ETF and stock technical analysis: the Nasdaq ETF sets a record, Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit turn to sell in Milan and STMicroelectronics stock jumps 6.67%

An ETF is a fund that trades on an exchange like a share and holds a whole basket inside it, whether a sector, an index or a market. Watching the baskets side by side shows where money moved during the week, before you look at a single stock.

The weekly close changed sides on several European baskets. EXV3, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Technology UCITS, the European technology ETF, rose 2.75% on Friday and 5.44% on the week, and it is the only new buy signal among ETFs. Going the other way, EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, ended Friday flat after losing 4.91% in five sessions: the buy signal born in April is closed and a sell signal has taken its place. The same happened to EXV6, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS, the European basic resources ETF, up 2.25% on Friday, and to EXV2, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS, the European telecoms ETF, up 1.92%: two one-day bounces inside a negative week. EXHG, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS, the European autos ETF, lost 0.24% and 3.48% on the week, with the model's short up 3.48%; EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, is still a buy at 3.34%, and EXH9, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS, a sell at 2.02%.

In the United States technology is the only sector higher on the month. XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, gained 1.01%, VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, 1.03%, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, 1.00% and QDVE, the iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the UCITS ETF version for European investors, 1.56%: the model has been long all four since 10 August, with gains between 4.70% and 8.28%. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, rose 2.18% and is up 2.83% from the 21 September signal. MAGS, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, added 1.61% and is up 8.49%.

The rest of the US grid rose on Friday and stayed lower on the week. XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR, gained 1.13%, XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, 0.78%, and XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, 0.38%: the model is short all three, at 2.58%, 4.06% and 8.67%. XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, was flat after a 2.46% weekly loss, and the short is up 4.24%. XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, and XLRE, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, are sells at 1.86% and 7.10%; XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, lost 2.65% on the week and the long still stands at 11.18%. Energy shows a split worth noting: XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, remains a buy at 8.91%, while VDE, Vanguard Energy, which also holds the smaller companies in the sector, has turned to sell. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the world's most traded gold ETF, lost 0.68% on the day and 3.37% on the week, all of it in favour of the short opened on 21 September. For the full ETF technical analysis of every global fund we follow, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

The broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. The week confirmed what was still provisional on Thursday.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, is up 13.27%, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 13.31% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 13.30%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, buys since 3 August, sit just above their entry. On the total market the signal has been a sell since 14 September, and the six ETFs in the family rose between 0.75% and 0.83% on Friday, leaving them about one point above the short's entry price: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard ETF on the whole US market, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets outside the US. This is the family that changed direction. Five funds that had been buys since April or August end the week with a new sell signal: VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity. They rose between 1.15% and 1.31% on Friday but lost about one point on the week. They join VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, sells since 14 September with the short up 2.07%, 1.00% and 1.13%. Still on buy are IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, at 4.65%, and VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, at 9.76%.

Emerging markets and Japan. Here the buy signals held. VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, rose 0.90% and has been a buy since 13 April, like SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity. IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, up 1.40% on Friday, and SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, have been buys since 17 August and sit around their entry. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, gained 1.58%.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September and the short is still working: up 1.83%, 3.16% and 1.41%.

Semiconductor stocks led the session. Nvidia stockLong rose 1.34%: according to market reports it was the first record close since May, and a major investment bank restored it as its top pick in the sector. AMD stockLong gained 2.95% after announcing the purchase of an artificial intelligence company for 8.2 billion dollars, paid entirely in shares. ArmLong added 5.18%, Texas InstrumentsLong 4.44%, Super Micro ComputerLong 4.22%, DellLong 3.84%, TSMCLong 2.96%, Applied MaterialsLong 2.03% and MarvellLong 1.57%.

Broadcom stockShort rose 3.35%. According to a preliminary filing that circulated during the week and is not yet public, the company has committed to lend up to 42 billion dollars to a large artificial intelligence customer, covering part of a five-year supply contract: this is where the build-out of the infrastructure meets the debt that pays for it. CiscoShort gained 3.16% and Oracle stockLong 3.06%.

