ETF and stock technical analysis: the European banks ETF sinks, the energy ETF leads and Accenture stock jumps 15.78% on earnings

An ETF is a listed fund that tracks a basket: one purchase buys a whole sector, index or market at whatever price the exchange is quoting. It is the simplest tool for reading a session, because each basket shows whether that slice of the market drew money in or lost it.

On Thursday the two extremes sat on two continents. EXV1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS, the European banks ETF, lost 3.69% and 4.98% on the week: our model had been a buyer since April, and the weekly candle in progress is turning the signal to sell, provisional until tonight's close. EXV6, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources UCITS, the European basic resources ETF, fell 1.99%, its signal also turning, and EXHG, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts UCITS, the European autos ETF, 1.61%, with the model's short up 3.25%. Across the Atlantic XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, gained 1.95% as crude rose 2.71%, and the model's long, opened on 13 July, is up 8.70%; VDE, Vanguard Energy, the Vanguard energy ETF, rose 1.99%.

Technology did its part: XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, up 1.05%, VGT, Vanguard Information Technology, the Vanguard technology ETF, up 1.07%, FTEC, Fidelity MSCI Information Technology, the Fidelity technology ETF, up 1.07%, and QDVE, iShares S&P 500 Information Technology Sector UCITS, the European version, up 0.41%. Our model has been a buyer of all four since 10 August, with gains between 3.63% and 6.62%. SOXX, iShares Semiconductor, the semiconductor ETF, rose 1.35% and moved back above the entry price of the signal born on 21 September. MAGS, Roundhill Magnificent Seven, the Magnificent Seven ETF, slipped 0.35% and is still up 6.77%.

Among the other US sectors XLI, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR, rose 0.99% and XLU, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, the US utilities ETF, 0.61% on 3.1 times its normal volume: the model is short both, at 4.80% and 9.01%. XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, the US financials ETF, closed up 0.11% with the big banks lower, and the short is up 4.30%. Lower were XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR, down 0.33%, XLRE, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR, down 0.56%, and XLV, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR, the US health care ETF, down 1.32%, where the model's long is still up 11.19%. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, recovered 0.50%, with the model's short at 2.71%. In Europe EXH1, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas UCITS, the European oil and gas ETF, held up with a 0.16% gain, as did EXV2, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Telecommunications UCITS, up 0.23%; EXH9, the iShares STOXX Europe 600 Utilities UCITS, lost 0.44%. For the full ETF technical analysis of every fund we follow, basket by basket, see our dedicated Market Pulse page.

The broad ETFs, family by family. Beyond sectors, our model follows more than thirty funds on the major baskets, the ones most investors actually hold. This week the news is outside the United States.

US market ETFs. On large caps the signal has been a buy since 6 April: SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the world's most traded S&P 500 ETF, is up 12.44%, SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, the low-cost version, 12.46% and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, 12.44%. OEF, iShares S&P 100, and XLG, Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, buys since 3 August, remain around their entry. On the whole market the signal has been a sell since 14 September, and the six ETFs in that group rose between 0.20% and 0.27%, leaving them at their entry price: VTI, Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total US market ETF, ITOT, iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market, SCHB, Schwab U.S. Broad Market, SPTM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500, and the two iShares funds on the Russell 3000, IWV, and the Russell 1000, IWB.

Developed markets outside the US. This is the family that is changing direction. VGK, Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, lost 1.51%, IEFA, iShares Core MSCI EAFE, 0.96% and IDEV, iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets, 0.91%: they have been sells since 14 September and the short is up 3.08%, 2.08% and 2.13%. On the other six funds in the family the buy signal had been in place since April or August, and the weekly candle in progress is turning all of them to sell, provisionally until tonight: VEA, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, down 0.57%, VEU, Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US, down 0.59%, VXUS, Vanguard Total International Stock, down 0.59%, IXUS, iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock, down 0.51%, SPDW, SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US, down 0.62%, and SCHF, Schwab International Equity, down 0.80%. VT, Vanguard Total World Stock, the global equity ETF, was flat and remains a buy since 6 April, up 8.84%.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, Vanguard's emerging markets ETF, lost 0.47% and the candle in progress is turning its signal to sell as well. SCHE, Schwab Emerging Markets Equity, a buy since 13 April, is still just above its entry; IEMG, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets, and SPEM, SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets, buys since 17 August, are just below. BBJP, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, closed almost unchanged.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO, iShares Core Dividend Growth, and USMV, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol, have been sells since 8 September and the short is still working: up 2.46%, 3.58% and 1.58%.

