ETF and stock technical analysis: the technology ETF is the only sector to rise, the S&P 500 ETF ends the quarter lower and Micron stock posts a record quarter

An ETF is a listed basket: it is bought and sold on an exchange like a share, but each unit stands for a slice of an index, a sector or a commodity. That is why checking which ETFs rose and which fell in a session is the quickest way to see where the market put money and where it took it away.

On Wednesday the answer was clear. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gained 0.64%, the only one of the eleven sectors to rise, and with it VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, up 0.66%, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, up 0.66%, and QDVE, iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, up 0.57%. Our model has been a buyer of all four since 10 August, with gains between 2.54% and 6.18%. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, rose 0.21% ahead of Micron's results, and MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, 0.42%, on a buy since 13 July that is up 7.14%.

At the other end, defensive sectors were the worst: XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, the consumer staples ETF, down 1.53%, XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, down 1.35%, XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, down 1.27%, XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, down 1.13%, XLRE, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, down 1.04%, and XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, down 0.68%. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, was flat, down 0.06%, even with crude up 1.16%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, slipped 0.54%, and the model's short, opened on 21 September, is up 3.20%. In Europe EXV6, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS, the European basic resources ETF, rose 0.97% and EXH9, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS, 0.51%; lower were EXV2, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS, down 1.30%, EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, down 0.78%, and EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, down 0.77%. For the full ETF technical analysis of every fund we follow, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

The broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. Quarter-end moved them more than usual, above all outside the United States.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, is up 12.24%, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 12.26% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 12.11%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, buys since 3 August, closed unchanged and remain at their entry. On the whole market the signal has been a sell since 14 September, and the six ETFs in that group lost between 0.21% and 0.28%: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets outside the US. This is the family the session hit hardest. VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, lost 1.20% and IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, 0.60%, both on roughly three and a half times their normal volume: they have been sells since 14 September together with IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, and the short is up between 1.13% and 1.60%. VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, and IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, remain buys since 6 April with gains between 4.01% and 4.75%, after declines of 0.65% to 0.73%. VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, lost 0.80% and the weekly candle in progress is turning its signal to sell, provisional until Friday. SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity, buys since 10 August, are below their entry. VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, a buy since 6 April, is up 8.88%.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, and SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, have been buys since 13 April and remain just above their entry after losing about half a point; IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, down 0.89%, and SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, buys since 17 August, are just below. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, was the only one of the family to rise, up 0.93%.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September and the short is working: up 2.56%, 3.64% and 2.18% after declines of 0.36% to 0.82%.

After the close MicronLong reported its fiscal fourth quarter, and the numbers have no precedent for a memory maker: according to the company's release, revenue was 54.23 billion dollars, about five times the figure of a year earlier, with net income of 37.70 billion. Data-centre revenue went from 1.6 to 18.0 billion in the quarter. For the current quarter the company guides to 61.5 billion, and the full fiscal year closed at 133.19 billion against 37.38 the year before. During the session Micron stocks had closed unchanged: the market's answer comes today.

The rest of the supply chain spent the day waiting. Intel stockLong gained 3.71%, AMD stockLong 0.69% after a 1.2-billion-dollar order for infrastructure built on its processors, and Nvidia stockLong 0.51%; according to an industry research note, OpenAI's fastest service is said to run on its chips rather than on those of a recently listed rival. CoreWeaveShort rose 1.38% and MarvellLong 0.36%. QualcommLong, Applied MaterialsShort and TSMCLong were flat, while NebiusLong lost 0.62%, BroadcomShort 1.10% and ArmLong 1.37%.

The Pentagon awarded BoeingShort the 20-billion-dollar contract for the Navy's next carrier-based fighter, unblocking a programme that had been stuck for years. Northrop Grumman stockShort, the loser, fell 4.19%; Boeing stock closed down 0.87% on a weak day for industrials as a whole, with RTXShort down 0.69% and Lockheed MartinShort 0.58%.

In health care Moderna stockLong lost 5.35% after Citigroup cut its rating to sell, with an 80-dollar target; Moderna stocks remain well above our entry. Eli LillyShort fell 2.33% after mid-stage data on its obesity combination, which delivered average weight loss of up to 23.3%, and Novo NordiskShort 1.04%. In digital advertising AppLovinShort lost 4.98% after suing Unity SoftwareLong, up 3.05%, to halt data collection by one of its services. The latest version of Apple's operating system blocks, in its browser, the domains The Trade DeskShort uses to serve ads: Apple stockLong rose 1.10%.

Software bounced almost in unison: AccentureLong up 3.53% ahead of its results, ServiceNowLong 3.13%, AdobeShort 2.90%, IntuitShort 2.87%, AutodeskShort 2.86% and SnowflakeLong 2.80%. Microsoft stockLong gained 0.77% after a broker raised its price target from 550 to 610 dollars. GameStopLong rose 3.75% after its chief executive bought 447,000 shares, while RobinhoodLong lost 3.20% and Meta stockLong 1.84%.

According to market reports, August inflation on the measure the Fed watches most closely came in at 0.2% on the month against 0.3% expected, and the odds of another rate hike at the end of October fell below 50%. On the same day second-quarter growth was revised higher and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.30%, above its 2007 peak. Bond volatility rose 3.61%, equity volatility 1.87%.

