ETF and stock technical analysis: the Fed holds rates, Alphabet stock falls 10% after hours on results; in Milan Stellantis stock jumps 15.38%, Oracle 10.73%
On Wednesday 28 October the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, with two votes for a hike, and Chair Warsh did not confirm the December increase the market is pricing in: equity volatility fell 3.5% and the indices closed higher. In New York the S&P 500 ETF SPY gained 0.34%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ 0.60% and the semiconductor ETF SOXX 2.13%. On the Milan market the FTSE MIB ETF MIB rose 0.41%, closing on the high for a third gain in a row, with a single name doing the work.
The second theme came after the bell. Alphabet, which had closed up 1.34%, reported third-quarter revenue up 25% to $127.6 billion with cloud more than doubling, according to the company; the market looked at AI spending, and in after-hours trading Alphabet stock lost 9.97%. Microsoft gained 2.9% the same evening.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that made the session, with our model's position. In Milan Stellantis stock jumped 15.38% on confirmed guidance, Lottomatica rose 3.36% and Eni 1.64%, while Telecom Italia fell 1.51%. On Wall Street Oracle stock rose 10.73% on its 2029 cash flow target, the best day for Oracle stocks in five months, and Vertiv 16.48% on 61% revenue growth; Enphase lost 16.03%. After the close software followed Alphabet: Fortinet lost 25.7% and ServiceNow 18.1%.
Our model was on the right side of most of these moves. The short on Vertiv is still up 23.05% since 26 May, even after yesterday's jump; the one on Enphase 54.22%, the one on Alphabet 9.67% before last night's drop. Microsoft stays long since 27 July, up 14.26%. On Stellantis the short, still up 27.35%, closed 2.87% above this week's level: Friday's close will say whether it holds.
- ETF technical analysis: chips and autos up, utilities down
- The Fed and Alphabet results; Oracle, Vertiv, Microsoft
- Software: Fortinet, ServiceNow, Palo Alto
- Semiconductor stocks: Sandisk, Micron, CoreWeave
- Energy and others: Enphase, Baker Hughes, Beam
- Milan: Stellantis, Lottomatica, Eni, Telecom Italia
- Europe: Deutsche Bank, GSK, Dassault Systèmes
- European indices: Milan rises again
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF rises 2.13%, the tech ETF 0.80%; US utilities and real estate fall; in Europe autos and oil lead
An ETF is a listed fund that packs a whole basket of stocks into one instrument: the quickest way to see which sectors led the session. On Wednesday chips and European autos led, utilities and real estate lagged.
In the US SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, rose 2.13%, closing near its high, XLK, the US technology ETF, 0.80%, XLF, financials, 0.45%, XLE, the US energy ETF, 0.35%. Our model stays on sell for technology: XLK closed 2.28% below its weekly level. At the bottom XLU, the US utilities ETF, down 0.84%, closing near its low, XLRE, real estate, down 0.73%, and XLC, communications, down 0.42%. Energy remains the widest long, up 18.67% since 13 July, with healthcare's XLV up 20.24%.
In Europe EXHG, the European autos ETF, rose 1.28% with Stellantis, and EXH1, oil, 1.06%: the long on European oil is up 9.58%. EXV6, basic resources, fell 0.81%, with the short up 6.96%. EXH9, the European utilities ETF, short since 10 August, has this week's candle turning to buy, 3.61% above the level: a provisional change, decided by Friday's close.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Oracle stock up 10.73%, Vertiv up 16.48%, Quanta Services up 4.85%, Eaton up 2.26%; Alphabet up 1.34% in the session and down 10% after hours; Microsoft up 2.9% after results
The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%, by 10 votes to 2: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point hike, according to the central bank's statement. Chair Warsh described strong growth and inflation above target for almost six years, but did not confirm the December hike: the market read it as relief, with equity volatility down 3.5%.
At its 28 October Investor Day OracleShort guided to positive free cash flow from the second half of fiscal 2028 and at least $30 billion in fiscal 2029, when data center spending steps down, according to the company: the stock closed up 10.73%. VertivShort rose 16.48% on third-quarter sales of $4.31 billion, up 61%, and raised guidance, according to its SEC filing; Quanta ServicesShort followed, up 4.85%, with EatonShort up 2.26%.
After the close the results did the talking. AlphabetShort, up 1.34% in the session, reported revenue up 25% and cloud doubling, but the market looked at AI spending and the stock lost 9.97% in after-hours trading. MicrosoftLong, flat in the session, rose 2.9% after the close on capex below expectations. AmazonShort rose 0.59% ahead of tonight's results; MetaShort fell 1.24%, NvidiaShort 1.17%, AppleLong 0.94%, closing near its low.