At the bottom of the list sits Western DigitalShort: Western Digital stocks lost 10.22% after a Japanese competitor announced an investment to double its hard-drive capacity. SandiskLong fell 3.79%. Micron stockLong gave back 2.05% two sessions after record quarterly revenue of 54.2 billion dollars, held back by the 250 billion of capital spending it announced. In software AccentureLong retraced 6.31% the day after its earnings jump, AppLovinShort lost 4.65% and ServiceNowLong 2.45%; Microsoft stockLong rose 0.92% and PalantirLong slipped 0.68%.

September's US jobs report came in weak: according to market reports 29,000 new jobs against 84,000 expected, with downward revisions to the two previous months. The odds of another rate rise at the end of October fell to around 20% and equities took the number as relief; the 10-year Treasury yield, again according to market reports, still closed higher. Tesla stockLong gained 4.65% after quarterly deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, about 25,000 above consensus. RivianShort lost 3.12%: the gain on its own deliveries was wiped out by a recall of about 100,000 vehicles for a software fault.

Nike stockShort fell 3.64% after a quarter with revenue of 11.21 billion dollars, lower year on year, and guidance for further sales declines. The stock traded almost six times its normal volume and closed near its session high, well above the low of the day. Among consumer names the cruise lines rose: CarnivalLong 2.75%, Royal CaribbeanShort 2.87% and Norwegian Cruise LineShort 3.42%. UnitedHealthShort gained 1.83% and Apple stockLong 1.02%.

The big banks stood still after a heavy week: Goldman SachsShort up 0.66%, Bank of America stockShort unchanged, JPMorganShort down 0.24%. In defence RTXShort closed 0.18% lower despite a five-year contract worth up to 24.4 billion dollars for Navy missiles, Lockheed MartinShort was flat and BoeingShort rose 0.67%. Crude fell 1.90% after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels from strategic reserves: Exxon MobilLong added 0.12%, ChevronLong lost 0.20%. FedExShort, up 1.15%, will lift its fuel surcharge on international services above 51% from 5 October. Outside the United States the Brazilian market had its best session since April, with PetrobrasLong up 3.19% and BradescoLong up 3.25% on 4.4 times its normal volume.

The week on the Milan market ended with the FTSE MIB ETF down 2.83% and the banks at the centre of it. In five sessions Intesa Sanpaolo stockShort lost 6.78%, Banco BPMShort 7.16%, UniCredit stockShort 6.08%, BPERShort 5.88%, Monte dei PaschiLong 5.75% and MediobancaLong 5.65%; GeneraliShort fell 5.17%. On Friday the sector was still weak, between a 1.04% loss and unchanged, as the spread between Italian and German bonds narrowed 2.6% after Thursday's jump.

The real news came after the close. According to the statement released on Saturday evening, Intesa Sanpaolo raised the cash part of its offer for Monte dei Paschi from 1.00 to 1.25 euros per share, leaving the exchange ratio unchanged, for a total value of 31.4 billion euros if every shareholder accepts. The bank reserves the right to withdraw the offer if the Monte dei Paschi shareholder meeting on 29 October approves the two exchange offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali. Six listed companies are now tied to the same vote, including UnipolShort and Mediobanca.

Over the same weekend Poste ItalianeShort published the final result of its offer for Telecom ItaliaShort: its stake reaches 85.8% of the capital, short of the 90% threshold but enough to proceed with the merger and the delisting. Telecom Italia lost 2.45% on Friday, on 4.3 times its normal volume and with a close at the low of the day, and 11.46% on the week. The offer for IvecoLong stands at 28.3% acceptance.

Outside financials the session was positive. STMicroelectronics stockLong rose 6.67% after a major investment bank upgraded it to buy with a price target of 86 euros. PrysmianShort gained 3.96%, InwitLong 2.28%, FinecoBankShort 2.21%, BuzziShort 1.58%, EnelShort 1.51% and SnamShort 1.45%. StellantisShort added 0.88% as Italian registrations rose 9.9% in September, EniLong 0.67% and FerrariLong 0.44%. On the downside FincantieriShort lost 1.98%, AmplifonShort 1.95%, LeonardoShort 0.86% and NexiShort 0.42%.