Accenture stockLong gained 15.78%, a rare move for a consulting group of this size. According to the company's release, quarterly earnings per share were 3.29 dollars against 3.18 expected and revenue 18.68 billion against 18.04, with an outlook for 2027 that confirms corporate budgets for artificial intelligence are holding. Accenture stocks traded almost five times their normal volume and closed near the low of the day, after opening far higher.

Behind Accenture came the software names with numbers to show. ServiceNow stockLong rose 2.80% after reporting one billion dollars of annual contract value tied to artificial intelligence and a 98% renewal rate, IBM stockLong 2.59%, IntuitShort 2.56%, SalesforceLong 3.10%, ZoomShort 3.34%, DuolingoLong 2.93% and Unity SoftwareLong 6.55%. Gains were smaller for PalantirLong, up 1.60%, CloudflareLong, 1.07%, DatadogLong, 0.95%, SnowflakeLong, 0.72%, and AdobeShort, 0.56%; Microsoft stockLong was flat.

For semiconductor stocks it was the first session after results from MicronLong: quarterly revenue of 54.23 billion dollars and guidance of 61.5 billion for the current quarter, according to the company's release. Micron stocks gained 3.03%, Applied MaterialsShort 3.50%, MarvellLong 1.46%, Nvidia stockLong 1.09%, TSMCLong 0.66%, AMD stockLong 0.65% and Arista NetworksLong 0.44% after a broker started coverage with a positive rating. Lower were BroadcomShort, down 2.15%, and AppLovinShort, down 3.14% after an investment bank questioned the numbers behind one of its services.

According to market reports the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, its highest since April 2002, after jobless claims of 197,000 and a manufacturing survey showing a sharp rise in prices paid. The big banks paid for it: CitigroupShort lost 1.92% and Bank of America stockShort 1.29%, the latter after a subsidiary agreed to pay 39 million dollars to settle a class action. Goldman SachsShort slipped 0.41%, while JPMorganShort held up, gaining 0.71%.

In defence the US Navy chose BoeingShort to develop its next carrier-based fighter, a contract worth about 20 billion dollars: Boeing stock rose 3.35%, while Northrop GrummanShort, which lost the competition, gave up a further 0.31%. RTXShort closed down 0.34% despite a five-year, 24.4-billion-dollar contract for Navy missiles, and Lockheed MartinShort down 0.74%.

Crude's 2.71% gain lifted the refiners: Marathon PetroleumLong up 6.25%, ValeroLong 5.38%, OccidentalShort 4.56%, ChevronLong 1.42% and Exxon MobilLong 0.66%. In autos StellantisShort gained 7.57% in New York after strong US sales for its Ram brand, and FordShort 1.74%. Lower were DanaherLong, down 4.42%, DisneyLong, 3.40%, Johnson & JohnsonLong, 2.30%, and ModernaLong, 1.89%. After the bell came results from NikeShort: earnings per share of 48 cents against 44 expected, revenue of 11.2 billion against 11.3 and guidance for lower revenue over the fiscal year. During the session Nike stock had lost 0.71% on 4.5 times its normal volume.

According to market reports the FTSE MIB closed down 2.21%, the worst performance among developed markets; the FTSE MIB ETF we follow, listed in Paris, lost 2.24%. On the Milan market the cause can be read in government bonds: the Italian 10-year yield rose to 4.71% while the German yield fell, and the spread went from 106 to 119 basis points in one session, up 11.86%. The banks reacted as one. Banca MediolanumShort lost 4.30%, MediobancaLong 4.23%, UniCredit stockLong 4.07%, Intesa Sanpaolo stockLong 4.02%, FinecoBankShort 3.93%, Monte dei PaschiLong 3.74%, Banco BPMShort 3.64% and BPERLong 3.55%. Next came Poste ItalianeShort, down 3.20%, UnipolShort, 2.83%, AzimutLong, 2.65%, and GeneraliLong, 2.08%.

Outside financials DiaSorinLong fell 3.65%, MonclerShort 2.80%, NexiLong 2.59%, LeonardoShort 2.45%, Telecom ItaliaShort 1.59%, Ferrari stockLong 1.27% and EnelShort 0.90%. StellantisShort closed down 1.24% in Milan, before the New York line recovered on the US sales figures. Few names rose: FincantieriShort, up 2.70% after a broker started coverage with a 17-euro price target, STMicroelectronicsShort, up 0.73% in the wake of Micron's results, PrysmianShort, up 0.69%, and TenarisLong, up 0.45%. Eni stockLong closed unchanged, up 0.04%, on the day the company completed the reorganisation of Plenitude with a 1.56-billion-euro capital increase.

In Europe the session was driven by rates rather than companies. September inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain came in above forecasts, pushed by energy, and none of the large caps published news of note. The banks paid for everyone: in Paris Société GénéraleShort lost 5.00% and BNP ParibasShort 3.64%, in London LloydsShort 4.49%, BarclaysShort 4.07% and HSBCLong 4.05%, in Frankfurt Deutsche BankShort 2.62%.

Outside banking BayerLong fell 5.32%, Saint-GobainShort 3.94%, VolkswagenShort 3.46%, KeringShort 2.73%, LVMHShort 2.69%, AirbusShort 2.63%, AstraZenecaShort and GSKShort 2.02%, adidasShort 1.82%, DiageoShort 1.60%, ExperianShort 1.54%, Mercedes-BenzShort 1.32%, SiemensShort 1.31% and BMWShort 0.90%. The one exception of any weight was CapgeminiLong, up 7.38% on the back of Accenture's results; OrangeShort gained 0.80%, SAPLong 0.58% and ShellLong 0.55%, while Deutsche TelekomShort and InfineonShort were flat.

On Thursday the FTSE MIB ETF FTSE MIB ETFShort lost 2.24%, the FTSE 100 ETF FTSE 100 ETFShort 1.61%, the CAC 40 ETF CAC 40 ETFShort 1.44% and the DAX ETF DAX ETFShort 1.13%. All four are under their weekly sell signal, and in one session the distance from the level that judges it has widened: the price sits 4.50% below in Milan, 4.12% in Paris, 3.80% in Frankfurt and 3.31% in London.

Milan is the story of the week. On Wednesday it dropped out of the bottom of the no-trade zone it had been in for a month; on Thursday it closed at the low of the day, at its lowest in thirty sessions and 2.72% below the floor of that zone. The model's short, opened on 31 August, went from 1.37% to 3.58% in two sessions. Paris, a sell since 24 August, is up 6.27%, London 1.99% and Frankfurt 1.54%.

The cohort of new buy signals was born with Friday 25 September's close, 11 signals of which 5 tradable, and we published it in full on Monday. Today we report only what changed, and it comes to two lines: the semiconductor ETF SOXXLong moved back above its entry price, and EvenLong flipped its daily signal to sell. No name left the cohort and none reported earnings. In the session FastlyLong gained 2.80%, DatadogLong 0.95%, ArmLong 0.93% and AMD stockLong 0.65%, while LocalizaLong gave back 1.16%.

The usual caveat applies: past data do not guarantee future results.

Six companies in our universe report over the next seven days, all in the second half of the week. Wednesday 7 October brings Applied DigitalShort, Thursday 8 PepsiCoShort, TescoLong and TilrayShort, and Friday 9 BlackRockShort and Delta Air LinesShort. Today, outside the earnings calendar, come the quarterly deliveries of TeslaLong and the US jobs report; the US bank earnings season starts on 13 October.

Wednesday 7 October

Applied Digital Short

Thursday 8 October

PepsiCo Short

Tesco Long

Tilray Brands Short

Friday 9 October

BlackRock Short

Delta Air Lines Short

SPY, the S&P 500 ETF S&P 500Long, gained 0.18% after falling during the day to within 0.20% of its weekly Reversal Point, the level that judges the buy trade born in April, and closed in the upper part of its range. The daily signal is on sell for a third session, with its level 0.89% above the price; the price sits 0.78% below the no-trade zone and 2.0% below its all-time high. QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF Invesco QQQ TrustLong, gained 0.31%: for the second session running it moved back into its no-trade zone and closed just under the floor, by 0.18%. It is still the only one of the two with both horizons on buy, 0.92% above its daily level.

On targets the two baskets are in opposite phases. SPY has already taken all three windows and is managed on the trailing stop, with the weekly Reversal Point 0.88% below the price. QQQ is in its seventh week, 1.50% above its entry, with the second and third windows still ahead.