ETF and stock technical analysis: AI sends the bill to Alphabet and ServiceNow, Amazon stock drops 7% after hours; in Milan Prysmian rises 6.64% and Campari falls 6.64%
Today's technical analysis starts from New York, where the market sent artificial intelligence the bill on Thursday 29 October. The ECB held rates and US third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised pace, above forecasts, but the indices only looked at earnings: Alphabet stock lost 12.64% on its capital spending plan, ServiceNow 26.95%, the worst stock in the S&P 500. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ fell 1.42%, the S&P 500 ETF SPY only 0.38%, because the money leaving tech went into healthcare, real estate, staples and banks.
After the close the theme carried on: Amazon stock lost 7.3% in late trading as free cash flow shrank under its spending on computing capacity, and Intel lost 23% after warning that the PC slowdown will last at least until mid-2027. Today the week and the month close together, and Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Intesa Sanpaolo report.
On the Milan market, the Italian stock market followed Europe rather than Wall Street: the FTSE MIB ETF MIB rose 0.53%, closing on its high. Prysmian stock jumped 6.64%, the best of the Italian stocks, after its best quarter ever and a second guidance upgrade, while Campari fell 6.64% on weaker US sales. Frankfurt and Paris did better, with adidas and Dassault Systèmes up more than 5%.
Our model was on the right side of most of these moves. The short on Alphabet is worth 21.09% since 8 June, the one on Caterpillar 26.46%, the one on Amazon 5.06% before the late move. The healthcare longs had their day: AbbVie up 33.56%, Gilead up 23.33%. Software took the hit: on ServiceNow and Fortinet the weekly candle in progress is turning to sell, and tonight's close will tell whether the change holds.
- ETF technical analysis: healthcare up, tech down
- Commodities: oil, gold, copper and gas
- Big tech: Alphabet, Amazon, Intel
- Software: ServiceNow, Fortinet, Salesforce
- Healthcare and defensives: Eli Lilly, Gilead, Caterpillar
- Milan: Prysmian, Campari, Buzzi
- Europe: Dassault Systèmes, adidas, Lloyds
- European indices: Frankfurt and Paris up
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the US healthcare ETF rises 2.40%, real estate 2.21%, utilities 1.53%; tech and communications fall; in Europe autos and industrials gain
An ETF is a listed fund that packs a whole basket of stocks into a single instrument: healthcare ETFs, utilities ETFs and technology ETFs are the quickest way to see where the money went. On Thursday it left technology and moved into defensive sectors.
In the US XLV, the US healthcare ETF, rose 2.40%, XLRE, real estate, 2.21% closing near its high, XLP, consumer staples, 1.54%, XLU, the US utilities ETF, 1.53%, XLF, financials, 1.44%. At the bottom XLK, the US technology ETF, fell 1.18% and XLC, communications, 1.87%. Our model is long every sector that gained: healthcare is up 23.13% since 26 May, 5.91% above its weekly level. On technology it is short, with the price 3.43% below the level. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, long since July, has this week's candle turning to sell, 5.30% below the level.
In Europe EXHG, the European autos ETF, rose 1.48%, EXH4, industrials, 1.38%, EXV4, healthcare, 1.23%, EXH1, oil, 1.19%: the long on European oil is up 10.88%. EXH9, the European utilities ETF, short since August, has this week's candle 3.96% above the level: the switch to buy is provisional until tonight's close.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Commodities: WTI crude, gold, copper and TTF gas, with the daily, weekly and monthly change and our model's weekly and monthly signal
WTI crude oil: down 0.76% on the day, down 1.23% on the week, up 12.81% on the month. Weekly on buy since 20 July, 13.44% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2026.
Gold: down 1.15% on the day, up 0.62% on the week, down 3.29% on the month. Weekly on sell since 28 September, 5.87% below the level; monthly on sell since June 2026.
Copper: down 1.03% on the day, up 1.46% on the week, down 0.29% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 April, 2.22% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2025.
TTF gas: down 2.78% on the day, up 4.33% on the week, up 35.33% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 July, 23.69% above the level; monthly on buy since January 2026.
Alphabet stock down 12.64%, Marvell down 13.24%, Micron down 4.98%, Amazon down 4.25% and 7.3% after hours, Intel down 23% after results; Meta up 1.96%, Apple up 1.48%
AlphabetShort lost 12.64%: its third quarter had beaten expectations, but the spending plan on computing capacity scared buyers. With it MarvellShort fell 13.24% on talks to buy Lumentum, read as dilutive, MicronShort 4.98% closing near its low after Samsung's results, NvidiaShort 0.80%. Against the tide MetaShort rose 1.96% and AppleLong 1.48% ahead of Monday's results; MicrosoftLong barely moved, down 0.16%.
