ETF and stock technical analysis: the chip ETF shrugs off Michael Burry's puts, the utilities ETF rises and Micron stock heads into earnings

An ETF is a fund that trades on an exchange like a single stock while holding a whole index, sector or commodity: buying one share means buying the entire basket at once, which is why flows into ETFs show where money is moving before any commentary does.

SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, gained 1.19%. According to an article carried by Yahoo Finance, Michael Burry has brought forward his timing for the bursting of what he sees as an AI bubble and replaced his short sales with put options on eight names, this ETF among them: for now the market has not followed him. Our model has been a buyer of the semiconductor ETF since Friday 25 September. XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, gained 1.17% and was the best in the US grid, against our short opened on 3 August, which is still up 8.94%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, recovered 1.32% after Monday's slump, and the model's short, opened on 21 September, is still up 2.67%.

Energy went the other way: EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, lost 1.52% on the Hormuz talks, and XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, 0.90%. In Europe technology ran: EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF, rose 2.44% with Infineon. Flat were XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, down 0.02%, and XLC, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR, up 0.26%; slightly lower were XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, down 0.33%, XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, down 0.31%, and XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, down 0.52%, while XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, rose 0.14% with the cruise lines. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, slipped 0.52%. For the full ETF technical analysis of every fund we follow, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

The broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty ETFs on the major baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. On Tuesday they barely moved, almost all between 0.1% and 0.6% lower, and no position changed: the comparison within each family is still the most useful reading.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, is up 12.47%, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 12.48% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 12.44%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, have been buys since 3 August and sit at their entry. On the whole market the signal has been a sell since 14 September, and all six ETFs in that group are at break-even: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, down 0.15% on Tuesday, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets outside the US. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, and IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, have been buys since 6 April, with gains between 4.77% and 5.49%. SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity, have been buys since 10 August. IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, and VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, remain sells since 14 September; VGK was the weakest of the family, down 0.60%. VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, a buy since 6 April, is up 9.29%.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, have been buys since 13 April, up 0.74% and 1.75%; IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, the only one of the family to rise on Tuesday, up 0.33%, and SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, since 17 August, both close to their entry. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, slipped 0.45%.

Dividend, low-volatility and thematic ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September and the short is working: up 1.79%, 2.85% and 1.83%. In technology VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, and QDVE, iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, have been buys since 10 August, up 1.87%, 1.91% and 5.58%; MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, is up 6.70% on a buy since 13 July.

According to a BeInCrypto article carried by Yahoo Finance, Michael Burry has brought forward his timing for the bursting of the AI bubble, which he had so far placed in 2028, and swapped his short sales for put options on eight names: MicronLong, NebiusLong, NvidiaLong, PalantirLong, the semiconductor ETF, OracleLong, CoreWeaveShort and CaterpillarShort. On 26 September we covered his larger bets against chips; this time the thesis leans on an Ares Management report about the sector's reliance on a constant supply of fresh capital and on revenue that has yet to be proven.

Tuesday's market answered differently. Micron stocks rose 1.05%, Nebius 2.36%, Oracle 3.91% on the launch of Fusion Claw, an execution runtime for twenty-five new agent applications on its cloud, CoreWeave 1.01% and Caterpillar 0.82%; only Nvidia stock, down 0.72%, and Palantir, down 0.27%, gave ground. Among the other chipmakers the day was clearer still: Applied MaterialsShort up 5.19%, MarvellLong 4.51%, ArmLong 3.65% and BroadcomShort 1.58%, while QualcommLong lost another 1.80%. Tonight, after the close, Micron reports its quarter, and on the eve of the results a rival asked the US International Trade Commission to block imports of some of its memory chips over an alleged patent infringement.

The day's macro data were a warning about the US consumer: confidence as measured by the Conference Board fell to its lowest in more than twelve years. The stock that contradicted it was CarnivalShort, up 13.41%: quarterly revenue of 8.435 billion dollars against 8.3 expected, record net income of 1.9 billion, raised guidance and half of 2027 already booked at record prices. The other cruise lines followed, Royal CaribbeanShort up 7.45% and Norwegian CruiseShort 3.42%. Carnival stocks have now left the surveys behind: high-end spending on experiences still ignores them.

Meta stockLong recovered 3.24% after extending its AI agent to small businesses, with connections to Shopify, Stripe and other platforms, and ShopifyShort gained 2.95%. Bloom EnergyLong climbed 10.80% and BoeingShort recovered 1.78% after Monday's 6.9% slide. Apple stockLong fell 2.66% and Tesla stocksLong 1.29%, after a large investment bank cut its estimate for third-quarter deliveries, due on Friday. In China, Geely bought 30% of the battery swap and charging network of NioShort, which lost 5.29% and dragged XPengShort down 4.82% and Li AutoShort 4.10%. PepsiCoShort took its second downgrade in two sessions and barely moved, up 0.15%.

The cleanest move of the day came from geopolitics. US and Iranian officials held indirect talks, through mediators, on the Strait of Hormuz, and together with a drawdown from US strategic reserves crude lost 3.48%; according to market reports European gas fell 5.4%. Oil producers paid the bill: OccidentalShort down 2.07%, BPLong 2.05%, TotalEnergiesLong 2.38%, ShellLong 1.66%, ChevronLong 0.96% and Exxon MobilLong 0.72%. PetrobrasLong bucked the move, up 0.09%, after signing a liquefied gas contract with Cheniere for 0.8 million tonnes a year over twenty-two years.

