ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 8.24%, Intel stock plunges 28.58% and Reddit stock 29.22%; in Milan Amplifon stock loses 14.50%
On Friday 30 October US technology paid the bill for the whole week, and the month ended with a heavy change of signal: ETF technical analysis shows it sector by sector. The semiconductor ETF SOXX lost 8.24%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ 3.47% and the S&P 500 ETF SPY 1.77%, while the energy ETF XLE gained 1.91% and the European healthcare ETF EXV4 2.28%. Money changed sectors and stayed in the market.
Intel stock Intel fell 28.58%, its biggest drop in more than forty years, after forecasting a long stretch of weakness in personal computers. Reddit lost 29.22%, Roblox 18.05% and AMD 10.88%, on results or in the wake of the sector. On the Milan market the FTSE MIB ETF MIB lost 1.15%: Amplifon stock fell 14.50% despite higher profit and STMicroelectronics stock 5.27%, with Italian October inflation at 5.4% against the 4.6% expected.
Our model ends the week with news on Milan: the Italian basket has turned to sell on the monthly as well, after almost four years on the buy side. On SPY the weekly buy signal survived by a whisker, and on QQQ the sell widened. The short on Amazon stands at plus 6.40%, the one on Intel at plus 26.81%; the long on Regeneron at plus 15.26%, with healthcare among the strongest sectors of the month.
This week the companies reporting are the very ones that paid in advance on Friday: Apple and Palantir tonight, AMD and Ferrari tomorrow, Qualcomm on Wednesday.
- ETF technical analysis: energy up, chips down
- Commodities: oil, gold, copper and gas
- Semiconductors: Intel, AMD, Qualcomm
- Software and consumer: Reddit, Roblox, Coinbase
- Healthcare and energy: Regeneron, Exxon, Chevron
- Milan stocks: Amplifon, STMicroelectronics, Moncler
- Europe: AstraZeneca, Sanofi, Infineon
- European indices: Milan on sell for the month
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 8.24%, the technology ETF 4.89%, the energy ETF rises 1.91%; healthcare leads in Europe
An ETF is a listed fund that buys a whole basket of securities in one go: following sector ETFs is the quickest way to see where money is moving. On Friday it moved out of technology and into energy and defensive consumer names.
In the US XLE, the US energy ETF, rose 1.91%, XLP, consumer staples, 1.41%, XLU, the US utilities ETF, 0.67%, and XLV, the US healthcare ETF, 0.45%. At the bottom XLK, the US technology ETF, fell 4.89%, SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, 8.24%, VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, 4.32%, XLI, industrials, 1.60%, and XLC, communications, 1.29%. GLD, the gold ETF, lost 3.47%.
Our model is long energy and healthcare: XLV stands at plus 23.68%, 6.04% above the weekly level, and XLE at plus 21.39%. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, has its weekly sell confirmed, 6.25% below the level.
In Europe EXV4, the European healthcare ETF, rose 2.28%; EXV6, basic resources, fell 2.77%, EXV3, technology, 2.68%, and EXV1, the European banks ETF, 2.38%. EXH1, European oil, stays long at plus 10.77%.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Commodities: WTI crude, gold, copper and TTF gas, with the daily, weekly and monthly change and the weekly and monthly signal from our model
WTI crude oil: up 2.08% on the day, up 0.82% on the week, up 15.15% on the month. Weekly on buy since 20 July, 12.20% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2026.
Gold: down 3.60% on the day, down 3.01% on the week, down 6.77% on the month. Weekly on sell since 28 September, 7.01% below the level; monthly on sell since June 2026.
Copper: down 1.83% on the day, down 0.39% on the week, down 2.11% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 April, 0.33% above the level; monthly on buy since March 2025.
TTF gas: up 6.15% on the day, up 10.75% on the week, up 43.65% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 July, 16.91% above the level; monthly on buy since January 2026.
Intel stock down 28.58%, Qualcomm down 11.12%, AMD down 10.88%, Marvell down 10.05%, Arm down 9.97%, Nvidia down 4.22%
Intel stockShort fell 28.58%: according to Bloomberg the company sees a prolonged weakness in chips for personal computers, and the market treated that as sector news. QualcommShort lost 11.12% and AMDShort 10.88%, both days away from results, ArmShort 9.97%, MarvellShort 10.05% on reports of a bid for Lumentum, BroadcomShort 5.48%, MicronShort 5.30% and NvidiaShort 4.22%. SOXX, the semiconductor ETF, closed down 8.24%.
Reddit stock down 29.22%, Roblox down 18.05%, Datadog down 11.50%, AppLovin down 10.36%, Coinbase down 10.62%; Amazon down 1.41%
Reddit stockShort lost 29.22%, closing near its low: beyond the results, the fear is that Google's artificial intelligence takes traffic away from the platform. RobloxLong fell 18.05% on results, DatadogLong 11.50% with no news of its own, AppLovinShort 10.36%. CoinbaseShort lost 10.62% with lower revenue and the $6.3 billion theft at Binance, the largest in crypto history. Among other US stocks, AmazonShort limited its fall to 1.41% after a much worse night, closing near the session high on three times its median volume.
Regeneron stock up 13.33%, Vertex up 3.50%, Eli Lilly up 3.19%, Gilead up 3.06%, Exxon up 2.16%, Chevron up 1.75%, ConocoPhillips up 2.67%
RegeneronLong gained 13.33%, closing near its high, on a quarter above expectations. Alongside it VertexLong rose 3.50%, Eli LillyLong 3.19%, GileadLong 3.06%, MerckLong 2.18% and AbbVieLong 1.41% with its full-year guidance raised. In energy ConocoPhillipsLong rose 2.67%, ExxonLong 2.16% and ChevronLong 1.75% on results. Among defensives PepsiCoLong rose 2.65% and WalmartLong 1.86%.
Milan stocks: Amplifon stock down 14.50%, STMicroelectronics down 5.27%, Prysmian down 3.92%, Avio down 3.34%; Moncler up 2.42%, Campari up 1.83%, Nexi up 1.16%, Eni up 0.91%
Amplifon stockLong lost 14.50%, closing near its low: third-quarter profit grew 49% and the 2026 guidance was confirmed, but the company's remark about markets distorted by product launches weighed. STMicroelectronics stockShort fell 5.27% with chips, PrysmianShort 3.92% with international electrical names, AvioLong 3.34%, BuzziLong 2.50%, UniCredit stockShort 1.97%, TenarisLong 1.90%, Stellantis stockShort 1.86% and Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 1.24%.
On the upside MonclerShort rose 2.42%, CampariLong 1.83%, NexiLong 1.16%, Eni stockLong 0.91%, ItalgasLong 0.74% and SnamLong 0.65%. Enel stockLong and Leonardo stockShort were flat. Italian October inflation rose to 5.4% against the 4.6% expected, and the BTP-Bund spread widened.
European stocks: AstraZeneca up 6.96%, Bayer up 5.46%, Sanofi up 4.71%, Capgemini up 3.70%, EssilorLuxottica up 3.42%; Infineon down 6.39%, Lloyds down 5.23%
AstraZenecaLong gained 6.96%, the best stock in the FTSE 100, on a strong quarter and a $1.5 billion savings plan. BayerLong rose 5.46% after winning the first Roundup trial since the US Supreme Court ruling, SanofiLong 4.71% with guidance raised, CapgeminiLong 3.70% on revenue, and EssilorLuxotticaLong 3.42%.
At the bottom InfineonShort fell 6.39% with chips and LloydsShort 5.23% with the British bank surcharge.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF falls 1.15%, the DAX ETF 0.89%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.10%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.04%
On Friday the FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 1.15%, the DAXShort ETF 0.89%, the CAC 40Short ETF 0.10% and the FTSE 100Long ETF 0.04%. The British basket remains the only one on buy on the weekly, 1.92% above the level. The German one is on sell, 0.43% below, the French one 0.96%, the Italian one 2.37%.
The model's short stands at plus 5.03% on the Italian basket, on sell since 31 August. Some 68% of DAX companies are above the 200-day average, against 33% of the whole German market: the index is held up by its largest names.
This week's new buy signals: European utilities, healthcare and defence, with Avio, ENAV, Enel and Sanofi among the actionable ones
The weekend analysis published 23 new buy signals, confirmed by the close of Friday 30 October, and 15 are actionable. The profile is defensive: utilities such as EnelLong, HeraLong and TernaLong, healthcare with SanofiLong, AbbottLong and VertexLong, defence with AvioLong and RTXLong.
On Mondays this section lists them in full: below are the actionable ones, each with its reading. The daily is on buy on all of them.
This week's earnings: Apple and Palantir on Monday 2 November, AMD and Ferrari on Tuesday 3, Qualcomm and Arm on Wednesday 4, Buzzi and Siemens Healthineers on Thursday 5
37 companies in our universe report this week among those we follow most closely. Tonight AppleLong and PalantirLong; on Tuesday AMDShort and FerrariShort; on Wednesday QualcommShort, ArmShort and DatadogLong; on Thursday BuzziLong. Dates from company calendars.
Monday 2 November
Apple Long
Roku Long · under a public tender offer by Fox at $96 and 0.9693 Fox shares per share: the price follows the offer, not the results
Cipher Digital Short
Tuesday 3 November
Ferrari Short
Advanced Micro Devices Short
Arista Networks Short
Astera Labs Short
Amgen Long
Booking Short
Shopify Long
Pfizer Long
Fiserv Long
Duolingo Short
Eaton Short
Bayer Long
Wednesday 4 November
QUALCOMM Short
ARM Short
AppLovin Short
Datadog Long
Uber Technologies Short
McDonald's Long
Novo Nordisk Short
MercadoLibre Short
Telecom Italia Short
BPER Banca Short
Bayerische Motoren Werke Short
Thursday 5 November
Siemens Healthineers Long
Buzzi Long
Tenaris Long
Rheinmetall Short
Airbnb Long
ConocoPhillips Long
Toyota Motor Long
Cloudflare Short
Friday 6 November
Moderna Long
This week's economic calendar: ISM manufacturing index on Monday 2 November, US midterm elections on Tuesday 3, euro area inflation on Wednesday 4, Bank of England on Thursday 5, US payrolls on Friday 6
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today the US manufacturing index; on Tuesday the US midterm elections; on Wednesday the euro area inflation flash; on Thursday the Bank of England; on Friday the US jobs report.
Monday 2 November
16:00 · United States · October ISM manufacturing index high impact
Tuesday 3 November
16:00 · United States · September job openings high impact
Wednesday 4 November
11:00 · Euro area · Euro area October inflation, flash estimate high impact
16:00 · United States · October ISM services index high impact
Thursday 5 November
13:00 · United Kingdom · Bank of England: rate decision high impact
Friday 6 November
14:30 · United States · October payrolls and unemployment high impact
16:00 · United States · University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY falls 1.77% and the long holds, QQQ falls 3.47% and stays on sell
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 1.77%, 3.31% below its all-time high. The weekly average of high, low and close stayed just above the weekly level, so the buy signal born in April holds, at plus 11.22%; the close sits 0.47% below the level. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 3.47%, 9.49% below its record and 6.23% below the weekly level. The short born with the 16 October candle stands at plus 2.72%.
On both the daily turned to sell on Friday. On SPY all three profit-taking windows have passed, and the trade is managed with the weekly Reversal Point. Some 59% of S&P 500 companies are above the 200-day average, 20 points more than the whole US market.
The big picture: earnings week, Milan on sell for the month
On Friday the market sold chips and everyone living off artificial intelligence spending, and bought energy, healthcare and defensives. The S&P 500 kept its weekly signal by a whisker, the Nasdaq 100 moved away from its own. In Milan Amplifon made the day, and the basket ended October on sell on the monthly. From tonight it is the turn of results.
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