In Europe Friday's rebound had one leading name. Infineon stockShort rose 8.78% on the day and 13.98% on the week, following US semiconductors. Schneider ElectricShort gained 3.55%, LegrandLong 3.43%, GlencoreShort 2.95%, AirbusShort 1.99%, Munich ReLong 1.96%, Deutsche TelekomShort 1.88%, SiemensShort 1.54% and RheinmetallShort 1.17%, after the launch of the first air-defence surveillance satellite developed with an Italian partner.

The rest of the list ended a heavy week. Bayer stockShort lost 1.01% on Friday and 10.16% in five sessions, Société GénéraleShort 8.31% on the week, BNP Paribas stockShort 7.29%, TotalEnergiesLong 6.91%, VolkswagenShort 5.91%, KeringShort 5.84% with a further 3.22% on Friday, British American TobaccoShort 5.26%, HSBCShort 4.63%, Mercedes-BenzShort 3.78% and BMWShort 2.51%. Friday also saw losses for SanofiShort, down 3.13%, CapgeminiLong, 2.85%, SAPLong, 1.51%, AstraZenecaShort, 1.35%, and TescoLong, 1.22%, which reports half-year results on Thursday.

On Friday the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort gained 1.26%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort 0.65%, the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 0.34% and the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort 0.21%. On the week all four are lower: Milan down 2.83%, Paris 2.28%, London 2.10% and Frankfurt 0.65%. All four sit under their weekly sell signal, with the price 4.32% below the level in Milan, 3.70% in Paris, 3.09% in London and 2.99% in Frankfurt, and all four have the daily signal on sell.

Milan is the story of the week. The ETF set a new thirty-session low, closed below its 20-week average and now trades close to the lower edge of its wait zone. The model's short, opened on 31 August, is up 3.38%; Paris, a sell since 24 August, 5.66%, London 1.66% and Frankfurt 0.30%. On indices our model puts every sell signal through a three-week check, and the FTSE MIB's ended in late September without confirmation: the signal is still active, with low Signal Strength.

Friday 2 October's close produced 9 new buy signals, 7 of them tradable under our protocol. Five belong to the same theme, semiconductors and European technology: STMicroelectronicsLong on both its listings, New York and Milan, Applied MaterialsLong, Texas InstrumentsLong and the European technology ETF EXV3Long. Outside the theme are CarnivalLong and Brazil's CosanLong; Astera LabsLong and Palo Alto NetworksLong stay outside the tradable group. All nine have the daily signal on buy.

The same close produced 34 new sell signals, which you will find in the cards on this page. The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Five companies in our universe report over the next seven days, all in the second half of the week. Wednesday 7 October brings Applied DigitalShort, Thursday 8 PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort, and Friday 9 Delta Air LinesShort, the first airline to report a quarter spent with crude above one hundred dollars. The season proper starts on 13 October with the US banks.

Wednesday 7 October

Applied Digital Short

Thursday 8 October

PepsiCo Short

Tesco Long

Tilray Brands Short

Friday 9 October

Delta Air Lines Short

QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, gained 1.02% on Friday and 0.68% on the week, setting a new all-time high that the weekly close confirmed above the old record. It is the only one of the two with both horizons on buy: the price sits 1.37% above its daily level and 4.42% above its weekly level. SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, gained 0.74% and ends the week down 0.22%, 1.25% below its own record. The weekly buy signal holds, with the price 1.65% above the level, while the daily signal remains on sell by 0.14%; the price is working inside a narrow wait zone.

On targets the two baskets are in opposite phases. SPY has already passed all three scale-out windows and is managed on the weekly Reversal Point. QQQ has closed its seventh week, 2.53% above its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead.