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ETF and stock technical analysis: Leonardo stock rises 4.73% in Milan, Fincantieri 3.39%, Saipem 4.13%. The semiconductor ETF falls 4.14%, the energy ETF gains 2.52%, the Nasdaq ETF turns to sell. Nebius stock down 12.18%, CoreWeave 11.91%, AMD 5.95%, Apple up 0.43%.

· 34 min read
ETF and stock technical analysis: Leonardo stock gains 4.73% in Milan, the semiconductor ETF falls 4.14%, the energy ETF rises 2.52% and Nebius stock drops 12.18%
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Economic Observatory · The session

ETF and stock technical analysis: Leonardo stock gains 4.73% in Milan, the semiconductor ETF falls 4.14%, the energy ETF rises 2.52% and Nebius stock drops 12.18%

19 October 2026 AiTrading67 · Trade Desk Observatory Markets
▶ The desk on video. Every day the session in a minute and a half: the stocks in the news with the signals of our model, and every week the market recap. Today's video: Stocks in the news today, 15 October. Every video is in the YouTube playlist.

On Friday 16 October the artificial intelligence sell-off closed out the week, and the baskets told the story better than the indices. The Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ lost 2.50% and the S&P 500 ETF SPY 1.11%; the semiconductor ETF SOXX fell 4.14% as the sector posted its eighth straight losing session, and the US technology ETF XLK gave up 3.02%. Money went into the energy ETF XLE, up 2.52% with crude, and the utilities ETF XLU, up 1.34%. The FTSE MIB ETF MIB gained 1.01% and closed at its high: the Milan market rose while Wall Street fell. Equity volatility jumped 21% in a single session and 35% over four weeks, the sharpest move of the year, while US Treasury volatility eased: the strain sat entirely on technology stocks and the credit that funds them, and our model has tightened new entries exactly there.

In this edition you will find the technical analysis of the names that shaped the session, with our model's position on each. In Milan Leonardo stock rose 4.73% with defence, Fincantieri stock 3.39%, Saipem 4.13% with oil and Stellantis 2.80% with the car makers, while the banks traded on the Monte dei Paschi file. On Wall Street Nebius stock sank 12.18%, CoreWeave stock 11.91% on data-centre credit fears, AMD stock lost 5.95%, Intel 5.79% and Micron 5.63%; Apple stock edged up 0.43%, the only megacap in the green, and Exxon gained 2.46%. In Frankfurt Rheinmetall climbed 5.54%, in London Diageo 1.94%.

Our model was on the right side of many of the day's names. It had been short Applied Digital and Western Digital since late June, and the two trades are up 45.40% and 38.40%; the short on CoreWeave is up 24.55%, on Cipher 55.19%, on Vertiv 34.62% and on Broadcom 8.14%. On the other side it was long energy: the XLE ETF is up 18.31%, Chevron 20.07%, Exxon 14.04%, Petrobras 44.69%. In Milan the short on Stellantis is up 32.34%, the one on Telecom Italia 22.77%, and the longs on Eni and Campari 13.04% and 12.28%. On the Italian basket MIB the short is up 4.18%.

The news that moved our instruments
📊
INSTRUMENTS
Chips turn to sell, energy and utilities turn to buy

ETF technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF and the technology ETF flip to sell, the energy ETF and the utilities ETF rise, the broad-index ETFs end the week lower

An ETF is a listed basket: a single order buys a country's index, a sector or a commodity, and it can be sold at any point in the session. In the week just ended the baskets mattered more than single stocks, because the sell-off hit one whole sector and spared the others.

Start with the losers. SOXX, the iShares Semiconductor ETF, the semiconductor ETF, fell 4.14% and closed near its session low, and with Friday's candle our model flipped it to sell: the price now sits 13.30% below the weekly level. The same happened to XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR, the US technology ETF, down 3.02% and almost 8% on the week, to VGT, the Vanguard technology ETF, down 2.87%, and to FTEC, the Fidelity MSCI Information Technology ETF, down 2.92%: the three longs opened on 10 August are closed, and the shorts were born on Friday. MAGS, the Magnificent Seven ETF, lost 1.97% but stays long, up 6.53%; QDVE, the European version of the S&P 500 technology fund, is up 2.41%. XLC, the communication services ETF, gave up 1.89%.

On the other side, energy and the defensives. XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR, the US energy ETF, rose 2.52% and closed near its high, with crude at a four-week peak according to market reports: the July long is up 18.31%. VDE, the Vanguard Energy ETF, the Vanguard energy ETF, gained 2.51% and joined the new buy signals. So did XLU, the utilities ETF, up 1.34%, and XLP, the consumer staples ETF, up 1.08%: the weekly candle that was turning against the published sell a week ago closed that way, and the two signals were born. XLV, the US health care ETF, slipped 0.27% after a strong week and stays up 18.22% since 26 May. GLD, SPDR Gold Shares, the most heavily traded gold ETF in the world, lost 0.18%: the model has been short gold since 21 September and the trade is up 2.90%, even though the daily signal turned back to buy on Friday.

Among the other US sectors, XLB on materials rose 0.71%, XLF on financials 0.45% and XLRE on real estate 0.40%; XLY on consumer discretionary fell 0.84% and XLI on industrials 0.08%. In Europe nearly everything rose: autos with EXHG, up 1.62%, telecoms with EXV2, up 1.21%, oil and gas with EXH1, up 1.18%, utilities with EXH9, up 1.14%, banks with EXV1, up 0.71%, and personal and household goods with EXH7, up 0.84% and a new buy signal; European health care, EXV4, slipped 0.23%. Our ETF technical analysis page, with every basket we follow, sits in the dedicated Market Pulse.

The broad-index ETFs, family by family. Our model follows more than thirty funds on the major benchmarks, the ones behind savings plans and long-term portfolios. On Friday nearly all of them closed lower, and the weekly candle changed side for several families.

US market ETFs. SPY, SPDR S&P 500, the most traded S&P 500 ETF in the world, lost 1.11% and stays long since 6 April, up 12.33%, with the weekly level only 0.52% below the price; SPYM, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500, and SCHX, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap, are up 12.34% and 12.11%. OEF, the iShares S&P 100, and XLG, the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50, sit just below the entry, as do IWV and IWB. On the total market the model stays short since 14 September through VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market, the Vanguard total market ETF, ITOT, SCHB and SPTM. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000, the small-cap ETF, lost 1.69% and closed near its low, and the short is up 8.64%.

Developed markets outside the US. VEA, the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets, the Vanguard developed markets ETF, VEU, VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock, IXUS, SPDW and SCHF stay short, with gains between 1.7% and 2.4%; VGK, the Vanguard FTSE Europe, the Vanguard Europe ETF, is up 1.04% on the short side, like IEFA and IDEV. The change of the week is VT, the Vanguard Total World Stock, the world equity ETF: long since 6 April, it flipped to sell with Friday's candle.

Emerging markets and Japan. VWO, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets, IEMG, SCHE and SPEM flipped to sell with the same candle, as the week in progress had suggested. BBJP, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, the Japan ETF, stays long just below the entry.

Dividend and low-volatility ETFs. VIG, the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, Vanguard's dividend ETF, DGRO and USMV flipped to buy: the three sells of 8 September are closed, and the new longs were born with Friday's candle.

How I read itThe week put the families back in order. Within the US market the large-cap funds stay long since April, with SPY up 12.33%, while technology, semiconductors, the world index and emerging markets turned to sell; dividends, utilities and staples turned to buy. For risk management this is what matters: SPY's margin above the weekly level is now under 0.6%, and with volatility up a fifth in a day, the week of tech earnings will test it.
semiconductor ETF short (G / P) · US technology ETF short (G / P) · Vanguard US technology ETF short (G / P) · Fidelity US technology ETF short (G / P) · Magnificent Seven long (G / P) · S&P 500 Technology long (G / P) · US communication services ETF long (G / P) · US energy ETF long (G / P) · Vanguard US energy ETF long (G / P) · European oil and gas ETF long (G / P) · US utilities ETF long (G / P) · US consumer staples ETF long (G / P) · Consumer Goods Europe long (G / P) · US health care ETF long (G / P) · European health care ETF short (G / P) · gold ETF short (G / P) · US financials ETF short (G / P) · European banks ETF short (G / P) · US industrials ETF short (G / P) · US consumer discretionary ETF short (G / P) · US materials ETF short (G / P) · US real estate ETF short (G / P) · European utilities ETF short (G / P) · European industrials ETF short (G / P) · European basic resources ETF short (G / P) · European autos ETF short (G / P) · European technology ETF long (G / P) · European telecoms ETF short (G / P) · FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) · S&P 500 long (G / P) · SPYM S&P 500 long (G / P) · SCHX US Large Cap long (G / P) · S&P 100 long (G / P) · S&P 500 Top 50 long (G / P) · Russell 3000 long (G / P) · Russell 1000 long (G / P) · VTI US Total Market short (G / P) · ITOT US Total Market short (G / P) · SCHB US Total Market short (G / P) · SPTM US Total Market short (G / P) · Russell 2000 ETF short (G / P) · VEA Developed Markets short (G / P) · VEU World ex US short (G / P) · Vanguard Total International Stock ETF short (G / P) · IXUS International Equity short (G / P) · SPDW Developed ex US short (G / P) · SCHF International Equity short (G / P) · IEFA Developed ex US short (G / P) · IDEV Developed Markets short (G / P) · Europe short (G / P) · Vanguard Total World Stock ETF short (G / P) · VWO Emerging Markets short (G / P) · SCHE Emerging Markets short (G / P) · SPEM Emerging Markets short (G / P) · Emerging Markets short (G / P) · Japan long (G / P) · VIG Dividend Growth long (G / P) · Dividend Growth long (G / P) · Min Volatility long (G / P) *
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Data-centre credit drags the chips down

Semiconductor stocks and AI: Nebius stock 12.18% lower, CoreWeave stock down 11.91%, Super Micro 9.86%, AMD stock down 5.95%, Intel 5.79%, Nvidia stocks down 1.43%

According to market reports, the trigger was CoreWeaveShort, which sank 11.91% on fears over the credit that funds data centres. The contagion spread to the other compute providers after a Gartner report said 80% of them will no longer operate independently by 2030: NebiusShort down 12.18%, Applied DigitalShort down 11.48%, IRENShort down 11.19%, TeraWulfShort down 7.45%, and Super MicroShort, the purest bet on servers, down 9.86%.

The chip index posted its eighth straight losing session, the longest run since 2006 according to market reports. ArmShort lost 6.94%, SandiskShort 6.85%, Western DigitalShort 6.86% closing at its low, AMDLong 5.95%, IntelShort 5.79%, MicronShort 5.63%, MarvellLong 5.56%, Applied MaterialsShort 4.82%, BroadcomShort 4.52%, QualcommShort 3.53%, TSMCShort 2.28%; NvidiaLong held up best, down 1.43%, and over the weekend came the news that Samsung will use TSMC's 3-nanometre process for Nvidia's next memory chips. Software offered no shelter: SnowflakeLong down 8.43%, Palo AltoLong 7.63%, PalantirLong 7.22%, DatadogLong 7.19%, CrowdStrikeLong and FortinetLong 7%, OracleShort 4.64%. Crypto followed: RiotShort down 11.48%, CipherShort 10.56%, CleanSparkShort 10.16%, MARA HoldingsShort 9.60%, StrategyLong 9.56%; in quantum computing IonQShort lost 8.94% and RigettiShort 6.57%.

Among the megacaps the daily signal turned to sell on Friday for MicrosoftLong, down 1.93%, AlphabetShort, down 2.47%, and MetaLong, down 3.72%. AppleLong was the only one to rise, up 0.43%, on demand for the new foldable iPhone.

How I read itThis is where our model has some of its cleanest results of the year, all on the short side. Applied Digital and TeraWulf, short since 29 June, are up 45.40% and 44.85%, Western Digital 38.40%, Cipher 55.19%, Riot 34.56%, CleanSpark 33.44%, Vertiv 34.62%, CoreWeave 24.55%, Rigetti 22.37%, MARA Holdings 21.97% and Broadcom 8.14%. Friday's candle opened new shorts on Nebius, IREN, Super Micro, Arm, Intel, Micron, Sandisk, Applied Materials, Qualcomm, TSMC, Oracle and IonQ. On the long side CrowdStrike, held since 20 April, is up 102.97% and Fortinet 96.00%, even though both closed below their weekly level; Snowflake is up 78.19%, ServiceNow 13.69%, Microsoft 13.84%, Meta 9.46%. For swing trading in semiconductor stocks, or any ai trading approach to the theme, the week's price action made clear which side the model is on: a trading strategy built on weekly signals was already short much of the group before Friday.
CoreWeave short (G / P) · Nebius short (G / P) · IREN short (G / P) · Applied Digital short (G / P) · TeraWulf short (G / P) · Super Micro Computer short (G / P) · Advanced Micro Devices long (G / P) · ARM short (G / P) · Intel short (G / P) · Micron Technology short (G / P) · Sandisk short (G / P) · Western Digital short (G / P) · Marvell Technology long (G / P) · Broadcom short (G / P) · Applied Materials short (G / P) · QUALCOMM short (G / P) · TSMC short (G / P) · NVIDIA long (G / P) · Vertiv short (G / P) · Palantir Technologies long (G / P) · Palo Alto Networks long (G / P) · CrowdStrike long (G / P) · Fortinet long (G / P) · Datadog long (G / P) · Snowflake long (G / P) · ServiceNow long (G / P) · Oracle short (G / P) · Microsoft long (G / P) · Alphabet short (G / P) · Meta Platforms long (G / P) · Apple long (G / P) · Riot Platforms short (G / P) · Cipher Digital short (G / P) · Cleanspark short (G / P) · MARA short (G / P) · Strategy long (G / P) · IonQ short (G / P) · Rigetti Computing short (G / P) *
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⛽
ENERGY, DEFENCE, DEFENSIVES
Oil, defence and staples draw the money

Exxon stock up 2.46%, ConocoPhillips 3.37%, Kinder Morgan 4.20%, Northrop stock up 4.05%, Lockheed 3.65%, Coca-Cola 2.07%; United Airlines stock down 5.14%

Brent rose 3.7% according to market reports, to a four-week high on Middle East supply risks, and energy was the best sector: Kinder MorganLong up 4.20%, ConocoPhillipsLong 3.37%, OccidentalLong 2.82%, ChevronLong 2.59%, ExxonLong 2.46%, after signalling on Friday up to 4.5 billion dollars of extra quarterly profit from refining margins, SLBShort 2.34% and Baker HughesShort 2.39%. Airlines paid for the fuel bill: United AirlinesShort down 5.14%, closing at its low, DeltaShort down 3.47%.

Defence balanced the tech sell-off: Northrop GrummanShort up 4.05%, RTXShort 3.73%, Lockheed MartinShort 3.65%, all near their highs, and GE AerospaceShort 0.59%. Consumer staples took the rest: PepsiCoShort up 2.42%, Coca-ColaLong 2.07%, Procter & GambleLong 1.45%, CostcoLong 1.13%, WalmartLong 0.80%. Among financials Wells FargoShort rose 1.35%, JPMorganShort 1.25%, Berkshire HathawayLong 1.21%, VisaLong 0.72%; Goldman SachsShort fell 1.12% and Bank of AmericaShort 0.91%. In health care the speculative end lost heavily: RecursionLong down 16.71% on a 200 million dollar share sale right after a Sanofi milestone, NovavaxLong 12.17%, ModernaLong 7.82%.

How I read itThe weekend run put our model on this side of the table. In energy it was already long since July: Chevron is up 20.07%, Exxon 14.04%, Petrobras 44.69% and Valero, held since 5 January, 140.02%; Friday's candle opened new longs on ConocoPhillips, Occidental, Kinder Morgan, Coca-Cola, Costco, Walmart, Visa, Mastercard, Berkshire and Eli Lilly. On airlines the short on United is up 16.73% and on Delta 8.54%; on the investment banks Goldman Sachs 15.15% and Bank of America 11.26%. On US defence the model is short: Friday's rally runs against it, and earnings week will say a lot, with Northrop and RTX tomorrow and Lockheed on Thursday.
Exxon Mobil long (G / P) · Chevron long (G / P) · ConocoPhillips long (G / P) · Occidental Petroleum long (G / P) · Kinder Morgan long (G / P) · SLB short (G / P) · Baker Hughes short (G / P) · Petroleo Brasileiro long (G / P) · Valero Energy long (G / P) · Lockheed Martin short (G / P) · RTX short (G / P) · Northrop Grumman short (G / P) · GE Aerospace short (G / P) · Procter & Gamble long (G / P) · Coca-Cola long (G / P) · PepsiCo short (G / P) · Costco Wholesale long (G / P) · Walmart long (G / P) · Eli Lilly long (G / P) · Merck long (G / P) · Pfizer long (G / P) · JPMorgan Chase short (G / P) · Wells Fargo short (G / P) · Bank of America short (G / P) · Goldman Sachs short (G / P) · Visa long (G / P) · Mastercard long (G / P) · Berkshire Hathaway long (G / P) · United Airlines short (G / P) · Delta Air Lines short (G / P) · Recursion Pharmaceuticals long (G / P) · Novavax long (G / P) · Moderna long (G / P) *
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🇮🇹
ITALY
Milan rises with defence, oil and the car makers

Milan: Leonardo stock up 4.73%, Saipem 4.13%, Fincantieri stock up 3.39%, Stellantis stock up 2.80%; Banco BPM down 1.64% and Moncler 2.57%

Milan closed higher: according to market reports the FTSE MIB gained 0.93% to 49,857 points, paying no attention to the US sell-off. The reasons were local. LeonardoShort rose 4.73%, closing near its high, after the European Commission cleared its purchase of Iveco's defence unit; FincantieriShort gained 3.39% in the wake of naval spending. SaipemLong rose 4.13% to its session high with oil, and TenarisLong 2.49%. StellantisShort climbed 2.80% on the French-German agreement to revise EU car rules, which the group welcomed.

In banking, according to market reports, Intesa Sanpaolo raised the cash part of its offer for Monte dei Paschi, while proxy advisers recommended shareholders reject both bids. Monte dei PaschiShort gained 1.16%, Intesa SanpaoloShort 0.94%, UniCreditShort 1.40%, BPERShort 1.17%, MediobancaShort 0.90%; Banco BPMShort lost 1.64%, the only bank in the red. Elsewhere Brunello CucinelliLong rose 4.28%, BuzziShort 3.93%, AmplifonLong 2.91%, UnipolShort 2.80%, NexiShort 2.53%, INWITLong 2.54%, CampariLong 2.07%, EnelShort 1.00%, FerrariShort 1.01%, EniLong 0.70%. On the downside MonclerShort fell 2.57%, Telecom ItaliaShort 1.38% and STMicroelectronicsShort 0.59%, losing far less in Milan than the US chip makers.

How I read itIn Milan the AiTrading67 model is short most of the list, and its oldest positions stay well ahead even on a rising day: Stellantis, short since 8 June, is up 32.34%, Telecom Italia 22.77%, Prysmian 18.99%, Moncler 16.99%, Banco BPM 14.29% and Buzzi 12.96%. On the long side Eni is up 13.04%, Campari 12.28%, INWIT 11.36% and Tenaris 6.69%; Friday's candle opened longs on Brunello Cucinelli and Pirelli and a short on STMicroelectronics. Leonardo and Fincantieri shares are rising against the published shorts, and Leonardo is a whisker from its weekly level. For swing trading in Milan the dates to watch are Eni's results on Friday and the Monte dei Paschi shareholder meeting on the 29th.
Leonardo short (G / P) · Fincantieri short (G / P) · Saipem long (G / P) · Brunello Cucinelli long (G / P) · Buzzi short (G / P) · Amplifon long (G / P) · Stellantis Milano short (G / P) · UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI short (G / P) · Nexi short (G / P) · INWIT long (G / P) · Tenaris long (G / P) · Davide Campari-Milano long (G / P) · UniCredit short (G / P) · BPER Banca short (G / P) · Monte dei Paschi short (G / P) · Intesa Sanpaolo short (G / P) · Banco BPM short (G / P) · Mediobanca short (G / P) · Enel short (G / P) · Ferrari short (G / P) · Eni long (G / P) · Moncler short (G / P) · Telecom Italia short (G / P) · STMicroelectronics short (G / P) · Prysmian short (G / P) · A2A long (G / P) · Pirelli & C. long (G / P) *
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🇪🇺
EUROPE
Frankfurt on defence and cars, London on defensives

Rheinmetall stock up 5.54%, BMW 3.52%, Mercedes 2.87% in Frankfurt; EssilorLuxottica 3.83% and Schneider down 1.82% in Paris; Diageo 1.94%, National Grid 2.01% and AstraZeneca down 1.98% in London

In Frankfurt the DAX closed 0.95% higher according to market reports, on two legs. Defence, with RheinmetallShort up 5.54%, the index's best stock, on a reported investment in lithium and a smelter; and cars, with BMWShort up 3.52%, Mercedes-BenzShort 2.87% and VolkswagenShort 2.78% on the French-German deal. SAPLong slipped 1.01% with US software, InfineonShort only 0.15%; Siemens EnergyShort rose 1.98%, Munich ReLong 0.44%.

In Paris EssilorLuxotticaShort led the CAC 40, up 3.83% at its session high; ThalesShort rose 2.77% and AirbusShort 2.07% with defence and aerospace, while Schneider ElectricShort lost 1.82% on its data-centre exposure. In London the defensives led: National GridLong up 2.01%, British American TobaccoLong 2.08%, DiageoLong 1.94%, UnileverLong 1.03%, BAE SystemsShort 2.59%, GlencoreShort 1.57%, RELXLong 0.97%. AstraZenecaShort fell 1.98% despite a positive opinion from the European regulator on its pandemic vaccine, and LloydsShort 0.94% on talk of a higher bank levy; for BarclaysShort, up 0.06%, the Sunday press reports a cost-cutting plan in its retail network.

How I read itIn Europe our model is short most names, and the widest gains sit in luxury and technology: EssilorLuxottica, short since 8 December, is up 45.27% even after Friday's rise, Infineon 17.70%, Siemens Energy 14.58%, Barclays 12.89%, Schneider 11.36%. On the long side SAP is up 26.34% since 27 July, Munich Re 14.55%, Unilever 7.94%; Friday's candle opened longs on Diageo, National Grid, British American Tobacco, RELX, Compass, Experian, Dassault Systèmes, adidas, BASF, Siemens Healthineers and Air Liquide. The shift into UK defensives is now in the signals too; Rheinmetall and the German car makers are rising against the published shorts.
Rheinmetall short (G / P) · Bayerische Motoren Werke short (G / P) · Mercedes-Benz short (G / P) · Volkswagen AG Pref short (G / P) · Thales short (G / P) · EssilorLuxottica short (G / P) · Airbus short (G / P) · Schneider Electric short (G / P) · SAP long (G / P) · Infineon Technologies short (G / P) · Siemens Energy short (G / P) · Deutsche Bank short (G / P) · Munich Re long (G / P) · National Grid long (G / P) · British American Tobacco long (G / P) · Diageo long (G / P) · Unilever long (G / P) · Glencore short (G / P) · Rio Tinto short (G / P) · AstraZeneca short (G / P) · RELX long (G / P) · Barclays short (G / P) · Lloyds Banking short (G / P) · BAE Systems short (G / P) · L'Oreal long (G / P) · Dassault Systemes long (G / P) · Compass long (G / P) · Experian long (G / P) · adidas long (G / P) · BASF long (G / P) · Siemens Healthineers long (G / P) *
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INDICES
London flips to buy, the other three stay short

European indices: the FTSE MIB ETF rises 1.01%, the DAX ETF 1.00%, the FTSE 100 ETF 0.44%, the CAC 40 ETF 0.40%

On Friday all four European indices rose. The FTSE MIB ETFShort gained 1.01%, closing at its high, the DAXShort ETF 1.00%, the FTSE 100Long ETF 0.44%, the CAC 40Short ETF 0.40%. With the weekly candle the UK basket flipped to buy and now closes 3.75% above its weekly level; the other three stay short, Frankfurt 1.11% below its level, Paris 1.01%, Milan 3.34%.

The model's short is up 4.99% on the French basket, held since 24 August, and 4.18% on the Italian one, since 31 August; on the German one it is at minus 1.26%. In Frankfurt the index rises on the big names: 65% of DAX companies trade above their 200-day average, against 34% of the whole German market. In London the gap is narrower, 66% against 46%.

How I read itThe UK basket is the first of the four to change side, and it is the one with the most defensives. Milan remains the tidiest position on our side, with the stop below the entry price and the first target taken; on Friday the price closed right on the monthly signal's level, on buy since November 2022, which the 30 October close will decide. Frankfurt and Paris sit about one point from their weekly levels: with the daily signal on buy in both, they are the next to watch.
FTSE 100 ETF long (G / P) · CAC 40 ETF short (G / P) · DAX ETF short (G / P) · FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) *
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OUR MODEL
Forty-two signals, nearly all defensive

This week's new buy signals: Europe, consumer staples, utilities and financial services, with Intuit, Diageo and National Grid among the tradable ones

The weekend analysis published 42 new buy signals, confirmed by the close of Friday 16 October, and 22 are tradable. The profile is the mirror image of the tech sell-off: consumer names such as CostcoLong, Coca-ColaLong and WalmartLong, utilities such as FortisLong and National GridLong, financial and data services such as S&P GlobalLong, VisaLong, MastercardLong and CMELong, health care with Eli LillyLong and UnitedHealthLong, energy with ConocoPhillipsLong and OccidentalLong, and above all Europe, with 15 names out of 42.

