ETF and stock technical analysis: Prysmian stock falls 7.61% in Milan, the semiconductor ETF drops 6.79% and Nvidia stock 4.40%
On Thursday 22 October the market sold everything that lives on artificial intelligence spending and bought the rest. The semiconductor ETF SOXX lost 6.79% and the US technology ETF XLK 3.29%, while the consumer staples ETF XLP rose 3.31%, the utilities fund XLU 2.07% and the healthcare fund XLV 1.32%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ fell 2.86% and the S&P 500 ETF SPY 1.18%. In Europe the European banks ETF EXV1 lost 3.59% and the basic resources fund EXV6 4.03%. The Milan market was the weakest in Europe, with the FTSE MIB down 2.54% according to the day's coverage and the FTSE MIB ETF MIB down 2.31%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. On Wall Street Nvidia stock lost 4.40% after warning on the timing of its new platforms, Meta stock 6.98%, CoreWeave stock 10.06% and GE Vernova stock 10.64%; on the other side Spotify stock jumped 11.10% on earnings, Accenture stock 7.69% and Procter & Gamble stock 5.58%. In Milan Prysmian stock fell 7.61%, UniCredit 4.73% and Intesa Sanpaolo 3.81%, while Moncler rose 2.61%. In London London Stock Exchange Group gained 7.69%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names. On the AI supply chain the short on Applied Digital is up 42.26%, on Vertiv 38.05%, on Western Digital 34.29%, on CoreWeave 31.66% and on Broadcom 9.68%; among the crypto miners Cipher is up 58.48% and TeraWulf 46.55%. Among the longs the rotation rewarded, Accenture is up 55.94%, SAP 36.57% and Procter & Gamble 10.11%. In Milan the short on Prysmian rises to 25.88%, on Banco BPM to 19.60%, and on the MIB basket to 7.09%.
- ETF technical analysis: semiconductors, consumer staples, European banks, the broad-market funds
- Semiconductor stocks: Nvidia, AMD, CoreWeave, Western Digital
- Power: GE Vernova, Vertiv, Quanta Services against regulated utilities
- Rotation: Accenture, Adobe, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola
- Earnings: Spotify, Lockheed Martin, London Stock Exchange, Nokia, Moderna
- The big names and crypto: Meta, Amazon, Apple, TeraWulf
- Brazil: CSN, Vale, EcoRodovias
- Milan stocks: Prysmian, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Moncler
- Europe: Barclays, Anglo American, Rolls-Royce, Hermès
- European indices: Milan the weakest
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF and the US technology ETF lead the fall, the consumer staples ETF, the utilities ETF and the healthcare ETF rise, the European banks ETF slides
An ETF is a listed fund holding a whole basket of stocks, which is why on a rotation day a single number shows where money went and where it came from. On Thursday the two directions were sharp, and opposite.
In the US, technology paid. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, lost 6.79% and closed near its low, XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, 3.29%, and with them VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, down 2.99%, and FTEC, the Fidelity fund, down 3.03%. Our model has been short all four since 12 October: the SOXX short is up 3.59%, with the price now 12.18% below the weekly level. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, lost 3.35% and slipped 0.23% below its level. On the other side XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, rose 3.31%, the session's best sector, closing at the high; XLU, the US utilities ETF, gained 2.07% and XLV, the US healthcare ETF, 1.32%: all three long, the last up 21.30% since 26 May. XLF, the US financials ETF, up 1.09%, stays on a provisional buy on this week's candle together with XLB and XLY; XLC, the communication services ETF, down 1.42%, stays on a provisional sell. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, lost 2.63%, and the model's short rises to 6.20%.
In Europe the selling ran through banks and commodities. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks, the European banks ETF, lost 3.59% and closed at the low, EXV6, the European basic resources ETF, 4.03%, and EXH4, the European industrials ETF, 2.63%: three shorts, up 6.41%, 8.68% and 4.33%. EXV3, the European technology ETF, fell 2.05%, and EXH1, the European oil and gas ETF, 2.05% despite higher crude. Healthcare in EXV4 held up, gaining 1.93%, on a provisional buy for the week. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB, the FTSE MIB ETF, lost 2.31%.
Our full ETF technical analysis, covering every fund we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad-market ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones behind savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Thursday almost all of them fell, and the difference came down to how much technology each one holds.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, lost 1.18% and has been long since 6 April, up 12.44%, but the price now sits only 0.61% above the weekly level; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are up 12.47% and 12.22%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and the two Russell funds IWB and IWV are below their entry; on XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, this week's candle has turned to a provisional sell. On the total market the model has been short since 14 September with VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, and with SCHB, ITOT and SPTM, all around the short's entry. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, closed flat, up 0.07%, and the short is up 6.53%.
Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, SPDW, SCHF and IXUS are short, with gains between 2.5% and 3.2%; VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, IEFA and IDEV between 1.6% and 1.9%. VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, is up 0.19%.
Emerging markets and Japan. IEMG, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, lost 2.88%, and VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, SCHE and SPEM about 2.3%: all short since 12 October, with gains between 1.8% and 2.1%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, stays long, below its entry.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO and USMV, the low-volatility ETF, rose between 0.6% and 1.2%, closing near the high, and are up 1.39%, 1.80% and 2.22% since the signal born with the 16 October candle.
Semiconductor stocks: Nvidia stock down 4.40%, AMD down 8.10%, Astera Labs down 11.11%, Marvell down 8.70%, Applied Materials down 8.16%; CoreWeave down 10.06%, Western Digital down 6.43%
According to the day's coverage there were two triggers. NvidiaLong warned that rolling out its new platforms will take longer, and lost 4.40%, closing near its low; Bernstein cut its target on CoreWeaveShort over the debt taken on to build computing capacity, and the stock fell 10.06%, dragging NebiusShort, down 7.23%, and Applied DigitalShort, down 9.01%. The rest of the chain went out with them: Astera LabsLong down 11.11%, CredoLong 10.70%, MarvellLong 8.70%, SandiskShort 8.51%, Applied MaterialsShort 8.16%, AMDLong 8.10%, IntelShort 8.04%, ArmShort 7.28%, AristaShort 7.19%, DellShort 6.78%, MicronShort 6.26%, Super MicroShort 5.20%, TSMCShort 4.52% and BroadcomShort 4.31%.
Western DigitalShort lost 6.43% in the session with memory stocks; after the close it reported record profits and a higher outlook, and fell another 6.5% after hours. The chief executive sees storage demand from its top customers running to 2031: growth is not in question, the price the market is willing to pay for it is.
Data centre power stocks lower: GE Vernova stock down 10.64%, Quanta Services down 8.10%, Vertiv down 7.81%, FuelCell down 12.27%, Siemens Energy down 8.56%; American Water Works up 6.29%, Fortis up 3.41%
The most interesting fact of the session is a correlation that broke. GE VernovaShort lost 10.64%, according to the coverage on doubts about how AI spending gets financed, reopened by the Meta case, a day after rising on Nvidia's link to the power grid. With it FuelCellShort fell 12.27%, closing near the low, Siemens EnergyShort 8.56%, Quanta ServicesLong 8.10% ahead of its results on the 29th, VertivShort 7.81%, EatonShort 6.33%, LegrandLong 5.83%, Constellation EnergyLong 5.74%, Schneider ElectricShort 5.36%, CaterpillarShort 4.89% and SiemensShort 4.14%, which closed at the low. Bloom EnergyLong lost 8.70% in the session and reported after the close: revenue up 138%, a higher outlook, but negative cash flow, and another 6.9% off after hours.
In the same session regulated utilities rose: American Water WorksShort up 6.29% and FortisLong up 3.41%, both closing at the high, with the US utilities ETF up 2.07%. The market bought the electricity sold to households and sold the electricity sold to data centres.
Accenture stock up 7.69%, HP up 7.79%, Adobe up 6.07%, Intuit up 5.75%; Procter & Gamble stock up 5.58%, Coca-Cola up 2.87%, Walmart up 2.82%; Datadog down 5.62%
The money that left the supply chain went to two groups. The first is the companies the market had treated as victims of artificial intelligence: AccentureLong up 7.69%, its twelfth straight gain, HPShort 7.79%, AdobeShort 6.07%, IntuitLong 5.75%, FiservShort 5.41%, AutodeskLong 4.13%, SalesforceShort 3.52%, SAPLong 3.21%, ZscalerLong 2.78% and Palo AltoLong 2.21%. Cloud observability software followed the infrastructure instead: DatadogLong fell 5.62%, closing near the low, and SnowflakeLong 2.72%.