Fortinet stock down 5.90% in the session and down 25.7% after hours, ServiceNow down 3.00% and 18.1% after; Palo Alto down 1.79%, Take-Two down 2.98%, Duolingo down 4.32%, Spotify down 3.07%
FortinetLong reported third-quarter revenue up 20% to $2.08 billion and raised its full-year guidance, according to the company: the stock closed down 5.90%, near its low, and lost 25.7% after hours. ServiceNowLong closed down 3.00% and gave up 18.1% after the close, despite results above expectations. The wave hit cybersecurity and applications: Palo Alto NetworksShort down 1.79%, CloudflareShort down 2.77%, Take-TwoShort down 2.98%, DuolingoLong down 4.32%, SpotifyLong down 3.07%. Going the other way ZoomShort up 2.94%, AccentureLong up 3.50% with its chief executive buying shares, AdobeShort up 0.56%, SalesforceShort up 0.51%.
Semiconductor stocks: Sandisk up 7.66%, Micron up 5.86%, Applied Materials up 5.07%, Arm up 4.10%, Western Digital up 4.08%, AMD up 3.24%; CoreWeave up 7.32%, Nebius up 6.96%
SK Hynix's results, read as confirmation of the memory cycle, revived the sector: SandiskShort up 7.66%, MicronShort up 5.86%, Applied MaterialsShort up 5.07%, ArmShort up 4.10%, Western DigitalShort up 4.08%, CredoShort up 3.74%, Astera LabsShort up 3.67%, MarvellShort up 3.32%, AMDShort up 3.24%, BroadcomShort up 2.77%, Super MicroShort up 2.05%. Compute providers ran on the Fed: CoreWeaveShort up 7.32%, NebiusShort up 6.96%, IRENShort up 5.10%, Applied DigitalShort up 4.51%, all closing near their highs; after the close they gave back about 5% as Microsoft's capex came in below expectations.
Enphase stock down 16.03%, SolarEdge down 8.30%, Baker Hughes down 7.36%, FMC down 5.10%; Beam Therapeutics up 15.58%, Hims & Hers up 5.01%
EnphaseShort lost 16.03%, at a six-year low after a missed quarter and two downgrades, and dragged SolarEdgeShort down 8.30% ahead of its own results. Baker HughesShort closed down 7.36%, near its low, on third-quarter revenue of $8.0 billion and net income of $411 million weighed by the costs of the Chart acquisition, according to the company. FMCShort fell 5.10% on a revenue cut. In healthcare Beam TherapeuticsShort jumped 15.58% on early clinical data, Hims & HersShort rose 5.01%.
Milan market: Stellantis stock up 15.38%, Lottomatica up 3.36%, Eni up 1.64%, Prysmian up 1.36%, Banco BPM up 1.25%; Telecom Italia down 1.51%, Inwit down 1.24%, Poste down 1.10%
The Milan market posted a third gain in a row, but the session had one name. Stellantis stockShort jumped 15.38%, closing near its high, on an improving third quarter, a net loss cut by 90% and confirmed 2026 guidance, including positive industrial free cash flow in 2027, according to the company. Beyond Stellantis LottomaticaShort rose 3.36% ahead of results, Eni stockLong 1.64% with oil, PrysmianShort 1.36% on the eve of results, Banco BPMShort 1.25%, TenarisLong 1.30%, UniCreditShort 0.30%.
Down were Telecom ItaliaShort 1.51%, InwitLong 1.24%, Poste ItalianeShort 1.10%, closing on its low, GeneraliShort 0.72%, Monte dei PaschiShort 0.71%, CampariLong 0.67% after nine-month sales, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 0.53%. Little moved were EnelShort, STMicroelectronicsShort, reporting today, and LeonardoShort.
European stocks: Deutsche Bank up 3.97%, Siemens Energy up 3.64%, Legrand up 2.67%, Lloyds up 1.71%, Barclays up 1.62%; GSK down 4.78%, Dassault Systèmes down 4.50%, EssilorLuxottica down 2.26%, Unilever down 2.05%
Deutsche BankShort gained 3.97%, the best in the DAX, on a record third-quarter net profit of €1.9 billion, according to the bank; LloydsShort rose 1.71% and BarclaysShort 1.62%. Siemens EnergyShort up 3.64%, LegrandShort up 2.67%.
On the other side GSKLong lost 4.78%, the worst in the FTSE 100: specialty medicines grew, vaccines disappointed, according to the company's filed results. Dassault SystèmesLong fell 4.50% on a quarter above expectations, closing near its low; UnileverLong down 2.05%; luxury lower with EssilorLuxotticaLong down 2.26% and KeringShort down 1.62%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF rises 0.41%, the DAX ETF 0.41%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.01%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.06%
On Wednesday the FTSE MIB ETFShort gained 0.41%, closing on its high, the DAX ETFShort 0.41%; the CAC 40 ETFShort, up 0.01%, and the FTSE 100 ETFLong, up 0.06%, were flat. The UK basket remains the only one on buy on the weekly, 1.71% above the level; the other three stay on sell, Frankfurt 0.76% below the level, Milan 1.62%, Paris 1.62%.
The model's short is up 4.43% on the Italian basket, on sell since 31 August, and 5.77% on the French one. The indices are holding up better than their markets: 65% of DAX companies are above the 200-day average, against 33% of the whole German market; on the FTSE MIB it is 51%, against 41% of the Italian list.
This week's new buy signals: GSK, Spotify, EssilorLuxottica and Toyota fall, the daily turns to sell on four names; E.ON rises
The weekend analysis published 29 new buy signals, born on the 23 October close: 21 tradeable, across defensives, healthcare, financials, utilities and defense, from NikeLong to NexiLong, from Lockheed MartinLong to AstraZenecaLong.
From Tuesday to Saturday this table reports only what changes. On Wednesday GSK fell on vaccines, Spotify closed near its low, EssilorLuxottica went back below its entry with luxury; on GSK, Spotify, Toyota and the US real estate ETF the daily turned to sell. E.ON was the best of the cohort.
This week's earnings: Amazon, Eli Lilly, Mastercard and STMicroelectronics on Thursday 29, Exxon, Chevron, Intesa Sanpaolo and Capgemini on Friday 30, Apple and Palantir on Monday 2 November, AMD on Tuesday 3
59 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today AmazonShort, Eli LillyLong, MastercardLong, CoinbaseShort, STMicroelectronicsShort, PrysmianShort, ShellLong and ItalgasLong; Friday 30 ExxonLong, ChevronLong, AstraZenecaLong, Intesa SanpaoloShort and CapgeminiLong; Monday 2 November AppleLong and PalantirLong; Tuesday 3 AMDShort and FerrariShort. Dates from the companies' calendars.
Thursday 29 October
Amazon Short
Eli Lilly Long
Mastercard Long
Merck Long
Caterpillar Short
Intel Short
Coinbase Global Short
Strategy Long
Quanta Services Short
Starbucks Long
First Solar Short
Roblox Long
Rivian Automotive Short
Sandisk Short
STMicroelectronics Short
Prysmian Short
Amplifon Long
Italgas Long
adidas Long
Shell Long
TotalEnergies Long
Vale Short
Friday 30 October
Exxon Mobil Long
Chevron Long
AbbVie Long
BP Long
AstraZeneca Long
Intesa Sanpaolo Short
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Long
Cameco Short
Capgemini Long
Monday 2 November
Apple Long
Roku Long
Tuesday 3 November
Advanced Micro Devices Short
Arista Networks Short
Astera Labs Short
Amgen Long
Booking Short
Shopify Long
Pfizer Long
Ferrari Short
Fiserv Long
Super Micro Computer Short
Duolingo Long
Wednesday 4 November
QUALCOMM Short
ARM Short
Uber Technologies Short
Datadog Long
McDonald's Long
MercadoLibre Long
Iveco Long · under a public tender offer by Tata Motors at €14.40 per share: the price follows the offer, not the results
Tenaris Long
Telecom Italia Short
BPER Banca Short
Thursday 5 November
Airbnb Long
Toyota Motor Long
Siemens Healthineers Long
Buzzi Short
This week's economic calendar: US GDP and the ECB on Thursday 29, Bank of Japan and euro area GDP on Friday 30, euro area inflation on Wednesday 4 November, Bank of England on Thursday 5
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP and PCE prices from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the ECB; on Friday the Bank of Japan, Italian GDP and inflation from Istat and euro area GDP from Eurostat; on Tuesday 3 November the US midterm elections; on Wednesday 4 the flash estimate of euro area inflation; on Thursday 5 the Bank of England.
Thursday 29 October
13:30 · United States · Third-quarter GDP, first estimate, and in the same hour September income, spending and PCE prices high impact
14:15 · Euro area · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Friday 30 October
04:00 · Japan · Bank of Japan: rate decision high impact
10:00 · Italy · Third-quarter GDP, preliminary estimate, and an hour later October inflation medium impact
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area third-quarter GDP, flash estimate high impact
Saturday 31 October
02:30 · China · Official October manufacturing PMI medium impact
Monday 2 November
15:00 · United States · October ISM manufacturing index medium impact
Tuesday 3 November
16:00 · United States · September job openings medium impact
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
15:00 · United States · October ISM services index medium impact
Thursday 5 November
13:00 · United Kingdom · Bank of England: rate decision high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY rises 0.34% and the long stays 1.71% above its level, QQQ rises 0.60% but stays on sell
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.34% on 30.1 million shares, closing in the upper part of its range, 1.19% below its all-time high. The daily turned back to buy, and the long born in April is up 13.67%, 1.71% above the weekly level. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained 0.60% on 30.5 million shares, 4.88% below its record: here too the daily turned back to buy, but the weekly stays on sell, 2.27% below the level.
The phases remain opposite. SPY has crossed all three profit-taking windows and is managed with the weekly Reversal Point. On QQQ the short born on the 16 October candle is down 2.23%, and Alphabet's after-hours drop weighs right on the Nasdaq 100 basket.
The big picture: the market rewards cash
On Wednesday the Fed held rates and the indices rose, led by memory and compute providers. The lesson of the day came from Oracle in the session and from Alphabet after the close: those who show the road to cash are rewarded, those who raise spending without showing it are punished. In Milan Stellantis made the session on its own. The ECB and Amazon's results come today, and Friday closes both the week and the month.
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The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
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