The money leaving energy went into regulated names: Edison InternationalShort up 4.06%, PG&EShort 1.92% and Constellation EnergyShort 1.59%. Uranium EnergyShort reported its fiscal year, with fourth-quarter output up 157% and no debt, and rose 0.87%, while NuScaleShort lost 1.90%.

According to market reports the FTSE MIB closed almost unchanged, up 0.09%; the FTSE MIB ETF we follow, listed in Paris, closed down 0.24%. Energy bills were the Italian story of the day. Plenitude, Eni's power and gas arm, will offer from 1 October a 30% discount on its main fixed-price tariff, with the price locked for two years, just as the power bill for vulnerable customers rises 37.3% in the fourth quarter. Enel and A2A replied by pointing to offers already on the market at even lower prices. Eni stockLong lost 1.18%, more because of crude than because of the tariff, Enel stockShort gained 0.76% and A2ALong slipped 0.40%. With oil lower, TenarisLong fell 2.02% and SaipemShort 1.49%.

Poste Italiane published the final results of its offer for Telecom Italia: acceptances stopped at 85.82% of the share capital, below the 90% that would have allowed a squeeze-out and a delisting, which will now have to take another route. Telecom ItaliaShort lost 3.67% and Poste ItalianeShort 3.09%. StellantisShort fell 3.48% without any fresh news: market reports went back over the early-September halt at Mirafiori and Berenberg's mid-month downgrade, while the standoff with the Canadian union Unifor over the contract that expired on 20 September remains open. On the upside FincantieriShort rose 4.56% to new highs after a volatility halt, STMicroelectronicsShort 2.55% with European tech, AvioShort 2.85% on an Equita upgrade, PrysmianShort 1.84%, FinecoBankShort 1.52%, CampariLong 1.45% and Ferrari stockLong 1.18% as Jefferies reiterated its buy. NexiLong lost 0.98% despite Moody's upgrading it to investment grade. The banks gave up little: UniCreditLong down 0.57%, Banco BPMShort 0.82%, Monte dei PaschiLong and MediobancaLong 0.35%, Intesa SanpaoloLong 0.13%.

In Europe the AI supply chain was buying electricity. InfineonShort was Frankfurt's best stock, up 4.83%, after a supply deal with Eaton for modules used in new solid-state transformers for data centres, and Siemens EnergyShort followed with a 3.51% gain. In Paris LegrandLong rose 6.08% after presenting a 2030 plan with 32% of sales from data centres, lifting Schneider ElectricShort 2.01%. SiemensShort gained 1.27%.

On the other side was fiscal policy: the French 2027 budget plans to raise the tax on long-distance transport infrastructure from 4.6% to 12.2%, and VinciShort lost 2.38%. In London British American TobaccoShort fell 1.87% after guiding 2026 revenue towards the low end of its range, ExperianShort 1.79% and BarclaysShort 0.74%. In Frankfurt BayerLong was the worst performer, down 3.78% with no news of its own, Mercedes-BenzShort lost 1.85% after a Berenberg target cut and BMWShort 1.23%, while VolkswagenShort edged up 0.23% and SAPLong 0.71%. OrangeShort slipped 1.51%.

On Tuesday the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort lost 0.51%, the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.42% and the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.24%, while the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort was flat. All four remain under their weekly sell signal, with prices between 2.12% (Milan) and 2.81% (Paris) below the level that judges it.

Yesterday three of the four baskets sat on the floor of their no-trade zone. Today Paris and London have dropped out of it, 0.43% and 0.36% below, and the Paris daily signal has turned to sell; Frankfurt is exactly on the floor, while Milan still has 0.36% of room and remains the only one with its daily signal on buy. Paris, a sell since 24 August, has its short up 4.07%, Milan 0.60% and London 0.12%, while Frankfurt is at break-even.

The cohort of new buy signals was born with Friday 25 September's close, 11 signals of which 5 tradable, and we published it in full yesterday. Today we report only what changed: three stocks crossed their entry price and one flipped its daily signal. No stock left the cohort and none reported earnings. The session was kinder than Monday for almost all of them: ArmLong recovered 3.65% and the semiconductor ETF SOXXLong 1.19%, though both remain below their entry.

The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Four companies in our universe report over the next seven days. The name that matters most is MicronLong, tonight after the close: its results will move the whole semiconductor supply chain, the part of the market where our model has just opened new buy signals. Thursday 1 October brings AccentureLong and NikeShort, and Wednesday 7 Applied DigitalShort.

Wednesday 30 September

Micron Technology Long

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

Wednesday 7 October

Applied Digital Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.18%, and its close below the daily Reversal Point turned the short-term signal to sell; that level now sits 1.04% above the price. It remains below its no-trade zone, 0.76% under the floor, and 1.95% below its all-time high. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, gained 0.19% and held its daily level, 0.43% above it: it is the only one of the two with both horizons on buy.

On targets the two baskets remain in opposite phases. SPY has already taken all three windows and is managed on the trailing stop, with the weekly Reversal Point 0.80% below the price. QQQ is in its seventh week, just above its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead.