ETF and stock technical analysis: Prysmian stock rises 3.88% in Milan, the US technology ETF gains 1.67% and Super Micro stock jumps 9.55%
On Wednesday 21 October the market bought back the infrastructure of artificial intelligence. The US technology ETF XLK gained 1.67%, the semiconductor ETF SOXX 2.07% and the industrials ETF XLI 0.91%, while the communication services ETF XLC fell 1.11% and the healthcare fund XLV 0.49%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ added 1.05% and the S&P 500 ETF SPY 0.53%. In Europe the European technology ETF EXV3 rose 2.22% and the banks fund EXV1 1.36%. In the Milan market the FTSE MIB closed up 1.17% according to the day's coverage, and the FTSE MIB ETF MIB gained 0.52%.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. On Wall Street Super Micro stock jumped 9.55% on its server forecast, Zscaler stock rose 7.84%, Bloom Energy stock 7.13% with power for data centres and IBM stock 3.94% on earnings; AT&T stock lost 6.45% and Netflix stock 5.31%. In Milan Prysmian stock rose 3.88% after closing its Atkore deal, Banco BPM 3.09% and STMicroelectronics 2.55%, while Leonardo slipped 2.00%. In Paris EssilorLuxottica jumped 15.48% on revenue.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names. In software the long on CrowdStrike is up 113.63% since 20 April, on Zscaler 53.00%, on ServiceNow 22.61% and on IBM 6.74%. On the weak earnings the short on Netflix is up 9.40% and on Verizon 7.48%; with Chinese ADRs sold off, the short on XPeng is up 43.82% and on NIO 42.56%. The shorts on AI infrastructure stay wide even after the bounce: Applied Digital 36.54%, Vertiv 32.80%, Western Digital 29.78%. In Milan Prysmian is still up 19.77% on the short side and Eni 14.98% on the long side.
- ETF technical analysis: technology, semiconductors, communication services, the broad-market funds
- Power for AI: Bloom Energy, Vertiv, Applied Digital, Legrand, Siemens
- Semiconductor stocks: Super Micro, Dell, AMD, Nvidia
- Software and earnings: Zscaler, CrowdStrike, IBM, AT&T, Netflix
- Tesla, Meta and Asia: Chinese ADRs near a bear market
- Brazil: CSN, Vale, EcoRodovias
- Milan stocks: Prysmian, Banco BPM, STMicroelectronics, Leonardo
- Europe: EssilorLuxottica, SAP, Experian, Rheinmetall
- European indices: three move closer to their level
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: the US technology ETF and the semiconductor ETF lead the rebound, the European technology ETF follows, the communication services ETF and the European autos ETF slip
An ETF is a listed fund that tracks a basket, whether an index, a sector or a commodity, and it trades on an exchange like a stock. On Wednesday the basket that mattered was technology, after three sessions in which it had lagged.
In the US, technology led. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gained 1.67%, and SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, 2.07%; VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, and FTEC, the Fidelity fund, followed with 1.71% and 1.74%. Our model has been short all four since 12 October, and the bounce still leaves the price below the weekly level: XLK by 4.56%, SOXX by 8.02%. XLI, the industrials ETF, rose 0.91% with power for data centres, and the short is still up 4.98%. XLF, the US financials ETF, up 0.57%, stays on a provisional buy on this week's candle, like XLB and XLY. XLE, the US energy ETF, rose 0.28% and is up 18.17% since 13 July. On the other side XLC, the communication services ETF, fell 1.11% under the weight of AT&T and Netflix, and this week's candle turns it to a provisional sell; XLV, the US healthcare ETF, slipped 0.49% after Tuesday's record and stays long, up 19.72%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, gained 0.34%; the model has been short since 21 September, up 3.68%. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, rose 0.96% and is up 8.94% since July.
Europe drew the same picture. EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology, the European technology ETF, gained 2.22% and closed at the session high; EXH1, the European oil and gas ETF, rose 1.39% with Brent and is up 8.75%. The European banks ETF EXV1 added 1.36%, with the short up 2.93%; European industrials in EXH4 rose 1.33%, short and up 1.75%. At the bottom the European autos ETF EXHG lost 1.58% and closed at the low, with the short up 2.00%, followed by telecoms in EXV2 and basic resources in EXV6, both short and in profit. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB, the FTSE MIB ETF, rose 0.52%, less than the index: it trades thinly in Paris.
Our full ETF technical analysis, covering every fund we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Broad-market ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones behind savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Wednesday almost all of them rose, the exception being emerging markets, which felt the selling in Asia.
US market ETFs. SPY, the SPDR S&P 500, the most heavily traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, gained 0.53% and has been long since 6 April, now up 13.78%, with the price 1.82% above the weekly level; SPYM, the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are up 13.79% and 13.68%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, sit above their entry, while the two broad Russell funds, IWB and IWV, are still just below. On the total market the model has been short since 14 September with VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, SCHB and SPTM: the price is about 1% above the short's entry and just below the weekly level, the narrowest gap in the family. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, rose 0.25% and is still up 6.60% on the short side.
Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, SPDW and SCHF stay short, with gains between 1.3% and 1.7%; VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, IXUS, IEFA and IDEV between 0.7% and 1%. VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, sits just above the short's entry.
Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, SCHE and SPEM closed slightly lower on the day Chinese stocks were sold, IEMG slightly higher: all short since 12 October, a little above the short's entry. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, stays long, below its entry.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO and USMV, the low-volatility ETF, rose between 0.09% and 0.24%, and all three stay above the entry of the buy signal born with the 16 October candle.
Data centre power stocks: Bloom Energy stock up 7.13%, Constellation up 4.60%, Vertiv up 4.22%, GE Vernova up 4.00%, Applied Digital up 8.54%; in Europe Legrand up 3.14%, Siemens stock up 2.50%
According to the day's coverage the session's thesis was not a sector but a physical constraint: after the heads of Nvidia and Tesla pointed to electrical power as the real limit on building artificial intelligence, money flowed to whoever generates, distributes and cools that power. The day after the drop, the same names rose as a block. Bloom EnergyLong up 7.13%, Constellation EnergyLong up 4.60%, VertivShort up 4.22%, GE VernovaShort up 4.00%, EatonShort up 3.13% and CaterpillarShort up 2.06% on demand for on-site power generation. Applied DigitalShort gained 8.54% after a deal with Soluna for a wind-powered data centre in Texas, and alongside it TeraWulfShort rose 6.24%, IRENShort 4.58% and SolarEdgeShort 2.56%.
In Europe the same move ran through electrical equipment: LegrandLong up 3.14%, closing at the high, Siemens EnergyShort up 2.55%, SiemensShort up 2.50%, Schneider ElectricShort up 1.96% and RWELong up 2.11%. In Milan Prysmian, which has just completed its purchase of Atkore, rose 3.88%. The coverage makes a point worth keeping for anyone running a portfolio: these stocks sit in eight different sectors but share a single underlying exposure.
Semiconductor stocks: Super Micro stock up 9.55%, Dell up 5.27%, Credo up 6.28%, Western Digital up 3.89%, AMD stock up 3.36%, Nvidia stock up 2.54%
The spark came from Super MicroShort: a fiscal first quarter above forecasts and a higher outlook for AI servers. According to the day's coverage the stock was up as much as 14.3% intraday, closed up 9.55% but near its session low, and pulled along DellShort, up 5.27%, and the whole supply chain: CredoLong up 6.28%, Western DigitalShort up 3.89% ahead of earnings, AMDLong up 3.36%, NvidiaLong up 2.54%, ArmShort up 2.50%, Texas InstrumentsLong up 2.47% before results released after the close, MicronShort up 1.96%, BroadcomShort up 1.03% and Applied MaterialsShort up 0.98%. In Europe InfineonShort gained 2.02%, and in Milan STMicroelectronics 2.55%.
Zscaler stock up 7.84%, Datadog up 6.50%, CrowdStrike up 5.26%, IBM stock up 3.94%, Danaher up 4.29%; AT&T stock down 6.45%, Netflix stock down 5.31%
The day's second rotation ran through cybersecurity and infrastructure software. ZscalerLong led with a 7.84% gain, closing at the high, on the day DA Davidson started coverage; behind it DatadogLong up 6.50%, FastlyLong up 5.57%, CloudflareLong up 5.32%, CrowdStrikeLong up 5.26%, ServiceNowLong up 2.39%, Palo AltoLong up 2.05%, ZoomShort up 2.03% and PalantirLong up 4.74% on sovereign AI deliveries.
Earnings split the day. IBMLong rose 3.94% on 5% revenue growth, a higher software outlook and the return of deferred contracts; DanaherLong gained 4.29% after raising its earnings-per-share guidance. The reverse case was AT&TShort: earnings above forecasts but subscriber growth below estimates, and the market focused on Starlink's threat to fixed wireless, down 6.45% with a close near the low; the same reading hit VerizonShort, down 2.20%. NetflixShort lost another 5.31% on the second day after its results, with its advertising target pushed back. AbbottShort slipped 1.89% on earnings.
Tesla stock up 3.41%, Meta stock up 0.47% before earnings, United up 3.99%, Rocket Lab up 5.44%; Chinese ADRs lower, XPeng down 5.55%, Alibaba down 3.87%
TeslaLong closed up 3.41% on reports of a merger with SpaceX; then came third-quarter results, with flat revenue, annual capital spending cut to 20 billion dollars and a longer timeline for the Optimus robot, and the stock fell after hours. MetaLong, up 0.47% at the close, went the other way: revenue up 26%, a fourth-quarter target of up to 76 billion dollars and capital spending raised to 135-145 billion, and after hours the stock rose as much as 4%, ending the evening session up 2.2%, even though the same day brought a record 25 billion dollar civil penalty in New Mexico and a new share class to fund AI spending.
The Starlink wave also lifted airlines and space: United AirlinesShort up 3.99% on the second day after its results, DeltaShort up 1.32%, Rocket LabShort up 5.44% and Intuitive MachinesShort up 3.51%. Bitcoin near 84,000 dollars rekindled crypto names: StrategyLong up 7.54%, MARAShort up 4.14%, RobinhoodShort up 3.79% and CircleShort up 4.47%. Online travel agencies paid for a rethink of ratings in the age of AI agents, ExpediaShort down 5.03% and BookingShort down 3.38%, and FMCShort lost 5.27% after a third straight week of target cuts. In Asia, according to Bloomberg, Chinese stocks are close to a bear market: XPengShort down 5.55%, AlibabaShort down 3.87%, JD.comShort down 3.62%, Li AutoShort down 3.60%, BaiduShort down 2.09% and NIOShort down 2.04%.
Brazilian stocks lower: CSN down 4.99%, Gafisa down 5.13%, Cosan down 3.42%, EcoRodovias down 3.05%, Vale stock down 2.15%; Itaú and Bradesco hold
The Bovespa was the worst of the major markets we follow. The case with a name was CSNLong, down 4.99% after S&P cut its rating to B minus with a negative outlook; the rest was broad selling in commodities and cyclicals, with copper lower and worries about Chinese demand in the background: GafisaLong down 5.13%, CosanLong down 3.42%, QualicorpLong down 3.18%, EcoRodoviasLong down 3.05%, LightLong down 2.65%, BraskemShort down 2.64%, BradesparShort down 2.49%, ValeShort down 2.15% and UsiminasLong down 1.92%. Banks held up, ItaúLong up 0.20% and BradescoLong up 0.22% ahead of earnings, with Banco do BrasilLong down 0.41%. PetrobrasLong, MRVLong, CyrelaLong, LocalizaLong, Lojas RennerLong and HyperaLong barely moved.
Milan stocks: Prysmian stock up 3.88%, Banco BPM up 3.09%, STMicroelectronics up 2.55%, Poste up 2.54%; Leonardo stock down 2.00%, Inwit down 1.90%
The Milan market closed up 1.17% according to the day's coverage, on two company stories. Prysmian stockShort rose 3.88% after completing, on 19 October, its 3.8 billion dollar cash purchase of Atkore, which moves the group towards electrical solutions and puts it at the centre of the data centre theme. Banco BPMShort gained 3.09%: after ISS, Glass Lewis also advised Monte dei Paschi shareholders to reject the bid for Banco BPM and Banca Generali. Behind them, domestic financials and services: Poste ItalianeShort up 2.54% at the session high, FinecoShort up 2.49%, Telecom ItaliaShort up 2.27%, LottomaticaShort up 2.02%, Banca MediolanumShort up 1.86%, UniCreditShort up 1.47%, Intesa SanpaoloShort up 1.28%, GeneraliShort up 1.44%, SnamShort up 1.16%, TernaShort up 0.90%, BuzziShort up 1.79% and NexiShort up 1.09%.
STMicroelectronics stockShort rose 2.55% with chipmakers, eight sessions before its results on 29 October; AvioShort gained 2.08% with space stocks; Eni stockLong rose 1.75% and SaipemLong 1.84% with oil, and Eni reports tomorrow. On the other side LeonardoShort fell 2.00%, following Rheinmetall's correction, InwitLong 1.90% and DiaSorinLong 1.69%, both closing near their lows, FerrariShort 0.80%, StellantisShort 0.44%, AmplifonLong 0.39% and CampariLong 0.55%.
European stocks: EssilorLuxottica up 15.48%, SAP stock up 3.52%, Capgemini up 1.67%, Experian up 2.65%, Deutsche Bank up 1.95%; Rheinmetall down 3.23%, BMW stock down 1.11%
The widest move in our whole universe was EssilorLuxotticaShort, up 15.48% with a close near the high: according to the day's coverage quarterly revenue beat forecasts, as traditional eyewear made up for slower sales of AI glasses. SAPLong rose 3.52%, closing at the high, after topping 10 billion euros in quarterly revenue for the first time and raising its 2026 outlook; with it CapgeminiLong gained 1.67%. In London September inflation rose to 3.5%, above forecasts, yet the market closed higher with ExperianLong up 2.65%, PrudentialShort up 1.78%, RELXLong up 1.54%, LloydsShort up 1.32% and HSBCShort up 0.97%; BarclaysShort held still ahead of today's results.
In Germany Deutsche BankShort rose 1.95%, AllianzShort 1.20%, Munich ReLong 0.91% and E.ONShort 1.19%; against the tide RheinmetallShort fell 3.23% after the run of previous sessions, carmakers slipped with BMWShort down 1.11%, Mercedes-BenzShort down 0.77% and VolkswagenShort down 0.80%, and Deutsche BörseLong lost 0.29%. In Paris Société GénéraleShort rose 0.79%, TotalEnergiesLong 1.20% with oil, and BNP ParibasShort slipped 0.16%.
European indices: the DAX ETF rises 1.46%, the CAC 40 ETF 1.20%, the FTSE MIB ETF 0.52%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.17%
On Wednesday the four European indices rose together. The DAX ETFShort gained 1.46%, closing near the high, the CAC 40Short fund 1.20% at the session high and the FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.52%, against an index up 1.17% according to the day's coverage: it trades thinly in Paris, and over several sessions the two measures come back close. The FTSE 100Long fund added 0.17%. The UK basket is still the only one on a weekly buy, 2.43% above its level; the other three are short, but the rally has brought them closer: Frankfurt is 0.98% below the level, Paris 1.23% and Milan 2.97%.
The model's short is up 4.90% on the Italian basket, short since 31 August, and 5.31% on the French one, since 24 August; on the German one, short since 14 September, the price is above the entry. On the monthly chart the FTSE MIB has cancelled October's provisional sell: the buy born in November 2022 is valid again, with the price a little below the monthly level, and the 30 October close decides. The indices are held up by their largest companies: 63% of DAX members are above their 200-day average, against a third of the whole German market; in the FTSE MIB it is 54%, against 37% of the whole Italian list.
This week's new buy signals: adidas, Siemens Healthineers, Air Liquide and BlackRock move back above their entry, the consumer staples ETF slips below, CME and Kinder Morgan have reported
The weekend analysis published 42 new buy signals, confirmed by the close on Friday 16 October, and 22 are tradable: consumer goods, utilities, financial services, healthcare, energy and above all Europe, from DiageoLong to CompassLong, from RELXLong to Dassault SystèmesLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes. On the fourth session four names move back above their entry, adidas, Siemens Healthineers, Air Liquide and BlackRock, while the consumer staples ETF slips below with the defensive side of the market. CME and Kinder Morgan reported on Wednesday, with muted reactions. No daily signal has changed side and no name has left the group.
This week's earnings: Procter & Gamble, Barclays, Lockheed and Nebius today, Eni on Friday 23, Visa and Coca-Cola on Tuesday 27, Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday 28
52 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today brings Procter & GambleLong, HoneywellShort, Lockheed MartinShort, BarclaysShort, NebiusShort, Western DigitalShort and Bloom EnergyLong; Friday 23 EniLong, American ExpressShort and SLBShort; Tuesday 27 VisaLong, Coca-ColaLong, BoeingShort, S&P GlobalLong, PayPalShort and HSBCShort; Wednesday 28 MicrosoftLong, AlphabetShort, ServiceNowLong, StellantisShort and Deutsche BankShort.
Thursday 22 October
Procter & Gamble Long
Honeywell International Short
Lockheed Martin Short
Barclays Short
Nebius Short
Western Digital Short
Bloom Energy Long
Newmont Short
Nokia Short
Valero Energy Long
Spotify Technology Short
PG&E Short
Banco Bradesco Long
Friday 23 October
Eni Long
American Express Short
SLB Short
Monday 26 October
Verizon Communications Short
Gerdau Long
Tuesday 27 October
Visa Long
Coca-Cola Long
Boeing Short
S&P Global Long
PayPal Short
HSBC Short
Robinhood Markets Short
SoFi Technologies Short
Royal Caribbean Long
Baker Hughes Short
Ecolab Long
Enphase Energy Short
Hypera Long
BigBear.ai Short
Pulmonx Short
SNDL Short
Wednesday 28 October
Microsoft Long
Alphabet Short
ServiceNow Long
GE Vernova Short
Vertiv Short
Stellantis Milano Short
Deutsche Bank Short
BASF Long
Mercedes-Benz Short
Airbus Short
GSK Short
Dassault Systemes Long
Fortinet Long
Biogen Long
eBay Long
Ford Motor Short
American Water Works Short
Klabin Short
This week's economic calendar: flash PMIs and UK retail sales on Friday, Ifo on Monday, the Fed on Wednesday 28, US GDP and the ECB on Thursday 29
The macro events over the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Until Monday the calendar belongs to the UK, Germany and Japan; then, in less than twenty-four hours, come the Fed, the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP with PCE prices, and the ECB. Off the calendar, Moody's reviews France on Friday.
Friday 23 October
01:30 · Japan · Japan's September inflation, a week before the Bank of Japan medium impact
08:00 · United Kingdom · September retail sales, after inflation rose for a third month medium impact
09:30 · Germany · October flash PMIs, first in Germany and then in the UK: the month's first reading on manufacturing and services medium impact
Monday 26 October
10:00 · Germany · October Ifo business climate medium impact
Wednesday 28 October
13:30 · United Kingdom · The UK government's Autumn Budget medium impact
19:00 · United States · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Thursday 29 October
13:30 · United States · Third-quarter GDP, first estimate, and in the same hour September income, spending and PCE prices high impact
14:15 · Euro area · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European; Italy moves back to winter time on Sunday 25 October. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: QQQ rises 1.05% and stays short, SPY rises 0.53% and stays long
QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained 1.05%, twice the broad index, on 32.5 million shares against a 35.0 million average, closing in the upper part of its range but below the daily Inversion Point. It stays short on the weekly signal, 3.53% below the level, and 4.94% below its record. SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, rose 0.53% on 31.9 million shares against a 41.4 million average, 1.09% below its all-time high: the daily signal has been on sell since 14 October by a few points, while the weekly signal stays on buy in its twenty-eighth week, 1.82% above the level.
The two are in opposite phases. SPY has crossed all three profit-taking windows and is managed on the weekly Inversion Point. QQQ has a short born with the 16 October candle, with the first target about 8% below the price and the stop on the weekly level about 4% above.
The big picture: power before chips
On Wednesday the market bought the infrastructure of artificial intelligence, from the servers to the electricity that runs them, and it did so on two continents while Asia sold. It was the exact reverse of Tuesday: technology and electrical equipment rose, healthcare and communication services fell. Our model collected on software and on Chinese ADRs, while the bounce went against the younger shorts on chips and power, which stay below their weekly level. Meta and Tesla earnings weigh on the open; on Friday the weekly candle's close will show who has changed side.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).