Stock market crash today, ETF and stock technical analysis: Wall Street's worst session since 2020, AMD stock falls 17.26% and Nvidia 9.26%, AppLovin jumps 31.04%; in Milan STMicroelectronics stock drops 9.33%
The stock market crash today has a date and a cause: on Thursday 5 November Wall Street had its worst session since 2020. In twenty-four hours the market reversed its reading of the midterm vote: on Wednesday it sold the companies that build data centres and bought the ones that use them, on Thursday it sold the whole artificial intelligence theme. ETF technical analysis says it in one line: the technology ETF XLK lost 8.00%, the industrials ETF XLI 4.12%, and no US sector closed higher; semiconductor stocks lost 12.1%. On the Milan market, closed before the rout, STMicroelectronics stock fell 9.33%.
Two forces at once. One is political: the new Democratic Congress raises fears of rules on artificial intelligence and computing centres. The other is concrete: Microsoft announced a review of the data centre projects it considers risky on cost and delays. Chips paid the price, AMD stock down 17.26% and Nvidia stock down 9.26%, memory too, Sandisk down 22.26%, and the computing capacity providers. Only companies with news of their own went the other way: AppLovin stock up 31.04% on its results.
Our measure: US equity volatility rose 70% in one session and 90% over four weeks. That is the spike that triggers our model's regime alert, and it changes the reading of every signal born before it: in the coming days every new buy should be taken with caution. But the spike stayed in stocks: Treasury volatility rose only 4% and the US ten-year yield fell. The market repriced a theme, not growth.
This morning the rout spread to Asia: Tokyo lost about 6% and entered a bear market, ending its worst week since 1991, and Seoul had to halt trading on the size of the drop. US futures are mixed, government bonds are drawing safe-haven demand and Europe is expected lower: tonight's weekly close will show whether the stock market crash stays an episode.
In Europe, Milan closed before the US slide: the FTSE MIB ETF fell 1.22%, with STMicroelectronics stock down 9.33% and utilities higher. The week closes tonight, and that close decides the model's long on the S&P 500 and its short on the Italian basket.
- ETF technical analysis: technology down 8%, defensives hold
- Commodities: oil, gold, copper and gas
- Artificial intelligence: AMD, Nvidia, Micron, IREN
- Earnings: AppLovin, Unity, Toyota, Fastly
- Milan: STMicroelectronics, Prysmian, Enel
- Europe: Rheinmetall, Infineon, Diageo
- European indices: Milan below the level
- This week's new signals: the changes
- Upcoming earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- SPY and QQQ technical analysis
ETF technical analysis: technology down 8.00%, industrials down 4.12%, consumer discretionary down 3.83%; communication services, utilities and staples hold
An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that buys a whole basket of stocks in one go: following sector ETFs is the fastest way to see where money is moving. On Thursday money left almost everything, and the ranking only says who lost the least.
In the US XLK, the technology ETF, lost 8.00%, closing on its low, XLI, industrials, 4.12%, XLY, consumer discretionary, 3.83%, XLF, financials, 2.87%, XLV, healthcare, 2.50%. Limiting the damage were XLC, communication services, down 0.59%, XLU, utilities, down 0.71%, and XLP, consumer staples, down 0.75%. MAGS, the ETF on the seven big tech names, fell 4.88%; GLD, the gold ETF, rose 0.81%.
In Europe, which closed before the slide, EXH9, the European utilities ETF, rose 0.92%, EXV4, healthcare, 0.21%, EXV1, banks, 0.10%; lower were EXV3, technology, down 3.16%, and EXH4, industrials, down 1.07%.
The global ETF technical analysis, with every basket we follow one by one, is on the dedicated Market Pulse page.
Commodities: WTI crude, gold, copper and TTF gas, with the day's, week's and month's change and our model's weekly and monthly signal
WTI crude oil: up 2.72% on the day, down 13.06% on the week, down 13.06% on the month. Weekly on buy since 20 July, 2.46% below the level; monthly on buy since March 2026.
Gold: up 0.69% on the day, up 5.49% on the week, up 5.49% on the month. Weekly on sell since 28 September, 1.91% below the level; monthly on sell since June 2026.
Copper: down 2.47% on the day, down 3.27% on the week, down 3.27% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 April, 2.96% below the level; monthly on buy since March 2025. The current weekly candle is turning on sell, provisional until the close.
TTF gas: up 2.95% on the day, down 12.76% on the week, down 12.76% on the month. Weekly on buy since 13 July, 1.99% above the level; monthly on buy since January 2026.
Sandisk stock down 22.26%, Micron down 17.46%, AMD down 17.26%, Marvell down 16.43%, Nvidia down 9.26%; IREN down 16.95%, Dell down 14.89%, Vertiv down 14.02%
The hardest blow landed on memory and chips: SandiskShort down 22.26%, MicronShort down 17.46%, Western DigitalShort down 17.35%, AMDShort down 17.26% despite a revenue outlook of 17 billion, MarvellShort down 16.43%, Applied MaterialsShort down 13.58%, ArmShort down 13.08%, TSMCShort down 10.78%, BroadcomShort down 10.43%, IntelShort down 10.33%, NvidiaShort down 9.26%, closing on its low. AMD's chief executive called the market's reaction short-sighted.
Behind the chips, the chain that sells and powers computing capacity. Microsoft said it is pulling back from its riskiest data centre projects, and the suppliers collapsed: IRENShort down 16.95%, NebiusShort down 14.94%, CoreWeaveShort down 9.83%, DellShort down 14.89%, VertivShort down 14.02%, Quanta ServicesShort down 12.30%, Bloom EnergyShort down 16.41%, GE VernovaShort down 7.48%, EatonShort down 7.38%. The big platforms held up better: MicrosoftLong down 3.58%, AppleLong down 1.53%, AmazonShort down 2.19%, AlphabetShort down 2.20%; TeslaLong fell 10.77% on fears that Congress will hinder Musk's businesses.
Why now. The vote redrew the permitting map. According to Cleanview data reported by Bloomberg, about 40% of the data centre capacity planned in the United States is due to be built in states where newly elected governors, in Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, New Mexico and Texas, have promised to stop or pause construction; Texas's governor-elect said she wants to halt it until safeguards are in place. On top of that come 46 local ballot measures that stall projects, at least 17 of them outright bans. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, expected at 1.4 trillion dollars, could fall 5-7% in 2027, and that up to 10 gigawatts of capacity may not come online on schedule. The worry about debt and the hundreds of billions being spent was already there: the vote gave it a political shape.
Analysts are split. For some it is a reset of growth expectations to more sustainable levels, with memory demand still above supply, and so an opportunity; for others it is the start of a longer stretch of volatility.
AppLovin stock up 31.04%, Unity up 14.93%, Toyota up 9.35%; Fastly down 26.88%, Dutch Bros down 21.41%, Snap down 14.02%, Expedia down 13.74%
In a session of broad selling the gains came only from company news. AppLovinShort closed up 31.04%, the best in our universe, on cash generation and an expanded buyback. UnityShort rose 14.93%, closing near its high, between results above expectations and reports of talks with Silver Lake and the Saudi sovereign fund to take the company over: until there is an offer, the price follows the rumours. ToyotaLong rose 9.35% on a raised annual forecast, thanks to currency and costs.
Lower after results were FastlyLong, down 26.88% on price target cuts, Dutch BrosShort down 21.41%, SnapLong down 14.02%, ExpediaShort down 13.74%. Enterprise software and cybersecurity followed the sector: Palo Alto NetworksShort down 9.59%, CrowdStrikeLong down 9.88%, PalantirLong down 9.73%. After the close AirbnbLong reported with a raised outlook and ConocoPhillipsLong with an 11% higher dividend; Oscar HealthLong returned to profit.
Milan stock exchange: STMicroelectronics stock down 9.33%, Fincantieri down 4.77%, Stellantis down 4.49%, Prysmian down 4.02%, Buzzi down 3.88%; Tenaris up 3.66%, Amplifon up 2.76%, Campari up 2.15%, Enel up 0.92%
Milan closed down 1.0%, before the Wall Street slide. Selling followed the same chain as in the US: STMicroelectronics stockShort down 9.33% with semiconductors, FincantieriShort down 4.77% despite its agreement with Spain's Navantia, Stellantis stockShort down 4.49%, Prysmian stockShort down 4.02%, BuzziLong down 3.88% on nine-month results with guidance confirmed, Leonardo stockShort down 3.45% with European defence, BperShort down 2.77%, MonclerShort down 2.07%.
Defensives and a few names with their own story held: TenarisLong up 3.66%, AmplifonLong up 2.76%, FinecoShort up 2.43%, Campari stockLong up 2.15%, closing near its high, AzimutShort up 1.40%, GeneraliShort up 1.23%, TernaLong up 1.21%, Enel stockLong up 0.92%, A2ALong up 0.91%. Among banks UniCreditShort fell 1.46%, two days before its results; Monte dei PaschiShort fell 1.50% · under a public tender offer by Intesa Sanpaolo at €1.25 and 1.664 Intesa Sanpaolo shares per share: the price follows the offer, not the market; MediobancaShort fell 1.54% · under a public tender offer by Intesa Sanpaolo at a price not yet set per share: the price follows the offer, not the market.
European stocks: Rheinmetall down 16.14%, Infineon down 8.54%, BAE Systems down 5.41%, Siemens Energy down 4.70%; BASF up 3.30%, Bayer up 3.65%, Diageo up 3.17%, National Grid up 1.62%
In Europe the heaviest session was RheinmetallShort's, down 16.14%: solid quarterly growth but another cut to its revenue guidance on contract and testing delays. Defence went with it, BAE SystemsLong down 5.41%, and so did data centre technology, InfineonShort down 8.54%, Siemens EnergyShort down 4.70%, Schneider ElectricShort down 1.60%; Deutsche TelekomShort fell 2.09% despite raising its guidance.
On the other side, the defensives: BASFLong up 3.30%, BayerLong up 3.65%, DiageoLong up 3.17%, the best in the FTSE 100 on its quarterly update, National GridLong up 1.62% on half-year results and a raised outlook, UnileverLong up 1.24%, SAPLong up 0.68%. Siemens HealthineersLong closed at the high of its move on results day, after a lower open.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF down 1.22%, the DAX ETF down 0.46%, the FTSE 100 ETF down 0.21%, the CAC 40 ETF up 0.19%
On Thursday the FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 1.22%, the DAXShort ETF 0.46%, the FTSE 100Long ETF 0.21%; the CAC 40Short ETF gained 0.19%. Europe closed before the US slide and still has to price it this morning. 75% of DAX companies are above their 200-day average, against 34% of the whole German market.
On the Italian basket the model's short is up 3.11%, on sell since 31 August, and the price is back 0.40% below the weekly level after rising above it on Wednesday. On the DAX and the CAC 40, both short, the weekly candle in progress is still turning to buy.
This week's new buy signals: the changes in the fourth session, with industrials and defence lower and utilities and Bayer higher
Last Friday's cohort counts 23 new buy signals, 15 of them actionable. It is an almost entirely defensive cohort, utilities, health, insurers, and on the day of the US rout it held up better than the market. Below are the most important changes.
Above entry, among others, Sanofi, Allianz, Abbott, Hera and Danone; below, besides Honeywell and RTX, SLB and Halliburton.
Upcoming earnings: Moderna on Friday 6 November, UniCredit on Sunday 8, Barrick, Constellation Energy and Occidental on Monday 9, A2A, Inwit and CoreWeave on Tuesday 10, Enel, Applied Materials and Cisco on Thursday 12
15 companies in our universe report between today and Thursday, among those we follow most closely. Today ModernaLong; Sunday UniCreditShort; Monday BarrickShort, Constellation EnergyLong and OccidentalLong; Tuesday A2ALong, InwitLong and CoreWeaveShort; Thursday EnelLong, Applied MaterialsShort and CiscoShort.
Friday 6 November
Moderna Long
Sunday 8 November
UniCredit Short
Monday 9 November
Barrick Mining Short
Constellation Energy Long
Occidental Petroleum Long
Take-Two Short
Tuesday 10 November
A2A Long
Banca Mediolanum Short
INWIT Long
Recordati Long · under a public tender offer by CVC and GBL at €53 per share: the price follows the offer, not the market
CoreWeave Short
Wednesday 11 November
Hera Long
Thursday 12 November
Enel Long
Applied Materials Short
Cisco Systems Short
This week's economic calendar: US payrolls and consumer sentiment on Friday 6 November, German trade balance on Monday 9, US inflation on Tuesday 10
The macro events of the coming days that can move the indices, in Central European time. Today US payrolls and consumer sentiment; on Tuesday October US inflation.
Friday 6 November
14:30 · United States · October payrolls and unemployment high impact
16:00 · United States · University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary high impact
Monday 9 November
08:00 · Germany · German September trade balance high impact
Tuesday 10 November
14:30 · United States · US October inflation high impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 18 November · Fed: minutes of the October meeting
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
SPY and QQQ technical analysis, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq 100 ETF: SPY down 4.41%, QQQ down 6.49%
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 4.41%, closing near its low, 6.2% below its all-time high. The daily turned to sell and the price fell 5.25% below the Reversal Point that judges the long born in April: the weekly candle in progress is turning to sell, and tonight's close decides. The long is still up 7.88%.
QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, fell 6.49%, closing exactly on its low, 15.2% below its record. The model's short is up 8.84% and on Thursday it passed both its targets. IWMShort, the Russell 2000 ETF, fell 4.59%, short and up 8.46%. Only 73 of the 502 S&P 500 companies rose in the session.
The big picture: the day the market sold artificial intelligence
On Thursday Wall Street had its worst session since 2020: the midterm vote and Microsoft's data centre review drove selling in chips, memory, computing centres and their power chain. Equity volatility rose 70% and our model switched on its regime alert. Europe, closed earlier, held with utilities and pharma. The model is short the Nasdaq 100 and collecting, long the S&P 500 with its defence at stake tonight, short the Italian basket.
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