After the close AmazonShort, already down 4.25% in the session, reported sales up 12% to $201.9 billion, its highest operating margin ever at 13.9% and cloud growth of 39%, according to the company's release; it confirmed about $220 billion of capital spending in 2026, and the stock lost 7.3% in late trading. IntelShort posted revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% and above its own guidance, but its chief financial officer sees the PC slowdown lasting at least through the first half of next year: down 23% after the close.
ServiceNow stock down 26.95%, Fortinet down 20.09%, Salesforce down 4.63%, Palo Alto down 3.53%, Zscaler down 3.12%, CrowdStrike down 2.07%; Roblox down 16.6% after hours
ServiceNowLong closed down 26.95%, on its low, on volume more than five times the median. Its third quarter showed revenue of $4.1 billion, up 20.5%, and higher subscription guidance, according to the company's release: the market looked at future contract growth and at the risk that AI replaces part of the software. FortinetLong lost another 20.09% on a second day of selling after results, but closed near the session high. The wave took the whole group: SalesforceShort down 4.63% after a defence acquisition, Palo Alto NetworksShort 3.53%, ZscalerLong 3.12%, CrowdStrikeLong 2.07%. After the close RobloxLong lost 16.6% on its results.
Eli Lilly stock up 6.63%, Gilead up 4.03%, Merck up 3.83%, Quanta Services up 4.66%, Mastercard up 4.16%, Home Depot up 3.60%, Visa up 2.48%; Caterpillar down 9.25%
Eli LillyLong gained 6.63% on quarterly revenue of about $24.4 billion, up 39%, and higher full-year guidance, according to the company's release. Healthcare followed: GileadLong up 4.03% closing on its high, MerckLong 3.83%, AmgenLong 1.97%, AbbVieLong 1.68% ahead of today's results. Defensives and payments joined in: MastercardLong up 4.16% on its results, VisaLong 2.48%, Home DepotLong 3.60% at its high, WalmartLong 2.09%, Procter & GambleLong 1.47%. Quanta ServicesShort rose 4.66% with higher guidance.
On the other side CaterpillarShort lost 9.25% despite a record $78 billion order backlog: the market looked at margins.
Italian stock market: Prysmian stock up 6.64%, Leonardo up 3.92%, Buzzi up 3.44%, STMicroelectronics up 1.87%, Ferrari up 1.43%, Telecom Italia up 1.41%; Campari down 6.64%, Stellantis down 1.41%, Terna down 1.37%
Prysmian stockShort rose 6.64%, the strongest of Milan's large-cap stocks and closing near its high, after the best quarter in its history: adjusted EBITDA of €851 million, up 32%, 2026 guidance raised for the second time and its 2028 targets reached two years early, according to the company's release. With it LeonardoShort rose 3.92%, BuzziShort 3.44% closing on its high, STMicroelectronicsShort 1.87%, FerrariShort 1.43% ahead of Tuesday's results, Telecom ItaliaShort 1.41%.
CampariLong lost 6.64%: nine-month sales grew and the full-year guidance was confirmed, according to the company's release, but US sales are held back by competition and supply problems. Also lower were StellantisShort, down 1.41% after Wednesday's 15% jump, TernaShort 1.37%, SnamLong 0.94%, MonclerShort 0.82% and GeneraliShort 0.56%, both near their lows. Banks were flat: UniCreditShort down 0.05%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 0.45% ahead of today's results. EniLong unchanged.
European stocks: Dassault Systèmes up 6.32%, adidas up 5.76%, Bayer up 4.19%, Airbus up 2.30%; Lloyds down 5.04%
Dassault SystèmesLong gained 6.32%, closing near its high, with quarterly growth and margins above expectations and higher 2026 guidance; adidasLong rose 5.76% on record quarterly sales and operating profit. With them BayerShort rose 4.19% at its high and AirbusShort 2.30%.
In London LloydsShort lost 5.04% despite a sharp rise in quarterly profit: the market looked at the comment on 2027 net interest margin, held back by competition.
European indices: the DAX ETF rises 1.33%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.98%, the FTSE MIB ETF 0.53%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.25%
On Thursday the DAX ETFShort gained 1.33%, the CAC 40 ETFShort 0.98%, the FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.53% closing on its high, the FTSE 100 ETFLong 0.25%. The UK basket is still the only one on a weekly buy, 1.96% above the level; the German one closed 0.46% above its level, but the week's average is still below; Milan and Paris remain below, 1.23% and 0.86%.
The model's short is up 3.92% on the Italian basket, on sell since 31 August, and 4.85% on the French one; on the German one it is down 2.87%. The indices hold up better than their markets: 68% of DAX companies are above the 200-day average, against 33% of the whole German market; on the FTSE MIB it is 51%, against 40% of the list.
This week's new buy signals: US real estate and consumer discretionary turn back to buy on the daily, Home Depot and Nike rise, London Stock Exchange at its high
The weekend analysis published 29 new buy signals, born on the 23 October close: 21 actionable, across defensives, healthcare, financials, utilities and defence, from NikeLong to NexiLong, from Lockheed MartinLong to AstraZenecaLong.
From Tuesday to Saturday this card only reports what changes. On Thursday the rotation into defensives helped the cohort: on the US real estate and consumer discretionary ETFs the daily turned back to buy, Home Depot and London Stock Exchange closed on their highs, Nike and AstraZeneca rose.
This week's earnings: Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca and Intesa Sanpaolo on Friday 30, Apple and Palantir on Monday 2 November, AMD and Ferrari on Tuesday 3, Toyota and Buzzi on Thursday 5
37 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today ExxonLong, ChevronLong, AbbVieLong, AstraZenecaLong, Intesa SanpaoloShort, ItalgasLong and CapgeminiLong revenue; on Monday 2 November AppleLong and PalantirLong; on Tuesday 3 AMDShort and FerrariShort; on Thursday 5 Siemens HealthineersLong and BuzziShort. Dates from the companies' calendars.
Friday 30 October
Exxon Mobil Long
Chevron Long
AbbVie Long
BP Long
AstraZeneca Long
Intesa Sanpaolo Short
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Long
Deutsche Boerse Long
Italgas Long
Capgemini Long
Monday 2 November
Apple Long
Roku Long
Berkshire Hathaway Long
Tuesday 3 November
Advanced Micro Devices Short
Arista Networks Short
Astera Labs Short
Amgen Long
Booking Short
Shopify Long
Pfizer Long
Ferrari Short
Fiserv Long
Duolingo Long
Wednesday 4 November
ARM Short
McDonald's Long
MercadoLibre Long
Iveco Long · under a public tender offer by Tata Motors at €14.40 per share: the price follows the offer, not the results
Telecom Italia Short
BPER Banca Short
AppLovin Short
Thursday 5 November
Airbnb Long
Toyota Motor Long
Siemens Healthineers Long
Buzzi Short
Tenaris Long
ConocoPhillips Long
This week's economic calendar: Italian and euro area GDP on Friday 30, US ISM manufacturing on Monday 2 November, euro area inflation on Wednesday 4, Bank of England on Thursday 5
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today Italy's GDP and inflation from Istat and Eurostat's flash estimate of euro area GDP; on Monday the US manufacturing index; on Tuesday 3 November the US midterm elections; on Wednesday 4 the flash estimate of euro area inflation; on Thursday 5 the Bank of England. From Sunday daylight saving time ends in the US too, and US times go back to a six-hour gap.
Friday 30 October
10:00 · Italy · Third-quarter GDP, preliminary estimate, and an hour later October inflation medium impact
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area third-quarter GDP, flash estimate high impact
Saturday 31 October
02:30 · China · Official October manufacturing PMI medium impact
Monday 2 November
16:00 · United States · October ISM manufacturing index medium impact
Tuesday 3 November
16:00 · United States · September job openings medium impact
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
16:00 · United States · October ISM services index medium impact
Thursday 5 November
13:00 · United Kingdom · Bank of England: rate decision high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY loses 0.38% and the long stays 1.32% above its level, QQQ loses 1.42% and stays on sell
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 0.38% on 40.3 million shares, closing in the upper part of its range, 1.57% below its all-time high. The long born in April is up 13.23%, 1.32% above the weekly level. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 1.42% on 38.3 million shares, 6.23% below its record, 3.66% below its weekly level.
The phases remain opposite. SPY has passed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point, which sits above its entry price. On QQQ the short born on the 16 October candle was down 0.78% at the close, but the after-hours drop in Amazon and Intel put it back in profit, with the price back inside the model's waiting zone.
The big picture: the bill for artificial intelligence
On Thursday the market sold those spending too much on computing capacity and those at risk of being replaced by it, and bought healthcare, staples and banks. The S&P 500 held, the Nasdaq 100 did not; Europe followed its own earnings, and in Milan Prysmian and Campari split the session. After the close Amazon and Intel extended the theme. Today the week and the month close.
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