On Mondays this card lists them in full: below are the 22 tradable ones, with my reading of each. Only one has the daily signal on sell, MercadoLibre.

Instrument
Daily signal
Weekly confirmed
My reading
🇺🇸 INTULong
Intuit
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Top of the US ranking, but it lost 1.52% on Friday with software. Monthly signal against and high volatility: small size.
🇫🇷 DSYLong
Dassault Systemes
conti 28/10
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Monthly signal supportive and a wide margin above the weekly level. Reports on 28 October.
🇬🇧 RELLong
RELX
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 0.97% on Friday and almost 7% on the week. The monthly signal is still against, close to its level.
🇺🇸 MELILong
MercadoLibre
conti 04/11
SELL
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
The only new signal with the daily on sell, and the monthly against: the most fragile setup of the group.
🇺🇸 SPGILong
S&P Global
conti 27/10
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 1.14% on Friday, daily signal supportive. The monthly is against and results land on 27 October.
🇮🇹 BCLong
Brunello Cucinelli
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 4.28% on Friday, among the session's outsized moves: the signal was born on an explosive bar, and I would not chase it.
🇩🇪 ADSLong
adidas
conti 29/10
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Monthly signal supportive and a 10% margin above the weekly level. Reports in ten days.
🇬🇧 CPGLong
Compass
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Monthly signal supportive, results far away. One of the cleanest names in the European group.
🇬🇧 DGELong
Diageo
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 1.94% on Friday, closing near the high, monthly supportive, results far off: the cleanest of the new European names.
🇬🇧 EXPNLong
Experian
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Wide margin above the weekly level; the monthly is against.
🇮🇹 SFL-MILong
Safilo
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Monthly against, results far off. In Milan it is the new signal with the widest margin after Brunello Cucinelli.
🇺🇸 EBAYLong
eBay
conti 28/10
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Down 2.14% on Friday, but the daily stays on buy and the monthly is supportive.
🇺🇸 WMTLong
Walmart
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 0.80% on Friday; the monthly is against, but very close to its level.
🇩🇪 BASLong
BASF
conti 28/10
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 1.16% on Friday, contained volatility, monthly supportive. Reports on 28 October.
🇬🇧 BATSLong
British American Tobacco
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 2.08% on Friday, monthly supportive, results far off.
🇩🇪 SHLLong
Siemens Healthineers
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 1.47% on Friday; the monthly turned to buy in October, still to be confirmed.
🇮🇹 PIRCLong
Pirelli & C.
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
A 6% margin above the weekly level and a supportive monthly signal.
🇺🇸 XLULong
US utilities ETF
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 1.34% on Friday, closing near the high. The monthly is against.
🇬🇧 NGLong
National Grid
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 2.01% on Friday, at the session high. The monthly is against.
🇫🇷 AILong
Air Liquide
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Contained volatility and a supportive monthly: the calmest profile of the group.
🇩🇪 EXH7Long
Consumer Goods Europe
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 0.84% on Friday, closing at the high, thin trading. The monthly is against.
🇺🇸 FTSLong
Fortis
conti 03/11
BUY
week closed 16/10
buy confirmed
born with the 16/10 candle
Up 2.01% on Friday, monthly supportive, a 5.5% margin.
How I read itThis is a defensive cohort, born in the week technology lost almost 8%. The opening call is cautious on 21 of the 22 tradable names, and 12 of the 42 have the monthly signal against them: these are setups for reduced size, and the contained volatility of most of them helps keep stops close. Among the Europeans, Diageo, British American Tobacco and Compass have the monthly signal on their side and results far away. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Intuit long (G / P) · Dassault Systemes long (G / P) · RELX long (G / P) · MercadoLibre long (G / P) · S&P Global long (G / P) · Brunello Cucinelli long (G / P) · adidas long (G / P) · Compass long (G / P) · Diageo long (G / P) · Experian long (G / P) · Safilo long (G / P) · eBay long (G / P) · Walmart long (G / P) · BASF long (G / P) · British American Tobacco long (G / P) · Siemens Healthineers long (G / P) · Pirelli & C. long (G / P) · US utilities ETF long (G / P) · National Grid long (G / P) · Air Liquide long (G / P) · Consumer Goods Europe long (G / P) · Fortis long (G / P) *
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📅
CALENDAR
Netflix tomorrow, then Meta, Tesla and SAP, then Procter & Gamble, Eni and Exxon

This week's earnings: Netflix, GE, RTX and Northrop on Tuesday 20, Meta, Tesla, SAP and IBM on Wednesday 21, Procter & Gamble and Lockheed on Thursday 22, Eni and Exxon on Friday 23

37 companies in our universe report over the next seven days, the busiest week of the quarter. On Tuesday 20 come NetflixShort, GE AerospaceShort, RTXShort, Northrop GrummanShort, Intuitive SurgicalLong, HalliburtonShort, United AirlinesShort and Deutsche BörseLong; on Wednesday 21 MetaLong, TeslaLong, SAPLong, IBMLong, Texas InstrumentsLong, CMELong and Kinder MorganLong; on Thursday 22 Procter & GambleLong, Lockheed MartinShort, BarclaysShort, NebiusShort, Western DigitalShort and HoneywellShort; on Friday 23 EniLong, ExxonLong, SLBShort and American ExpressShort.

Tuesday 20 October

Netflix Short

GE Aerospace Short

RTX Short

Northrop Grumman Short

Intuitive Surgical Long

Halliburton Short

United Airlines Short

Deutsche Boerse Long

Wednesday 21 October

Meta Platforms Long

Tesla Long

SAP Long

IBM Long

Texas Instruments Long

Abbott Laboratories Short

Danaher Long

CME Long

Kinder Morgan Long

AT&T Short

CSX Short

QuantumScape Short

Thursday 22 October

Procter & Gamble Long

Lockheed Martin Short

Nebius Short

Barclays Short

Nokia Short

Western Digital Short

Honeywell International Short

Valero Energy Long

Newmont Short

Spotify Technology Short

Bloom Energy Long

PG&E Short

Banco Bradesco Long

Friday 23 October

Eni Long

Exxon Mobil Long

SLB Short

American Express Short

How I read itOur model goes into earnings short on 21 of 37 names. Meta reaches 21 October up 9.46% and SAP up 26.34%, two of its widest positions in technology; Tesla sits just below the entry. Western Digital is short and up 38.40%, United Airlines 16.73%; Exxon reports on Friday up 14.04% and Eni up 13.04%. Anyone carrying a position into results should know where the weekly level sits, and size it to survive a wide move either way.
Netflix short (G / P) · GE Aerospace short (G / P) · RTX short (G / P) · Northrop Grumman short (G / P) · Intuitive Surgical long (G / P) · Halliburton short (G / P) · United Airlines short (G / P) · Deutsche Boerse long (G / P) · Meta Platforms long (G / P) · Tesla long (G / P) · SAP long (G / P) · IBM long (G / P) · Texas Instruments long (G / P) · Abbott Laboratories short (G / P) · Danaher long (G / P) · CME long (G / P) · Kinder Morgan long (G / P) · AT&T short (G / P) · CSX short (G / P) · QuantumScape short (G / P) · Procter & Gamble long (G / P) · Lockheed Martin short (G / P) · Nebius short (G / P) · Barclays short (G / P) · Nokia short (G / P) · Western Digital short (G / P) · Honeywell International short (G / P) · Valero Energy long (G / P) · Newmont short (G / P) · Spotify Technology short (G / P) · Bloom Energy long (G / P) · PG&E short (G / P) · Banco Bradesco long (G / P) · Eni long (G / P) · Exxon Mobil long (G / P) · SLB short (G / P) · American Express short (G / P) *
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📆
MACRO CALENDAR
The Fed is quiet, China, the UK and Germany speak

This week's economic calendar: Chinese GDP today, UK jobs and German sentiment on Tuesday, UK inflation on Wednesday, flash PMIs on Friday

The macro events of the next seven days that can move the indices, in Central European time. The Fed is in its quiet period ahead of the 27-28 October meeting, and the US week has no first-tier data: the calendar belongs to China, the UK and Germany, and on Friday to the flash PMIs.

Monday 19 October

04:00 · China · Third-quarter GDP, September industrial output and retail sales, out overnight: Chinese demand, which weighs on European luxury, metals and chip stocks medium impact

Tuesday 20 October

08:00 · United Kingdom · Labour market: the unemployment rate, the first of the week's UK releases medium impact

11:00 · Germany · October ZEW analyst sentiment: the month's first survey on the German economy medium impact

Wednesday 21 October

08:00 · United Kingdom · September inflation: the last price figure before the Bank of England on 5 November medium impact

Friday 23 October

09:30 · Germany · October flash PMIs, first in Germany and then in the UK and the US: the month's first reading on manufacturing and services activity medium impact

Further ahead, the central banks

Wednesday 28 October · 19:00 · Fed: rate decision, press conference half an hour later

Thursday 29 October · 14:15 · ECB: rate decision, press conference half an hour later

Friday 30 October · Bank of Japan: rate decision

Thursday 5 November · 13:00 · Bank of England: rate decision

Times are Central European. The calendar can change: central bank dates are those published by the banks themselves.

How I read itA macro release does not change the weekly signal, it tests it. With no first-tier US data, earnings will drive the week, from Netflix on Tuesday to the tech giants on Wednesday. In Europe Wednesday's UK inflation arrives in the week the London basket flipped to buy, and Friday's PMIs touch Frankfurt, where price sits about one point from the weekly level. The row below shows where the model stands on the indices these events touch.
S&P 500 long (G / P) · Invesco QQQ Trust short (G / P) · FTSE 100 ETF long (G / P) · DAX ETF short (G / P) · CAC 40 ETF short (G / P) · FTSE MIB ETF short (G / P) *
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📈
UNITED STATES
One stays long by half a point, the other flips to sell

Technical analysis of SPY and QQQ, the S&P 500 ETF and the Nasdaq ETF: SPY loses 1.11% and keeps its weekly buy, QQQ loses 2.50% and flips to sell

SPYLong, the S&P 500 ETF, lost 1.11% with a candle that opened at the session high and closed below Thursday's low, on 64.4 million shares against an average of 42.0: it sits 2.35% below its all-time high. The daily signal has been on sell since Wednesday; the weekly one stays long, in its twenty-seventh week, with the level only 0.52% below the price. QQQShort, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, lost 2.50% and closed near its low, on 66.9 million shares against 35.1, and the week ended down 5.52%: the weekly signal flipped to sell, and price sits 5.99% below the new level. It is 6.96% below its record.

On targets the two are at opposite stages. SPY has passed all three scale-out windows and is managed with the weekly Inversion Point, far above the entry price. QQQ opens a short from the 707 area, with the stop at the weekly level 6.4% above the price.

How I read itSPY protects a 12.33% gain in its twenty-seventh week, but with half a point of margin the week of tech earnings can decide the trade. QQQ has changed side: technology is half that basket, and on Friday it dragged it down more than twice as much as the broad index. In our US basket only 11% of industrial stocks trade above their 40-week average, against 42% for the whole: a sector weakening on its own, and that is a fact, not a forecast. For our model the direction comes from the weekly signal: long SPY, short QQQ.
S&P 500 long (G / P) · Invesco QQQ Trust short (G / P) *
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The desk's take

The big picture: technology loses the market

On Friday the artificial intelligence sell-off closed the worst week since June for the US indices. It started with the credit that funds data centres and reached chips and software, while money moved into energy, defence and consumer staples. Equity volatility rose by a fifth in a day while Treasury volatility eased: the strain stayed on stocks. Europe rose on defence, cars and defensives, and Milan closed at its session high. Our model turned technology, semiconductors and the Nasdaq 100 to sell, and opened 42 buys that are almost all defensive: the weekend run wrote into the signals the rotation the session had already shown.

What you find here. If you are trying to understand how to manage risk in trading, with stops, break-even stops, trailing and the declaration of stops that have been taken out, or how to read chart patterns (double bottoms, Bollinger bands, the Ichimoku cloud, price action trading), this is the desk's trading journal: published every morning before the US premarket, with our model's position on every instrument mentioned.

Previous editions
16 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: Saipem stock falls 4.69% in Milan, the gold ETF gains 1.79%, Dell stock drops 6.80% and ServiceNow stock jumps 6.14%15 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: Prysmian stock falls 5.51% in Milan, the health care ETF rises 2.53%, the technology ETF drops 2.98%, CoreWeave stock plunges 15.46% and Oracle stock slides 8.83%14 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: Telecom Italia stock gains 2.99% in Milan, the energy ETF rises 1.80%, the health care ETF falls 1.35%, JPMorgan stock slips 0.86% and Applied Materials stock drops 6.69%13 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 2.60%, the energy ETF gains 1.43%, Meta stock rises 3.38%, Micron stock drops 3.88% and Campari stock climbs 2.99% in Milan10 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the European telecoms ETF falls 2.93%, Verizon stock drops 10.14% after the SpaceX deal, Moderna stock gains 14.21% and Fincantieri stock 6.89% in Milan9 October 2026ETF and stock technical analysis: the semiconductor ETF falls 3.35%, the energy ETF gains 2.97% and Eni stock rises 2.66% in MilanView all editions on the tag page →

* Our system. The rows of names at the foot of each card carry our model's position, long or short. Position from the latest published weekly analysis. Levels, targets and the trading plan sit in each instrument's own page. The two letters in brackets lead to the instrument page (G) and the full analysis (P).

Disclaimer. The content on this page is published for educational and informational purposes and reflects the author's personal opinion and technical analysis. It does not constitute financial advice, an investment solicitation, or a personalised recommendation. Trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in substantial loss of the capital invested. Every operating decision rests solely with the reader, who acts independently and in full awareness of that risk. AiTrading67 is not a broker or financial intermediary and is not affiliated with any broker or trading platform.
Sources
1
New Cracks in AI Trade Push Wall Street to Worst Week Since June — WSJ, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
2
U.S. Stocks Fall as Credit Fears Haunt Tech Sector — Dow Jones, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
3
Gartner Warns 80% of Neoclouds Will Cease Independent Operations by 2030 — Benzinga, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
4
Chip Stocks Endure Longest Losing Streak Since 2006 — Benzinga, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
5
Brent Rises Near $110 on Increasing Supply Risks — Trading Economics, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
6
EU Commission clears Leonardo acquisition of Iveco's defence unit — Reuters, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
7
MPS investors should reject twin bids, special dividend, proxy advisers say — Reuters, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
8
Stellantis welcomes France-Germany deal to revise EU auto rules — Reuters, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
9
Rheinmetall said to invest in Rock Tech Lithium and smelter — Bloomberg News via Reuters, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
10
Recursion announces $200M equity offering, Sanofi milestone — Seeking Alpha, 16 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
11
Samsung to use TSMC technology for Nvidia's next-generation memory chips — Reuters, 18 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
12
Oil price today: Hormuz, Ukraine and Russia — CNBC, 18 ottobre 2026
cnbc.com
13
As AI rally wobbles, stock market's spotlight turns to earnings — Reuters, 18 ottobre 2026
tradingview.com
14
Share Talk weekly stock market news review — Share Talk, 18 ottobre 2026
share-talk.com
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