianShort and ItalgasLong; Friday 30 ExxonLong, ChevronLong, AstraZenecaLong and Intesa SanpaoloShort; Monday 2 November AppleLong and PalantirLong; Tuesday 3 AMDShort and FerrariShort. Dates from the companies' calendars.
Wednesday 28 October
Microsoft Long
Alphabet Short
ServiceNow Long
GE Vernova Short
Vertiv Short
Stellantis Milano Short
Deutsche Bank Short
BASF Long
Mercedes-Benz Short
GSK Long
Dassault Systemes Long
Fortinet Long
eBay Long
Ford Motor Short
American Water Works Long
Thursday 29 October
Amazon Short
Eli Lilly Long
Mastercard Long
Merck Long
Caterpillar Short
Intel Short
Coinbase Global Short
Strategy Long
Quanta Services Short
Starbucks Long
First Solar Short
Roblox Long
Rivian Automotive Short
Sandisk Short
STMicroelectronics Short
Prysmian Short
Amplifon Long
Italgas Long
adidas Long
Shell Long
TotalEnergies Long
Vale Short
Friday 30 October
Exxon Mobil Long
Chevron Long
AbbVie Long
BP Long
AstraZeneca Long
Intesa Sanpaolo Short
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Long
Cameco Short
Monday 2 November
Apple Long
Roku Long
Tuesday 3 November
Advanced Micro Devices Short
Arista Networks Short
Astera Labs Short
Amgen Long
Booking Short
Shopify Long
Pfizer Long
Ferrari Short
Fiserv Long
Super Micro Computer Short
Wednesday 4 November
QUALCOMM Short
ARM Short
Uber Technologies Short
Datadog Long
McDonald's Long
MercadoLibre Long
Iveco Long
Tenaris Long
Telecom Italia Short
BPER Banca Short
This week's economic calendar: UK budget and the Fed on Wednesday 28, US GDP and the ECB on Thursday 29, Bank of Japan and euro area GDP on Friday 30, euro area inflation on Wednesday 4 November
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today the UK government's Autumn Budget and the Federal Reserve decision; tomorrow the first estimate of third-quarter US GDP and the PCE prices from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the ECB; on Friday the Bank of Japan, Italy's GDP and inflation from Istat and Eurostat's euro area GDP; on Tuesday 3 November the US midterm elections; on Wednesday 4 the flash estimate of euro area inflation.
Wednesday 28 October
13:30 · United Kingdom · The UK government's Autumn Budget medium impact
19:00 · United States · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Thursday 29 October
13:30 · United States · Third-quarter GDP, first estimate, and in the same hour September income, spending and PCE prices high impact
14:15 · Euro area · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Friday 30 October
04:00 · Japan · Bank of Japan: rate decision high impact
10:00 · Italy · Third-quarter GDP, preliminary estimate, and an hour later October inflation medium impact
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area third-quarter GDP, flash estimate high impact
Saturday 31 October
02:30 · China · Official October manufacturing PMI medium impact
Monday 2 November
15:00 · United States · October ISM manufacturing index medium impact
Tuesday 3 November
16:00 · United States · September job openings medium impact
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
15:00 · United States · October ISM services index medium impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY rises 0.56% and the long stays 1.36% above its level, QQQ rises 1.27% but stays on sell
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.56% on 28.6 million shares, closing in the upper part of the range, 1.53% below its all-time high and right on its daily Inversion Point. The long opened in April is up 13.28% and sits 1.36% above its weekly level. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained 1.27% on 30.9 million shares, 5.45% below its record and 2.76% below its weekly level: it left the waiting zone through the top, and the short opened with the 16 October candle is down 1.6%.
The phases remain opposite. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Inversion Point, which protects 11.7% from the entry. On QQQ the price closed above the daily Inversion Point, but the session's average stayed below it, and the daily has not turned yet.
The big picture: a rally that left many behind
On Tuesday the indices rose, but inside the US market half the stocks fell. Chips ran on the AMD-Meta deal, along with rare earths, nuclear and space; Boeing, refiners, software and defensives lost ground. In Milan utilities and banks brought a second gain in a row, with Eni going the other way. The Fed and results from Microsoft and Alphabet come tonight, the ECB and Amazon tomorrow, and Friday closes both the week and the month.
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The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
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