On Wall Street the data did not help the banks: MastercardShort down 2.15%, VisaLong 1.79%, Goldman Sachs stockShort 1.73%, JPMorganShort 1.24%, Bank of AmericaShort 0.96% and Berkshire HathawayLong 0.88%. In São Paulo the same number had the opposite effect, as relief over monetary policy expectations took hold: Itaú UnibancoLong up 4.68%, Banco do BrasilLong 4.67%, BradescoLong 3.64% and ItaúsaLong 3.11%. LocalizaLong gained 5.11%, while ValeShort, up 0.43%, and PetrobrasLong, down 0.35%, barely moved.

According to market reports the FTSE MIB closed down 0.84%; the FTSE MIB ETF we follow, listed in Paris, lost 0.77%. The Milan market was weighed down by September inflation, which on preliminary data rose to 4.2%, its highest in three years, and by the spread between Italian and German bonds, which widened 4.86% to 106 basis points. The story of the day was in the banks. S&P raised Banco BPM's rating to BBB+ and improved its outlook on BPER, yet Banco BPM stockShort lost 2.06% and BPERLong 0.35%, while Banca MediolanumShort rose 1.74% and FinecoBankShort 0.59% on nothing more than JP Morgan resuming coverage. Intesa SanpaoloLong fell 1.60%, Monte dei PaschiLong 1.38%, UniCreditLong 1.07% and MediobancaLong 0.90%; GeneraliLong lost 1.75% as yields rose.

Telecom ItaliaShort fell 2.58% with no company news, on 12.5 times its usual volume the day after Poste's offer closed; Poste ItalianeShort rose 1.04%. Eni stockLong lost 1.11% even with crude higher, Ferrari stockLong 1.60% after Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target while keeping a positive rating, DiaSorinLong 2.17% and Brunello CucinelliShort 2.00%. On the upside CampariLong gained 1.96%, PirelliShort 1.59%, InwitLong 1.34%, AmplifonShort 1.17% and NexiLong 0.87%. StellantisShort, down 0.24%, EnelShort, down 0.36%, and LeonardoShort, down 0.38%, hardly moved.

Preliminary September data put euro-area inflation back at 3.8%, a three-year high, with Germany at 3.3% and France at 3.4%, all above forecasts and almost entirely because of energy. The ECB president struck a cautious tone and the odds of a rate hike at the end of October fell below 30%, but the markets paid anyway. In Frankfurt SiemensShort lost 2.30%, Siemens EnergyShort 2.21%, BayerLong 1.90%, AllianzShort 1.54% and VolkswagenShort 0.82%. Against the trend were BMWShort, up 1.50%, RWELong, up 0.64%, BASFLong, up 0.48%, InfineonShort, up 0.34%, and SAPLong, up 0.18%; Mercedes-BenzShort was flat, down 0.17%.

In Paris TotalEnergiesLong lost 3.07% with no news in our review and despite higher crude, BNP ParibasShort 2.46%, Schneider ElectricShort 1.47%, VinciShort 1.43%, LVMHShort 1.17% and LegrandLong 1.01%. In London utilities rose after the government's energy policy announcements, with National GridShort up 2.00%, while PrudentialShort fell 1.38%, GSKShort 1.29%, AstraZenecaShort 1.19%, HSBCLong 0.82% and ShellLong 0.68%.

On Wednesday the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort lost 0.87%, the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.77%, the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort 0.69% and the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.27%. All four remain under their weekly sell signal, with prices between 2.41% (London) and 3.32% (Paris) below the level that judges it.

The news is Milan. Until Tuesday it was the only one of the four still inside its no-trade zone and with its daily signal on buy; on Wednesday's close it fell through the floor of the zone, 0.42% below, and the daily signal turned to sell. All four now sit under their zones: Paris 1.30% below, Frankfurt 0.69% and London 0.63%. Paris, a sell since 24 August, has its short up 4.91%, Milan 1.37%, Frankfurt 0.41% and London 0.39%.

The cohort of new buy signals was born with Friday 25 September's close, 11 signals of which 5 tradable, and we published it in full on Monday. Today we report only what changed, and it is a single line: RecordatiLong flipped its daily signal to sell. No stock crossed its entry price, none left the cohort and none reported earnings. The session did split the group, though: LocalizaLong gained 5.11%, IntelLong 3.71% and DatadogLong 1.97%, while EvenLong lost 2.87% and ArmLong 1.37%.

The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Six companies in our universe report over the next seven days. Today it is the turn of AccentureLong, the first results from a large technology services group after a hard quarter for software, and of NikeShort. Wednesday 7 October brings Applied DigitalShort, and Thursday 8 PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort. Tomorrow, outside the earnings calendar, come the quarterly deliveries of TeslaLong and the US jobs report.

Thursday 1 October

Accenture Long

NIKE Short

Wednesday 7 October

Applied Digital Short

Thursday 8 October

PepsiCo Short

Tesco Long

Tilray Brands Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, lost 0.21% on its heaviest volume since 18 September and closed near the low of the day. The daily signal is on sell for a second session, with its level 1.25% above the price; the price sits 0.96% below the no-trade zone and 2.15% below its all-time high. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, gained 0.25%: during the day it moved into its no-trade zone and failed to hold it, closing 0.48% below the floor. It is still the only one of the two with both horizons on buy, 0.62% above its daily level.

On targets the two baskets are in opposite phases. SPY has already taken all three windows and is managed on the trailing stop, with the weekly Reversal Point 0.60% below the price. QQQ is in its seventh week, just above its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead.