ETF and stock technical analysis: Banco BPM stock falls 3.70% as Milan lags Europe, the semiconductor ETF rebounds 1.73% and Amazon stock gains 4.98%
On Monday 19 October the two sides of the Atlantic went opposite ways, and the ETFs showed it more clearly than the indices. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB lost 1.92%, closing in the lower part of the session, and the Milan market was the weakest in continental Europe: after a weekend of unrest in France, according to the morning review, the French 10-year yield rose 8.6 basis points and the Italian one 7.9, and the European banks ETF EXV1 gave up 2.02%. On Wall Street the semiconductor ETF SOXX rose 1.73%, snapping eight straight losing sessions, the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ gained 1.21% and the S&P 500 ETF SPY 0.42%, while the utilities ETF XLU lost 2.01% with the US 10-year yield above 5%. The BTP-Bund spread widened 4.7% in a single session and 21% over four weeks: on Friday Moody's reviews its rating on France.
In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan Banco BPM stock fell 3.70%, Unipol 3.19%, Stellantis stock 3.24% on its Leapmotor deal, Intesa Sanpaolo 2.16% and UniCredit 2.15%; Eni stock rose 0.69% ahead of its results. On Wall Street Amazon stock gained 4.98% after a Morgan Stanley top-pick call, Datadog stock 5.36%, Palantir 4.36% and Tesla stock 3.76% on the eve of earnings, while Constellation Energy slipped 3.01%. In Paris Société Générale lost 3.41%, in London Barclays 3.50%.
Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names. It has been short the Italian basket MIB since 31 August, and the trade is up 6.02%; on the banks the short on Banco BPM is up 17.45%, on Société Générale 18.19%, on Barclays 15.94%, on BNP Paribas 14.85%, on Fineco 10.36%, and on Stellantis 34.53%. On the long side Accenture is up 42.80%, Palantir 12.87%, Eni 13.83% and SPY 12.81%; among the older shorts Cipher is up 55.39% and FMC, down 5.30% yesterday, 46.88%.
- ETF technical analysis: European banks, FTSE MIB, semiconductors, utilities, the broad-index funds
- Europe: Société Générale, Barclays, BNP Paribas, RWE, Engie, Capgemini
- Semiconductor stocks: Amazon, Datadog, Palantir, Western Digital, Nvidia
- Rates and sectors: Constellation Energy, NuScale, JPMorgan, FMC
- Milan: Banco BPM, Unipol, Stellantis, Intesa Sanpaolo, Eni
- European indices: four lower, Milan below its October low
- This week's new buy signals
- This week's earnings
- This week's economic calendar
- Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ
ETF technical analysis: the European banks ETF and the FTSE MIB ETF fall, the semiconductor ETF and the consumer discretionary ETF bounce, the utilities ETF pays for the 10-year yield
An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks a basket: an index, a sector, a commodity. It trades like a share, which is why most investors use it to follow the markets. On Monday the baskets told the story of a session split in two.
In Europe finance took the hit. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks, the European banks ETF, lost 2.02% and is down almost 8% on the month; our model has been short since 28 September and the trade is up 3.78%. European utilities through EXH9 fell 2.06%, basic resources through EXV6 2.12%, telecoms through EXV2 1.11%, industrials through EXH4 1.06%, autos through EXHG 1.05%. The only European sector in the green was technology, EXV3, up 0.83% at its session high. MIB, the Amundi FTSE MIB, the FTSE MIB ETF, closed down 1.92%, in the lower part of the session and 3.65% below its weekly level.
In the US the session went the other way. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the semiconductor ETF, rose 1.73% but closed near its session low and stays short, 9.52% below the weekly level. XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, the consumer discretionary ETF, climbed 1.78% on Amazon and Tesla, and the week's new candle puts it on a provisional buy. XLK, the US technology ETF, gained 1.36%, VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, 1.26%, and MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, 1.67%, long since July and up 8.31%. On the other side XLU, the utilities ETF, lost 2.01%, closing near its low, XLRE, the real estate ETF, 1.16%, and XLF, the US financials ETF, 0.83%: the sectors that pay for the cost of money. XLE, the US energy ETF, slipped 0.64% and stays long since July, up 17.55%; XLV, the US health care ETF, down 0.60%, is up 17.52% since 26 May. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, lost 0.61%: the model has been short since 21 September and is up 3.49%.
Our ETF technical analysis page, with every basket we follow, sits in the dedicated Market Pulse.
The broad-index ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the major benchmarks, the ones behind savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Monday the US funds edged higher, while the international ones slipped with Europe.
US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, gained 0.42% and stays long since 6 April, up 12.81%, with the weekly level 0.83% below the price; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are up 12.84% and 12.63%. XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, is up 0.33%, while OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and the two broad Russell funds, IWB and IWV, sit just below their entry. On the total market the model stays short since 14 September through VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total market ETF, ITOT, SCHB and SPTM, all between 1.2% and 1.7% below their weekly level. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, rose 0.31% and the short is up 8.35%.
Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, IXUS, SPDW and SCHF stay short, with gains between 1.8% and 2.5%; VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, lost 0.99% and the short is up 2.02%, like IEFA and IDEV. VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF, short since Friday, sits just above the entry of the short.
Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, SCHE and SPEM barely moved in their first session after turning to sell; IEMG gained 0.72%. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, stays long just below the entry.
Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, and DGRO slipped in the first session of their buy signal, while USMV was flat: all three stay above their weekly level.
European banks and sovereign debt: Société Générale down 3.41%, Barclays stock down 3.50%, Deutsche Bank 2.76%, BNP Paribas 2.48%; RWE down 3.15% and Engie 2.78% with the utilities
According to the morning review, after a weekend of unrest in France, with thousands of arrests and the first curfews, the 10-year OAT yield rose 8.6 basis points to 4.94% and the spread over the Bund widened towards 147 basis points, the most since 5 October. What matters for markets is the government's ability to cut the deficit, and on Friday Moody's reviews its rating on France. Banks, which hold their own country's debt, took the first blow: Société GénéraleShort down 3.41%, BNP ParibasShort 2.48%, Deutsche BankShort 2.76%, AllianzShort 1.84%. The contagion reached London: BarclaysShort down 3.50%, the weakest UK bank two days before its results, HSBCShort 2.16%, LloydsShort 1.72%, PrudentialShort 1.68%.
Utilities paid twice, for rates and politics: RWELong down 3.15%, the sector's worst, EngieShort 2.78% closing near its low, National GridLong 2.30%, E.ONShort 1.93%. Miners fell with no news of their own, GlencoreShort down 3.31% and Rio TintoShort 1.48%. Defence was sold with everything else: RheinmetallShort lost 2.79% despite winning the Mangalia shipyard, AirbusShort 2.25%, BAE SystemsShort 1.56%, Rolls-RoyceShort 1.41%; in Frankfurt SiemensShort fell 1.64% and BayerShort 2.38%. There were few places to hide: CapgeminiLong rose 1.48% on the IT services and AI theme, VolkswagenShort 1.16%, SAPLong 0.31% ahead of its results, and in London CompassLong gained 1.26% and TescoLong 0.75%, both at their session highs. Luxury slipped with LVMHShort down 1.76%, EssilorLuxotticaShort 1.52% and KeringShort 0.92%.
Semiconductor and tech stocks: Amazon stock up 4.98%, Western Digital 6.09%, Datadog 5.36%, Palantir stock up 4.36%, Marvell 4.06%, Nvidia stocks up 1.38%
According to the morning review, the semiconductor ETF broke a run of eight losing sessions, the longest since 2008. The name of the day was AmazonShort, up 4.98% at its session high: Morgan Stanley named it the sector's top pick, and Amazon stocks led the megacaps; on the same day the company launched TorchNeuron, an open-source tool that eases the move onto its own AI chips. NvidiaLong lagged the group, up 1.38%. The leaders were the stocks with news of their own: DatadogLong up 5.36% on a Bernstein upgrade, PalantirLong 4.36% on a new federal partnership, AccentureLong 3.16% on its deal with Google to bring AI agents to US federal agencies, IntelShort 2.43% on a JPMorgan upgrade.
The rest rose with the sector: Western DigitalShort up 6.09% and SandiskShort 5.53% on memory, MarvellLong 4.06%, MicronShort 2.97%, ZscalerLong 2.48%, BroadcomShort 1.78%, TSMCShort 1.84%, AMDLong 1.76%, AristaShort 3.37%. Among the compute providers Applied DigitalShort gained 6.65%, TeraWulfShort 3.25%, NebiusShort 2.88%, IRENShort 2.74%, Super MicroShort 1.49%; CoreWeaveShort lost 0.44%. TeslaLong climbed 3.76% ahead of Wednesday's results. Among the megacaps MicrosoftLong rose 0.84% and AlphabetShort 1.05%; NetflixShort fell 0.96% hours before its results and after the exit of its film chief, MetaLong 0.55% and AppleLong 0.15%.
Constellation Energy stock down 3.01%, Quanta Services 2.13%, NuScale 2.40%, JPMorgan stock down 1.82%, Charles Schwab 2.59%, FMC 5.30%
According to the morning review, the US 10-year yield rose 6.1 basis points to 5.14%, its sixth session above 5%, and the most rate-sensitive sectors paid the bill. Constellation EnergyLong lost 3.01% with no news of its own, closing near its low, Quanta ServicesLong 2.13%, GE VernovaShort 1.39%; in small modular nuclear NuScaleShort fell 2.40%, in uranium Energy FuelsShort 3.66%. Rare earths saw profit-taking: MP MaterialsShort down 3.04% and USA Rare EarthShort down 4.27%, both at their session lows.
European contagion reached US banks: Charles SchwabShort down 2.59%, Wells FargoShort 2.47%, CitigroupShort 2.07%, JPMorganShort 1.82%, Bank of AmericaShort 1.64%, Goldman SachsShort 0.62%, and among the digital brokers RobinhoodShort 2.38%, SoFiShort 1.72%, CoinbaseLong 2.72%. The most serious single case was FMCShort, down 5.30%: Citigroup halved its price target after a write-down and talks with banks over loan covenants. Defensive health care slipped, GileadLong down 2.00%, AmgenLong 1.75%, MerckLong 1.59%, Eli LillyLong 1.33%, while UnitedHealthLong rose 1.36% and ModernaLong 4.07% on a higher price target. Consumer names gained too: PepsiCoShort up 1.58%, Dutch BrosShort 4.13%, CarnivalLong 2.12%.
Milan: Banco BPM stock down 3.70%, Unipol 3.19%, Stellantis stock down 3.24%, Intesa Sanpaolo stock down 2.16%, UniCredit 2.15%; Eni stock up 0.69%
Milan was the weakest market in continental Europe: according to the morning review the FTSE MIB closed down 1.55%, with the 10-year BTP yield up 7.9 basis points at 4.59% and the spread over the Bund widening from 109 to 112.5 basis points. Banks and insurers drove the session: Banco BPMShort lost 3.70%, the worst, UnipolShort 3.19%, GeneraliShort 2.26%, BPERShort 2.22%, Monte dei PaschiShort 2.18%, Intesa SanpaoloShort 2.16%, UniCreditShort 2.15%, FinecoShort 2.02%, MediobancaShort 1.95%. Intesa Sanpaolo's offer for Monte dei Paschi stays in the background, but the market sold the whole sector without distinction.
Outside finance StellantisShort fell 3.24%: Leapmotor will build an electric car at the Zaragoza plant, and the market read it as a sign of dependence on the Chinese partner. LeonardoShort lost 2.22% with European defence, PrysmianShort 2.10%, MFE-MediaForEuropeShort 2.71%, AvioShort 1.73%; among utilities EnelShort fell 1.90%, HeraShort 1.75%, A2ALong 0.96%, TernaShort 0.85%. Poste ItalianeShort, MonclerShort, FerrariShort and PirelliLong were lower too. Few stocks rose: EniLong, up 0.69% ahead of Friday's results, BuzziShort 1.37%, SaipemLong 0.22%, STMicroelectronicsShort 0.11%, NexiShort 0.16%.
European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF loses 1.92%, the DAX ETF 1.24%, the FTSE 100 ETF 1.06%, the CAC 40 ETF 1.05%
On Monday all four European indices closed lower. The FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 1.92%, closing below the low of 8 and 15 October, the DAXShort ETF 1.24%, the FTSE 100Long ETF 1.06%, the CAC 40Short ETF 1.05%, with its daily signal turning to sell. The UK basket remains the only one on a weekly buy, 2.41% above its level; the other three stay short, Milan 3.65% below its level, Frankfurt 2.13%, Paris 1.83%.
The model's short is up 6.02% on the Italian basket, held since 31 August, and 5.99% on the French one, since 24 August; on the German one, short since 14 September, the price is back exactly at the entry. The monthly signal of the FTSE MIB and the CAC 40 is on a provisional sell in October: the close on the 30th decides. In Frankfurt the index holds up on its biggest names: 65% of DAX companies trade above their 200-day average, against 33% of the whole German market.
This week's new buy signals: Compass starts above its entry, Pirelli turns to sell on the daily, utilities and Diageo below
The weekend analysis published 42 new buy signals, confirmed by the close of Friday 16 October, and 22 are tradable: consumer goods, utilities, financial services, health care, energy and above all Europe, from DiageoLong to CompassLong, from RELXLong to Dassault SystèmesLong.
From Tuesday to Friday this card reports only what changes. On day one there are five changes: a daily signal turning to sell, Pirelli, one stock starting clearly above its entry, Compass, and three that slipped below their entry with their sectors. None reported results and none left the group.
This week's earnings: Netflix, GE, RTX and Northrop today, Meta, Tesla, SAP and IBM on Wednesday 21, Procter & Gamble, Lockheed and Barclays on Thursday 22, Eni on Friday 23, Visa and Coca-Cola on Tuesday 27
52 companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today come NetflixShort, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, United AirlinesShort and Deutsche BörseLong; on Wednesday 21 MetaLong, TeslaLong, SAPLong, IBMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, CMELong and Kinder MorganLong; on Thursday 22 Procter & GambleLong, Lockheed MartinShort, BarclaysShort, NebiusShort, Western DigitalShort and HoneywellShort; on Friday 23 EniLong; on Tuesday 27 VisaLong, Coca-ColaLong, BoeingShort, S&P GlobalLong, PayPalShort and HSBCShort.
Tuesday 20 October
Netflix Short
GE Aerospace Short
RTX Short
Northrop Grumman Short
Intuitive Surgical Long
Halliburton Short
United Airlines Short
Iridium Communications Short
Deutsche Boerse Long
Wednesday 21 October
Meta Platforms Long
Tesla Long
SAP Long
IBM Long
Texas Instruments Long
Abbott Laboratories Short
Danaher Long
CME Long
Kinder Morgan Long
AT&T Short
CSX Short
QuantumScape Short
Thursday 22 October
Procter & Gamble Long
Lockheed Martin Short
Nebius Short
Barclays Short
Nokia Short
Western Digital Short
Honeywell International Short
Valero Energy Long
Newmont Short
Spotify Technology Short
Bloom Energy Long
PG&E Short
Banco Bradesco Long
Friday 23 October
Eni Long
SLB Short
American Express Short
Monday 26 October
Verizon Communications Short
Gerdau Long
Tuesday 27 October
Visa Long
Coca-Cola Long
Boeing Short
S&P Global Long
PayPal Short
Robinhood Markets Short
SoFi Technologies Short
Royal Caribbean Long
Baker Hughes Short
Ecolab Long
Enphase Energy Short
HSBC Short
Hypera Long
This week's economic calendar: UK jobs and ZEW sentiment today, UK inflation on Wednesday, flash PMIs on Friday, Ifo on Monday; then the Fed and the ECB
The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. The Fed is in its quiet period ahead of the 27-28 October meeting, and the US week has no first-tier data: the calendar belongs to the UK and Germany, and on Friday to the flash PMIs. Off the calendar, Moody's reviews its rating on France on Friday.
Tuesday 20 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · Labour market: the unemployment rate, the first of the week's UK releases medium impact
11:00 · Germany · October ZEW analyst sentiment: the month's first survey on the German economy, after a heavy session for Frankfurt medium impact
Wednesday 21 October
08:00 · United Kingdom · September inflation: the last price figure before the Bank of England on 5 November medium impact
Friday 23 October
09:30 · Germany · October flash PMIs, first in Germany and then in the UK: the month's first reading on manufacturing and services activity medium impact
Monday 26 October
10:00 · Germany · October Ifo business climate medium impact
Further ahead, the central banks
Wednesday 28 October · 19:00 · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Thursday 29 October · 14:15 · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later
Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision
Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision
Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.
Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY gains 0.42% and keeps its weekly buy, QQQ gains 1.21% and stays short
SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, gained 0.42% but closed near its session low, on 38.7 million shares against an average of 42.0: it sits 1.94% below its all-time high. The daily signal has been on sell since 14 October; the weekly one stays long, in its twenty-eighth week, with the level 0.83% below the price. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, gained 1.21%, almost three times as much, and broke above the congestion zone of the latest analysis, but closed in the lower part of the range on 37.2 million shares, about average. It stays short on the weekly, 4.16% below the level, and 5.83% below its record.
On targets the two are at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three scale-out windows and is managed with the weekly Inversion Point, which rose on Monday. QQQ has a short born on Friday from the 707 area, with the first target 7% below the price and the stop on the weekly level about 5% above.
The big picture: two risks, two continents
On Monday European political risk and the US cost of money, which had been moving together for weeks, came apart. In Europe the unrest in France pushed up French and Italian government bond yields, and the banks that hold them lost between 2% and 3.7%; Milan was the weakest market. In the US a 10-year yield above 5% hit utilities and real estate, while chips bounced after eight losing sessions. Our model was already short the European banks, the Italian basket and European utilities, and stays short the technology that bounced: the rebound closed in the lower half of the session, and sides are decided on Friday.
What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.
The full analyses behind the cards on this page.
* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).