The second group is defensives. Procter & GambleLong rose 5.58% on results, with sales up 4% led by volume; Coca-ColaLong 2.87%, PepsiCoShort 3.07%, WalmartLong 2.82%, CostcoLong 1.99%, McDonald'sShort 2.59% and StarbucksShort 2.86%. In healthcare BiogenLong gained 5.34%, Johnson & JohnsonShort 3.81%, Intuitive SurgicalLong 3.67%, Bristol MyersShort 3.08% and Eli LillyLong 2.83%; in telecoms AT&TShort 3.79% and VerizonShort 3.76%, bought for their dividends.
Spotify stock up 11.10%, Lockheed Martin up 6.96%, London Stock Exchange up 7.69%, CSX up 6.76%; Nokia stock down 14.81%, Moderna stock down 17.57%
The rewarded results shared one trait: they collect without having to build. SpotifyShort jumped 11.10% with 306 million paying subscribers, one million above guidance, and 788 million monthly users. Lockheed MartinShort rose 6.96% with a record 292 billion dollar order book and higher guidance, on the day the Pentagon said it intends to buy at least 850 F-35s over ten years; Northrop GrummanShort followed with 2.42% and RTXShort with 1.62%. London Stock Exchange GroupShort gained 7.69%, the best stock in the FTSE 100, with income up 8.8% organically, a higher outlook and the purchase of Octus for 3.535 billion dollars; the move spread to the whole data and exchanges group, CMELong up 3.45%, ExperianLong 3.28%, Deutsche BörseLong 2.99% and S&P GlobalLong 2.24%. CSXShort rose 6.76% on the previous day's results, HoneywellShort 1.67%, and DeltaShort 2.05% and UnitedShort 0.32% behind American Airlines.
On the other side NokiaShort lost 14.81% despite a quarter above forecasts, because its chief executive called the supply squeeze a structural cost increase. ModernaLong fell 17.57%: the full data from the melanoma vaccine study developed with Merck circulated early and were read as below expectations; MerckLong slipped 1.76% and NovavaxLong 9.26%.
Meta stock down 6.98%, Amazon stock down 4.57%, Alphabet down 3.15%, Tesla down 3.08%, Microsoft down 2.23%; Apple stock up 1.23%; TeraWulf down 11.29%, Strategy down 5.00%
Among the big names only AppleLong closed higher, up 1.23%, near the high and close to its record. MetaLong lost 6.98%, the worst of the group: the market went back to asking how the spending announced with its results will be paid for, and Wednesday evening's after-hours gain reversed by the open. AmazonShort fell 4.57%, AlphabetShort 3.15%, TeslaLong 3.08% with the SpaceX merger idea in place of its results, and MicrosoftLong 2.23%, with Microsoft and Tesla closing near their lows. NetflixShort recovered 3.09%. After hours none of them moved more than 1%.
The crypto miners, which the market now values as computing infrastructure, paid for the deleveraging more than anyone: TeraWulfShort down 11.29%, CipherShort 8.87%, IRENShort 8.37%, RiotShort 8.06%, MARAShort 6.93%, StrategyLong 5.00%, CoinbaseLong 4.51% and RobinhoodShort 5.25%. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs' hedge fund clients sold short at five times the pace of their buying, taking short exposure to a five-year high.
Brazilian stocks: CSN down 5.43%, Usiminas down 4.81%, EcoRodovias down 4.58%, Vale stock down 3.97%, Gerdau down 3.92%; Petrobras and MRV flat
Brazil followed the fall in commodities and the outflow from emerging markets. The biggest losers were CSNLong, down 5.43%, UsiminasLong 4.81%, EcoRodoviasLong 4.58%, ValeShort 3.97%, closing at the low, GerdauLong 3.92%, BradesparShort 3.89%, ItaúsaLong 2.61%, Lojas RennerLong 2.31% and UltraparLong 2.27%. Banks fell less, ItaúLong 1.84% and BradescoLong 1.97%, while PetrobrasLong, MRVLong, CyrelaLong and LocalizaLong barely moved. Gerdau reports on Monday, Vale on Thursday.
Milan stocks: Prysmian stock down 7.61%, UniCredit stock down 4.73%, Monte dei Paschi down 4.36%, Banco BPM down 4.18%, Intesa Sanpaolo down 3.81%; Moncler up 2.61%, Campari up 2.44%
The Milan market was the weakest in Europe, down 2.54% according to the day's coverage, and banks did most of the damage: UniCredit stockShort lost 4.73%, Monte dei PaschiShort 4.36%, Banco BPMShort 4.18%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort 3.81%, FinecoShort 3.60%, BPERShort 3.33%, Banca MediolanumShort 2.83%, Poste ItalianeShort 2.76%, UnipolShort 2.74% and MediobancaShort 2.47%, almost all closing at the session low. Since the start of the week the sector has carried the government's plan to raise taxes on finance, and on Thursday the selling of European banks came on top.
Prysmian stockShort lost 7.61%: the market treats it as a pure play on data centre cables, even after the Atkore purchase that moves it towards electrical solutions. SaipemLong fell 6.00% and TenarisLong 5.05% as oil services were sold despite higher crude, STMicroelectronics stockShort 4.98% with chipmakers, BuzziShort 2.29%, AzimutShort 1.86%, and Eni stockLong 1.02% the day before its results. Against the tide, defensives and luxury: MonclerShort up 2.61%, CampariLong 2.44% at the high, InwitLong 2.36%, DiaSorinLong 1.89% and LeonardoShort 0.26%.
European stocks: Barclays down 2.33%, Anglo American down 5.60%, Rolls-Royce down 5.11%, Hermès down 4.94%, Infineon down 6.04%, BNP Paribas down 4.88%; Deutsche Telekom up 2.67%, L'Oréal up 1.80%
In London BarclaysShort lost 2.33% with a quarterly profit and a buyback, but with fixed income trading down and a plan to cut five thousand jobs by handing many functions to artificial intelligence, at a cost twice the first estimate. The selling spread to European banks: BNP ParibasShort down 4.88%, Société GénéraleShort 4.52%, Deutsche BankShort 2.81%, LloydsShort 2.76% and HSBCShort 2.29%. Miners followed commodities: Anglo AmericanLong down 5.60%, Rio TintoShort 3.42%, closing at the low, and GlencoreShort 2.95%. Civil aerospace paid for fuel, the opposite way to defence: Rolls-RoyceShort down 5.11%, SafranShort 3.79%, AirbusShort 2.01% and ThalesShort 1.43%.
HermèsShort lost 4.94% with no news of its own, while the rest of luxury barely moved, KeringShort down 1.27% and LVMHShort 0.21%; it closed near the session high, though, on more than three times its usual volume. In Germany InfineonShort fell 6.04% with chips and RWELong 2.27%. Quality defensives held up: Deutsche TelekomShort rose 2.67%, DanoneShort 2.56%, SanofiShort 1.88%, Dassault SystèmesLong 2.04%, L'OréalLong 1.80% and Munich ReLong 0.91%, with EssilorLuxotticaShort up 1.93% after Wednesday's jump.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF falls 2.31%, the CAC 40 ETF 1.53%, the DAX ETF 1.18%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.21%
On Thursday the four European indices fell together, and the ranking followed the weight of banks. The FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 2.31%, closing near the low, the CAC 40Short fund 1.53%, the DAX ETFShort 1.18%, also near the low, while the FTSE 100Long fund gave up only 0.21%. The UK basket is still the only one on a weekly buy, 2.23% above its level; the other three are short and moved further from their level: Milan 4.46% below, Paris 2.74% and Frankfurt 2.15%.
The model's short is up 7.09% on the Italian basket, short since 31 August, and 6.76% on the French one, since 24 August; on the German one, short since 14 September, the price is back around the entry. On the monthly chart the FTSE MIB has relit October's provisional sell, which had gone out on Wednesday, and the 30 October close will decide it. The indices are holding up better than their markets: 58% of DAX members are above their 200-day average, against less than a third of the whole German market. And European industrials are the weakest sector in the area, with one stock in ten above its 40-week average.
This week's new buy signals: Walmart, British American Tobacco, Ecolab, Coca-Cola, the utilities ETF and the consumer staples ETF move back above their entry, MercadoLibre slips below
The weekend analysis published 42 new buy signals, confirmed by the close on Friday 16 October, and 22 are tradable: consumer goods, utilities, financial services, healthcare, energy and above all Europe, from DiageoLong to CompassLong, from RELXLong to Dassault SystèmesLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes. Thursday was this group's day: six names move back above their entry, Walmart, British American Tobacco, Ecolab, Coca-Cola and the utilities and consumer staples ETFs, while MercadoLibre slips below. No daily signal has changed side, nobody reported and no name has left the group.
This week's earnings: Eni and American Express today, Verizon on Monday 26, Visa and Coca-Cola on Tuesday 27, Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday 28, Amazon, Eli Lilly and Prysmian on Thursday 29
72 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today brings EniLong, American ExpressShort and SLBShort; Monday 26 VerizonShort; Tuesday 27 VisaLong, Coca-ColaLong, BoeingShort, PayPalShort and HSBCShort; Wednesday 28 MicrosoftLong, AlphabetShort, GE VernovaShort, StellantisShort and Deutsche BankShort; Thursday 29 AmazonShort, Eli LillyLong, IntelShort, CaterpillarShort, STMicroelectronicsShort and PrysmianShort.
Friday 23 October
Eni Long
American Express Short
SLB Short
Monday 26 October
Verizon Communications Short
Gerdau Long
Tuesday 27 October
Visa Long
Coca-Cola Long
Boeing Short
S&P Global Long
PayPal Short
HSBC Short
Robinhood Markets Short
SoFi Technologies Short
Royal Caribbean Long
Baker Hughes Short
Ecolab Long
Enphase Energy Short
Hypera Long
BigBear.ai Short
Pulmonx Short
SNDL Short
Wednesday 28 October
Microsoft Long
Alphabet Short
ServiceNow Long
GE Vernova Short
Vertiv Short
Stellantis Milano Short
Deutsche Bank Short
BASF Long
Mercedes-Benz Short
Airbus Short
GSK Short
Dassault Systemes Long
Fortinet Long
Biogen Long
eBay Long
Ford Motor Short
American Water Works Short
Klabin Short
Thursday 29 October
Amazon Short
Eli Lilly Long
Mastercard Long
Merck Long
Caterpillar Short
Intel Short
Sandisk Short
Coinbase Global Long
Strategy Long
Quanta Services Long
Bristol-Myers Squibb Short
Gilead Sciences Long
Starbucks Short
First Solar Short
Roblox Long
Reddit Short
Rivian Automotive Short
Peloton Interactive Short
Norwegian Cruise Line Short
FMC Short
Edison International Short
AES Long
STMicroelectronics Short
Prysmian Short
Amplifon Long
Italgas Short
adidas Long
Volkswagen AG Pref Short
TotalEnergies Long
Shell Long
Lloyds Banking Short
Vale Short
Ambev Long
This week's economic calendar: flash PMIs and UK retail sales today, Ifo on Monday, the UK budget and the Fed on Wednesday 28, US GDP and the ECB on Thursday 29
The macro events over the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today brings UK retail sales from the Office for National Statistics, the day after a drop in consumer confidence, and October's flash PMIs; on Monday the German Ifo. Then, in less than twenty-four hours, come the Fed, the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP with PCE prices from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the ECB. Off the calendar, Moody's reviews France today.
Friday 23 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · September retail sales, the day after a drop in consumer confidence medium impact
09:30 · Germany · October flash PMIs, first in Germany and then in the UK: the month's first reading on manufacturing and services medium impact
Monday 26 October
10:00 · Germany · October Ifo business climate medium impact
Wednesday 28 October
13:30 · United Kingdom · The UK government's Autumn Budget medium impact
19:00 · United States · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Thursday 29 October
13:30 · United States · Third-quarter GDP, first estimate, and in the same hour September income, spending and PCE prices high impact
14:15 · Euro area · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European; Italy moves back to winter time on Sunday 25 October. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: QQQ falls 2.86% and the short moves into profit, SPY falls 1.18% and the long keeps a 0.6% margin
QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 2.86% on 64.6 million shares against a 35.0 million average, closing near the low and below the lower daily Bollinger band. It fell below the floor of its waiting zone, which was also the entry of the short born with the 16 October candle: the trade moves into profit, up 0.75%, with the price 5.30% below the weekly level and 7.65% below its record. SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 1.18% on 54.1 million shares against a 40.2 million average, mid-range and 2.26% below its all-time high: it is back inside its waiting zone, and the long in its twenty-eighth week now keeps only a 0.61% margin over the weekly level.
The phases remain opposite. SPY has crossed all three profit-taking windows and is managed on the weekly Inversion Point, which protects almost 12% from the entry. QQQ has its first target about 5% below the price, with the stop on this week's candle about 5.6% above.
The big picture: the price of building
On Thursday the market did not run from equities: it sold whoever has to borrow to build artificial intelligence and bought whoever collects without building. Semiconductors, data centre power suppliers and crypto miners fell together; consumer staples, regulated utilities, healthcare and the software that looked set to be replaced rose. In Milan banks weighed more than anywhere else. Our model was short the supply chain and the banks and long the defensives, and the session proved it right on both sides. Tonight the weekly candle closes, with the S&P 500 a few tenths from its level.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).